About Last Week

Wow. Now THAT was a week. Not a week for well-played, quality football, mind you… but quite a week nonetheless. We had an El Assico, an El Assico with 17 total points, a third El Assico with a 19 yard field goal with the kicking team trailing by 7 in the 4th quarter, and a fourth El Assico with two safeties and a seven yard punt. Fair warning, though: you might want to stock up on schadenfreude and canned goods this week. Next week's schedule is brutal.

The Road Ahead

Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No Recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: When the Allies first busted out tanks in World War I. Still a little clumsy, and they're still working out the tactics of how to deploy the things. And while it might not seem especially modern by OUR standards, imagine the fear of being a German on the Western Front just getting slammed into by inside zones day after day and all of a sudden "holy Kaiserballs, Fritz, they are throwing the ball to Jonathan Taylor SINCE WHEN CAN THEY THROW THE BALL TO JONATHAN TAYLOR AND WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO USE TO STOP THAT???"  Fear Level = 8

Fun Fact: Leonardo da Vinci's original turtle-shell design of an armored fighting vehicle was inspired by watching Paul Chryst run a two-minute drill

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Wisconsin ain't played nobody.

Michigan should worry about: Michigan also ain't played nobody, and Wisconsin has looked significantly better against their nobody.  

When they play Michigan: I hear Wisconsin is lovely this time of year.

Next game: vs. Michigan, noon, FOX (UW -3)

Rutgers (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No Recap. Bye. Sweet, merciful bye. Like a warm embrace that says "I love you" but also "I'm sorry about what is about to happen to you."  A conjugal visit from Not Getting An Atomic Wedgie At This Moment.

This team is as frightening as: Well-rested Rutgers. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: uh

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers' opening-week statement win over UMass is looking a little less statement-y, as the Minutemen have since been blown out by Southern Illinois (45-20) and Charlotte (52-17). Rutgers is more than a touchdown underdog to a Boston College team that just lost 48-24 to Kansas. The transitive property of football is flawed, but none of this seems good.

When they play Michigan: That "freshmen get to play four games" rule may as well come with the clarifier that "one of them will be against Rutgers."

Next game: vs. Boston College, noon, BTN (Rutgers +8)

[AFTER THE JUMP: the conference, as they say, lost the plot]

Iowa (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Iowa State, 18-17

Recap: The good news is that Iowa notched their most consequential road win since 2015. What's more, this incarnation of EL ASSICO was, at worst, the third most Assico game of the Big Ten slate.

The bad news is that I watched this game live, and I dove into the advanced stats, and I have genuinely no idea how Iowa won. They weren't really better at anything. They were outgained by approximately 3.4 yards per play, which is a huge margin (for comparison purposes, that is a larger margin than last year's Michigan/Michigan State game or the Michigan/Ohio State game). Iowa threw for 5.7 yards per attempt, while Iowa State threw for 9.3 yards per attempt. The running games were roughly equal. And as tempting as it is to suggest that the hilarious ending to the game helps to explain it…

oh no

Iowa State ended their chances against Iowa with this muffed punt pic.twitter.com/qctUaUfE3u

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 15, 2019

…it doesn't explain how Iowa had a lead through the 58.5 minutes leading up to that.

This team is as frightening as: 

Kinnick Iowa: 

Road Iowa:    

Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Jim Harbaugh has a losing record against two Big Ten teams: Ohio State and Iowa.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Iowa's defensive front has generated shockingly little havoc. They have only three sacks through three games (3.2% of pass attempts, dead last in the conference), and they are last in the nation with 6 tackles for loss. AJ Epenesa is generating a handful of QB pressures, but unless they develop some additional threats, Epenesa is going to be eating double-teams for the rest of the year.

When they play Michigan: Don't get caught looking ahead to Illinois.

