About Last Week

So, as you may have noticed, there was no Opponent Watch last week. Work (actual work, not Penix joke work) was too busy for me to get something coherent together, which was probably for the best; the Big Ten's Week 4 schedule was as bad as you will ever see. But I was all set to get back into things… and then Rutgers fired Chris Ash. And I'll be honest: I'm having a hard time processing it. It was barely a year ago that Rutgers had turned a corner, and they were universally assumed to be heading to a bowl game. And now… man, I am adrift here. If Chris Ash can lose his job, what comfort can any of us have in our situation?

Ash's Rutgers has been a staple of this series for almost as long as I have been writing it. Their workmanlike ineptitude, combined with flashes of explosive ineptitude, made them feel almost like family. They were the screwup cousin we could always point to when things weren't going right: "sure I may be failing Geometry, but Cousin Chris is currently entering the second week of his armed standoff with those meat inspectors, so it could be worse."

So now, we reluctantly move on. But first, we shall honor Ash in the most Opponent Watch manner I could think of: with a hastily assembled, low-resolution slide show.

So long, #AshEra. You will be missed.

The Road Ahead

Iowa (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Beat Middle Tennessee State, 48-3

Recap: This game didn’t look too dissimilar from the Michigan/MTSU game, at least when the Blue Raiders had the ball. A general inability to consistently move the ball, and a lot of short throws and Asher O’Hara being gritty and pesky and grit-pesky. Iowa held MTSU to approximately the same yards per play as did Michigan (Michigan allowed an extra 0.1 yard per play), with the scoring difference coming largely from the fact that (a) Iowa doesn’t cover their footballs in bacon grease, and (b) they didn’t allow any garbage time bombs.

Offensively, though, Iowa really took it to MTSU in a way Michigan didn’t. Feel free to choose the reason that allows you to sleep soundly; personally I would go with “Michigan was in the first game of a new system and Iowa has been running their system since the Byzantine Era,” but I’m not one to limit your journey through life.

This team is as frightening as: Wisconsin Jr. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Iowa is coming off of their best rushing game in since 2016 (351 yards, 6.9 yards per carry), and it sounds like they are going to get Alaric Jackson back this week.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

Kinnick Iowa:

Road Iowa:

When they play Michigan: This is a crucial, must-win game for Michigan that threatens to serve as a turning point for the entire Harbaugh Era.

Next game: at Michigan, noon, FOX (Iowa +4)

[AFTER THE JUMP: more. Not better... but more.]

Illinois (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Nebraska, 42-38; Bye

Illinois

Recap: If you squint, the score of their game with Nebraska almost looks encouraging. But it doesn’t take long in the advanced box score before you realize that probably isn’t the case. Nebraska outgained Illinois by more than 2 yards per play (7.0 to 4.9), and by nearly 400 total yards (690 to 299). Adrian Martinez threw for 9.6 yards per attempt (9.0 after sacks) compared to Brandon Peters’ 3.7 (2.8 after sacks).

Illinois managed to keep things close on the scoreboard with, as we say around here, some bullshit. They forced five fumbles (recovering four), which meant three of their five touchdown ‘drives’ were of 2, 14, and 37 yards. They also got one great big 66 yard Reggie Corbin touchdown run, and another 36-yarder from Dre Brown. In all, they averaged 3.6 plays per drive, which is as low as you will ever see from a team scoring 38 offensive points.

Even if Illinois was feeling better about themselves after moral quasi-victory, Ohio State dashed that all to hell by bludgeoning Nebraska this week. And if that wasn’t bad enough, Eastern Michigan (who beat Illinois a few weeks ago) almost, aaaaaaalmost lost to Central Connecticut last week before one of the most bizarrely easy game-changing punt blocks you will ever see.

This team is as frightening as: The one spot ahead of Army in SP+. What could go wrong? Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Illinois leads the nation in tackles for loss per game, averaging 11.5 per contest. Oluwole Betiku Jr. still leads the nation individually with 10.5 TFLs, which is just 0.5 behind Iowa’s entire roster.

(“Fun” fact: 4 of the 5 national leaders in TFLs per game are still on Michigan’s schedule: #1 Illinois, #2 Ohio State, #3 Penn State, and #5 Notre Dame. MSU is #14, and Maryland is #17. Isn’t this fun? Aren’t we all having fun?)

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The Illini are still giving up a huge number of explosive plays. They are last in the Big Ten and tied for #124 in the country with 6.5 plays of 20+ yards per game, despite playing Akron, UConn, EMU, and Nebraska.

When they play Michigan: Illinois has the #2 SP+ Special Teams unit. I have no idea what to do with this information.

Next game: @ Minnesota, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Illinois +14)

Penn State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Won at Maryland 59-0

Recap: Guys, I’m not gonna tell you how to do your jobs. I get that you’re here to accomplish a task, and that entertaining folks is of secondary (if that) concern. But certain obligations come with being the Friday Night Game. Next time, do everyone a favor and at least leave SOME suspense? Andre the Giant could have just sat on every person that ever stepped into the ring. But did he? No. He allowed them to get in a few slaps across the chest and a couple of kicks to the midsection. He let the crowd have some fun. And THEN he sat on people.

