MGoPodcast 12.28: Figurative Cows
1 hour and 37 minutes
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1. Recapping UCLA
starts at 1:00
Shot quality disparity was huge, so the difference was really luck of the Juzang. Livers absence was noticeable because he’s your bucket man. Go down the line: Austin Davis and Hunter Dickinson are 50% at the rim. Missing 5 straight free throws. Wagner going 1/9 from the floor. Game-winning play gets Franz screamingly wide open and he hits nothing. Most flagrant hook and hold not called since the rule was put in place. Dickinson got scouted to death: right shoulder!
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Who’s Returning and Transfer Portal?
starts at 14:26
We think Eli is coming back, and Chaundee Brown is 50/50, expect the rest to go. Eli really helps where they have holes next year—if he was a great creator that would be even more. Don’t want to recruit over your guys, so if they can’t get back Chaundee might as well roll with the freshmen and see which can play. Haven’t ruled out Mike Smith (expected to sign in Chicago) or Austin Davis, but he’d have to take a 3rd role.
3. What’s Back for Next Year: Frontcourt
starts at 23:38
Dickinson should get more effective, more patient, develop more post moves. Moussa Diabate at the very least should be a monster defensive center and play 30 minutes between the 5 and 4. Switchable terror, vertical terror, has an outside shot and can put the ball on the floor. In case of emergency Johns can chip in but he’s your 4 we think. See some Williams if his outside shot comes around, especially with Dickinson. Not seeing Tschetter yet but Houstan could do some 4 as well. He’s your new Livers: shoot, play D, has some athleticism that makes him a top-10 recruit. Alternatives if no Chaundee: Isaiah Barnes—GRIII-2. Jace Howard: And ones!
4. Raw Takes and What’s Back for Next Year: Backcourt
starts at 44:51
Eli will have this team organized on both ends of the floor, strong defensive player especially when there’s a wing-sized guy like Smith next to him instead of another floor-bound dude. Frankie Collins is Smith-sized but bouncy, super-explosive, deadly in the open floor, radiates winner. Similar to Zavier Simpson there’s a shooting issue, but he’s not a set shotter like X so that could come around. Zeb Jackson needs to take the wheel—Michigan’s best case scenario is if he turns into a starter. Kobe Bufkin and Isaiah Barnes are two freshman shots at a SG who’s just a shooter. Bufkin is a big riser, combo guard size, can be a secondary playmaker, gives you a chance at a Dwayne Washington, though Washington needed another year. Where does the creation come from?
MUSIC:
- "Things Change"—Black Heat
- “Life”—The Walters
- “In the Garden”—Real Estate
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
Do you grade on how many shots were supposed to go in or actually did go in?
So depressing to think of all the missed opportunities to win the UCLA game and reach the Final Four.
So exciting to think of how good we were this year and all the talent that will be on the court next year and beyond!
Incoming talent next year is very exciting. Brooks and Chaundee coming back seems like best case scenario. I’m not so sure we need/want Z Jackson to take starting role as it seems like F Collins may be a much better player. Similarly Diabate is a freak but also pretty skilled already, and it shouldn’t surprise if he’s better than Johns from the get go. C Brown off the bench as 6th man has a much upside and C Houstan seems like a good all around player with size and high percentage 3 pt shot. I’ll predict:
starters: Collins, Brooks, Houstan, Diabate, Dickinson
main subs: Brown at G/F, Johns at F/C, and Bufkin or Jackson at G
Lesser of Jackson/Bufkin, Willams, Barnes, and Tschetter all fighting for spot duties
Without knowing the roster, I’ll predict: Brooks, Jackson, Brown, Johns, Dickinson.
Backups: Collins, Bufkin, Houstan, Diabate, Diabate.
That is the 2 deep on the first day of practice.
The Brooks scoop reminds me of the short reverse layup against UCLA. Ugh!
Glad he is pondering a return, though.
Eli would be a huge win given his defense and court sense. After watching Moussa and Caleb play this week on ESPN, I expect them to see a lot of action and Moussa has incredible upside. Collins is certainly athletic enough to play on day 1. Buskin just needs a little weight/strength.