Next game: Bye

Illinois (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Eastern Michigan, 34-31

Recap: I know, I know. But this isn't that bad. EMU had a transitive win over Ohio State last year, and is light years beyond the days of the EMU program that averaged 2.5 wins per year under Ron English. Chris Creighton has built a thoroughly unremarkable program in Ypsilanti, which itself is remarkable.

Not pictured: Michael Penix

That said, since Lovie Smith arrived the Illini are 4-23 against the Big Ten and 2-2 against the MAC. EMU, meanwhile, is a MAC team who is a MAC team in the MAC, and they are 3-0 against the Big Ten in that span. If you can find me an Illinois fan who wouldn't trade Lovie for Chris Creighton tomorrow, I would say, "wow, you found an actual Illinois fan in 2019," but then I would say, "yeah, that's nuts."

This team is as frightening as: A poor man's Eastern Michigan. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Defensive End Oluwole Betiku Jr. leads the country with 6 sacks. Betiku was a 5-star who spent three years at USC and grad-transferred to Illinois this spring (and has two years of eligibility left). Betiku's run defense would make him unplayable on standard downs for a lot of teams, but he brings athleticism and some real pass rush upside.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: A vanilla RPO-plus-read-option offense should shred this team into confetti.

When they play Michigan: Muck Fichigan. Get it? GET IT? Lol, owned.

Next game: vs. Nebraska, 8:00 p.m., BTN (Illinois +13)

Penn State (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Pitt, 17-10

Recap: Ordinarily, this would be the point where we would point and laugh at Penn State for a little while.  After all, they HATE this game. They hate this game like Michigan hates Michigan State, only without the feelings of respect, parity, and camaraderie.  If this is Pitt's Super Bowl, it is Penn State's Festivus. It's an annual tradition they absolutely despise that involves a lot of yelling and grievances and awkward feats of strength, set against the backstop of strained family relations.

And this one was worse: it was close and competitive and terrible. Penn State was a 16.5 point favorite at home over Pitt, yet they had to fend off two late possessions to pull out a narrow and rather hilarious win. And we would love to dwell on the fact that Penn State surrendered 372 passing yards, the most passing yards by Pitt against a Power 5 team in six years, and that Penn State couldn't run the ball at all. But then Pat Narduzzi did the dumb thing, so we have to point and laugh at that instead.

Pat Narduzzi went in depth on his much debated decision to go for a FG from the 1-yard line with 5 min left vs. Penn St. during his press conference today. pic.twitter.com/zVT7qfbYF0

— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) September 16, 2019

Can Math feel sadness? Because I feel sad on Math's behalf.  I only took a few semesters of math in college, and even then I am actively offended by this level of stupidity. I don't even know which argument is the dumbest, or the dumbest part of each dumb argument. But, for starters:

• Yes, you need two scores to win. You know one of them can come in overtime, right? Like, you don't have to actively SEEK overtime because you think overtime is for the weak or is filled with spiders or lava or something, but if you end up there, you can still win from there, right?
• Yes, you need two scores to win. And one of them needs to be a touchdown. When are you going to be closer to scoring said touchdown than when you have the ball on the one yard line?
• You think overtime is lava spiders. Got it. But you do know you can go for two after the touchdown, right? In which case, (a) if you make it, congratulations, there's your second score, and (b) if you miss, congratulations, you STILL ONLY NEED THE SAME ONE SCORE YOU NEEDED TO BEGIN WITH.
• You don't think you have a third play that can gain one yard? Bummer, but okay. But then what's your plan for driving somewhere between 50 and 90 yards when (if) you get the ball back? You know that the field is just comprised of a bunch of one yard chunks that you will eventually have to traverse, right?
• You trust your defense, eh? Well, you know a great place to trust your defense? On the ONE FREEKING YARD LINE. A safety gets you the ball back, and also counts as one of your two scores that you have to get in regulation to avoid the lava spiders. And even without a safety, the odds that Penn State has to punt out of their own end zone are really high. If you kick the field goal, whether you make or miss you let Penn State out from the goal line.
• You are dumb.

