MGoPodcast 13.25: The Derrick Walton Line
1 hour and 52 minutes
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1. Post Villanova
starts at 1:00
The shots didn’t go in. They were higher quality, and Nova was 30% from their contested threes, and that was the way Michigan could win this game but the shots didn’t go in. Also the shots didn’t go in. We run out of ways to say that.
2. Postseason
starts at 16:48
Who’s coming back? Houstan probably. Diabate on the knife edge. Dickinson we think we can talk around to it. Both? Hnnnggh.. Johns? Eh. Who’s in the portal that Michigan can get? Then we go through next year’s playable roster.
3. Hot Takes and Hockey
starts at 48:46
Wisconsin fans must be livid at Will Smith. Brian gets his USMNT takes in, in fairness to Brady Hoke. We talk about when to pull your goalie in a game where Michigan’s goalie kept it from being 4-4 when Quinnipiac suddenly gained the momentum—some of those were flukes though. Look ahead to the Frozen Four.
4. Women’s Basketball
starts at 1:34:22
Incredible run ends the same way their Big Ten run did: without Brown for the stretch. A salute to Naz Hillmon and her generation, and what they’ve done to build this program into one that can take the next step into regular tourney threat by hanging with the elites.
MUSIC:
- "Hollywood Freaks"—Beck
- "The Gambler"—Johnny Cash
- "Aurora"—The Foo Fighters
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct Download Link
- What's with the theme music?
You just said you're a Michigan fan with more words.
See Michigan player.
See Michigan player backing into Nova player.
See Michigan get called for a foul for being dastardly.
March 29th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
That no call and the “clean” block where the Nova player went through the back of Diabate’s head to get to the ball were the 2 plays that stood out to me. Still, make a few more free throws and layups, and maybe we advance.
I saw UCLA start all juniors and seniors in the tournament and thought wouldn’t that be nice.
If all of those come back then there is no portal and actually someone on the roster has to leave or one of the ones signed can’t come on scholarship. The roster is full at 13 with the incoming recruits.
March 29th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Given one those recruits bears a striking resemblance to the head coach, he might be able to swing tuition.
Why not have both Howards not on scholarship and max out the roster.
March 29th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
Basketball is relatively generous with its scholarship limits compared to, say, baseball or hockey, where you can barely field a team on full rides. Most teams have a rotation of 7 to 9 players, so you already have 4 to 6 scholarship guys not on the court at all.
Basketball gets 2.6x the number of starters in scholarships. Football gets 3.7x. Hockey gets 3x (though reserves get much more playing time in hockey than the above sports), and baseball gets only 1.2x.
March 30th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
Hockey's 18 scholarships limit is ridiculous. It takes 19 just to fill out 4 lines of forwards, 3 lines of defenders, and a goalie.
I mean idk how else you can maximize your chances when your 7 fter can’t hit layups or dunk.
March 29th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Offense comes and goes. Defense carries a team further-this is the relative issue.
March 29th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Relatives! Amirite?
Hunter wanted to come back for one more year. Maybe he just doesn't want to come back to college and its not an NIL issue.
Also Diabate isn't an NBA 5. Maybe he could survive short spurts but if he's making himself a lottery pick its because he developed a jump shot and can play the 4 at the NBA.
March 29th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
Diabate has the offensive game of a 5, with flashes of being a 4, and the defensive game of a 4, with flashes of being a 5. He could be successful with a player who does the opposite, but in general I see him developing further as a 4.
I don't know the NBA but don't you basically need to be a 3 point threat to be a 4? He hasn't shown that yet. And he's 6'11" and long. Sure he's too skinny to play the 5 now in the NBA but he's a freshman. I feel like he's more likely to be able to bulk up than be a 3 point threat. Good chance he does both though. Really hopes he stays another year. No guarantees about improving but I feel like Diabate at the 5 and Houstan at the 4 with some Camp Sanderson and off season practice is the best case scenario for next year.
March 29th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
I'm not buying "the shots didn't go in". Rather, we tried to force it inside and Villanova was able to clog the paint and disrupt Dickinson and Diabate. Taking more outside shots, which were going in, would have opened up the paint.
March 29th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Agreed. A lot of those misses weren't 80% shots where we got a bunch of 20% results. Those were more like 50/50 or less. We were forced and Nova was able to clog and pester enough to make it difficult.
Also agreed. Michigan definitely missed some shots they should have hit but just because you're close to the basket doesn't mean it's an easy shot. Villanova contested well. Jimmy Jackson pointed it out on one possession. Hunter bullied through a couple players but it's hard to be that aggressive and then put a soft touch on the ball even if it's close. I believe that one basically hit the back rim and bounced out. Nova wasn't that tall but they had some thick dudes. But Michigan only needed a few more to win it. Still frustrating.
