About Last Week

He is the one. The one who was prophesized by Fred Jackson. [Barron]

The Road Ahead

Iowa (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 27-10

Recap: As a result of a series of decisions I have made in my life ⁠— some good, some bad, some incomprehensible ⁠— I watched this game. The whole thing. It’s fine, really. I acknowledge my role in this. I place no blame, and I ask for no sympathy.

I don’t know what Iowa football is made of. It’s some bizarre combination of the Saw franchise-style torture porn, distilled Stockholm Syndrome, and whatever metal the One Ring from the Lord of the Rings was made from. One cannot look away, even though one knows this isn’t healthy. But despite its general stupidity and failure to meet even the basic standards of objectively mediocre football, Iowa will, several times per game, do something that will make you sit up and clap like a sea lion offered a mackerel. This game was no different; they score two defensive touchdowns on Rutgers gifts, and doinked in a field goal to hit the historically low Over of 34.5. And I clapped. Oh how I clapped. Mackerel, please.

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The brain is a funny machine. I spent the noon window lamenting the stuck-in-the-mud Michigan offense that only generated 34 offensive points and 463 yards at 7.0 yards per play. I then spent my evening marveling at the efficiency and, dare I say, explosiveness of the Iowa offense. A 42-yard pass play, mostly through the air! A drive featuring plays of 21, 11, and 20 yards in quick succession! Three consecutive drives that covered a combined 204 yards!

Then after the game I looked at the box score: 13 offensive points, 277 yards, 5.0 yards per play.

I fear I have been KirkPilled.

This team is as frightening as: Once more, for old times’ sake.

Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Great, it’s not Night Kinnick. Night Kinnick FEELS worse. But Day Kinnick is just as evil:

In Iowa's last 6 home games against AP top-5 foes:
2008 vs. 3. Penn State, W 24-23
2010 vs. 5. Michigan State, W 37-6
2016 vs. 2. Michigan, W 14-13
2017 vs. 4. Penn State, L 21-19
2017 vs. 3. Ohio State, W 55-24
2021 vs. 4. Penn State, W 23-20

This week, No. 4 Michigan

— Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) September 26, 2022

Iowa is 5-1 in their last 6 home games against Top 5 teams, and only two of those games were night games. And we get Gus Johnson on the call. And Kirk Ferentz CLEARLY hasn’t used his one “remember and apply the lessons of the last 30 years of collective college football experience” card yet this season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Iowa is averaging 5.0 yards per target to their wide receivers. And with Keagan Johnson, one of the only two 4-star receivers on Iowa’s roster ⁠— missing from the depth chart this week, “Wide Receivers” will continue to mean “Arlan Bruce.” In the SDSU, Iowa State, and Rutgers games combined, Bruce had 21 targets. The rest of the receiving corps had a combined 6.

When they play Michigan: Hnnngggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg.

This week: vs. Michigan, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (Iowa +10.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Significantly better offenses. Okay, not right away… but eventually]

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Indiana (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Cincinnati, 45-24

Indiana

Recap: This is not the Cincinnati from last year. But this is also very much not the Indiana from two years ago.

The Bearcats outgained Indiana by 2.3 yards per play, which is typically fatal. Indiana held tough on the ground, allowing only 40 rushing yards at 1.3 yards per carry (just under 2 YPC excluding sacks), though they allowed Cincinnati to throw for over 350 yards at nearly 9 yards per attempt.

Offensively, Indiana nearly reached 350 yards of total offense, but they needed 104 offensive plays to do so. As a team, they continue to run a LOT of plays; they’re averaging 84 plays per game, and that number is over 90 in games against FBS opponents. Because if there’s one thing the world needs in these trying times, it’s more Indiana offensive plays.

This team is as frightening as: Getting on a helicopter without ducking. Yes, you know you don’t have to duck. But you still duck. Because you never know. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Indiana has made the most field goals (8) of anyone in the conference. So, that’s something?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana just can’t run the ball. They’re averaging 2.2 yards per carry against FBS teams, and more than 20% of their rushing yards from those three games came from one Shaun Shivers run. In related news, Indiana continues to give up way too many negative plays; they’re last in the Big Ten at 7 TFLs allowed per game.

When they play Michigan: Tom Allen will do something really aggravating.

