Hello again. Apologies for my absence last week. Election Day work ate into my work week, plus following Election Twitter was basically a second (third?) job last week. But I have returned.

About Last Week

This was the outcome we didn't consider. The whole offseason was focused on the binary: football, or no football. But in a classic "your athletic directors were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn't stop to think if they should" moment, we didn't really appreciate the extent to which the football that came back would be different. Worse. Evil.

Cursed.

We knew the risks of COVID outbreaks, which have come to fruition just as most predicted. But we didn't acknowledge the risk – nay, the near certainty – that some teams would return and instantly suck at football beyond any normal explanations. Randomness sounds fun in the abstract, and if you're historically a 3-9 team you may not have much to lose (hi, Maryland). But if you're expecting to go 10-2, randomness isn't your friend. Michigan isn't alone here: Penn State, Minnesota, LSU, Oklahoma, and a bunch of other teams arose from the grave, but from Day One were clearly not what they should have been.

Sometimes, dead is better.

The Road Ahead

Wisconsin (1-0)

Last week: Not so much.

Recap:

It was going to happen to someone. Someone was going to show up for football season, and football season was going to say, “nah, hold up a minute.” Imagine the disappointment and lack of fulfillment that would come if you got all excited for football, then it just vanished from your grasp.

Lucky bastards.

Two big questions loom for Wisconsin:

1. Will Graham Mertz play? He is technically eligible to leave the COVID penalty box, but whether that means he will be game-ready by Saturday is a mystery. No offense to Danny Vanden Boom, but my guess is that if he is physically able to stand upright, Mertz will play.
2. What does it look like to cryogenically freeze a team for two weeks and then start back up? Florida seems to have handled it fine, but Notre Dame was sluggish in their first couple of outings after two weeks off.

This team is as frightening as: Cheese that may have turned. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Every time someone mentions “Jump Around,” a Michigan lineman instinctively jumps offside.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: When the expectations are this low, it would be hard to not to meet them. That’s good, right?

When they play Michigan: Aw dammit we have to watch this don’t we.

Next game: @ Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC (UW -4)

AFTER THE JUMP: Maryland?

Rutgers (1-2)

Last week: Lost to Indiana, 37-21; Lost at Ohio State, 49-27

Recap: Progress comes in many forms.

First they notched their first conference win since mid-2017. Now Rutgers has now gone three straight weeks without losing by 23 or more points for the first time since mid-2017. Say what you want about Greg Schiano – and oh buddy do I anticipate saying some stuff about Greg Schiano – but he seems to have taken the first step back towards the pack. Heck, you could make the argument they aren’t the worst team in the conference right now.

(No, I was talking about Illinois. MAN, things turned dark in a big damn hurry.)

This team is as frightening as: An 81 mile per hour belt-high fastball for a major league hitter in a terrible slump. A simple task that suddenly seems like more work than it should. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers is, all of a sudden and against all odds, solid against the run? They’re second in the conference at 3.1 yards per carry allowed, and they lead the conference (and are #6 in the nation) at 9 tackles for loss per game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has outscored Rutgers 256-37 in the last five years. Surely, even in this year of dumb insanity, we can squeeze out a win in this one.

When they play Michigan: This game feels relevant in a way I did not expect.

Next game: vs. Illinois, noon, BTN (Rutgers -6 but do not bet money on this game)

 

Penn State (0-3)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 38-25; Lost to Maryland, 35-19

Recap: The score is deceptive: Maryland POUNDED Penn State. The game was 35-7 early in the 3rd quarter, and Maryland put things on cruise control for the entire second half. Taulia Tagovialoa was 14-19 for 246 yards and 3 TDs *in the first half alone*. Penn State cut the lead to 16 points with 11 seconds left in the game.

I honestly don’t know which would be funnier: winless Penn State losing to winless Nebraska, or winless Nebraska losing to winless Penn State. Confused despondent James Franklin, or angry despondent Scott Frost? Nebraska fans acting like they are Frodo getting on the ship after saving Middle Earth, or Penn State fans not getting to enjoy the Jim Harbaugh implosion because the James Franklin implosion is somehow worse?

