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MGoPodcast 13.19: Good RNG, Bad RNG Comment Count

BlueBarron February 15th, 2022 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 6 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

And let’s not forget our associate sponsors: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, SignalWire (use the code MUPPETS), Prentice 4M, where we recorded this, Team Fan Club, and introducing The View from the Cheap Seats podcast by the Sklars, who will now be joining us for the Hot Takes segments. Please go subscribe and like their podcast,and leave your hot takes about this game in the reviews.

1. Ohio State

starts at 1:00

Series split between Ohio State and Purdue probably helps tournament résumé overall. Michigan schemed a lot of nice, open looks but just couldn't get the ball to drop. Overall trajectory of the team is still optimistic considering the improvement of the defense. If Dickinson isn't having a good game against any legitimate competition then the odds of winning drops considerably (zero assists, 0-for-2 on 3s in this game). Michigan's ball screen offense, including passes, is better this year with Devante' Jones than it was last year with Smith, he just needs to improve 3-point shooting.

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

 

2. Purdue

starts at 17:43

Michigan scorches the top team in the conference because they hit their shots - particularly 12-21 on 3s. Hunter Dickinson being used as a decoy to get open looks has been successful in the playbook. Jaden Ivey was coming off ball screens all day in the first Purdue game, Michigan traps him in almost every screen this game. Seeing Michigan make that adjustment was a good overall sign for the coaching staff. Hunter Dickinson played really well despite being a bit injured. Big games this season are going to come down to RNG (random number generator). 

3. Football

starts at 32:45

Michigan hires Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator - good continuity candidate after Macdonald. Has coached college for a while so he should know what he's getting into in terms of college recruiting. Jay Harbaugh moves to safeties coach and will probably be good at that, too. Offense will probably go back to Harbaugh being the CEO with run and pass game assistants. Defense will need more good ideas to generate pressure because you won't have Aidan Hutchinson to generate pressure for you. 

4. Hockey Series vs MSU

starts at 44:36

Ok fine, Salt-N-Pepa's "Push It" might not be the most sexually explicit song ever, but Michigan has retained the most phallic trophy in college hockey - The Iron D. Michigan State is really bad at hockey and has been for quite some time. Their defensive philosophy is to have six goalies where everyone just tries to block a shot. Just completely non-competitive hockey games despite Michigan being without four players in the Olympics. Have there ever been four goals (two by each team) on one penalty kill before? Michigan needs to stop getting unnecessary majors. It will be a close finish between Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State for first place in the Big Ten.

MUSIC:

  • "Beat the Devils Tattoo"-- Black Rebel Motorcycle Club
  • "Western Saloon - Cartoon"-- Waldeck, Mud
  • "Forgot About Dre (Clean)"-- Dr. Dre, Eminem
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

 

"The Iron D stood for 'Daddy' so we're just going to go with that."

Comments

AC1997

February 15th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^

Excited to have a pod for my commute today!  I made it through the basketball parts on my way into work and had a few comments:

  • While I do agree that we missed open shots against OSU, I do think that under-sells what happened in the game.  I think there were three factors that didn't get mentioned enough:
    • Fourth game in seven days.  It was mentioned, but it clearly was a huge factor.  Hunter's leg is hurting, hasn't warmed up before the last two games, and his 2pt% has been bad as a result.  Meanwhile, look what happened to Purdue with their 4th game - they eeked out a win against lowly Maryland.  
    • No mention of foul shooting.  Despite all those dunk/layup attempts, Michigan shot only 6 FTs?  Meanwhile OSU's midrange game got them twice as many MAKES?  The refs allowed OSU's offensive players to pound away on our bigs and then get calls but we didn't get any.  Jones can't buy a foul call attacking the rim.  Reminds me of that Walton season where the refs just won't help him out like they do others.
    • OSU's defense was different. For the first time they switched screens on Michigan and we weren't prepared to attack that - likely do to the quick turnaround and tired legs.  We got open shots, but look at the quantity relative to Purdue - there just weren't that many.  How many good looks did Hunter or Houstan get in those games?  Half as many against OSU.
  • Matt is right that we don't have a "bad shots" guy late in the clock.  Last year Smith and sometimes Wagner could do that - though neither were great at it either.  Or we could get a fadeaway from Livers that was decent.  This year Jones attacking the hoop (which I want more of) is the only thing close and he's been better...but no help from the refs when he creates contact and goes down.
  • I also thought OSU's doubles on Hunter were better than we've seen recently and disagree with Seth that he did well with it.  They attacked very late, used their handsy guard more than Liddell, and Hunter had turnovers and inaccurate passes instead of hitting guys with good timing.  
  • The lack of a bench should be mentioned too.  Not only did we play 4 games last week, but we did so with almost zero contribution from the bench.  That's going to take its toll and when a guy is having an off night, we have no choice but to keep playing them 35 minutes.  Collins and Bufkin are almost unplayable and Williams and Johns you're just hoping don't screw anything up.  

