hockey column
rutger mcgroarty
erik portillo
brandon naurato
2023 big ten hockey tournament
2023 ncaa hockey tournament
Back-to-back [UMich Athletics]

My Game Is Hanging Banners Comment Count

Alex.Drain March 20th, 2023 at 4:38 PM

3/18/2023 – Michigan 4, Minnesota 3 – 24-11-3 (9-7-3-5 B1G) - B1G Tournament Champions

Most teams have a certain sort of "typical game" that defines them. That game is a description of the formula that the team uses to win and perhaps the players that are key to get you there. If I asked you what a 2022 Michigan Football game was like, what would you say? You'd probably tell me it involved strong defense that gets off the field and then an offense featuring a punishing OL and elite RBs that hog time of possession and choke the life out of opponents. That's what I'm talking about here. 

You can apply this to hockey, or any other sport that involves two sides against each other. A typical Tampa Bay Lightning game over the past couple seasons of their dynastic run atop the NHL involves a smothering forecheck that wears you out, big defensemen who beat you up in the corners, a top notch 1-3-1 PP, and great goaltending. A typical New Jersey Devils game from 1995-2012 involved the neutral zone trap, bone-crunching defensemen standing you up at the blue line, a steady and consistent goalie in net, and just enough offense to beat you 2-1 in a playoff game.

The great teams in every sport have a formula to beat you. It doesn't always go that way, great teams also have other ways to win, but as you lean back in a nice chair decades from now, sipping scotch in front of the fireplace and jog your mind about a legendary team you once watched, the "typical game" I've described is what comes to mind first. It's the memory of success that lingers in our mind, the fastest descriptor to tell your grandchildren about how/why X team from the good ole days was great. 

[Patrick Barron]

I bring this up because a few weeks back, when David and I were bemoaning the lack of structure in this Michigan Hockey team's play, I mentioned this very point and the absence of such a "typical game" for the 2022-23 squad. I asked him, "what does the ordinary Michigan game look like? What's their typical formula?". At the time we concluded that there wasn't really a typical game, the closest thing to it was playing high event, rag-tag games that end up with the team in the winged helmet leaning on their elite talent to finish more chances than the opposition. Not so much a formula but a testament to the caliber of players on the roster. 

This was true a few weeks ago, when Michigan swept a bad Wisconsin team in far from reassuring fashion, tying the first game with under thirty seconds left before winning in OT and blowing a three goal lead the second night, only to score the game-winner with three minutes to go in regulation. At that point, it seemed like there would be no "typical game" for this group, just a collection of random victories linked together only by the shared offensive brilliance of players like Adam Fantilli and Luke Hughes. They lacked a core identity, cohesive 60 minute games of structured, focused defense and potent offense. 

But over the past two weeks, something has changed. They played their most scripted, disciplined game of the season last week against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Yost, a performance I marveled at in the game column last week. It was a welcome sign but didn't necessarily mean much if it couldn't be replicated. But then it was replicated on Saturday night against Minnesota. Michigan went in to Minneapolis, in front of 10,305 Gopher fans, and played another structured, well-coached game. They made a few mistakes, which happened to be punished in the largest way, but for the second straight week Michigan completely muzzled a team in-zone at 5v5, tilted the ice on a top ten opponent, got steady goaltending, and ultimately nailed down a win in a playoff tournament. It took a long time to get there, but Michigan has found its typical game. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Narrative, bullets, and brackets]

-------

[David Wilcomes]

Michigan Hockey has won the 2023 B1G Tournament. They will get another banner in the rafters of Yost Ice Arena, next to the 2022 and 2016 ones, their third tournament title in seven (completed) events. Brandon Naurato's team also snared a #1 seed in the NCAA D1 Men's Ice Hockey Tournament, the third overall seed, as a result of these exploits. Michigan is a very good team, maybe even elite, with a sky high ceiling once the event gets underway on Tuesday. They have been rewarded for their successes this season and deserve to own the B1G Tournament for crown. 

There are still things to sort out as we go into the NCAAs. Michigan still allowed three goals against Minnesota and so their track record of winning games while holding the opponent to 0-2 goals remains scant. That's an area for concern and so is the individual defensive efforts of certain players, costing the team goals this past weekend off the rush and on the PK against Ohio State last weekend. If given more time, I can imagine Brandon Naurato has a list of things he'd like to clean up with his team on the back-end.

But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Michigan is now tilting the ice on the opposition. They're getting more shots and more chances, and largely better chances at that. When you have the sort of talent that Michigan has at the forward position and you're getting more looks, you're going to win most all of the games that you play. Michigan has begun to generate offense while forechecking in the past few weeks, including this goal on Saturday: 

That's senior Nick Granowicz making it happen, stripping a Minnesota defenseman of the puck via a board battle against two maroon sweaters, setting Gavin Brindley up to go to work after possession has been established. Michigan's newfound dominance off the cycle in that second period coaxed them into being a bit greedy, ceding a 2v0 chance against later in the period that led to a goal, but you'd always prefer to get punched off the counter in a game you're controlling than to give up goals because you're getting caved in shift after shift.

