MGoPodcast 13.0.b: The Rule of Kolesar
56 minutes
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This episode however was recorded at Prentice 4M, on the other end of The Bridge, started by a couple of readers to have the perfect, affordable, safe, and clean living/renting/working space near campus.
1. Macdonald’s Origin Story & D-Line
starts at 1:00
Brian does not like this idea of taking the Ravens LBs coach and making him the coordinator of a defense that looks like a 5-2 in 2021. The three guys they plan to start have talent but there are a lot of walk-on names behind them.
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Hot Takes and Linebackers
starts at 17:08
Not as petrified as we were in spring, except Brian. Only two linebackers there are. We try to talk Brian into Nikhai Hill-Green—Seth thinks this is a good development because Barrett struggled against Wisconsin in a more linebacker-ish role. Not worried about Mullings because he was a two-year project. Colson should be fun. Josh Ross is mentioned like “He’s good, next.”
3. The Secondary
starts at 30:43
Immediately rip off the band-aid and discuss cornerbacks. Brian is the positive(!) one about Gemon Green, at least in man coverage. DJ Turner II has plausible deniability, the two 2020 cornerback recruits do not. May it be Ja’Den McBurrows to the rescue mid-season? The safeties are either the best tandem in the Big Ten, or that just because they have Dax Hill, but Seth thinks he will be in nickel role a ton this year with RJ Moten blooming at safety.
4. How it All Fits
starts at 46:45
Please remember there’s a nickel for every spread. Difference between this and Wisconsin. Can it work? It can’t be worse. Maybe it can be 2011-style weird enough to kick the other team off the field sometimes.
MUSIC:
- “DayLight/NightLight”—Aesop Rock
- “Do I Wanna Know?”—Arctic Monkeys
- “I’m Still Alive”—Cake
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
Everyone’s got one. It’s called Hero or Nero or Spaceoid.
August 31st, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^
That was a depressing listen. Geesh. I don’t follow recruiting too closely anymore so I’m shocked to hear things have gotten so bad that we have a Brown U transfer in the two deep.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:11 AM ^
It's only getting worse, I fear.
My hope is that we can win 8-10 games and get Harbaugh solidified because one of the major things holding us back on the trail is the fact that his contract is setup to get rid of him pretty easily. Every school is using that against him and multiple recruits site the uncertainty of the staff as a reason they're going elsewhere. Either that or we have to move off of him quick before we have multiple classes that look like something MSU is putting together pile up and create another 7 years of Richrod and Hoke.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:16 AM ^
Yeah, Basketball had to take a transfer from Columbia last year, and Coastal Carolina this year to start. Boy they were desperate. That probably did not turn out well.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:30 AM ^
There are 85 scholarship players on a football team and 13 on a basketball team. Top 200 kids in basketball end up at smaller schools all the time, this is rarely the case with football.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
The flip side is that in basketball there are only 5 starters, so each starting player is much more important on an individual basis vs the 22 starters in football. You can hide a bad apple in football MUCH easier than in football.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Unless your bad Apple is your 2nd CB or a converted FB to NT…
August 31st, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
Got me there.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:19 AM ^
I really think, given the depth and lack of experience at almost every position on the team, the ceiling is 9-3. Like, wildest dreams, no injuries and the B10 is very down kind of best case scenario.
it’s just not a normal team - look at the depth chart by class and you can count the senior contributors on one hand-ish.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:28 AM ^
I'm eager for the season.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
Brian doesn’t like the Hutchinson designation, but every Cowboy fan wanted TJ Watt instead of Taco. Cowboys wanted a 4-3 end, not a stand up end. TJ is a top 10 player in the league and Taco just got cut again. How do you know Aidan cannot play this role until you watch? Answer: he just wants to be as least optimistic as possible. I understand but it’s a disservice to analysis.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
As I understand it, aren't they asking Ojabo and AH to be Lawrence Taylor rush OLBers now, whereas before they were asked to be DLs (albeit on the end)? IOW, They are essentially asking 270-285 lb guys to move outside the tackles primarily in roles that may be best suited for 250-265lb guys?