Penn State didn’t even give folks a chance to settle in before declaring, “NOPE, FIND SOMETHING ELSE TO DO.” Despite kicking off, they had a 14-0 lead less than six minutes into the game, and only accelerated from there. There was no drama. They just sat on Maryland.

There isn’t much specific to take away from this game, because everything worked and nothing didn’t work. For the third time in four starts, Sean Clifford exceeded 12 yards per attempt, racking up 398 yards on 31 attempts (and completed 83.9% of his passes). He tacked on 54 rushing yards, because why not. By comparison, the traditional running game [air quote] struggled [/air quote], with Penn State’s four running back co-starters totaling 109 yards on 27 carries. Defensively, Penn State flustered Josh Jackson early, and it was all over from there.

This team is as frightening as: A team that is 138 points better than Howard. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: KJ Hamler was untackleable in space. He turned short completions into long gains several times, and added another significant punt return (that was called back on a penalty).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland was a disaster, and while that Pitt win briefly looked really shiny, Pitt subsequently tried hard to lose to Delaware this week.

When they play Michigan: This is a crucial, must-win game for Michigan that threatens to serve as a turning point for the entire Harbaugh Era.

Next game: vs. Purdue, noon, ESPN (PSU -27.5)

Notre Dame (3-1)

Last week: Lost at Georgia, 23-17; beat Virginia 35-20

Recap: We probably learned more about Notre Dame in the last two weeks than we learned about anyone else, and to be honest I’m still not sure how much more we know about them than when the season started. Every aspect of their team has looked both very good and very questionable at times. The run defense looked terrible against Louisville, but great against Virginia. The pass defense looked great coming into this game, but struggled against Virginia. The passing game has been up and down. The running game has been up and down. They recorded twelve combined sacks against Virginia and Louisville, but none against Georgia or New Mexico. Ian Book looks fine, but hasn’t been asked to do too much, and doesn’t seem to have made The Leap.

They’re just kind of… there. SP+ has them right behind Iowa and Michigan State at #22. The offense is #24. The defense is #32. They’re just… nondescript? Is that the word?

This team is as frightening as: They’re the generic team you face in the playoff semifinals in a football movie. They’re fine? Good? Maybe very good? I mean, they must be good if they are in the semifinals, but you don’t have any plot development that tell you how they got there. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Remember when Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem wrecked Michigan about 13 months ago? Well, they had a combined 5.5 sacks on Saturday.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Notre Dame lost both Daelin Hayes and Shaun Crawford to injuries on Saturday. Crawford now only has six years of eligibility left.

When they play Michigan: This is a crucial, must-win game for Michigan that threatens to serve as a turning point for the entire Harbaugh Era.

Next game: vs. Bowling Green, 3:30 p.m., NBC (ND -45.5. Yep, that’s right, -45.5)

Maryland (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost to Penn State 59-0

Recap: You’re a first-year coach at a middling Big Ten program. You have two choices. Choice 1: You keep your head down, quietly go about your business, try to pick up some momentum with a couple of quality wins, sign a better-than-expected recruiting class, and hope for the best. Choice 2: you find the nearest bully, kick sand in his face, announce in the loudest, least squeaky voice you can muster “SIR I AM GOING TO FIGHT YOU ON THE PLAYGROUND AT 7:00 TONIGHT ON NATIONAL TELEVISION,” and then invite all of the cool kids to come and watch the fight. Choice 2 is bold, but it can work; last year, Purdue picked the biggest, ugliest, Axe-Body-Spray-smellingest bully of them all, called them out, and beat the everloving crap out of them.

Maryland? Oh man buddy did Maryland not do that. Maryland went the 2016-Rutgers-against-Michigan route, where you invite a bunch of recruits and hype the game in a manner that would make Flava Flav blush, and then get bludgeoned about the head and shoulders for three unrelenting hours. Maryland cancelled classes, brought in 1,000 extra seats, and generally yelled “HEY EVERYONE WATCH THIS.” They may as well have been yelling “HOLD MY BEER.”

Maryland has now lost their last three games to Penn State by a combined score of 163-6. They are 2-40-1 all-time against their fierce rivals. Maaaaybe it’s time to pick a new bully.

This team is as frightening as: “You are indeed brave, Sir Turtle, but the fight is mine”

“Oh, had enough, eh?”

 

Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Nothing Maryland does is predictable.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland’s injury situation on the offensive side of the ball continues to worsen. They were already down Terrance Davis on the offensive line, and starting guard Marcus Minor dislocated a toe against Penn State. They also lost Lorenzo Harrison to a season-ending injury.

When they play Michigan: If you lean on them they will fall over.

Next game: @ Rutgers, noon, BTN (Maryland -13.5)

Michigan State (4-1, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Northwestern 31-10; Beat Indiana 40-31

Recap: I refuse to discuss the Michigan State/Northwestern game at length. I’m already in enough trouble with the FCC over the many, many Penix jokes, so discussing something as family-unfriendly as Hunter Johnson and Aiden Smith throwing 37 passes is asking for trouble. Suffice it to say that MSU averaged fewer yards per play against Northwestern than Michigan did against Wisconsin, but that was always going to be more than enough because Northwestern is abominable on offense.