This week: @ Nebraska, 7:30 p.m., BTN (IU +4.5)

 

 

Penn State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Central Michigan, 33-14

Recap: A bit of a Big Game Hangover, perhaps, but Penn State didn’t look outstanding this week. They scored five touchdowns, but their scoring drives were of 59, 52, 34, 15, and 7 yards, capitalizing on Central Michigan’s four turnovers. Penn State only averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The rushing numbers were better, though not overwhelming; Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton combined for 6.1 yards per carry against a surprisingly stout CMU run defense.

This team is as frightening as: That nagging suspicion that someone has spent two years lulling you into a false sense of security. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Penn State gets a reeeeeeeeally gentle ramp-up to this game. Following CMU they get Northwestern, then a bye, then Michigan.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: /looks at Michigan’s six week ramp-up to Penn State/

Yeah, scratch that last complaint.

When they play Michigan: One matchup to watch is Chop Robinson vs. Trente Jones. Robinson is PFF’s highest graded edge rusher through four weeks, and Jones has given up a few oopsies already. Robinson will be an upgrade from anyone Jones has seen, even on Iowa’s quality DL.

This week: vs. Northwestern, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (PSU -25.5)

 

Michigan State (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 34-7

Goldy finished with 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown

Recap: Many folks, myself included, had a little chuckle about Michigan State putting the score of the Michigan game on their Peach Bowl rings. We got our Mean Girls “you’re so obsessed with me” jabs about winning a New Years Six Bowl and using it to celebrate a win from Week 9. But, in hindsight, that may have been more prophetic than Michigan State anticipated. In their seven Power 5 games since their win over Michigan last year, Michigan State has gotten throttled four times by a combined 98 points… and that 98 is generous, as each of Ohio State, Washington and Minnesota let off the gas considerably after generating huge leads.

The first three of those were pretty easy to explain away; Purdue was a trap game on the road a week after a program-defining win. Ohio State was Ohio State. Washington was a West Coast night game. But this game had so many red flags that it’s hard to explain without a healthy dose of “maybe this team just isn’t very good.”

• Minnesota outgained Michigan State 312-45 in the first half, and was outgaining them 508-165 before a 75 yard Defeat With Dignity drive in the last 90 seconds. Michigan State gained 1 yard in the first quarter.
• Tanner Morgan was 23 of 26 for 268 yards and a TD. For the second week in a row, the opposing quarterback was over 200 yards passing at halftime.
• Michigan State was down 14-0 before they ran their fourth offensive play. In the last two weeks, they have run nine offensive plays total when they weren’t trailing by double digits.
• Minnesota didn’t punt once.
• Michigan State’s running backs gained 36 yards on 10 carries with a long of 9. This was a week after Colorado’s lead backs ran for 125 yards on 18 carries (6.9 YPC) against Minnesota. Colorado is possibly the worst Power 5 offense in the country that doesn't rhyme with schmiowa.
• After a solid game against Washington, Payton Thorne regressed to 5.5 yards per attempt and 3 turnovers (2 INTs and a red zone fumble).
• For the second week in a row, MSU didn’t register a sack.

For me, the most glaring part was that PJ Fleck was offered a free Hail Mary from the MSU 44-yard line at the end of the first half after the refs put one second back on the clock. Fleck politely declined and took a knee. Do you know how disrespectful that is? Do you know how disrespectful it is to decline a free shot at points with only a 17-0 lead on the road against a conference opponent on the theory that, “we’ve probably got enough of those already?” To declare in front of God and Kevin Warren that, “nah, this team ain’t it?”

For those keeping score at home, through 24 games as MSU’s head coach, Mel Tucker has lost 9 games by 11+ points. In his 51 games as Michigan’s head coach, Brady Hoke lost 10 total games by 11+ points.

This team is as frightening as: Circus clowns. There is no objective reason to find them scary, as their entire raison d'être seems to be to bring happiness to others at their own expense through their hilarious antics and assorted hijinks. But dammit who would invite clowns over to your house to hang out for four hours AT NIGHT? Fear Level = 7

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State can’t run the ball, but they have an offensive coordinator who thinks 3rd and 4 is a running down. They can’t defend against the pass for shit, but they have a defensive coordinator who thinks teams are going to ignore that and try to run the ball. At the moment, they can’t Jimmys or Joes OR X’s or O’s.

Michigan should worry about: Gee, a Michigan State team whose season goals have been reduced to “Beat Michigan?” What could POSSIBLY go wrong in this new and totally unprecedented scenario?