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13821

TrueBlue2003

February 15th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^

Agree with all this.  The refereeing was pretty bad.  They gave OSU several calls when their bigs simply put a shoulder into ours but Jones was getting mauled on drives and didn't get calls.

My complaint about the bench is how Juwan uses his backups.  He usually puts them all in together in the latter half of the first half and I don't think that's optimal.  Johns and Williams are pretty low usage guys so it puts a lot of pressure on Collins who then turns it over a bunch.

I'd rather see him put in Johns and Twill a little earlier and keep Jones and Eli in to create for them.  Then put in Hunter with Frankie and Bufkin so they can just let Hunter go to work without as much pressure.

Remember, Johns was a starter last year on a team that was a basket away from the final four.  He's a good player and I think with the right combos he can be playing a lot more.  His plus/minus is usually quite good because he's a very good defender.  But need to play him with the creators on offense (Jones and/or Hunter).

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

BuddhaBlue

February 15th, 2022 at 9:53 PM ^

Johns started only because Livers was out, and that was the last 5 games in the postseason.

Granted, he did great on the big stage, he was hustling and the stats show it. (Pardon my random deep-ish dive, I've personally been curious as to what's up with him - always pulled for the guy)

In the first 23 games of 2020/21 (10 mpg):

  • PPG:  4 
  • FTAs:  only 18 total, or <1 per game 
  • RPG:  <2 

In the final 5 games, as a starter, against tournament teams (26 mpg):

  • PPG:  9.4
  • FTAs:  26 total, 5 per game
  • RPG:  >5 

His postseason stats are in a sense even more impressive because, despite scoring 8 points against UCLA, he basically did little else that game - 0 rebounds, FTAs, assists... 

So with more minutes, his production progressed accordingly/in a linear fashion, and also got to the line at a much greater clip. In fact, looking at his career, in all of his best games, he's gotten tons of FTs; he's a big and was playing like one. He was on a positive trajectory and his work rate was showing results. Keep in mind BJJ is the 12th highest rated recruit in Michigan history (since 247 has been tracking it)

So start him this year, right? Well, he did start for a bit

As a starter, in the first 6 games of 2021/22, against some good teams but also some bad, Prairie View and Tarleton (20 mpg):

  • PPG:  5 ppg
  • FTAs:  <2 FTAs per game
  • RPG:  2.5 rpg

Even with starter(ish) minutes, his production went back to last year regular season levels. Back to the bench.

He did return as a starter in game #9 against Nebraska (Diabate was out), and he exploded for 20 points, 2/3 from 3 and 6/7 from the line - all season highs. Then he was back on the bench

The next three games after Nebraska (10 mpg)

  • PPG:  2 total points, and they were from the line. He only tried 2 total FG attempts in those 30 minutes
  • FTAs:  3 total free throw attempts
  • RPG:  5 total rebounds

Then he got Covid 19...

8 games since coming back from Covid (about 12 mpg):

  • PPG:  <3 on 2.5 FGAs per game
  • FTAs:  2 total! 
  • RPG:  <2

Conclusion:  Brandon looks the part of a plus Big Ten starting big, he's got the size and he can stretch the floor a bit, and he's in year 4, third with Juwan. He had a bad 20/21 but had a great postseason run, and he was getting better with more minutes played. He emerged as a P6 starter.

But when given the chance to start this year and continue that productivity/be a leader as a senior with tourney cred, he regressed and got benched. Seems like he got focused against a bad Nebraska team, but laid an egg the next few games, caught Covid, and currently he's as unproductive as he's ever been. 

It's too bad, because by most metrics he was improving each of his first three years (link to viewable source of stats/acronyms)

Here's hoping he'll show up again in the postseason - if there is one

Joined: 01/06/2017

MGoPoints: 7324

AC1997

February 16th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^

I think the problem with Johns is that you can find examples of him being the player we want him to be....but those examples are few and far between.  One hidden part of the NCAA tournament last year was that matchups were more ideal for him with a true PF to match-up against.  He struggles in space, he struggles with confidence, he isn't the athlete some on this site have touted so his value around the rim is limited, etc.  To me, he's a classic tweener in that he isn't like Livers or Iggy in their ability to play 3 or 4 but he's not a unique enough athlete or player as a pure 4 to create a mismatch like we hope Diabate could be.  

I do think there's more upside to him than Williams because of his shot and size, but Johns has had plenty of chances to prove that without consistent results.  

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13821

mtzlblk

February 15th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^

despite Michigan being without four players in the Olympics

 

Isn't it 6 players (4 U.S./2 Canada) off the roster to the Olympics, or am I missing something? Google search seems to bear this out.

Joined: 01/20/2009

MGoPoints: 5019