Michigan didn't get caved in by Ohio State or Minnesota. Individual games are variable in hockey so it certainly could happen in the tournament on an off day, but if the Buckeyes and Gophers weren't able to do it to this group, I'm not sure who can. Michigan can lose in the NCAA Tournament, no doubt about that, and I'd be a bit squeamish about them going up against a team with a great goalie who can park the bus (unfortunately there's one of those in their region). But there is no team who I think will bury this team in an avalanche of shots and extended OZ time. Michigan should at least be on equal footing in terms of opportunities no matter who they face.

Two weeks ago I wouldn't have said that, but the Wolverines have grown up a lot. They've shown a commitment to team hockey, to playing within a system to suppress chances against, to get pucks out cleanly. This was a young team from the start of the season, and then injuries intervened. Michigan's top nine highest scorers this season are all freshmen or sophomores. The first junior you find is a defenseman who has been hurt for the past two months. The first senior on the scoring list is the 13th name down, a stay-at-home defenseman with zero goals on the season.

This coaching staff didn't take over until there were two months before the season started, hiring hockey operations assistants mere weeks before puck-drop. A freshman who was drafted 13th overall in the NHL draft in July was ruled out for the first four months of the season back in the fall. Then the group dealt with a team-wide illness that threatened the life of one player and gave them two automatic losses against Minnesota at home. Their no-doubt best player has missed five games with illness, suspension, and WJC training. Just two players have appeared in all 38 games. Quoting Queen, they've had their share of sand kicked in their face and this weekend, they did come through. The sky is the limit in the NCAAs now... four more games like the last two they've played, and no one is stopping the Maize & Blue. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

HockeyBullets

- Rutger Hour: It was nice to see Rutger McGroarty get Michigan's first two goals on Saturday night. He's now scored goals in four straight games and has multiple points in all four of those games. Rutger had scored just twice in the second half of the season before heating up in the B1G Tournament and getting him to come along has been a sizable boost for the squad. Adam Fantilli and Gavin Brindley had been doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the top line, but McGroarty is now starting to finish the chances his teammates create, with both goals being heads-up, right time, right place goals. His second was pure puck luck on the bounce, but only so much of it is luck when you put yourself in the right position to get chances and have finishing talent: 

While 15-19-34 in 36 games looks pretty damn good to the outside observer, I think there's more here for Rutger to unlock. I'd be surprised if he signs with the Winnipeg Jets this offseason, so I'd expect him back at Michigan next year, where I could see a big jump being quite possible. He has room to become more consistent, a better playdriver, and his skating can certainly improve too. I'm curious to see how he closes out the year and how that projects him into 2023-24. [Bonus points if you recognized the reference in the bolded title of this bullet] 

- Rush defense snafus: Some of the defense we saw against the rush on Saturday was very rough and it mirrored some of the PK struggles we talked about last week, where the bare minimum was not being done. Keaton Perhson found himself as the 1 in a 2v1 and was unable to do the one job you have in that situation, preventing the pass from getting across: 

He tries to account for both the puck-carrier and the passing option by briefly biting on the shot and then falling back, but in the process he accomplishes neither of the objectives. A pass comes across, Portillo is in an exposed position, and Brody Lamb finds the twine. Steve Holtz was on the hook for the other: 

We said on the Watchalong that the biggest issue here is Holtz not playing the body. Rhett Pitlick is not skating very fast and Holtz is playing an incredibly tight gap. It's not like you're trying to contain Connor McDavid, where sizing up the gap is damn near impossible, Holtz has a tight gap on a guy who isn't skating fast at all. All you gotta do is reach your long arms out and play the body. Don't try and pokecheck the puck when you're 6'4", just keep the body in front of you and step up and separate him from the puck physically. 

Luke Hughes also got carved up like a pumpkin by Matthew Knies in space at a different point in the game, a bit understandable given the caliber of player doing it but still bad, as Hughes was forced to trip Knies to prevent a goal. All in all it was a very bad evening for Michigan defending the rush chances Minnesota got. I don't think this fits into a broader pattern of anything, so it was probably an off night, but it's something I'd be emphasizing in practice this week if I'm Naurato. 

[Bill Rapai]

- Closing time: I said on the HockeyCast (which will be published tomorrow) that I don't recall much of anything from the final five minutes, when Michigan was protecting the lead and trying to finish it off, and that's the best thing I can say about it. I could go back and re-watch and break it down, demonstrating how Michigan salted it away, but the fact I don't remember anything specific is all you need to know. Penalty kills and late-game situations with a lead in hockey are like corners/safeties in football, it's satisfactory if you don't remember anything specific. Last time Michigan was in Minnesota they were in the same position both games, a one-goal lead with five minutes to go and both times they struggled under pressure and ceded the final goal. This time it was a workmanlike, methodical job to wind the clock down, pushing play to the outside and quickly clearing whenever possible. Growth! 

