THE RINGMASTER

In Praise Of: Duncan Robinson Comment Count

Ace August 18th, 2020 at 10:30 AM

A series of things worth your time in the absence of (college) sports.

I'm loathe to praise Reggie Miller after his years of terrorizing TNT basketball broadcasts with his inane commentary. I must admit, however, that I felt different about him growing up. In an era when offense moved slow and favored the physical, Miller was a revelation to watch—a rail-thin gunner whose game was predicated on running his defender ragged before quickly firing long jumpers.

The game eventually moved in Miller's direction. I spent my formative years watching Rip Hamilton play a midrange-oriented version of Miller's style. Later, Steph Curry amped up the volume, extended the range, and helped revolutionize the game.

The playoffs began yesterday in the NBA bubble. My Pistons were not invited, to put it kindly, which frees me to watch the NBA the way I prefer: free of rooting interests if I want to be, able to focus on the incredible level of skill, and taking in the matchup chess. (At least, this is what I tell myself when Detroit is bad.)

ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry, aka the shot chart guy, looked at six top storylines heading into the playoffs. One was the zero positive Covid-19 tests inside the bubble. Four others featured Damian Lillard, LeBron James, James Harden, and Jayson Tatum—three established superstars and a burgeoning one, respectively. The other player to get his own section? Why, that'd be Duncan Robinson.

Robinson became the first in the player-tracking era (dating to 2013-14) to take at least 500 catch-and-shoot 3s and make at least 45% of them. This guy is unreal. Just look at this list:

Best FG% on catch-and-shoot 3s (min. 500 attempts)

  • Duncan Robinson (2019-20): 46.2%

  • Klay Thompson (2017-18): 44.4%

  • Klay Thompson (2014-15) 43.7%

  • Stephen Curry (2018-19) 43.7%

  • Klay Thompson (2015-16) 43.6%

There are a lot of reasons to like the Heat as a surprise team in the East, and Robinson is a major one.

I'm biased. You know this. Duncan Robinson went to Michigan. I proclaimed multiple times on the MGoPodcast in his time here that I expected him to shoot 50% from three over a full season, including after the first time I saw him shoot in person at an open media practice heading into his debut season. There's a feeling of pride and, yes, a little vindication while watching Robinson scorch the nets at the game's highest level. Look at this shot chart!

I won't claim I saw this coming, however. I never thought Robinson had the requisite defensive ability to stick in the league, but he's continued to improve at that end to the point he even got subbed in for defensive purposes in a late-game situation—John Beilein, still Cleveland's head coach at the time, was impressed.

“I was watching a clip early in the season, the Heat played somebody we were going to play,” Beilein said in advance of Wednesday’s game between the Cavaliers and Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena. “There were seven seconds to go in the game and they had to get a stop, and [Robinson] was in the lineup. That struck me. I texted him right afterwards. I said, ‘What a long way, man. They got you in the end of the game for defensive purposes.’”

According to basketball-reference, Miami is 4.1 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Robinson on the floor this season. Even if Robinson gets exposed on that end over the course of a playoff series, he's made enough strides to indicate he'll be able to hang in the long term.

As for the historic shooting? Again, it'd be dishonest to say even this aspect of Robinson's game looked like it'd translate so well. He shot a respectable, not incredible, 42% from long range in college. Beilein's offense utilized him as a standstill shooter; there wasn't much else to his repertoire. Now?

Uh, holy shit.

Since joining Miami, Robinson has added the Reggie Miller aspect. In doing so, he's become one of the most enjoyable players to watch in the league, in addition to one of its most lethal offensive weapons.

Robinson led the NBA in the regular season by averaging 3.2 three-point makes per game just on shots before which he took zero dribbles. He needs little space to get off his shot and the Heat have designed much of their offense around the threat of getting him that little space. He may be the league's most exciting player to watch when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, at least while the Splash Brothers are out of commission.

He's also, like Miller before him, getting under the skin of his opponents. Notorious curmudgeon Chris Paul evidently got tired of whatever Robinson was saying and doing earlier this week, prompting an escalating series of events.

The little head rub Butler gives Robinson tells you what you need to know, though Butler also put it more explicitly in the aftermath.

Protect Duncan Robinson at all costs.

Robinson's Heat are the five-seed in the East, though they're -300 betting favorites against the four-seed Indiana Pacers. Game one is this afternoon at 4 pm ET on TNT. While I'd normally hope Miller isn't on the call, it'd be fitting for this one.

Comments

Teeba

August 18th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^

A) I like listening to Reggie call a game, but I also liked listening to Bill Walton call Clippers games, so there's obviously something wrong with me.