It's not that AH *can't* do well in this position that (AFAIK) is more rushing the QB and less dealing with OGs and OTs, it's more that are these guys suited to defend a position that requires more speed and less size? How much responsibility did 270-285lb guys have in defending throw to the slot recievers in the past? Tunnel screens, bubble screens.
TL;DR: Does M in this scheme have the speed in their front 7 personnel to defend non-Wisc offenses?
August 31st, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
AH will never weigh 270
August 31st, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
Ojabo is 250lbs, so your question is not valid with him. He would be playing opposite AH. Take a look at Mgofish’s depth chart. He really lays it out better than most.
https://mgofish.com/2021-future-football-roster/
August 31st, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
I am skeptical about any pro scheme working at the college level for many reasons but we will get a good idea in less than a week.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
3-4 isn't a pro scheme though. The worry is not having the right personnel. But hell, the line wouldn't really look much better in a 4-3. Still seriously lacking depth.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
I should clarify I don't mean the alignment but the overall complexity and individual player responsibility that is necessary to run such systems. Pro defenses are designed and modified to combat pro offenses - of which change every year. Take a successful pro system and then remove the complexity because college players don't have the talent or time to learn it leaves you with what?
Also, you need to have certain kind of physical talent (See AK47s post) - pro offenses for instance generally don't try and attack the outside on running plays because pro defenses are too fast - and this is what really worries me about this years defense - opponents attacking outside.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
Eh. I'd agree it's a problem if that's what he's doing but there's no reason to think he's making it that complex. He can pare it down for college. Also, frankly Michigan has smarter players than most teams. Let's use it. Things were too simple under Brown and went to shit when he lost the talent for it. Of course you need to hit the right middle ground, but offenses are too good now not to mix things up unless you have elite talent across the board. Harbaugh did say Mcdonald wants them to have a coverage down before moving to the next one.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
I don't quite get having your earthly being and energies so tied to a frickin' football team. In a sport that's so corrupt and lacking in any semblance of fairness to begin with. I mean, hell--we're among the lucky and privileged ones, those of us who went to the U of M. Pretend you went to Western Michigan and have known all along that the cards were stacked against you. I STILL don't want to be OSU and won't ever want to be.
What I'm looking for at this stage is a team that gets after it, plays with some panache, has some goddamned fun. It's been like a regional stage production of Hamlet around here for nigh on twenty years, with one weenie after another in the title role.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks"
August 31st, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Just get us to basketball season without Harbaugh hot seat talk and I’ll be pretty pleased.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
There's wisdom in the idea of dis-investing in the outcome of football games. This site is peppered with people who say they have done that, and it's resulted in a better, more healthy outlook on things.
Also, the whole college football landscape is going to undergo some massive changes in the next 10 years or so, and the odds of Michigan being in the "national championship relevance" conversation are low. To be fair, the odds are low for other big-name programs like Texas, USC, Notre Dame, and Penn State. We're going to see a separation of a handful of schools -- eight, maybe -- whose football programs will be side businesses with little connection to "amateur athletics."
But there is a silver lining: it's possible there will form a "next level down" consortium where the game of football returns to something akin to what it used to be, with some of the money removed, but more of the fun and school pageantry returned. One can hope.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
I genuinely think that everyone is so jaded by last season (covid and lack of practice, fell off rails). I don’t blame them either. I look at Wisconsin’s defense and they do it with less talent, less speed and honestly perform against top end talent with all of that. There is no reason this defense can’t be at least good. I get we aren’t perfect at every position, we never will be- we aren’t in that recruiting tear. This team with this talent, can be good though- top 4 in the big ten. If you throw out OSU, this defense has enough to be challenging for second best team in the big ten if the offense can provide enough. I happen to think the defense will be more consistent than the offense, hot take- I know. Health matters especially on the line as there is no depth for their needs of size but I’m staying optimistic. Seems every year we’ve had a major change defensive coordinator wise- the defense has been above expectation. I feel the same this year. Go Blue.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
I look at Wisconsin’s defense and they do it with less talent, less speed and honestly perform against top end talent with all of that.