This team is as frightening as: The prospects of a 2014 Michigan/Penn State game redux. Real, and terrifying. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Micah Parsons may be gone, but Shaka Toney is a monster.

Shaka Toney takes some of the tightest corners in college football pic.twitter.com/pcT9xdhG7G

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 24, 2020

Michigan can sleep soundly about: For the umpteenth year in a row, Penn State has offensive line issues. They can’t run the ball – they’re averaging under 3.4 yards per carry – and they have surrendered a conference-high 13 sacks.

When they play Michigan: There will be a lot of pointing and laughing from everyone outside Ann Arbor and Happy Valley. Think "cold weather 2007 Michigan/Notre Dame" in the national consciousness.

Next game: @ Nebraska, noon, FS1 (PSU -3.5)

Maryland (2-1)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 45-44 (OT); Won at Penn State, 35-19

Recap: It was looking grim for a while. It seemed as if our day had passed.

And then, as if riding in on the winds of fall…

TURTLECOASTER BACK, BABY.

For those unfamiliar, for all of 2018 and much of 2019, Maryland football was marked by wild, hilarious fluctuations in offensive performance from week to week. But starting at about the midpoint of last season, the slow, steady, and worst of all consistent decline in offensive performance seemed to spell the end of what we lovingly labeled the Turtlecoaster.

Will this week see 8 yards per play, or 3 yards per play? Who knows. All I know is that I missed the football embodiment of the lady drinking kombucha gif, and I am glad it is back in our lives.

UPDATE: So, I am now reading that the Turtlecoaster is NOT back, and is in fact sidelined for repairs for at least a week. It’s basically like Cedar Point, and Maryland is Millennium Force; it only runs about 60% of the time, but when it does LOOK AT THAT SUMBITCH GO.

This team is as frightening as: Remember that time a guy literally got his head punted off by a roller coaster? Unlikely, but if it happens, you’ve got no one else to blame but yourself. Fear Level = 7?

Michigan should worry about: Taulia Tagovialoa has arrived. After a rough first outing, he put up 11.1 yards per attempt and 6 TDs against only 1 interception in his last two games. He also ran for 59 yards and two scores against Minnesota.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Trying to predict Maryland Football four weeks away is like looking at the weather forecast four weeks away. If your predictions are accurate, that's probably just a coincidence.

When they play Michigan: The prospect of defending Dontay Demus and Rakim Jarrett with Michigan's current secondary is really, really grim.

Next game: What if the real game was the COVID we met along the way.

 

Ohio State (3-0)

Last week: Won at Penn State, 38-25; Beat Rutgers 49-27

Recap: Good things continue to happen for Ohio State. Because the world is a good and fair place.

This team is as frightening as: A global pandemic, if every time that global pandemic infected someone it flooded your Twitter mentions talking shit. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Oh, I dunno, let’s go with Justin Fields this week. He has 11 touchdown passes on the season. He's throwing for 11 yards per attempt. He has 11 incompletions on the season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe Justin Fields will discover his true calling in something other than sports some time in the next few weeks. Everyone please introduce him to your favorite hobbies, forthwith. Maybe one will stick, and he can give up this silly throwball business.

When they play Michigan: 2021, god willing.

Next game: Y'all wait over there for a bit.

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Minnesota (1-2)

Last week: Lost at Maryland, 45-44 (OT); Won at Illinois, 41-14

Recap: Minnesota’s decision to suck out loud was one of the bolder choices this year, and I applaud them for it. You get the feeling that we’re going to look back on the Michigan/Minnesota opener the same way we look at 2016 Michigan State/Notre Dame.

Better times

Minnesota is allowing 7.3 yards per carry. No Big Ten team has finished at worse than 6.4 yards per carry in conference play in at least the last decade.

