Greetings! No, your eyes do not deceive you. We were gonna be done for the season, because the season was done with us. But then, THAT THING THAT HAPPENED DEFINITELY ACTUALLY HAPPENED, and so now, we have a brand new set of opponents and potential opponents. So, hey, let’s do this.

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About Last Week

Football is a game of statistics. Yards per carry and line yards and yards after contact and return yards. Every movement of the football on the field must be accounted for. On one of the coolest, best executed plays of the season, Michael Barrett was credited with a -2 yard kickoff return on a play that yielded a touchdown. Such is the nature of the game. The numbers must document where the ball went. But they do not describe its journey.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Things get real in a big damn hurry.]

The statistics say that Michigan dominated that football game on Saturday. All your fancy stats like EPA and net yards per play and success rate make clear that, if anything, the game was not even as close as the score would indicate. You don’t have to go too deeply into the box score to realize, “yeah, this was a beat-down.” But here’s what the numbers catalog, but could never properly describe.

Linebackers just mailing it in pic.twitter.com/vWlUpqbcV9

— Due# (@JDue51) November 28, 2021

To be clear… THAT’S NOT THE LAST TOUCHDOWN. That’s not the one Ohio State allowed Michigan to score to get the ball back. This is Haskins fourth touchdown, with over 9 minutes left in a one-score game. Ohio State, the #2 team in the country riding a 21-game winning streak against ranked conference opponents, quit. In front of God and recruits and damn near everybody, Michigan made their ass quit. Sure they were confused and rattled and borderline panic-stricken from the opening kick. But you can play hard in the wrong direction. Nebraska, bless their hearts, play hard in the wrong direction. This wasn’t that. Ohio State spent most of the day being in the wrong spot, but eventually, on the few occasions Michigan said, “THIS is the spot, meet me here,” Ohio State simply did not want to be there.

I think we’ve found the Michigan/Ohio State equivalent of the Moe Wagner/Nick Ward video. pic.twitter.com/NVUQvR4cJ6

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) November 29, 2021

And I can’t blame them.

The Suddenly Extant Road Ahead

Iowa (10-2, 7-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Nebraska, 28-21

Season Recap: Like a less dynamic, less interesting member of the Cicada family, Iowa emerged from its cyclical hibernation in the middle of the Big Ten West standings to claim its periodic, if fleeting, crown. And they did so in the most Iowa way imaginable; they held out their hands towards their opponents in a firm but non-confrontational manner that said, “you’re supposed to give me that ball,” and their opponents, caught off guard by the request and the associated Midwest Niceness, obliged.

Iowa beat Iowa State by winning the turnover margin 4-0 despite putting up 173 yards at 2.9 yards per play. They beat Maryland by winning the turnover margin 7(!!!)-0. They beat Penn State by 3 points by winning the turnover margin 4-1 (with an assist from Sean Clifford’s ribs and James Franklin’s refusal to be prepared with any sort of Plan B at quarterback). They beat Northwestern 17-12 by winning the turnover margin 3-0. They beat Illinois by scoring one offensive touchdown. They beat Illinois by scoring one offensive touchdown despite trailing 21-6 late in the 3rd quarter.

Sure, their defense is quite good. But in their final seven games, they scored a total of eleven offensive touchdowns. And their crossover games were Indiana, October Maryland, and Clifford-less Penn State. So… here they are.

Last time they played Michigan: Michigan won a Shih-Tzu-humping-a-throw-pillow of a game in 2019 by a score of 10-3. Neither team cracked 300 yards of offense.

Overall, Michigan is 42-15-4 all-time against the Hawkeyes. But this will be a game without modern precedent, as Michigan has never faced an offensively-challenged Iowa team in a late season night game while Michigan was a double-digit favorite and ranked #2 in the country and with a playoff spot on the line. Nope. Nothing similar to compare this to.

This team is as frightening as: A “wet paint” sign on a wall. It poses exactly one threat, and avoiding that threat is entirely within your control. But people still touch the paint. Because how else would you find out if the paint was ACTUALLY wet.  Fear Level = 7

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The offense finished the regular season averaging 4.6 yards per play, a cool #121 in the nation (behind Northwestern and Washington, among 118 others), and 3.3 yards per carry, good for #113 in the country.

Michigan should worry about: We know that the typical strain of Kinnick is not transmissible outside of Iowa City. But if it mutates…

Next game: vs. Michigan, 8:00 p.m., FOX (Iowa +10.5)

Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC)

Last week: Won at Georgia Tech, 45-0

Season Recap: One of my COVID projects was getting my shit in order. I rolled those random 401K’s from old jobs over into an IRA, I made a spreadsheet with all of our account numbers, login info, passwords, and whatnot, I acquired sufficient life insurance, I put all the old tax returns in a folder, etc. Part of my thinking, other than just being a responsible adult, was, “well, if I get die of COVID or get hit by a bus, at least my affairs will be in order.”