They really, really don’t…
Since 2008, UM is 5-18 against OSU & PSU.
Since 2008, UW is 2-15 against OSU & PSU.
Since 2011, UM is 5-12 against OSU & PSU.
Since 2011, UW is 1-12 against OSU & PSU.
Since 2015, UM is 3-8 against OSU & PSU.
Since 2015, UW is 0-6 against OSU & PSU.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
That's not a measure of talent. Winning games isn't solely about talent.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
You had me until you said the defense will be more consistent. I think that's be bad news. The defense can be alright. An injury to basically any starter would be devastating. The offense has no reason to be worse or less consistent.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
The effectiveness of the 5-2 is really going to come down to whether or not it can dictate the flow of the game. If five linemen is too much for the opposing O-line to handle and the QB keeps getting Hutch in his face, there will be mistakes and breakdowns to take advantage of.
However, I'm skeptical this unit has the talent it needs to do so. The interior is still soft, the CBs are slow, and the linebacker unit--which is now tasked with doing more--is young and thin.
My point is that the defense is probably going to give Brian plenty of evidence to BPONE with, but I don't know if this season's results will be an indictment of the scheme. Right now, they don't have the personnel to run any defense.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm not so worried about the starters. It's the depth that worries me. DJ Turner will be interesting. His profile was a weird mix of not that good and maybe very good and pursued by Georgia. We'll see.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
I'm a Ravens fan, the fact that the Ravens defense works has no bearing on the idea it could work at Michigan. The Ravens defense works because they recently moneyballed the shit out of the NFL by looking at analytics and realizing good corners were much more important than elite pass rushers. So they went out and built the best group of cornerbacks in the NFL and put big bodies on the defensive line that constrict the pocket and don't let running plays get the edge. The defense works because the defensive line takes away the run up the middle and they can trust every one of their defensive backs man to man. Pressure is generated from using the linebackers and safeties to blitz like crazy. If you can't trust your defensive backs one on one you can't blitz and you stop generating pressure. The defense relies on two big things to work, an incredibly strong interior defensive line that consistently wins on the ground and defensive backs that can handle consistent man to man on an island. Michigan has neither of those this year. Macdonald could be a good coordinator and adjust, but the defense as the Ravens run it won't work with the personnel Michigan currently has.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
so much like Don Brown's D it doesn't work without top talent at CB is how I read this.
difference is Brown didn't like big guys at Dline.
September 1st, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
The point is that it doesn't have to be built exactly the same way to be effective. As Seth as said many times, they are going to take some risks and put guys where the offense doesn't expect them, and they will get some quick stops and turnovers. They will also bust big from time to time. This will probably be better on the whole than a defense that lets the other team's offense march down the field in 8-12 plays every drive.
As has also been repeated many times, the D had to scrap everything they worked on in spring and fall last year because it got torched. They tried to play cover 2 and cover 3 and were awful. Just actually doing what they practiced during the season should result in a significant improvement.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Honestly, you can have saved time with this podcast and jumped straight to the reality of the situation: Everyone from insiders to the coaches to even a casual fan knows there are two great players on this defense, a lot of “could improve or could be solid”, not much depth, a new scheme and a tough schedule. We all know it’ll be tough sledding and I can live with the defense showing improvement throughout the year.
If there was ever a season where Michigan under Harbaugh desperately needs to turn the offense loose it is this year. Use tempo. Embrace downfield passing. Pepper your best skill players until the other team stops it. Be aggressive on 4th down at almost all times. Use a 2 minute drill correctly. Our offense can be our best defense this year. The question is: Will Harbaugh embrace this thought or will it be more of the same offensively?
August 31st, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
That works as long as that dynamic offense scores points. If it turns into The Rockettes it's a long long slog for the D.
