About Last Week

Look, I’m not a tactical football genius. I’d be the first admit that. But I worry that Michigan isn’t utilizing its skill players correctly. If nothing else, Saturday made one thing perfectly clear: KRIS JENKINS NEEDS WAY MORE TOUCHES THAN HE IS GETTING.

David Wilcomes

Feed your playmakers, Sherrone.

The Road Ahead

Rutgers (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Virginia Tech, 35-16

Recap: Virginia Tech outgained Rutgers 319-302 (albeit in a less efficient manner) and picked up 18 first downs to 14 for Rutgers, and they held Gavin Wimsatt to 2.9 yards per attempt. But Rutgers had the only thing in the game that really worked for either team: an effective running game. Rutgers ran for 256 yards at 7.5 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns.

This team is as frightening as: Speed bump.

It isn’t going to do anything you don’t generally expect. Take it at the right speed, and everything will be fine. But you won’t take it at the right speed, will you? No sir. You’ll take it somewhere between “just a little too fast” and “HOLY HELL I think I just shattered my coccyx and lost a muffler?” Unless you REALLY screw up, it won’t wreck anything, but you’ll be worried about that little rattling sound for several miles thereafter. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers is finally figuring out how to use Wimsatt’s legs. He’s gained 146 yards on 27 non-sack carries, and Kirk Ciarrocca has taken page from the Denard playbook; he’s done a lot of his damage on designed QB leads with the back operating (quite effectively) as a lead blocker.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Wimsatt’s passing remains… well, I’ll let you be the judge:

If you think you can beat Michigan with a straight running game ⁠— I don’t think Wimsatt is actually doing a lot of reading in the run game ⁠— you better be bringing a Kenneth Walker to the party. And while I like Kyle Monangai, he ain’t Kenneth Walker. Of his three career games against FBS opponents of over 5.2 yards per carry, two have been these last two games against defenses that would be best described as “plummeting airplane noise, explosion noise, siren noise, Undertaker’s entrance music.”

When they play Michigan: Gonna be another game where the opponent’s passing game is “ahhhhhHHHHHHH THROW BUTTON THROW BUTTON THROW BUTTON.”

Next game: @ Michigan, noon, BTN (Rutgers +25.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Y’all ain’t seen a plane around here, have ya?]

Nebraska (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northern Illinois, 35-11

Recap: Okay, new plan.

Despite this column’s insistence last week that Matt Rhule didn’t have any other options, the Jeff Sims Voyage Of The Damned has been placed on hold for the moment, as he has been replaced by ⁠— and I say this with the appropriate level of respect ⁠— the most Nebraska-ass quarterback since Eric Crouch. Heinrich Haarberg is 6’5”, just-thicker-than-a-beanpole skinny, runs very fast in a straight line, and can generally throw a football accurately in a right direction. Most importantly, he had 45 pass attempts and carries combined, and he only turned the ball over once (and even that wasn’t really his fault; he got strip-sacked by a free rusher).

My concerns are twofold. First, while 6.6 yards per attempt and 5.0 yards per carry are fine, they aren’t paradigm-shifting numbers, and they came against a team that lost to Southern Illinois last week. And second, I don’t know if he can survive a full season; he ran into forceable contact repeatedly and does not appear to have ever heard the word “slide” outside of context of the Goo Goo Dolls song that is all the rage on Nebraska air waves this year. Again, that might be viable against NIU but is a recipe for a painful day against a team like Michigan.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: I… I think I like Nebraska’s front seven? They might be legitimately good? Nebraska has 14 sacks on the season, and even excluding sacks they’re only allowing 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. Their fronts are tricky, their pressures are creative, and they have a 330 pound defensive tackle wearing #0. What’s not to like?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska’s ground game was already struggling, and now they’ll be without their best two backs for the rest of the season; Matt Rhule announced this week that both Gabe Ervin, Jr. and Rahmir Johnson are out for the season. So now it’s basically Haarberg, 24-year-old Anthony Grant (who was a work horse last year but hit a serious swoon in the second half of the season), and whatever assorted pinball machine parts might be laying around.

When they play Michigan: Turner Corcoran might be the worst pass blocker starting for any Power 5 team. If Nebraska gets into passing downs, Corcoran versus Derrick Moore might get someone killed.

Next game: vs. Louisiana Tech, 3:30, BTN (Nebraska -19)

 

Minnesota (2-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost at North Carolina, 31-13

Recap: Athan Kaliakmanis might not be That Dude.