- The GOALPOST HORROR: The most stupid Thing Fans Get Mad At that I've seen recently is the "controversy" over the goalposts coming dislodged during this game. I don't watch that many games at Mariucci and yet I notice that at least once in every single game, no matter the teams, the goal at the west end of the ice (right side if you're watching on TV) comes dislodged. Often times, it happens multiple times. Always at this rink and at that end of the ice. Why? I don't know. Feels like Minnesota has the money to invest in sturdier nets and fix the underlying problem, but it is a well known thing, which makes it all the more hilarious when Gopher fans were OUTRAGED that Portillo knocked the net off once (a play that wasn't even going to result in a goal as Portillo made the save anyway). Just twitter search "net dislodged Minnesota" and you can find Gopher fans complaining about it from over a year ago. Let's not pretend like we were all born yesterday and humor this discourse. Fix your damn rink, Minnesota.  

[Bill Rapai]

- Portillo check-in: I thought this was a very solid game from Portillo, one of his best of the season. Rebound control was mostly sharp, one shot at the tail-end of the game that he couldn't squeeze which he needs to have in the glove, denying the team a chance to get a whistle and change, but that was the only memorable event. He wasn't scrambling in the crease at all, swimming and diving around. Of the three goals he gave up, the first one he has very little chance at when Keaton Pehrson doesn't take the pass away and the second one involved an odd decision to go for the pokecheck but it's a 2v0 and you have very few good options. The third goal was perhaps a bit iffier, but it was bar-down, an excellent shot. Nothing egregious and every goal involved at least one massive "oof" moment from the team in front of him. Fine by me. Just keep it going, Erik. 

- Paging Mr. Ono: For the second straight season, those of us tuning into ESPNU for the Selection Show got treated to the final minutes of the NCAA D1 Women's Hockey National Championship Game, and for the second straight year that game saw a B1G school win the title, Ohio State and Wisconsin. This year the final four teams remaining consisted of three B1G schools, those two + Minnesota. It has remained an utter embarrassment for the university that women's hockey is not a D1 program, given Michigan Athletics' resources and the decades-long quality of the men's program. It is double the embarrassment when comparable universities in your athletic conference don't just have teams, but have some of the very best teams in the country. I was glad to see OSU lose in the title game because duh, but I hate that I have to root for Wisconsin to be the ones to beat them. Get D1 women's hockey done, Mr. Ono. 

 

Selection Sunday 

Yesterday was Selection Sunday for college hockey, which means we now have a bracket, and a destination for Michigan: 

Another year in Allentown means another year of Billy Joel references, everybody! Michigan hopped up to the 3rd overall seed thanks to an incredible convergence of good luck forces from the weekend. Denver lost in stunning fashion to Colorado College on Friday, opening the door, then Michigan had to beat Minnesota, St. Cloud had to beat CC, and even with all that happening, Michigan edged out Denver in RPI by a margin of what was reported to be .000002!!!! It's a massively consequential change, doubly so when we factor in Colgate's defeat of Harvard to snag the 15th spot in the tournament. If it's Alaska in that spot instead of Colgate, Michigan would be drawing Merrimack in round one. However, since Colgate and QPac are in the same conference, they had to swap Colgate with Merrimack, giving the Wolverines an opponent they are ~11% likelier to defeat. Doesn't seem like a lot, but in the context of this tournament, it's a massive deal. 

I won't go too much into the rest of the bracket, because we have the annual NCAA Tournament preview coming out in a few days, but I will echo what was pointed out on the MGoPodcast about the broader draw: it is favorable to Michigan even outside of the regional. Minnesota is now on the other half of the draw, as is Denver and BU, three of the top five teams in the country and the three teams not named Michigan who have mixed consistently elite play with a good strength of schedule and who possess NHL talent on the roster.

Quinnipiac has had an awesome season, don't get me wrong, but they pile up wins in a poor conference and lack the glut of draft picks that Minnesota/Denver/BU/Michigan have. I'd rather play QPac over any of those teams. There's only one team in the KRACH ratings who is clearly better than Michigan and it's Minnesota (although, ya know, we just saw Michigan play pretty damn well against them). If Michigan was 4th overall, they'd be possibly facing Minnesota in the Frozen Four. Now? Not until the national title game. The small details matter. 

A regional rematch? [Bill Rapai]

Like last year, here's a quick rundown on Michigan's region: 