That's the advantage of the original Harbaugh-ffense. Even if they didn't score they at least kept the D off the field a bunch and kept them fresh. With the lack of depth on D this year, THAT is the way I would go.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
I see your point but respectfully disagree, unless you’re saying we should drain the play clock down to 1 against the meat of our schedule, then I would be on board.
I guess my point is we need to polarize ourselves with tempo; either grind the game to a slog by shortening it as much as possible or go as fast as possible to lock the defense on the field and wear them down. I prefer the latter but don’t have a problem with former. To my larger point, one more year of snapping the ball between 12-10 on the play clock is going to make my head explode and that’s the part of the ‘old school’ Harbaugh offense I won’t get behind.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
I've never seen polarize used outside of the scientific process, science adjacent items and marketing, but agree with your point. Either put pressure on the opponents D with quick tempo, or save your own D with slow tempo, none of this splitting the baby crap.
I'd even be on board with fast tempo against the tomato cans and slow against the better teams. I've seen other teams do such things. Sometimes I'm convinced our coaching staff just isn't very bright.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
Is it possible Harbaugh and Gattis totally want to have a modern offense but just don’t know how to? I’m hoping they put it together this year. I have a hard time seeing coaches intentionally holding their team back. Sometimes people try hard they just can’t get it done. The defense is going to be what it is.
August 31st, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
I think Harbaugh and Gattis both know how, but specifically with Harabugh so much of modern offensive theory (basically air raids with RPO's and QB runs) is way outside of his comfort zone that he is uncomfortable teaching it and/or implementing it. An obvious example was bringing in Gattis - a no-huddle offense was hyped and that ended up being true, however it was only true in a literal sense as they almost never press the envelope with tempo because the defensive coordinator and head coach bought into the theory (and I am not saying it does not have merit) that you need to limit snaps to keep the defense playing well. Because of that, you end up taking one of the best advantages of modern offensive theory out of you game plan by refusing to lock defensive personnel on the field because you still want to move the game slowly.
There are others, but that is the glowing example to me that the coaches do indeed want to do what OSU and other teams do on offense but are unwilling make to some sacrifices to fully implement it.
August 31st, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
there are a LOT of times coaches play it not to lose.
the issue with trying to run a fast paced offense and up tempo is mistakes, penalties, turnovers, missed assignments.
unless you have a veteran crew mistakes can kill you, our team is really young especially at QB who has to handle the ball every snap.
my opinion is we need to mix it up, run up tempo as well as use the clock at times.
throwing downfield is 100% a MUST do, and we NEED TO HIT some of those passes this year.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
What scares me is that getting rid of Harbaugh would mean another disappointing search for a new head coach. When Lloyd Carr retired, Michigan was still respected and Rich Rodriguez was hired after being turned down by Greg Schiano. Then Brady Hoke crawled over broken glass from San Diego to Ann Arbor. Humiliated...Enter the Savior. No longer respected, Michigan is the team that Ryan Day confidently threatened (promised?) to "hang a hundred" on. If Harbaugh goes the way of Robespierre, and Bobby Petrino is leaving voice mails, do you promote from within and keep the staff intact?
August 31st, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
Im not too worried, I think this team can win 9-10 games from what I’m hearing from my inside source. The D-Fence is going to surprise a lot because they are actually good. JJ pushed Cade all fall camp. I don’t like the doom and gloom talk because the last three recruiting class were actually good enough to do somthing in the B1G.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
Seems like we booted a fantastic D coordinator because we are perpetually over-matched by OSU.
And maybe because 2020 was stupid? Dunno, making decisions because of the 2020 'season' where kids sat out and transferred at will and practice couldn't happen and so many other crazy things...if your decision is based on crazy, isn't it crazy?
I fear this is about to be a very frustrating season.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
Brown's expiration date was 11/24/18. I appreciate giving him another year to figure out how to modify his defense to defeat what had been revealed as his Achilles Heal. (Personally, Florida convinced me it wasn't going to happen).