This section is kinda like that. It’s good information to have, but God help us if it is actually needed.

Georgia has been a goddang anaconda all season. They are surrendering fewer than 3.7 yards per play, the best number nationally since 2011 Alabama. They have allowed 83 points… total. 14 of those points were defensive scores by their opponents, and 38 points were scored in the fourth quarter of games that had long since been decided.

Their offense is fine. No, scratch that. The offense is really good. They’re #3 in the country at over 7.0 yards per play, and they’re in the Top 10 in both yards per carry and yards per pass attempt. They’re scoring almost 41 points per game. It’s just that, compared to the defense, the offense looks mortal. Not *regular* mortal, mind you. More like a REALLY STRONG mortal. Like, say, this mortal:

That’s Jordan Davis. He is a terrifying human being. He’s 6’6”, 340 pounds. He can run like a linebacker. They also have Nakobe Dean, who is basically Devin Bush. They also have Lewis Cine. And Adam Anderson. And so many other dudes.

Last time they played Michigan: Georgia defeated Michigan 15-7. In 1965.

This team is as frightening as: As frightening as we thought Ohio State was. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: [did you look at the picture above]

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This probably won’t be relevant unless Michigan (a) beats Iowa, and (b) wins the CFP semifinal. And there are worse scenarios than “13-1 with a puncher’s chance at a National Championship.”

Next game: vs. Alabama, 4:00 p.m., CBS (Georgia -6.5)

 

 

Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)

Last week: Won at Auburn, 24-22

Season Recap:

The Tide are 11-1 with a single 3-point loss on the road at one of the rowdiest venues in college football, College Station. And Alabama fans probably see this season as an abject failure. A complete collapse in the basic structures of Tide football. The kind of thing that has message board firing assistants and exiling starters to Elba or Louisiana-Monroe. Heavy is the head that wears the crown, PAAAAAWL.

That said, I think you can see their point a little bit? After all, the resume doesn’t have that usual Bama shine. Their season opener against Miami lost plenty of luster. They beat 6-6 Florida by 2 points. They beat 6-6 LSU by 6 points. They beat Arkansas by 7 points. And they just needed 4 overtimes to dispatch a 6-6 Auburn team in the Iron Bowl.

That said, Alabama is still #3 in SP+, with the second-best offense in the country and the Heisman frontrunner under/behind center.

Last time they played Michigan: Michigan kinda sorta maybe outplayed Alabama for about three quarters in the 2020 Citrus Bowl before losing 35-16. They may have actually won the game if Shea Patterson could have hit a single deep ball to the many, many open receivers, but alas. Overall, Michigan is 2-3 against the Tide (and 0-2 against Saban’s machine).

This team is as frightening as: Mario when the invincibility star wears off. Not nearly as terrifying, but still the most powerful thing on the screen most of the time. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Will Anderson would be the best edge defender Michigan’s tackles have faced this year… and that MIGHT include the guys they face in practice.

(Please don’t tell Aidan or David I said that. Please.)

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Auburn, which hadn’t sacked an opposing Power 5 quarterback more than 4 times in any game and didn’t get to Sean Clifford a single time, sacked Bryce Young seven times and generally dominated Alabama’s offensive tackles. Alabama has allowed 35 sacks this season, including 28 in 8 conference games. And Michigan has a couple of guys who can, as they say, get after it.

Next game: vs. Georgia, 4:00 p.m., CBS (Bama +6.5)

Cincinnati (12-0, 8-0 AAC)

Last week: Won at East Carolina, 35-13

Cincinnati in a big bowl.

Season Recap: It’s finally going to happen. A Group of Five team is probably going to make the playoff. And we figured out what it takes:

• Be from the sixth best conference.
• Start the year in the Top 10 on the strength of a couple of really good years.
• Go undefeated, winning most of your games by double-digits.
• Schedule ⁠— and beat ⁠— a Top-10 team, preferably a Top-5 team, preferably on the road, and preferably another team in consideration for the same spot.
  • NOTE: scheduling a preseason Top 10 team is NOT sufficient. They have to be in the Top 10 at the end of the year, despite a G5 loss on their resume.
• Hope that the other nine teams in the preseason Top 10 combine for 23 losses, but the team you scheduled can suffer only one of those losses, to you.

Then maybe… MAYBE… you’ll have a shot.

…

Just don’t lose to Houston.

Last time they played Michigan: The two teams have only faced off once. Michigan was Luke Fickell’s second opponent (and first FBS opponent) when he took over the Bearcats in 2017. Michigan won comfortably, 36-14.

HOT TAKE: both teams have improved significantly since 2017.