When they play Michigan: Maybe this is just me, but while this game is unnerving enough when you expect it to be a close, competitive, knock-down-drag-out like 2015 or 2021, it is somehow more unnerving when Michigan is expected to roll, a la 2017 or 2020.

This week: @ Maryland, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (MSU +7.5)

 

Rutgers (3-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 27-10

Recap: I already wrote about this game. You can’t make me do it again.

…

Aren’t you going to say something?

…

Really? Just going to leave me hanging here?

I’m not going to take the blame for this. You have free will. Exercise it.

Okay, fine, I’ll do it. I know that’s what you want.

No way, pal. This one is on you. You put yourself in this position. No one is holding you here.

Okay. Fine. It’s on me. I admit it. I want to write about Iowa/Rutgers a second time.

Sicko.

I have a problem.

SPEAKING OF PROBLEMS, hooooooooooooooly shit Rutgers has a quarterback problem. With Noah Vedral and Gavin Wimsatt still hurt, Rutgers is rolling with Evan Simon with a sprinkle of Johnny Langan as a run package changeup. Simon got to 300 yards in this game, but it took him 49 attempts to get there and threw two bad interceptions along the way. He also had some bad, bad misses, and probably should have ended with at least one or two more picks. In total, he’s at 5.4 YPA against FBS teams, dead last among Big Ten QBs with at least a dozen pass attempts. Coming out of a game thinking “I would probably rather have Spencer Petras” is a hell of a Come-to-Football-Jesus moment.

Defensively, Rutgers played Iowa, and therefore we can’t say much of anything. That said, they allowed Spencer Petras to throw for 8.7 yards per attempt, and allowed Sam LaPorta to beat them on a go route. I expected the secondary to be the strength of their defense this year, but their pass defense on the perimeter looks soft.

This does not appear to be the "step forward into mediocrity" we were looking for this year.

This team is as frightening as: Standing behind a miniature horse. Probably won’t kick you, but really really wants to kick you, and his hooves are approximately at groin height. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: I mean… it’s a road game?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Oh this is such a bad matchup for Rutgers’ offense. Just so, so bad.

When they play Michigan: Rutgers tried the “Red Guy Hides in Red End Zone” trick on the opening kickoff against Iowa. PLEASE do not fall for this trick.

 

You are overestimating the sneakiness

This week: @ Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +41)

 

Nebraska (1-3, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap:

We interrupt this dumbass article with an important update from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – Flat Middle Part Division:

While an advisory was issued last week, we now have indisputable evidence that Nebraska football is, indeed, afflicted with a yet-undetermined but highly contagious ailment. This lastest confirmation comes from Oklahoma, where after exposure to Nebraska football, the #6 Oklahoma Sooners fell unexpectedly at home to Kansas State, an unranked 13-point underdog who lost to Tulane the week before.

We know little about how this illness ⁠— tentatively named HuSK-22 ⁠— works, or how it spreads. Here’s what we do know: the incubation period is short, with exposed teams almost uniformly displaying symptoms within one week. It seems to attack a team’s immune system, rendering afflicted teams unable to fight off even routine offensive plays. Symptoms can last weeks or months; Northwestern football still remains in rough shape, losing to Miami (Ohio) this week. Other symptoms include bleeding from the eyes and a sense of impending doom.

(PLEASE NOTE: there is NO EVIDENCE to support the Internet conspiracy theory that this disease was somehow cooked up as a biological weapon in an Irish laboratory as punishment for exposing the nation of Ireland to Northwestern/Nebraska. Though… would you blame them? I dunno. I’m just asking questions.)

This team is as frightening as: Slow moving zombies. Yes, they’re infectious. But they are also slow and easily fooled by misdirection. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Casey Thompson has a strong Taulia Tagovialoa vibe, and we saw how that went.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska, seemingly aware of their predicament, has been practicing proper social distancing from ball-carriers all season.

When they play Michigan: Forfeit this one. Seriously. It’s better to lose one and have a chance to win the last two.

This week: vs Indiana, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska -4.5)

 

Illinois (3-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Chattanooga, 31-0

A Chattanooga Choo Choo

Recap: Tommy DeVito threw for 332 yards, the first Illini quarterback to throw for 300 yards since Brandon Peters put 369 yards on Michigan State in 2019.

Remember that game? That was a fun game.