He couldn't do it, so either it's beyond him or his defense has been completely broken by those teams who can take advantage of it (which is every upper level B1G team). Probably the latter.
To top it off the trend has been back towards heavier D-lines, and that's not Brown.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
Brown got fired because the problems that showed up against elite teams in 2018 and 2019 showed up against all teams in 2020 and his recruiting was trash.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
I agree about the 2020 season. The important thing was not to panic, and I don't think the defensive coordinator change falls into that category. A change was probably needed because the defense had been slipping for several years, I believe. Use those NFL connections to get the best coaches.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
I think Don Brown is a good defensive coordinator, on a relative scale. However there are some obvious weak points here:
- Clemson still would beat up his top rated BC squads, any idea of a team we play every year that might be similar? Sure he basically stuffed OSU in a trash can in 2016 (until OT) and 2017 (until the final O'Korn interception), but OSU adapted and he was never able to adjust.
- His best defenses were made of guys he didn't recruit. His "Build a DT" strategy just missed too many times or took too long, and not capitalizing on the success of guys like David Long, Lavert Hill and Ambry Thomas to get some pure talent out at CB is frankly baffling.
- This doesn't get mentioned much but I think it has hampered overall development- He was very stingy about subbing out starters even when we were up big in the last third of a game or so. I think this artificially inflated some of our D stats and simultaneously made our backups less prepared to step in due to injury or attrition. How do I know this was a DB thing and not a JH thing? The OL, QB, RB would be all backups then DB is still sending out Cam McGrone/Devin Bush/etc. I don't care if those are the guys that get the signals and get everyone lined up, the value of playing those guys at that point is low.
August 31st, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
That was about how I expected it to go, though at some point it gets a bit annoying to hear the same "OMG, after the 3rd/4th guy on the roster it gets hairy" takes for every position. For NT, sure you want a decent rotation. But most teams don't have a lot of known commodities after the 4th safety or 5th corner. It doesn't mean those guys are going to be bad, it just means they're unknown.
I will also add that the 2011 defense was perfectly fine; it was 21st in the nation per SP+ and their TO margin wasn't insane; it was +.50. The only real outlier was they were 2nd in the country in fumble recovery, but they also only had 9 picks so perhaps that evened out a bit. Michigan replicating a similar top-20-ish defensive turnaround isn't out of the question, especially if they really do gel with a full offseason to prepare instead of last year's truncated development + MIA from a position coach.
August 31st, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
I think the uncertainty behind how good the starters are going to be leads people to look at what’s behind them so if the starters disappoint what are replacement options like. Not to mention the Dline is throwing more guys out there on a position group that wasn’t stocked to begin with. I too thought 2011 defense wasn’t to bad but like you said got fumbles and it’s unclear the 2021 team has the same potential to generate a decent amount of turnovers.
August 31st, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
I agree about the uncertainty but as Seth pointed out, it's more likely they'll mix nickel into the 5-2/2-5 configuration so there will be more positional variety and less reliance on certain guys. I don't think they'll have the same TO luck as 2011 had in terms of fumbles but I also think Green and Turner are probably better than Floyd and Avery were on that team, to say nothing of Daxton Hill moonlighting as a corner when necessary. So perhaps they'll have some more luck in the passing game.
August 31st, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
In theory I see that as ok. Rotating between 5-2 and 2-5 as alleviating the pressure on the line through substitution but I don’t think this team has the right players to rely on true outside linebackers. Which outside linebackers can come in and take on those blocks? Otherwise, I see them using standing up DLs. We’ll see what happens. I do think eventually they will recruit the players needed to mix it up effectively so long as the staff sticks around.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
Forget the 5th corner. The 2nd is an unknown.
August 31st, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Interior DL still seems to be a C+, even if Mazi and Jeter live up to camp hype. Speight getting more buzz than Hinton, some guy from Brown that nobody’s heard of in the 2 deep….
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