The Indiana game, on the other hand, was very interesting. It was Spy vs. Spy. Spiderman-pointing-at-grumpy-Spiderman. Each looked for ways to blow it, but in the end, the power of You Tried, Indiana was undeniable, even in the face of a resurgent Oh Sparty. Michigan State put up their best offensive yards per play in a conference game since 2016 (6.3 YPP), but found themselves tied with Indiana with two minutes left. In fact, State was lucky to be tied; just minutes before, State was down by three, and Indiana returned a punt deep into MSU territory, but it was negated by a penalty. Then Whop “WHOP PHILYOR” Philyor beat the defense for a sure deep touchdown, but Michael Penix overthrew him by about 18 inches.

State now enters the crux of their season; @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, home against Penn State, mumblemumbleIllinois, and @ Michigan.

This team is as frightening as: I really wish I could make Northwestern the rock, as they are the most The Rock team in the history of this article. But, in lieu of that…

 Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Brian Lewerke remains healthy, and while he is the only part of the running game that is remotely functional, he IS functional in that capacity.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: MSU’s secondary remains dicey. They are surrendering a 63.6% completion rate, and at one point on Saturday they allowed Michael Penix to complete 20 consecutive passes. This seems to be a product of the fact that they don’t trust their corners to not get beaten over the top. Which makes sense, because their corners are getting beaten over the top with regularity.

When they play Michigan: Hopefully Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State will have done a little tenderizing.

Next game: @ Ohio State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (MSU +20)

Indiana (3-2, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat UConn 38-3; Lost at Michigan State 40-31

Indiana, give or take

Recap: One thing is for sure: Indiana is a much better team with Michael Penix behind center. It doesn’t mean they are a GOOD team, but they are at least interesting. And at the moment, they are #29 in SP+ rating, which is in the top half of the Big Ten.

Once again, though, Indiana found a way to Indiana the hell out of a game they could have won. I mean, is there anything more Indiana than being tied with a ranked team with 8 seconds left and losing by 9 points?

This team is as frightening as: Poor man's #CHAOSTEAM. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Kalen DeBoer is, to our great shock, a massive step up from Mike DeBord. As mentioned earlier, his offense put together 20 consecutive completions against a Michigan State team that, while vulnerable downfield, has always had success defending short stuff.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has won 23 straight so I’m sure nothing weird will happen.

When they play Michigan: Weird things.

Next game: Bye

Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Miami (NTM) 76-5; Won at Nebraska 48-7

Recap: Like Penn State, Ohio State decided to celebrate being the Super Important Evening Game Of The Week by making everyone immediately change the channel. It was 38-0 at the half, and it was every bit as bad as the drubbing Michigan put on them last year. Adrian Martinez's first half passing line was 2/7 for 10 yards, with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. It was bad.

Ohio State is now Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (52.4 ppg), scoring defense (8.6 ppg), total offense (7.34 YPP), total defense, (3.5 YPP), rushing offense (6.1 YPC), rushing defense (2.4 YPC), passing defense (5.1 YPA), third down conversion rate (56.6%), opponent third down conversion rate (24.7%), sacks (4.8 per game), tackles for loss (10.4 per game), scrimmage plays over 20 yards (34), first downs (29.2 per game), and red zone touchdown percentage (82.1%).

On the bright side, they are not in the Top 10 nationally in passing offense. Their 9.5 YPA is only #13 in the country. So, there's hope.

This team is as frightening as:

 

Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State has, on the whole, looked like the best team in college football through Week 5.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I mean you never know.

When they play Michigan: But sometimes you have a pretty good idea.

Next game: vs. Michigan State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -20)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (1-3, 0-0 CUSA)

Last week: Bye; lost at Iowa 48-3

Recap: Happened.

Next game: vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m. (MTSU +4)

Army (3-1)

Last week: Beat Morgan State 52-21; Bye

Recap: On one hand, at <3.7 yards per play, Michigan’s defensive performance is still the best against Army since 2015 (when Army finished 2-10). On the other hand, Morgan State just put up more yards per play than Michigan did.

Next game: vs. Tulane, noon, CBSSN (Army +3)

Wisconsin (4-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Michigan by a bazillion; Beat Northwestern 24-15.

Recap: Speaking of terrible transitive results, HEY THERE NORTHWESTERN.

One gets the impression that once Wisconsin got up 7-0 (which took exactly one possession), they assumed (with good reason) that they had enough points to win, so they just sort of farted around for a while. A long while. Like, their remaining possessions went for 18, 7, 5, 4, 13, 37, 21, 19, 6, 41, 4, 17, and -3 yards, and yielded three —THREE — more offensive points. The Badgers tacked on two defensive touchdowns, but Michigan fans probably did not feel great watching this.

Ultimately, the Northwestern offense DID outscore the Wisconsin defense 15-14, so, wave those tiny flags you zany Wildcats.

Next game: vs. Kent State, noon, ESPNU (Wisconsin -36)