You have out-Frames'd Frames. I award you no points. So you still need two scores to win.

(Of course, Frames did give Pitt an extra timeout on the last play of the game for unknown reasons, but overall he was the more cunning and shrewd tactician. My brain hurts.) 

This team is as frightening as: A fax copy of the #Tuddies Penn State team of a few years ago. You can see the similarities, but nothing is as sharp, the lines are fuzzier, and a lot of the details are kinda screwed up. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Jordan Stout. The sophomore kicker has some sort of bionic leg or is perpetually hopped up on goofballs or something. He has booted 25 kickoffs this year, of which 24 have been touchbacks (and most of which have been totally unreturnable). He also accomplished a first by making me say aloud, "huh, I guess James Franklin knew what he was doing" by thumping a 57-yard field goal in sloppy conditions to end the first half against Pitt.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After rushing for 3.3 yards per carry against Buffalo, Penn State struggled on the ground again against Pitt. They rushed for 5.2 yards per carry, but only 2.6 yards per carry outside of one (magnificent) Journey Brown 85-yard run. Penn State is relying heavily on big running plays, and it remains to be seen whether they can churn out yards consistently against decent teams.

When they play Michigan: Don't kick 19 yard field goals.

Next game: Bye

Notre Dame (2-0)

Last week: Defenestrated New Mexico, 66-14

[Stock Notre Dame image here]

Recap: I don’t want to talk about Notre Dame this week.

You can’t do that again.

The hell are you doing here?

Only one UFR to do this week. Got bored. Figured I’d wander around the building. And it’s a good thing I did. ‘Cause you can’t not talk about Notre Dame two weeks in a row.

Why not?

You can’t punt on the same team in two consecutive weeks, other than Ohio State. This isn’t a late-game field goal attempt. There are rules.

There literally are not rules.

...

And we’ve got SO MUCH other crap to talk about.

…

FINE.

Recap: Notre Dame beat the unholy hell out of New Mexico State, covering the 35-point spread for good with about 28 minutes left. This was never gonna be a game, and it wasn’t. Happy now?

If you want to be the kind of person who only does the bare minimum.

I hope the next UFR is 94 plays. And the only replay available is in standard def. And the audio is out of sync by six seconds. And is in Portuguese.

On the positive for ND, they averaged 9.1 yards per play, and Ian Book threw for 360 yards on just 24 attempts. Everything worked, from the stuff that looked really cool to the stuff that looked catastrophic. As a Michigan fan, if you want to be frightened of something, it is the success Notre Dame showed in testing edges and with crossers. The secondary has been opportunistic and has generally not allowed a lot of open receivers.

If you want some negative takeaways, you need to really nitpick. After a rough outing against the run against Louisville, Notre Dame surrendered 5.3 yards per carry to New Mexico, and there remains reason to be concerned about their linebacker play. Offensively, while they had success being way bigger and faster and better than the Lobos, Book didn’t really have much success throwing down the field; most of his explosive passing plays were touch passes or screens. Still, when everything that you try works, it's hard to fault a team for picking the wrong thing that works.

This team is as frightening as: 2018 Ohio State. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Notre Dame is #4 in the country at 12.5 yards per attempt, and #3 in the country in 30+ yard passes per game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I've said it before and I'll say it again: Notre Dame's linebackers can be had.

When they play Michigan: It feels like the weird scheduling is going to take some shine off the rivalry aspect this year. Unless Michigan loses, in which case it will be a couple solid weeks of HARBAUGH CAN'T BEAT RIVALS.

Next game: @ Georgia, 8:00 p.m., CBS (ND +14.5)

Maryland (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Temple, 20-17

Recap: It wasn't that Maryland's offense was bad last year. It was just astonishingly inconsistent. They put up 10.3 yards per play against Illinois and 8.6 against Ohio State, but 1.9 yards per play against MSU and 3.0 against Iowa. Their average – AVERAGE – difference in yards per play from any given week to the next week last year was 4.4 yards per play. That is insane. It was never within 1.8 yards per play of the previous week. That number was as high as 8.4.