  • (4) Colgate: This matchup isn't too dissimilar from the first round game with AIC last year. Michigan was ~86% to win that one, they're ~81% to beat Colgate. The Raiders are not a program that makes the NCAA Tournament often and this year they were 5th in the ECAC, 13 points behind Harvard and 24 behind QPac. Colgate went 3-7-2 outside the ECAC, facing opponents that are at least a couple notches below Michigan in quality. In terms of all college hockey teams, Colgate is average. In terms of tournament teams, they are bad. A crazy five game winning streak in the ECAC Tournament is why they're here, but they are a major underdog and a gift to face instead of Merrimack. G Carter Gylander has had a solid season and is the primary reason why they're here. Michigan is going to dictate the game and dominate chances, so long as they finish a few of them, they should be fine.  
  • (2) Penn State: Hey, these guys again! The Nittany Lions were 8th in PWR but take the slot normally given to the  sixth overall seed because they must play in Allentown as the "host" of the regional. That conveys them a likely advantage among fans in attendance, whatever you think it's worth. Otherwise, this is a team Michigan has seen and would be very comfortable facing. The Wolverines won the season series with PSU, two games in the fall coming under weird circumstances (no Portillo being one circumstance) and then two in January at Yost. This Michigan team has grown up a lot since then, so it's not perfect, but we know how they match up. I'll take a team that wants to play high event hockey without a glut of NHL players on the roster and with an unspectacular goalie against Michigan every day of the week, no matter where it's played. 
  • (3) Michigan Tech: This is the interesting one. Minnesota State was the team in line to play Michigan but they got moved to Fargo for geography reasons. I'd have rather played the Mavs, but Tech isn't impossible. It's just going to test Michigan and make the Wolverines play a different sort of game if they draw the Huskies. G Blake Pietila is a stud, .929 SV% facing 28 shots per game, leading the NCAA with 10 shutouts. Yes Tech doesn't play in a power conference but that's still impressive. They don't score much so the goal for them to beat both PSU and Michigan is to try and win games 2-1 or 3-2. Get a lead, shut it down, Notre Dame it up. If there's one saving grace, it's that MTU doesn't have the NHL draft talent of a Notre Dame, but it is a stylistic matchup that would challenge Michigan. 

As you can guess, I recommend cheering for PSU over Tech in the first round matchup. I know about the fan situation in Allentown, but PSU played in Allentown in 2018 before plenty of fans and got run by Denver 5-1. Michigan just went into Mariucci this past weekend, a venue that no doubt was more intimidating than whatever Allentown will be, and played a dominant game to beat Minnesota. Would I prefer this regional to be played somewhere truly neutral? Sure. But it is far from a gargantuan obstacle and I take the team that's a favorable matchup over the team that has the elite goalie every day of the week and twice on Sundays. 

It will be a bit disappointing if Michigan does not emerge from the region and punch a ticket to Tampa, but I don't think it will be a total failure. They are the most likely team to come out of this regional, but both PSU and MTU could beat 'em. It's a single elimination hockey tournament. The most important thing is the 2022-23 Michigan Hockey team now has a legacy, secured this past weekend in the B1G Hockey Tournament. But another Frozen Four banner would sure be nice.

Comments

Alton

March 20th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^

Regarding women's hockey...I'm all for it.  But where do you put the women's hockey rink?  Or do you put the women in Yost and build a new rink for the men?  Or do you force them to split ice time in Yost (and force visiting women's teams into that completely inadequate locker room in the south end zone the way we force men's teams to use that)?

Those are your only choices.  But let me point out also that all of the best women's teams have their own rink (including Wisconsin and Ohio State) that they don't have to share.

I assume this is the logistical issue that needs to be solved.  I don't want Michigan committing to women's hockey without ensuring they will have one of the best facilities in the nation.  Remember when Dave Brandon just declared that the lacrosse teams were varsity...without first providing them with division I level facilities? 

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13300

lhglrkwg

March 20th, 2023 at 8:09 PM ^

Id bet at some point in the future we’ll have to move on from Yost and get a new arena and at that point I could see Michigan building a tandem arena with like 7k and 3k seating (or something) that or the women take Yost and the men go to a new arena. I thought the rumor was the mens team doesnt want to share the ice with another varsity team so a new rink solves that

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

MikeGP90

March 21st, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^

I hope you're wrong.  We don't need any more sanitized, mid-sized, plastic-seated arenas which look and feel like every other arena out there.  Yost is a major advantage in terms of atmosphere, which in turn helps recruiting.  

I'm all in favor of building the women's team a new rink and getting a D-1 program off the ground.  But maybe we can start with the athletic department paying for the club team's ice time?

Joined: 11/23/2020

MGoPoints: 67

kyle.aaronson

March 20th, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^

It took Rutger a while, but I think he finally found his niche on this line: he's the garbageman.

It felt like for most of the season he was trying to find a spot in the slot or near the dots, hoping that Fantilli and Brindley could set him up for a shot. This never felt right (at least to me) because I don't think his shot is top notch, and he wasn't particularly adept at feeling out those spaces. His two goals against Minnesota were beautiful, garbageman goals, though––he was a net-front presence, battling for rebounds and loose pucks off bounces, and stuffing it into the net with quick stick skills in tight spaces.

As a former garbageman, this is a very happy development indeed.

Joined: 08/04/2010

MGoPoints: 4165

Richard75

March 20th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^

Great reference to the Devils. But regarding bone-crunching defensemen: Everyone remembers Stevens, but the best player on the team was Niedermayer, a totally different kind of D (he was the fastest skater in the league).

Joined: 09/23/2008

MGoPoints: 5291

805wolverine

March 20th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^

I'm still learning hockey, but certainly familiar with the often unfortunate random nature of single elimination hockey, and just wondering if there could be a reasonable alternative for the national tournament, at least at the region level?  The first round series in the Big Ten tournament is best of 3, but I'm wondering if you could adopt a double-elimination structure similar to college baseball/softball?  Would that extend the season too much?

And of course obviously the regions should be on-campus of the top seeds.