Aaaaaaanyway, there probably isn’t much to take away from a game against Chattanooga, who is a decent FCS team but an FCS team nonetheless. I would have expected Illinois to use the opportunity to lighten Chase Brown’s load, but they still gave him 20 carries, more than half of which came after Illinois grabbed a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter. Brown is up to 95 carries on the year and 443 carries for his career.

This team is as frightening as: The best darn college team in the state of Illinois. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Zombie Chase Brown will still rush for 4.8 yards per carry against Michigan.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Their success in this game notwithstanding, Illinois can’t throw the ball efficiently. Against FBS teams they’re averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and less than 9.5 yards per completion.

When they play Michigan: Illinois is a bit of a chaos team; they have turned the ball over 9 times (2nd most in the Big Ten after Northwestern) and have fumbled the ball 9 times (leading the Big Ten), but they have also gained 9 turnovers from their opponents (tied for the most in the Big Ten). They have 6 interceptions through 4 games after grabbing only 9 all of last year. Hold onto football plz.

This week: @ Wisconsin, noon, BTN (Illinois +8)

 

Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wisconsin, 52-21

Recap: This game was over before it began. But they decided, for whatever reason, to begin it anyway. And then it was 28-0 less than two minutes into the second quarter, at which point it really was over. But they decided, FOR WHATEVER REASON, to play the last 42 minutes.

So, when you read about olde timey football, where the record books say that Michigan beat Sandusky Technical Hog College 74-0 in a 37-minute game… it kinda makes sense.

This team is as frightening as: When your boss emails you a meeting invitation that is just titled “Discussion.” Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: The average fan might not be able to tell, but once you dive deep into the analytics and really break down the X’s and O’s, they start to appear like an unstoppable, unslowable, unkillable fire-breathing Lovecraftian offensive monster hell-bent on rendering to ashes all that you hold dear.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I mean, I guess they looked like an unstoppable, unslowable, unkillable fire-breathing Lovecraftian offensive monster hell-bent on rendering to ashes all that you hold dear last year, too?

When they play Michigan: Please don’t render to ashes all that that I hold dear? I have grown quite fond of all that I hold dear.

This week: vs. Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (OSU -41)

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (0-4, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Sacramento State, 41-10

Rock Bottom

Recap: I would call this rock bottom, but Colorado State has a big ol’ pile of dynamite, and seems adamant about going deeper.

Sacramento is a good ⁠— not great ⁠— FCS team, and they were a slight favorite entering this game to the few sports books who would entertain such a degenerate wager. And sure, the yards-per-play numbers were relatively even, but the points… oh, no, the points were most uneven. Sacramento State got most of the points. Colorado State got very few of the points.

If you want a silver lining, I can give you three. First, Colorado State put up 5 yards per play, their best effort on the year. Second, they only allowed two sacks, by FAR their best effort of the year. And third, they were almost certainly not the most embarrassing part of Michigan’s embarrassing non-conference schedule this week, because, well…

This week: Bye

 

Hawai’i (1-4, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Lost at New Mexico State, 45-26

 

Rock Bottom

Recap: …yeah.

New Mexico State is terrible. Just awful. They were 2-10 last year with wins over South Carolina State and UMass. They haven’t won more than three games in a season since 2017. They entered this game ranked #129 out of 131 FBS teams in SP+. They would have been a 53-point SP+ underdog to Michigan on a neutral field this week. They lost to Wisconsin last week 66-7, which translates to a 90-point transitive loss to Ohio State.

And they bodied ⁠— BODIED ⁠— Hawai’i this week.

The Aggies or Cowpokes or whatever outgained the Rainbow Warriors by 1.9 yards per play. They rushed for 357 yards at nearly 8 yards per carry. They led 42-10 midway through the third quarter before mercifully backing off.

Things are very, very bad.

This week: Bye

 

UConn (1-4)

Last week: Lost at NC State, 41-10

Recap: Compared to the shitshows referenced above, UConn took just regular beating. A standard whooping. They lost their best offensive player, Nathan Carter, to a separated shoulder suffered against Michigan, and they still can’t throw the ball even a little bit, so the offense only managed 160 yards at 3.4 yards per play, though they did manage a respectable 4.6 yards per carry (sack-adjusted). They also ‘held’ NC State to 6.2 yards per play.

After this week’s inevitable throttling, though, UConn’s schedule eases up a bit, and they have a plausible shot at a win or two over the likes of FIU, Ball State, Boston College, UMass, Liberty, or Army.

This week: vs. Fresno State, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN (UConn +24)