B) that shot chart. OMG! It's like a kid figured out the best way to win at a basketball video game and just did that - only 3s and layups

C) When the Heat wear the alternate baby blues, shouldn't we call them the "Cool"?

BarryBadrinath

August 18th, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^

Really happy that Robinson landed on the Heat, they have one of the best player development programs in the league. 

I'm loving the non-stop basketball from 1:00-Midnight. Giving me serious March Madness vibes. I was really sure that I was going to hate bubble basketball without fans, but I've been really impressed with the production value. 

WCHBlog

August 18th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

Man, even if it might have cost Michigan one of Novak/Douglass, I can't help but wonder what things might have looked like if Klay Thompson had picked Michigan instead of Washington State.

bronxblue

August 18th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^

I never thought he'd be able to stick defensively in the NBA to the degree he has, but even in college his maturation as a player over those four years showed immense promise.

I'm really excited to see how the Heat do in these playoffs, as the East looks to be the Bucks and then a lot of teams with deficiencies that could be exploited.

dragonchild

August 18th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^

I remember when the Pacers tormented the Bulls in the '98 playoffs.  They got much closer to knocking out the Bulls than the Jazz ever did.  Reggie was this greased snake slithering through the Bulls' defense, using anyone and everyone as impromptu screens, kiting his defender through a mosh pit of Miller's making.  I'm not a fan thanks to his career in TV but man, he was the player who first got me to appreciate off-ball movement.  The havoc he tirelessly wreaked in half-court stood out even to a wee lad who knew almost nothing about basketball.

I never thought Robinson had the requisite defensive ability to stick in the league

Anyone who claims to have predicted Robinson would be a serviceable defender in the NBA based on his college career is clearly lying (heck, the way he was used in college, anyone who says they predicted his offensive output is lying), but I will give myself a pat on the head for predicting this development somewhat early (citation here):

I don't think Robinson's hit his ceiling on defense.  It's common to think "white sharpshooter = slow" but if he can move around Bam's screen that quickly then there's no reason his feet can't do the same on [defense].

I do want to make one other point about Duncan; his run-and-gun ability was clearly a latent talent that Beilein simply didn't know about, and probably didn't have the time to discover anyway (his offense is complicated enough).  There's a reason why he's suddenly showing up in record books; you could train a thousand players the same way and they wouldn't be able to do what he's doing -- because a thousand guys are doing just that, working hard and not getting comparable results.  Now, yes, Duncan Robinson practiced hard, and practiced a lot.  He was also extremely fortunate to land on the Heat.  But it's not like other catch-and-shoot guys are sitting on their hands.  Turns out he's a special player, and it's an exciting story to see someone blow up this late.

lhglrkwg

August 18th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^

Too bad we couldn't drop this Duncan into the 2018 championship game. Glad to see him tearing it up at the next level. Kind wild that this guy was on a DIII team a few years ago

patrickdolan

August 18th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^

I saw the Pacers play in the ABA finals when I was a kid. My mom was one of Reggie's biggest fans, and we went to games together. The last game we went to, Reggie's final season, the Pacers were up 1 with less than a minute. Someone stole the ball, and as I watched Reggie spot up on the break, I said to Mom, "There it is."

Dagger. Game over. 

So I can't cheer for the Heat.

Still, Duncan Robinson is a great story, and this is nicely done.

NotADuck

August 18th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^

This is going to get me negged but I bet the Pacers finish the Heat in 6 games.  Duncan is the best shooter in the NBA but other than him the Heat have VERY few shooters.  Other than Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro their 3 point shooting is spotty.  To make matters worse, their starting five consists of 4 guys who are average to poor shooters (Jimmy Butler is 24.4% on the season!), then Duncan.

In today's NBA you need shooters all over the court.  The Heat have the best pure shooter in the league but thats about it.

Streetchemist

August 18th, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^

I mean, the Heat beat the Pacers every time this season including a couple blowouts.  You’re not necessarily wrong about what you said but their recent 3 point shooting has been better with Crowder (who now starts). Also, they literally led the NBA in 3P% this season.  I’ll also bring up how the Pacers don’t have any great 3 point shooters in their starting lineup. They have a couple good ones but on low volume. Your formula for today's NBA is shooters all over the place and the Pacers have even less than the Heat in that department but you expect the Pacers to win?  So I’m not sure what you’ve seen from the games that makes you feel like the Pacers easily take this series. 

BLUEinRockford

August 18th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^

Always liked D-Rob's game. Really became a complete player his senior year @ UM. NC game would have been totally different had the refs not called two ticky tack fouls on him followed by Coach B's autobench. I don't think he even scored a single point that game.