Joined: 06/15/2018

MGoPoints: 1184

Alton

March 20th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^

A four-team double-elimination tournament would be way too long in hockey.  You can play one in softball in 3 days or in baseball in 4 days, but it would take 5 days in hockey, because a team can play as many as 5 games in a 4-team double elimination tournament.  A hockey team can't play 2 games in 1 day like a baseball or softball team can.  And anyway I wouldn't want to see the quality of hockey on the ice if a team is playing its 5th game in 5 days...and imagine if a couple of those went multiple overtimes too.

You could replace the regionals with 2 weeks of best-of-three series--and there is an "off week" between regionals and the frozen four to fit those in.  I think the bigger priority, at least for me, is to get these games to home rinks.  But best-of-three only works if the better seeds are playing at home.

Yes, this would be awesome

Canisius at #1 Minnesota
Michigan Tech at #8 Penn State
Cornell at #5 Boston University
Ohio State at #4 Denver
Western Michigan at #3 Michigan
Minnesota State at #6 St. Cloud St.
Merrimack at #7 Harvard
Colgate at #2 Quinnipiac

And then next weekend the winners pair up at the homes of the better seeds.

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13300

lhglrkwg

March 20th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^

It drives me nuts that so many NCAA sports do home site regionals or at least higher seed hosts including DIII mens hockey and DI womens hockey but we do not. I get that there are perhaps logistical issues for some rinks but if other levels of college hockey can swing it, so can DI mens

As usual, I think the real reason is that lots of teams with no hopes of ever being a top 4 or top 8 seed love the randomness of single elimination hockey since it so obviously favors them

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

stephenrjking

March 20th, 2023 at 7:01 PM ^

Should Michigan retain Naurato?

With this level of results, the answer *seems* obvious, and the consensus on this board certainly seems to be settling on "yes." But, of course, there *is* more than just ephemeral results.

And according to the chatter on the hockeycast, John Bacon thinks that the department is considering moving on from him. Whether that is true or not, the possibility that this is still in question means that it is a very relevant topic of conversation.

I've spoken about it before. I'm going to try, more comprehensively, to argue the case. For the sake of argument, I am going to argue as if Michigan had a season with a less impressive topline result--no B1G tournament title, and a bubble-level team for the NCAA tournament. This is to be fair, we don't want to be over-wowed by the most visible results that may not reflect everything that happened in the season.

So, here we go:

1. Coaching acumen
Naurato appears to be a very smart coach. He is known to be good at developing players. Sam Stockton's reporting throughout the year suggests (I am using reserved language here but I think it's actually more than this) that he is also smart at scheming offense, incorporating advanced and sometimes genuinely innovative ideas to develop the team. And the team has shown progress, particularly late in the year, in adapting and growing as it plays on the ice.

The team is, obviously, a bit shaky defensively, and a bit inconsistent in certain areas. Some have used this to argue against Naurato. And, well, it is true that it's not great. But between a goalie position that took a step back, a young roster, and the very frank truth that Naurato didn't exactly have time to hire or study defense in any real depth when he was given the job, I think it's reasonable to think that he is capable of strengthening these areas. In fact, I am somewhat confident that he will. 

I think there is a good chance that Naurato is more than "just a guy:" The impression from small glimpses, admittedly from a position as a fan who doesn't understand the game like a pro, is very good. A bright hockey mind, the kind of guy who innovates and sets the standard for years. There is good reason to give him a chance to prove it. 

2. Navigating challenges
Naurato has shepherded the team through an absolutely chaotic year and done well despite remarkable headwinds. The former head coach was dropped in a manner that was terrible for the program and Naurato was installed with a month to get ready for the season. A bad viral outbreak cost him serious man-hours through multiple key game weekends in the fall when a young team is still coming together, and one of his starting-level players nearly died. There have been injury issues and a large number of guys leaving for world juniors, including the best player on the team, who missed an extra weekend (against Michigan's arch-rival). This level of turmoil is difficult for any team; Michigan is going on three years of such turmoil, and suffered an unexpected public program decapitation, and still the team soldiered on.

3. Talent and roster management
Related to this: one can argue, with good reason, that Naurato benefits from a roster that was built before he became the coach. Indeed, this is the most significant question about his suitability for getting the permanent job: there is a ton of talent on the ice, and he's not the one they signed up to play for.

...But there are two significant points in his favor here: First, from the outside it appears that he is a significant factor in Michigan's recruiting success and is attractive to top talent. His role as a player development coach helps here. But Michigan is still recruiting well. 

Second, and this cannot be overlooked: Roster management is a huge part of coaching, and retaining talent is a huge part of that skill. The Michigan hockey team is stacked with guys that are in demand. Throughout the summer, Michigan had man it called its head coach who did not have a contract. Then they decided not to retain him... and every single player stayed. Guys like Luke Hughes, a top 5 NHL draft pick, who could sign at any time and play in the minors (and maybe in the League!) right away. Guys like Adam Fantilli, the presumptive #2 pick in the draft, who could join the OHL at any time. Michigan hockey has suffered such dramatic attrition in offseasons that fans have coined the term "Michigan Hockey Summer" to describe it. And in a year where Michigan has some of the best young hockey talent in the world, when the head coach they committed to play for is dumped amidst a storm of public controversy... they all stayed.