For the second time in three games, the Greek Gunslinger was more Plaxico than Pavlichenko: 11/29, 133 yards (4.6 YPA), 0 TDs, 1 INT. Meanwhile, his counterpart Drake Maye completed 29/40 for 414 yards and 2 TDs. The Gophers did pick Maye off twice, though neither was because of excellent coverage.

Fortunately for Minnesota, Michigan is the only opponent on their schedule between now and mid-November with any semblance of a passing game.

This team is as frightening as: Kirkland brand Wisconsin. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota may have found their bell cow; freshman Darius Taylor finished with 138 yards on 22 carries, a week after tallying 193 yards on 33 carries against EMU. Senior Sean Tyler only had 3 carries.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota’s passing woes look even worse when you look at the defenses they’ve played:

• Nebraska gave up 396 passing yards to Colorado at 9.0 YPA, but the Huskers held Minnesota to 196 yards at 4.5 YPA.
• North Carolina gave up the most passing yards per game in the ACC in 2022 and surrendered an average of 314 yards to South Carolina and App State in the first two weeks of the season, and they held Kalaikmanis to 133 yards at 4.6 YPA.
• A week after surrendering 117 yards at 7.8 YPA to Minnesota, Eastern Michigan went out and yielded 340 yards at 8.3 YPA to… /checks notes… UMass. Present-day UMass. Not even “hey they’ve got Marcus Camby and this John Calipari fella seems to know what he’s doing” UMass.

When they play Michigan: Thump thump thumpy thump thump.

Next game: @ Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Minnesota -12)
 

Indiana (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Louisville, 21-14

Recap: Indiana has a quarterback! Probably!

Tayven Jackson went the distance in this one and completed 24/34 passes for 299 yards. As a result, Indiana put up an efficient offensive performance against a Power 5 team since the COVID year.

They still couldn’t run the ball AT ALL ⁠— they finished under 2.2 yards per carry ⁠— and they surrendered a lot of yardage to Louisville, but we’ll take progress we can find it.

This team is as frightening as: Chain Chomp.

Attacks through the air, but only for very short distances and in a pretty predictable manner. Spends most of its time on the ground bouncing around and not really moving anywhere. Good at defending small areas. A lot of barking for some reason. Once you get out ahead of it, you’re fine. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: The downside of Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska collectively looking so bad is that it increases the likelihood of the Indiana game being the Unnecessarily Stupid Game this year. Now, you may be saying to yourself, “those are independent events, so the likelihood of a Stupid Nebraska Game is completely unrelated to the likelihood of a Stupid Indiana Game.” To which I say: shut up, you’re gonna make it worse.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: /glances at Walt Bell

When they play Michigan: Michigan hasn’t lost to Indiana in Ann Arbor since 1967. The beginning of World War I is closer in time to that game than that game is to today.

Next game: vs. Akron, 7:30, BTN (IU -17)
 

Michigan State (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Washington, 41-7

Recap: The good news for Michigan State this week was they that they could get back to focusing solely on what was happening on the football field.

So… let us do precisely that.

What happened on the football field wasn’t technically a crime. It wasn’t a violation of any of the rules ⁠— written or unwritten ⁠— of college football. It wasn’t unsportsmanlike, or even unnecessary. It was just… mean? Is mean the right word? Because it felt mean.

Describing something like this is hard. So here are some numbers.

• This game was 35-0 at halftime.
• Washington nearly tripled Michigan State in total yardage, 713-261. The 713 yards is the most EVER allowed by Michigan State in a single game. Of Michigan State’s 261 yards, 99 came on their final garbage time drive.
• Michael Penix completed 27/35 for 473 yards (13.5 YPA) with 4 TDs and 0 picks despite sitting out the final 19 minutes of play. He had 375 passing yards at halftime.
• Noah Kim, on the other hand, completed 12/31 for 136 yards (4.4 YPA) with 0 TDs and 1 pick. He also fumbled on a thundersack on the opening drive, but for some reason no one noticed?
• Michigan State averaged 2.8 yards per non-sack carry. Washington averaged 5.9 yards per carry. I would say “per non-sack carry,” but Michigan State didn’t record any sacks.
• Boise State and Tulsa put up more yards, yards per play, and points against Washington than did Michigan State… and those teams did so in Seattle.

Turns out numbers are also kinda mean.