That's what made the first two weeks so promising; they put together back-to-back solid offensive performances. If they could continue it into Week 3, you might just have yourself a brand new day at Maryland. Instead…

YPP since the beginning of 2018. Note the era of consistency

…yeah. Four of Maryland's points on Saturday came on safeties (one intentional, one yakety-snapped), so the Terps scored 13 points on 17(!) offensive drives. Their last two drives, down 5 points in the 4th quarter, started at the Temple 4 and the Temple 10. Neither yielded any points. Josh Jackson missed a bunch of receivers, and completed 39.4% of his passes for 4.8 yards per attempt. And to make matters worse, Maryland's best offensive lineman, Terrance Davis, left with a knee sprain and will miss 4-6 weeks.

They will, however, light Penn State the hell up in their next game, and then beat Rutgers 5-3. Because Maryland is the new #CHAOSTEAM.

This team is as frightening as: Questionable potato salad. Best case, it's fine and unremarkable. Worst case, uncontrollable pooping. There is no middle case. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Anthony McFarland and Javon Leake each looked dangerous and had some explosive carries. Even if the offense can't sustain drives, they can both pop big runs at any time.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: But mostly when they are Upswing Maryland.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is scheduled to face Downswing Maryland, so I feel good about this.

Next game: Bye

Michigan State (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Arizona State, 10-7

Recap: Nostalgia is a funny thing. Our minds crave order and look for patterns, and as a result we seek to recognize the past in the present. So in recent years whenever Michigan State played poorly or lost a game they shouldn't have or generally looked dysfunctional, many people wanted to declare "Sparty No." But us old-timers urged caution as the youths besmirched our cherished memories: "I know you might think losing to Jeff George Jr. or losing on a late bomb to Nebraska or getting annihilated by Alabama is a Sparty No, but it's… it's not. That's different. Just trust me. Some day you'll see."

Then, in the time it took to count to twelve, we were carried back into a world of the coaches screwing up the game or running the option in Hurricane Katrina or blowing a Big Ten title by bumping into a punter. It was that smell of your old girlfriend's shampoo. It was the opening bars of a song from the mix tape you played every day when you were in 9th grade. It was a moment where those memories came flooding back, and your brain reminded your soul of all those old feelings. A full, unadulterated, unqualified Sparty No.

Eleven; Not Eleven

Michigan State's offense wasn't terrible. They gained over 400 yards at nearly 5.5 yards per play.  Brian Lewerke looked functional, and Darrell Stewart made some impressive catches. Elijah Collins looks to be a solid feature back-type substance. They had drives of 70, 63, 58, 53, 46, and 36 yards. And they still scored 7 points.

That should scare Sparty as much as anything. Michigan State's entire raison d'être for the past decade has been 'success against all odds.' Dantonio formed this Michigan State program around an ethos of Victory by Intangibles (or, if you prefer, Victory By Some Monumental Bullshit). He could duct tape a pigeon to a tractor and somehow the thing would fly. This game was a callback to the days of John L. Smith. To failure against all odds. To the days when success wasn't enough for victory.

MSU had a defensive 4th and 13 to win the game and used two timeouts to come up with a defense that never had a chance to stop Arizona State. They outgained Arizona State by almost 200 yards. They were at home against a team that struggled to beat Sacramento State. The Sun Devils essentially made no effort to move forward or score points for approximately 80% of the game. This was on a platter for Michigan State, both because of their own defensive play and because of Arizona State's Herm Edwards-ness. That's why the missed leaping penalty wasn't a thing; on that day, the way things were going, can anyone make a straight-faced argument that Michigan State wouldn't have found a way to screw things up?

Maybe this is a blip. Maybe Mark Dantonio can recapture the magic of a scrappy team who can win by sheer force of wanting to piss you off. But if "being better at offense" wasn't a cure for Michigan State's offensive problems, what exactly is the solution supposed to be?