Frankly, Naurato *must* have played a huge role in this. Through the summer as Mel was sitting without a contract, and especially after, even without the job. Naurato has proven the ability to retain a roster. That's not a small thing. 

4. Getting the right guy
All that said, is making him the permanent coach a bit of the roll of the dice? Well, yes. Maybe he benefits from what Mel built; the program was certainly humming when he stepped in. 

But *any* hire is a roll of the dice. And that is particularly true for college hockey. College hockey is not a sport where there are some big-name college coaches making many millions of dollars that Michigan can throw money at. Who is a sure thing?

If you scan recent elite teams in college hockey, you might run across Jim Montgomery, currently coaching the NHL-leading Bruins, and David Carle, who coaches for the school that honored his scholarship after he medically retired from hockey. You might run across Scott Sandelin, with three national titles. Is he a realistic option?

Well, no. First, college hockey coaching is not worth so much money that guys just move all the time for a bigger contract. Second, Sandelin is embedded in Minnesota and his roster-building methods might find things in Michigan a bit tougher.

Third, and this is crucial: Mel Pearson was dismissed due to behind-the-scenes actions, at least some of which could be (and, I believe, have been) argued to be part of "hockey culture." Well, I'm no insider up here in Duluth, but I do live in the city, and Scott Sandelin is an old-time hockey guy, respected more than liked, challenging enough that his son chose to play at another school. 

Frankly, one of Michigan's challenges is that the next guy they hire can't just be a good on-ice coach, he has to have the right sort of approach off the ice as well. If Naurato has that kind of approach (and this is where we have no idea and can only guess), they've already got a man with a crucial box checked. 

It's hard to hire a sure-thing college hockey coach, and even harder when a certain number of the best ones are men who may not be appropriate for Michigan's current situation.

Well, there it is. A wall of text. Four reasons that I believe argue in favor of making Brandon Naurato the permanent coach of Michigan hockey. None of them depend upon Michigan winning the Big Ten tournament or getting a #1 seed. Michigan *did* do those things, of course. But I believe Naurato has earned the opportunity to be the permanent coach and show what he can do at Michigan even without them. 

Hire Naurato. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143889

lhglrkwg

March 20th, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^

And according to the chatter on the hockeycast, John Bacon thinks that the department is considering moving on from him

If Warde lets Narauto walk after this season as an interim guy in his first year ever as a HC with basically zero offseason time to prep then I am jumping both feet in on the Wardes gotta go train

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

Alton

March 20th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^

You know...if they don't keep him here, I would imagine that there is a non-zero chance of Naurato ending up as the head coach at Wisconsin (or Ohio State, if Wisconsin hires Steve Rohlik) next year.

I would jump on that train with you if something like that happened.

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 13300

Michigan Arrogance

March 20th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^

How much of an issue is the fallout from the Pearson situaton? I mean, Mel was one of the 'good ole boys' in the game generally (across cawlidge hawkey and canada) and in the M program (all the alums I'm assuming would side with Mel, given the choice). I have to think the lack of tag removal is partly, or even mostly, due to a severance of ties with the old guard of the program and that would not be ideal in the eyes of Warde.

IDK, there has to be a reason other than, "M doesn't do. contracts during the season" but maybe that's all there is to it?

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 35513

BlueNE

March 21st, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^

I just listened to Sam and JUB.  JUB makes some points which are hard to disagree with.  Fair points he makes on coaching:

  • As has been pointed out, the defense this year has been undisciplined much of the time 
  • The PK lacks intensity
  • Overall team effort has varied from game to game, period to period
  • I got the sense he doesn't feel Naurato is intense enough - maybe too analytical?  Maybe not demanding enough with the players?
  • He cites unnamed "NHL types" and former Michigan players who agree with him.  

It felt like this was more JUB's analysis than a formed opinion from the Athletic Department.  And in the second half, it started to sound a little like "Narauto hasn't paid his dues" like Muckalt and Wiseman, which I, personally, have no time for.  Michigan Hockey gave him the opportunity and Narauto's team hasn't been perfect, but in a very tough situation, they made the most of it and have more potential wins in front of them.

JUB does say that the most likely scenario is that Michigan removes the interim tag, but that he believes that Michigan should look around at other options based on the concerns above.  It's a good listen. 

See you in Allentown!

Joined: 11/24/2013

MGoPoints: 300

stephenrjking

March 21st, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^

Not responding to you here, and I will hasten to add that I’ve only read your report and not heard what JUB actually said, but I’ll respond a bit.

To the first three points: those may well be valid observations. Something to watch going forward, things for Naurato to work on.

But also: inconsistent? Questionable PK intensity? Disorganized defense? Occasional effort issues?

Sounds bad. Also, sounds like some other talented Michigan teams we’ve seen under Red. 2001, 2006 and 7, 2013, to name a few that come to mind.

Regarding “intensity:” this is an open question, but, uh, intensity could be considered a direct contributor to what happened to the last coach.

Regarding unnamed NHL types and former players: can’t take much from that. Other unnamed NHL types gush about Naurato’s offensive game plans, and some named former players have publicly advocated for him to be given the job.