Next game: vs. Iowa, 7:00 p.m. Friday, FS1 (MINN +3.5)

Michigan State (1-2)

Last week: Won at Michigan, 27-24; Lost at Iowa, 49-7

Recap: The classic hypothetical question for fans with a blood rival has always been, “if you could go 1-11 but beat That Team You Hate So Much, would you take it?”

Michigan State is 1-2. Their remaining games are: #10 Indiana, @ Maryland, #23 Northwestern, #3 Ohio State, and @ Penn State. They will be underdogs in all of these games, and likely a significant underdog. I guess what I'm saying is that it's happening, and Michigan and MIchigan State fans are going to spend the next decade talking about 2020 as Spidermen Pointing At Each Other.

Next game: vs. Indiana, noon, ABC (MSU +7.5)

Indiana (3-0)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 37-21; Beat Michigan, 38-21

Recap: This column, obviously, takes a pretty cynical view of college football, human emotion, and life in general. But it's impossible not to feel good for Indiana fans this season. They're exorcising so many demons all at once:

• Beat a top 10 team in Penn State
• Beat Penn State, breaking a 1-for-21 skid
• Get involved in an insane game and actually win
• Beat Michigan
• Did I mention Penn State

They get Ohio State in two weeks. Buckle up.

Next game: @ Michigan State, noon, ABC (IU -7.5)

 

The Rest of the West

Illinois (0-3)

Last week: Lost to Purdue, 31-24; Lost to Minnesota 41-14

One thing to know: Things are bad. Really, really bad.

There is a legal concept known as res ipsa loquitur. We have discussed it once before, in 2013, in the context of the game in which Michigan had negative rushing yardage against a bad Nebraska team. The idea is that sometimes in a lawsuit, you don’t have to prove exactly what went wrong. You can, instead, point to the outcome and say, “I don’t have to know what led to this point or what exactly went wrong, as the results could only come about because the defendant screwed up.”

The canonical example is the case of a man who was walking by a building and a barrel of flour fell out of the second story window and landed on his head. No one saw what happened that caused the barrel to fall, and therefore he couldn’t prove what negligence had occurred that led to his cartoon style bonking. But the plaintiff successfully argued that if your barrel of flour is falling out a window, SOMEONE inside was being pretty goddang negligent.

Illinois opened as a touchdown underdog to Rutgers this week.

QED.

Next week: @ Rutgers, noon, BTN (Illinois +6.5, which, oh no baby what is you doin')

Iowa (1-2)

Last week: Lost to Northwestern, 21-20; Beat Michigan State 49-7

One thing to know: Iowa had themselves quite the cathartic week. After losing to Purdue and Northwestern by a combined five points, Iowa jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead against Michigan State.

Michigan fans, of course, kept an eye on this game as their team was getting throttled by Indiana. And every time something good happened for Iowa, we were very happy. And then we remembered, and realized the implications. And we were instantly sad.

Next week: @ Minnesota, 7:00 p.m. Friday, FSI (Iowa -3.5)

Nebraska (0-2)

Last week: Wisconsin game COVID’d; Lost at Northwestern, 21-13

One thing to know: Somehow, Nebraska leads the conference at 5.5 yards per carry. At the same time, Nebraska is tied for last in the conference with 0.0 wins per game.

Next week: vs. Penn State, noon, FS1 (PSU -3.5)

Northwestern (3-0)

Last week: Won at Iowa, 21-20; Beat Nebraska 21-13

One thing to know: I was prepared for a lot of things this year. I was not, however, prepared for 3-0 Northwestern to be a part of our lives. After a year of pairing a tragic offense with a decent defense, Northwestern has returned to their old formula of simply pairing a poor offense with a decent defense.

Upgrade!

Don’t Buy Northwestern

Next week: @ Purdue, 7:30 p.m., BTN (NW -3)

Purdue (2-0)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 31-24; Kept a healthy distance from Wisconsin

One thing to know: I ain't watched 'em. You ain't watched 'em. And yes I know both teams are undefeated, but with Northwestern rolling into town, this ain't the week to watch 'em either.

Next week: vs. Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., BTN (PUR +3)