This team is as frightening as:

 

Not thinking I'm going to regret this one.  Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State is still allowing 0.9 yards per carry.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Their offensive line is, once again, a mangled mess of injuries. Cole Chewins, AJ Arcuri, and now Kevin Jarvis are all out at left tackle, leaving Tyler Higby in a place he really should not be.

When they play Michigan: Dantonio has already started to script the first series.

Next game: at Northwestern, noon, ABC (MSU -9)

Indiana (2-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 51-10

Recap: Michael Penix missed this game with an undisclosed injury (believed to be a problem with his throwing arm), and while it probably didn't make much of a difference in the outcome, it certainly didn't help. Peyton Ramsey threw for only 4.9 yards per attempt with no TDs and a pick. Indiana also struggled once again to run the ball, averaging under 2.8 YPC if you remove sacks. The defense also offered very little resistance, surrendering 30 points in the first half.

This team is as frightening as: Man, it's really tempting to make them another rock. But I think that's against Opponent Watch rules.

YO, Bolded alter-ego

Sup.

Can we do more than one rock in a year?

What do you mean?

Like, is it against the rules to have two teams be rock?

What rules? There aren't any rules.

God I hate you.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State may have lost their "some bullshit" mojo, Indiana has Doomsday Preppers quantities of it stored away in 55 gallon barrels, all labeled "DO NOT OPEN 'TIL MICHIGAN."

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Much of Indiana's 2018 offensive mid-season renaissance/Brownian-Motion-in-the-right-direction was based on the emergence of Stevie Scott. That appears to be a non-recurring event.

When they play Michigan: Bullshit. Yada yada yada. Victory.

Next game: vs. UConn, noon, BTN (IU -27)

Ohio State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 51-10

please ring the bell please ring the bell please ring the bell

Recap: I know this will shock you, but Ohio State bludgeoned an inferior opponent in a manner that left any complaints feeling moot. They outgained the Hoosiers 520-257. They threw the ball well. JK Dobbins tallied a had his best yards-per-carry afternoon since 2017 (8.8 YPC), and second string running back Master Teague broke 100 yards for the first time. The run defense gave up almost nothing, and the only hiccup in the pass defense was a double-pass trick play. The defense also scored on a pick-six.

This team is as frightening as: Yes. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State seems to have not gotten worse.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Probably couldn't beat the Miami Dolphins. Probably.

When they play Michigan: Not yet.

Next game: vs. Miami (NTMorTMD), 3:30, BTN (OSU -39)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

MTSU (1-2, 0-0 CUSA)

Last week: Lost to Duke, 41-18

Recap: Pretty unremarkable game, though not a great one for the hope that MTSU was secretly a juggernaut. Asher O’Hara threw for 201 yards at 7.4 YPA, and rushed for 95 yards on nearly 8 yards per carry (sacks removed). The MTSU defense, though, allowed Duke QB Quentin Harris to complete 24 of 27 passes, and the game was 31-3 at the half. We can probably ignore the Blue Raiders from here on out.

Next game: Bye

Army (2-1)

Last week: Beat UTSA, 31-13

Recap: UTSA decided to schedule Army, and for some reason, that wasn’t enjoyable. Kelvin Hopkins missed this game with an injury, but that didn’t seem to make much of a difference. Army rushed for 6.2 yards per carry and held the Roadrunners to 1.9 yards per carry. The Black Knights jumped out to a 10-0 lead less than 5 minutes into the game, and other than a couple of fumbles allowing UTSA to keep it close — gee I wonder how that feels — this one could have gotten out of hand early.

UTSA’s leading rusher was Sincere McCormick. I just thought you should know that, mostly because I feel like we should be on the lookout for his evil twin, Nefarious Penzey’s.

Next game: vs. Morgan State, noon, CBSSN (No line, but Morgan State lost to James Madison 63-12 last week, so Army -many)