This team is as frightening as: Finding out your financial advisor had a significant amount of your investments in TuckCoin. Questionable proposition a couple of weeks ago. Significantly worse proposition today. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: MSU leads the Big Ten with 25 TFLs, and they’re only allowing 4.5 yards per carry (after removing sacks). The defensive front is perfectly functional.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The port side of the Titanic was also perfectly functional, yet people insist the ship had problems.

When they play Michigan: It could go either way. They could be ready to pack it in, or they could come out and make Michigan their yes-they-still-reference-that-movie-thirteen-years-later Thermopylae. It really depends on…

…aw cheezits.

Next game: vs. Maryland, 3:30 p.m., NBC (MSU +6*)

*NOTE: This column expressly does not offer gambling advice, because of both the legal and regulatory implications and the fact that your author sucks at it. BUUUUUUUUUUUT...
 

Purdue (1-2, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Syracuse, 35-20

Recap: Water finds its level, and apparently so do creepy dream-stealing mascot heads.

This was a vintage Purdue performance circa the last decade or so. Passing game: fine! Running game: not fine! Penalties: plentiful! Defense: fine, except for this ONE WEIRD TRICK THAT GIANT DRUMS HATE!

Hudson Card and the passing game were moderately efficient on a crap-ton of throws (32/46 for 322 yards at 7.0 yards per attempt ), but Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy ran for 3.1 yards per carry with a long of 14. Defensively, they held Garrett Schrader to 184 passing yards at 6.6 YPA, and held Syracuse running back LeQuint Allen to a tolerable 4.7 yards per carry. All well and good.

There were just three liiiiiiiiiiittle problems. Quibbles, if you will. First, they accumulated 11 penalties for 127 yards. Second, Card turned the ball over four times, including three fumbles. And third, they allowed Shrader ⁠— a 23-year-old quarterback who has been taking shots like this since 2019, mind you ⁠— to run for a career high 195 yards and 4 touchdowns.

This team is as frightening as: This guy:

None of the individual features is overtly threatening, but taken together it gives off an unmistakable whiff of unease. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Uh… come back to me. I’ll think of something. I swear.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Remember the Big Ten Championship Game where Purdue made six trips to the red zone and only came away with 1 TD and 4 FGs? Well, they came up empty on three different red zone trips in this game. Running the ball: occasionally important.

When they play Michigan: Dude, someone wake up the cornerback room. We finally need them to play some actual football.

Next game: vs. Wisconsin, 7:00 p.m. FRIDAY, FS1 (Purdue +6)
 

Penn State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 30-13

Recap: Penn State won a road Big Ten game by 17 points against a team that doesn’t rhyme with Schmorthwestern. In theory, it’s hard to ding them for that.

But you know us. We can certainly try.

Penn State scored 30 points, but they did so in 15 drives, three of which started in Illinois territory. Penn State forced five turnovers, but “forced” is doing a LOT of work in that sentence. The offensive line had a rough day; they struggled to keep Drew Allar clean, especially up the middle, and Penn State’s running backs only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Whether it was the actual pressure or the Freddie Mercury And David Bowie Pressure, Allar completed under 50% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt and generally looked uncomfortable.

Defensively, Illinois moved the ball some when Luke Altmyer wasn’t playing Worst Monkey In The Middle Partner Ever with assorted Penn State defenders. The two teams ended up roughly equal in yards per play, and Illinois actually gained more first downs. But while the interceptions were generally of the Leroy Jenkins variety, they were into excellent coverage.

This team is as frightening as: Enron. Had a big run in the late 1990’s. Frequently struggled to get power into the lines. Top line numbers look good, but once you dive deeper you get the sneaking suspicion that there is some underlying weaknesses that are just being papered over. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: The game plan of “(1) have the other quarterback chuck the ball directly to our defenders’ chests, (2) ????, (3) PROFIT” seemed a lot less viable against Michigan at about 4:00 Eastern on Saturday than it did on Sunday morning.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State is just not producing explosive plays. They only have 9 plays of 20+ yards on the season, ahead of only Rutgers and Northwestern in the Big Ten.

When they play Michigan: I swear I’m not trying to trying not to reenact the Portlandia “Put A Bird On It” skit when looking at every future game, but I look at this matchup and I say, “Put a Michigan Defensive Tackle Rotation Of Death On It.”