This team is as frightening as: Wisconsin with a quarterback. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: Cincinnati is a really balanced. They are one of only two teams that are ranked in the top 20 nationally in yards per pass, yards per carry, yards per pass allowed, and yards per carry allowed. The other? Georgia.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Cincinnati struggled with 3-8 Navy, 6-6 Tulsa, and 2-10 Indiana (albeit prior to their full implosion). They also got Notre Dame when Notre Dame was in full-on Figuring It Out mode. Plus Michigan is 2-0 all-time against Luke Fickell.

Next game: vs. Houston, 4:00 p.m., ABC (UC -10.5)

Notre Dame (11-1)

Last week: Won at Stanford, 45-14

Season Recap: Notre Dame had a rickety first half of the season. They struggled with FSU, Toledo, Purdue, and Virginia Tech. They beat Wisconsin by a bunch, but they trailed in the 4th quarter before Graham Mertz went Full Graham Mertz. And they lost the above-referenced Cincinnati game by 11, and the game didn’t feel that close (SP+ had the adjusted margin at 20 points, with Cincinnati rocking a cool 99.1% win percentage).

But Notre Dame kinda pulled things together. They cruised to comfortable wins over USC, Navy, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Stanford. Hardly a Murderer’s Row, that, but it looks like Brian Kelly straightened things out, and has everything lined up for a push for the…

/places finger to earpiece

…oh. I see.

Last time they played Michigan: ‘Twas truly a game of firsts and lasts. It was the first Fool Hurdled:

And it was the last time we would see Brian Kelly in Blue, Gold and Rage Purple.

Godspeed, you angry bastard.

This team is as frightening as: To hell with Notre Dame. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Losing a head coach doesn’t generally affect bowl performance.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Notre Dame hasn’t faced a team that finished above .500 since they lost to Cincinnati on October 2nd. Their perceived improvement could very likely be opponent-based.

Next game: None, because JOIN A CONFERENCE.

 

Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)

Last week: Beat Oklahoma, 37-33

Season Recap: A very strange beast: Oklahoma State was a Big 12 team with a mediocre offense and a top 10 SP+ defense, and they made it work. They didn’t allow more than 24 offensive points in a single game, despite facing a number of potent offenses. They were #4 in the country at 4.4 yards per play allowed, #6 at 2.8 yards per carry allowed, #13 at 6.2 yards per pass attempt (which, again, Big 12), and #1 in the country at 4.0 sacks per game and 8.5 TFLs per game.

The offense is… fine. Spencer Sanders is fine. Jaylen Warren is fine. They score some points. They don’t score a lot of points.

This team is as frightening as: Penn State with better pass protection. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Like Michigan, they finally got the monkey off their back by beating their biggest rival in their end-of-season battle after years of futility.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The lowest-rated of any of the teams still in the hunt, with the worst individual unit; their offense is #59 in SP+.

Next game: vs. Baylor, noon, ABC (OSU -5)

Ohio State (10-2, 8-1 B1G)

Lol just kidding they got eliminated SUPER hard last weekend.

Let me show you the dance of my people

Objects in the Rearview Mirror Lightning Round

Western Michigan (7-5, 4-4 MAC)

Last week: Lost at Eastern Michigan, 22-21; Won at Northern Illinois, 42-21

Recap: Western’s records in Tim Lester’s four full (i.e. non-COVID) seasons:

• 6-6 (4-4 MAC)
• 7-6 (5-3 MAC)
• 7-6 (5-3 MAC)
• 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

Consistency isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Washington (4-8, 3-6 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost at Colorado, 20-17; Lost to Washington State, 40-13

Recap: Hired Kalen DeBoer from Fresno State, which feels like a solid hire given the chaos in the coaching market right now. They also got him for $3.1M per year, which is probably about the right salary for a young up-and-coming guy with only a couple of years as a head coach.

/looks into the camera, Jim Halpert-style

 

Northern Illinois (8-4, 6-2 MAC)

Last week: Won at Buffalo, 33-27 (OT); Lost to Western Michigan, 42-21

Recap: The last of Michigan’s opponents standing is, as we all suspected, Northern Illinois. And they did it by pulling the anti-Nebraska; they were outscored by 1 point in conference play (and by 33 points overall) on their way to a division title.

Next Game: vs. Kent State, noon, ESPN (NIU +2.5)

 

Rutgers (5-7, 2-7 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State, 28-0; Lost to Maryland, 40-16

Stay vigilant, friends. Your battle will yet be joined. (Barron)

Recap: Rest in Peace, #QuickLaneBowlQuest. You were so close. In spirit, at least. Because on the field it wasn’t particularly close; their last 6 losses came by an average of more than 28 points, and none were closer than 14.