I didn’t cite those things in my post because offensive schemes are only one component of coaching, and former players who like the guy aren’t always reliable, either (I also think you have to take opinions with current teams with a grain of salt—so-called “player’s coaches” are often popular and are not always effective as the head guy. Think Bobby Williams). 

Again, not clapping back at you. I do not deny that Naurato is still unproven in many key ways, agree that there are some unanswered questions, and hope to see growth. My main point is that he has earned the ability to answer these questions as Michigan’s permanent coach. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143889

lhglrkwg

March 21st, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^

Sounds bad. Also, sounds like some other talented Michigan teams we’ve seen under Red. 2001, 2006 and 7, 2013, to name a few that come to mind.

Yep. I was reading that and I was thinking the same thing. Michigan is wildly talented and doesn't always play up to their talent level? Wow! I've only seen that happen 5-10 times this century...

It honestly sounds like the kind of muckraking and searching for excuses that is more representative of someone stumping for a different name rather than valid criticisms of Narauto. 

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

BlueNE

March 21st, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^

I am with you, no clap back detected.  I look forward to your posts on Michigan hockey.  I am firmly in the camp that Brendan Naurato has earned the job with the teams performance this year.

I don’t want to overweight the last two games too much, but I think we have see some good coaching/game planning in the last two wins. Specifically, beating OSU’s heavy forecheck and clamping down on Minnesota in the third period. 

Joined: 11/24/2013

MGoPoints: 300

Packer487

March 21st, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^

Also it's probably a bit unreasonable to expect an interim coach to have put his stamp on the team when he took over the team in FREAKING AUGUST because of the inaction of the AD. (And I'd venture a guess that the defense/PK would be somewhat better at this point if their best defensive defenseman hadn't missed the past two months.) 

We don't know what type of defensemen Brandon Naurato wants, if he has the players to play the system he wants to run, etc. 

And as you pointed out, it's not like Michigan has been a beacon of defensive dominance most of the past two decades. They've had years here and there.

If you think he is lacking in the "head coaching" department in some fashion, the formula is right over in Denver. What'd they do for David Carle? Oh, he has two former D1 head coaches as his assistants? Hmm. (They pretty much did that for Juwan as well.) 

I don't have any inside info on why Muckalt would have been passed over, but the optics of firing Pearson for all the reasons and then turning the team over to an assistant that had been with him for years on end may not have looked great. My total guess is that Muckalt will move on after the season. 

One other point: I estimated that we'd be giving up 0.4 fewer goals per game if we were taking the number of penalties that Minnesota does, which would put us more middle of the pack in GAA. They've been MUCH better over the past few games. (Only 2 majors in the past 7 games. Estapa has only taken 1 penalty since he was benched, and that call was trash.) 

Joined: 10/17/2017

MGoPoints: 581

Blue In NC

March 21st, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^

As you say, even with all of the above, there are two potential scenarios to consider:

1. Michigan is on the fence about Narauto and has already identified another potential successor or a few of them (no one is a sure thing but they feel very good about this/these candidates and have had some preliminary discussions/indications) that they feel could be an upgrade and/or a person with more proven record.

2.  Michigan is on the fence about Narauto but has no firm ideas about a potential successor other than just some names on a list or some vague thoughts about who they might talk to.

If it's #1 and they decide to at least pursue or consider #1, then I might have reservations about that but at least I could understand that.

If it's #2, then I cannot support that (unless of course there are major internal issues we don't know about). 

At the very least, Narauto seems like potentially a high upside guy, that may (who knows?) have some internal flaws and lacks a proven record, but has avoided a disaster season despite some very difficult challenges. And unless you have a high upside and sure thing identified, what is the harm in rolling with Narauto for another 2 years to see if things improve and if they don't, you can move on 2 years later?  Recruiting will probably be in good shape even 2 years later so you are not in an obvious worse position.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 8576

BTB grad

March 21st, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^

I got the sense he doesn't feel Naurato is intense enough - maybe too analytical?  Maybe not demanding enough with the players

Not responding to you but rather JUB & the Michigan AD: Why is this a must? We fired a coach who had an old school intense approach that was in part responsible for fostering an abusive & toxic atmosphere. Winning without having an abusive/toxic environment seems like the best route… Warde is off his rocker and needs to go if that’s truly one of the things he’s hung up on. 

Joined: 12/01/2015

MGoPoints: 23507

lhglrkwg

March 21st, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^

I barely even understand the conversation the AD is having. So Brandon is

  • a first year head coach
  • who had basically zero off season to prep
  • who has kept recruiting going
  • who took a talented but very young team to 2nd place in the best Big Ten we've seen yet, won the tournament title, and has Michigan at #3 overall going into the tourney

and we're like 'do we keep this guy?'. I don't get it. What more could you want from any coach put into the situation Narauto inherited?