March 29th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
Using some Torvik numbers:
Johns had a projected PRPG of 3.2 (similar to '22 DeVante Jones, '21 Eli Brooks, or '21 Mike Smith in terms of impact). Instead he had an actual PRPG of 0.1 (similar to '21 Terrance Williams, '19 Eli Brooks, or '17 Xavier Simpson). That is a massive dropoff all in one player that does explain most of Michigan's miss from preseason expectations
Yeah, Johns playing as poorly as he did absolutely submarined the potential for this team. Like, I'll cut Houstan way more slack being a freshman than a senior who has shown potential before.
See full comparison here:
Houstan, Bufkin, and Collins also missed on expectations but credit to Brooks, Dickinson, Jones, and Williams for exceeding.
Am I the only one who thinks this is kind of the worst tournament ever? I mean, the final 4 is UNC, Duke, Villanova and Kansas so I guess that goes without saying...but, it seems like there weren't really any great teams.There were plenty of upsets, sure, but it seemed like that was more a product of the high seeds not playing well or being overrated (and in some cases, officiating incompetence/treachery). I'm really annoyed because Michigan couldn't hit any easy shots vs Villanova and got bounced. BUT, I feel like they easily could've gotten by Houston...and now the rest of the Final 4 doesn't look that scary. Am I crazy to think that if Michigan was still alive they'd have a somewhat decent chance of winning the whole damn thing? And they were pretty terrible all year! What a weird tournament.
[Great Beck song by the way and I had forgotten that FF song, RIP]
I like where you're going here, but you would indeed be crazy. There don't seem to be any elite teams, and Michigan has a lot of talent, but even with the tournament we just watched, no team in college hoops has as many unexplainable clunkers in them as Michigan. Definitely their year, but still had a good run at the end.
UNC, TCU, and Providence were all more inconsistent than Michigan, as measured by standard deviation of Torvik's game score value.
Dunno about worst ever, but I do find that in recent years by the time we get to the final four I am exhausted, and have lost interest. The first few days absorb me a lot, but. . .
Absolutely disagree they could have easily gotten by Houston. Transitive property doesn't work well. I'm not sure what you mean by the final 4 goes without saying. Presumably a negative. But it's normal. There are always upsets but the final 4 is usually top tier teams. There were a ton of close games. St. Peter's was the first 15 in the elite 8. I don't get how people can complain about this tourney.
Did you guys forget Isaiah Barnes exists?
March 30th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Brian mentioned him, but I thought he's at least another year away from being ready for significant minutes.
To me, the game looked a lot like UCLA last year. The V defense was physical and kept M off balance most of the game. I don't blame M for missing all those shots at the rim. They had to fight harder than ever just to get position, leaving them just enough off to make the shots uncomfortable.
NU baseball coach is a neighbor. I believe he (and this applies to doctors who teach in the medical school as well) is treated as a professor, and as such, his kids get 90% off tuition at Northwestern. Coach Howard's kids' no doubt qualify for the same.
And while I'd like to think smart minds in Ann Arbor are currently working on solving the Hunter/Diabate NIL situation in a thoughtful manner, I fear the worst. UofM feels like a lumbering dinosaur on matters NIL so far. Maybe I should read the Will Johnson piece before passing judgement, but where's the fun in that?
Coach Howard's kids' no doubt qualify for the same.
I doubt it. Mattison left for ND in part for tuition break (free? I don't remember exactly) for his daughter. Private universities can do more than public ones in this regard.
I love listening to you guys and there were a couple of great points made in the MBB section....but it was a wild ride to get there and a lot I didn't agree with.
The key point is what Brian said...we need a 2 next year. That's the #1 need regardless of who returns. However, I don't agree that it should just be a shooter. I think we need someone who can take some usage and ball handling from the PG. We have doubts about Dug and Frankie, we have concerns about wing defense, we have concerns about shot creation. Meanwhile we have 3-5 forwards who can be spot up shooters already on the roster.
I also liked Seth's point about Moussa being more of a 5 and still having some draft juice. But I don't agree with the highly negative Caleb takes while still giving Diabate praise. Both were basically the same this year...guys who failed to live up to their primary expectation that their draft potential was based on. For Caleb he actually was a good shooter overall in conference games, but he was a one dimensional and highly variable one. For Moussa he was a better offensive player than we thought, but he was poor at defense and rarely displayed the supposed lateral or vertical athleticism we expected. Moussa looks like an NBA player, but both basically showed they are at least a year away.
All that being said, for all the frustration, they both finished as top 25 freshmen per Torvik this year. Only the very elite stand out, most are bad defenders, and ideally you are using them as role players not high usage guys.
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&yvalue=Fr&cvalue=High%20Major&year=2022&start=20211101&end=20220501
March 30th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
I do not see how Diabate and even remotely consider declaring PRO even for the Mexico painters league. His offensive skills devolved into an inability to even properly posses the ball much less do anything meaningful with it.
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