Wisconsin (8-4, 3-6 B1G)

Last week: Beat Nebraska, 35-28; Lost at Minnesota, 23-13

Recap: All Wisconsin had to do was beat Minnesota. Something Illinois did. Something Bowling Green did. Just beat Minnesota, and you’re heading to Indianapolis to play Michigan. And you decide, “Graham Mertz should throw 38 passes against 22 runs. And for the FOURTH time this year, you failed to reach 4.0 yards per play. Wisconsin experienced five such games in the prior eight YEARS.

A generational defense, and a, what, a Music City Bowl? What the hell are you doing, Paul?

Nebraska (3-9, 1-8 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 35-28; Lost to Iowa, 28-21

Recap: Words escape me. Numbers will have to do:

• 239 points scored against Big Ten teams. 239 points allowed to Big Ten teams. A 1-8 record in those games.
• 0-9 in one-score games on the year.
• 5-20 in one-score games under Scott Frost.
• Expected record based on post-game win expectancy: 7-5. Actual record: 3-9.
• Fourth in the Big Ten in net yards per play in conference games at +0.85 yards per play. The rest of the Top 5 finished 29-7 in Big Ten play (with 4 of those losses coming to other Top 5 teams). Nebraska, to remind you, finished 1-8 in Big Ten play.
• Outgained 9 of 12 opponents on a yards per play basis. Finished, and I cannot emphasize this enough, 3-9.

Not even mad.

Northwestern (3-9, 1-8 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Purdue, 32-14; Lost at Illinois, 47-14

Recap: Rutgers was outscored 306-117 in conference play. They lost their 8 games by 17, 49, 26, 27, 5, 28, 18, and 33 points. And they play in the B I G T E N W E S T.

If I’m being honest, when we’re talking about a team with 8 conference losses, this is one of the more devastating stat I’ve ever seen:

Shared on air yesterday that Northwestern is 1st tm since divisional play started in CFB to go 1st to last to 1st to last in 4 yr span. Also - there were zero lead-changes in the games NU lost this yr. Allowed 1st score in every game and never took the lead (or even tied it).

— Dave Revsine (@BTNDaveRevsine) November 28, 2021

 

Michigan State (10-2, 7-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 56-7; Beat Penn State, 30-27

Something? Anything?

Recap: The third thing you learn in a first year Contract Law at any law school in America (after the concepts of “offer” and “acceptance”) is the idea of consideration. Black’s Law Dictionary defines consideration as “something (such as an act, a forbearance, or a return promise) bargaining for and received by a promisor from a promise.” In short, consideration is the thing a party to a contract GETS from that contract. The benefit of the bargain. Each party to a contract must get SOMETHING for the contract to be considered binding; a contract that says, “I will give you five dollars because I like you,” for example, does not create a binding obligation.

Whether Mel Tucker is worth $9.5M is a different topic. But if you’re renegotiating an existing contract, there is a general assumption that each party gets SOMETHING in return.

Mel Tucker’s salary increased, from $5.4 Million to $9.5 Million per year. The amount Michigan State owes Mel Tucker if he leaves increased (from $4.6M/year to $9.5M/year). The amount Mel Tucker would have to pay DID NOT CHANGE; the amount he would have to pay to walk away tomorrow, $2.5M, is the same as he would have to pay if he hadn’t signed the deal, and would create an inconsequential hurdle if someone were to try to hire him.

James Franklin ⁠— with 11 seasons as a Power 5 coach, a track record of success, and a salary 20% smaller than Tucker’s ⁠— has a buyout is $12M in his new deal, and people were scoffing at that deal because it drops to a paltry $6M in two years. Hell, Tucker’s walk number on his original contract at MSU was $6 Million. They didn’t even reset the number to that.

So I ask this politely, MSU Contract Negotiation Guys/Gals: did you go to law school? And did you stick around for that second week?

Indiana (2-10, 0-9 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 35-14; Lost at Purdue, 44-7

Recap: Indiana was #17 in the country entering this season.

Yeah.

Penn State (7-5, 4-5 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 28-0; Lost at Michigan State, 30-27

Recap: A week ago, I would have had a good chuckle about James Franklin’s contract. Not the dollars, but the structure; they really only committed him in any real respect for two years while committing themselves to Franklin for a solid decade. But, in light of what has happened in the last few days… well played, Penn State.

Maryland (6-6, 3-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan, 59-18; Won at Rutgers, 40-16

Turtle. Bowl. Turtle bowl.

Recap: Maryland is bowl-eligible for the first time in five years. And while we were all hoping for Rutgers to make a bowl game for sentimental reasons, Maryland will make for a much more entertaining bowl game. What will December Maryland look like? The ’85 Bears? A mid-level high school team? WHO KNOWS! Stick around and find out.

Ohio State (10-2, 8-1 B1G)

Last Week: Beat Michigan State, 59-7; Lost at Michigan 42-27

Recap: They lost to Michigan.

People forget that.