Next game: vs. Iowa, 7:30 p.m., CBS (PSU -14.5)
 

Maryland (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Virginia, 42-14

Recap: For the second week in a row, Maryland went down 14-0 to a significant underdog, then they scored a bazillion straight points in a manner that looks better on the scoreboard than it looked to the eyeballs. When the fourth quarter opened, Virginia was down 21-14 with the ball in the red zone looking to tie it up. Then this happened:

well there’s your problem

All four quarters count, but that’s a total of 10 points worth of lead entering the fourth quarter against Charlotte and Virginia. Fortunately they have a get-right game this weekend.

This team is as frightening as: The risk of E. Coli poisoning from leftover pizza that has been sitting on the counter for six hours. I don’t know if I’m vastly underestimating or overestimating the risk, but it’s definitely one of the two. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Maryland currently leads the Big Ten in third down conversion percentage at nearly 54%

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland has had some massive coverage busts in the last two weeks. This was a 48-yard touchdown on the opening drive two weeks ago against Charlotte. Note the absence of Terps on the screen:

This ball against Virginia was 10 yards underthrown but still resulted in a 50 yard gain. There are eight Terps on the screen, which is BETTER, but none are on the left-most third of the screen, which remains problematic:

And this was a drop, but should have been a walk-in 55-yard touchdown:

When they play Michigan: Go ahead and spot Michigan 14 plz.

Next game: @ Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., NBC (Maryland -6)
 

Ohio State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Kentucky, 63-10.

Recap: Ohio State finally looked like Ohio State offensively. Kyle McCord averaged 13.8 yards per pass, the running game finally got loose for 6.2 yards per carry, and the Buckeyes didn’t punt until the second half (after already posting 42 points).

SIDE NOTE: I know setting a G5 schedule is probably hard, but whoever at Western Kentucly decided to schedule back to back games against FCS doormat Houston Christian and OHIO STATE might want to rethink some things. Last year Houston Christian went 2-9 and finished last in the Southland Conference. They lost to UT Martin this week 66-7. Last year Ohio State was a field goal away from a national championship. You cannot play those teams in consecutive games. It reminds me of the prank from The Office where Jim kept adding nickels to the receiver of Dwight’s phone slowly over time to get him used to the weight, and then removed them all, causing Dwight to hit himself in the face. Maybe ramp up a little more gently next time, fellas/ladies.

This team is as frightening as: The F-35.

Super-modern offensive capabilities. Packed with weapons. Shockingly expensive given the recent returns. Under ideal conditions, is able to obliterate any older or less advanced opponents without breaking a sweat (though they do struggle with adverse weather). But do people want to talk about THAT stuff? Nooooooooo. All they ever want to talk about is the HANDFUL OF TIMES it stops working exactly right, and when that happens, everyone just wants to scrap the whole program. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Marvin Harrison, Jr. seems intent on playing football this season, which is bad. He should not do that.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Marvin Harrison Jr. does not play safety.

When they play Michigan: Ask me again after this weekend, because Notre Dame will serve as a pretty dang good early season proxy for what a Michigan matchup might look like. ND’s running game stylistically looks a lot like Michigan’s non-lighting-downs-on-fire-with-outside-zone running game, with lots of pulling linemen, counters, pin-and-pull, etc. They also have a quarterback who can punish overloaded boxes and Cover 0 or Cover Lathan Ransom (which is effectively Cover 0).

Next game: @ Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., NBC (OSU -3)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

East Carolina (0-3, 0-0 AAC)

Last week: Lost to Appalachian State, 43-28

Recap: I mean, they were outgained 465-240, but they hung in there for almost three quarters? Plus they’re probably gonna get in the win column this week?

Eh, this is a hard sell, but that’s okay. Because we no longer need to try to pretend ECU is any good…

Next game: vs. Gardner-Webb, 6:00 p.m., ESPN+

UNLV (2-1, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat Vanderbilt, 40-37

Recap: …BECAUSE NOW WE CAN PRETEND UNLV IS GOOD.

Vanderbilt, a POWER 5 TEAM, mind you, learned a hard lesson. You can’t just walk into Hard Rock Bellagio Crazy Horse Too Twenty-Seven Dollar Drink Stadium and expect to walk out with a win. If you haven’t seen it, I strongly encourage you to take five minutes and watch the last few minutes of this one:

Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line. Never leave Ricky White open down the field when you’re trying to avoid a hilarious upset.

Now let us begin the most Quixotic of all of or various Quixotic schticks:

IT’S TIME FOR BOWL QUEST: LAS VEGAS

Next game: @ UTEP, 9:00 p.m., ESPN+ (UNLV -2.5)