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

lhglrkwg

March 20th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^

I swear if I hear one more Gopher whining about the net being kicked off I am going to become the kenpom of college hockey so I can show the world that Mariucci is the 62nd of 62 in Adjusted Net Staying On The Pegs Efficiency

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87934

matty blue

March 21st, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^

one. HUNDRED. percent. booing the net is a whole new category of bitchiness.  top that with the weird freakout over the offsides call (which extended up into the booth, also peopled by whiny assholes). 

it's weird - i actually went to the 2002 frozen four game and i remember thinking that the fans were great...the difference, in retrospect, is that it was a "neutral" site, also populated by a the fans of dozens of other teams' fans.

it's my contention that many "great crowds" are, in fact, entire arenas and / or stadia of whiny assholes.

Joined: 08/01/2008

MGoPoints: 39201

MEZman

March 20th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^

"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die."

 

Show this quote to Dave on the Hockeycast... he'll have no idea since he's never seen it. 

 

Edit: HockeyCast is already recorded, dang.

Joined: 12/13/2008

MGoPoints: 15321

MaynardST

March 20th, 2023 at 11:08 PM ^

Can I get an explanation for the location of the regionals?  How come two (arguably three) are in the East and one is in the West.  Doesn't anyone take into account that Western teams have won the national championship more than twice as often as Eastern teams?

Joined: 06/27/2010

MGoPoints: 630

I Bleed Maize N Blue

March 20th, 2023 at 11:46 PM ^

Once upon a time there was hosting at college arenas. We won so much at Yost, a ferocious den of fandom, that other schools threw a hissy fit and forced the NCAA to go to "neutral sites." Over the years, it has been found that having hundreds of college hockey fans not fill your arena is not profitable, so some arenas are not interesting in hosting a regional. That means there are limited locations that will host. Allentown has been the closest to us the past couple years.

East coast schools have the advantage of being relatively close together, such that their regionals aren't so far from them. Maybe attendance is better?

Joined: 09/27/2008

MGoPoints: 58700

stephenrjking

March 21st, 2023 at 12:13 AM ^

The regionals are awarded by bids. There are supposed to be two eastern regionals and two "western" regionals, neither of which are ever west of the rockies, since "Western" in college hockey means "Big Ten and beyond." 

The eastern regionals do alright, because the two most significant eastern conferences, Hockey East and the ECAC, are all geographically clustered. Regionals rotate between places like Bridgeport, Worcester, Manchester, Providence, and Albany, all of which are no more than 2 hours from each other, all 2 hours or less from most of the major eastern schools. On BC's run of multiple national titles, at no time did they have to play a regional game further than 2 hours from home. 

In contrast, the western conferences (now the B1G, NCHC, and the re-formed CCHA) have large fanbases and lots of schools, but are much further spread out. Regionals are awarded to arenas, but sponsored by participating schools, and if a school makes the tournament they are guaranteed to be placed in their bid regional.

*If* they make the tournament. But it's hard to make the tournament and teams often bid and then fail to make it. I went to Green Bay to watch Michigan play in 2012. Wisconsin was the host, and they didn't make it, and the result was that the place was a tomb. 

So increasingly these neutral arenas don't bother to host. There are good arenas capable of doing it, but it's a huge risk if the local team doesn't make it, except for various North Dakota regionals where fans gobble up the tickets early assuming ND will make it. 

It used to be permitted for schools to bid to host at home. That produced the legendary Yost regionals of 98, 02, and 03. Michigan was undefeated in those regionals, winning three regional finals as a lower seed--thus the retreat from home sites and the current debacle we have today. Allentown gets a western regional because no arenas actually close to teams out here want to risk bidding for a regional and then have Michigan or Michigan State or Minnesota (depending on where the regional is) miss. So it's Fargo and Allentown and nothing in between.

It's old news now. Guys like Brian and David, and from the comment section guys like Alton and me, have complained about this horrible system  both here and in other places for what feels like forever. There is a constituency that actively works against the best interests of the sport to keep things the way they are. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143889

ShadowStorm33

March 21st, 2023 at 12:24 AM ^

I do agree that it's insane that Michigan (or BG) hasn't bid for Toledo to host. They have a great arena, the city has a rabid fan base for a great team (that until his retirement after last season was led by former Wolverine TJ Hensick), and it's only an hour from A2. Outside of bringing back campus sites, it would be the best scenario for us.

Joined: 07/22/2008

MGoPoints: 23063

ShadowStorm33

March 21st, 2023 at 12:14 AM ^

People have been bitching about this for years. You think it's bad for the West? The Midwest is who really gets screwed. There hasn't been a true Midwestern regional site since 2017 when Cinci had one (the Dakotas aren't really the Midwest--they're as far from A2 as the East Coast sites--and Allentown, less than 100 miles from the Atlantic, is on the East Coast). But yes, the bias towards the Northeast, at the expense of the Midwest and West, is ridiculous (there are plenty of years where they have three regionals in a small radius in what amounts to the Northeast, and one in the West with nothing in between)...

Joined: 07/22/2008

MGoPoints: 23063

stephenrjking

March 21st, 2023 at 12:27 AM ^

Allentown isn't quite in the eastern regional quadrilateral, but it's close: less than three hours drive from Bridgeport, only 5 from Boston, 5h30 from Manchester where the other eastern regional is. In contrast, it's 20+ hours from Fargo, and a good 8 hours from Ann Arbor. No Big Ten team except Penn State is remotely close, much less NCHC or CCHA teams. 

 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143889