I think folks are also sleeping on Barnes just based on rankings relative to the rest of the class; he is still top 100 and a fantastic 6’7” athlete who attacks. UM can easily add a high-quality player from the portal as well.
Future looks great in A2.
Franz was #110 on the composite. Johns was inside the top 100 at 70. Hunter is a stud and Juwan nabbed him. 2 points short of a FF.
Brian, Seth, Ace - Thank you for being a steadying presence over the last several months. I’m sure I speak for a lot of mgobloggers out there that it’s been a really tough go, but listening to these podcasts and reading your content has been a major bright spot that has brought a surprising amount of joy. Really appreciate everything that you guys do, and look forward to the content and laughs to come!
After last night's Gonzaga-UCLA game, all you can say is luck has so much to do with game outcomes! Why didn't Smith's (or Wagner's) shot bounce off the backboard (or rim) too? That could easily have been M v Gonzaga. And another reaction is that there are three teams about the same -- M, UCLA, Gonzaga -- and separated only by single shots at the end of two games. Somebody has to win; somebody has to lose!
Michigan played UCLA close, and UCLA played Gonzaga close, but that doesn't necessarily mean Michigan would have played Gonzaga close. Without Livers I'm not sure we had enough offensive firepower to keep pace.
1. Michigan w/ Livers
2. Gonzaga
3. Baylor
change my mind...
UM is undefeated at full strength this season too, Gonzaga and they didn’t play 80% of their schedule against cream puffs.
We were at full strength when we lost to Illinois.
I may be wrong, but I thought that was the game Livers was injured early?
He got hurt in the second half. The game was already pretty much over by that point.
Brooks was the guy who got hurt at the beginning of a game (MSU at Breslin).
There was a LOT to unpack here so I have plenty of comments. Thanks for posting this one. I fully expect a bunch more pods in the near future given the situation with seniors and the portal...not to mention we're actually going to see Juwan on the recruiting trail for the first "real" time.
Now, a few things about what the guys said:
- I would love to get Brooks back because of his versatility as a combo guard, his shooting, and his defense - all things we need. I originally wanted Smith because we need a ball handler, ball-screen, true PG....but Brooks will would be great.
- If Chaundee comes back...I doubt he's doing so for another 20mpg bench role as Brian implied. No way. He's coming back to start and play 30mpg. Now...is that what's best for the team? Maybe or maybe not. I love him as a 2/3 energy guy...not as a starting 2 who has to initiate offense or dribble.
- It does feel weird to say, but if both came back we'd have four veteran starters penciled in the year we bring in six freshmen with four of them in the top-60. Feels....a little dicey to what Ace said about recruiting over guys.
- As for Hunter's turnovers....I would love to see how many of them were due to offensive fouls. Ace attributed some to double teams, but I think more of it was offensive fouls (which is also a scout on him now - fall down screaming if you bump into him). I also think teams prevented him from getting to his spot the second half of the year and he had to move/dribble more. I don't think it was doubles.
- I love that the guys seem so confident Brooks is coming back and we aren't going to have anyone go into the portal.....I don't think we are ready to say that less than a week after our last game. I think the roller coaster is still going to happen to us.
- Sometimes I think the guys look at the players individually when projecting to the future rather than the team as a whole. We saw this last year when they all said Mike Smith would be a part-time back-up so Eli and Brown could start. You have to look at who's initiating offense, who's breaking the press, who's feeding the bigs, who is running ball screens. Some of that will change and evolve with the roster, but in this pod alone there were things like Barnes/Houstan playing the TWO! Jace Howard playing the 3 even though he only played the 4 in garbage time and doesn't seem to have lateral quickness to play the 3. Brown/Brooks staring in the backcourt....I just think we'll see more guards/wings/shooters than the MGoCrew sometimes implies.
- They assumed Livers is all but gone...and are probably right. But as a fringe draft pick who is now out six months and is considered injury prone....would he come back to rehab with Michigan and prove he's healthy? Is there any chance NIL happens this year?
I'd put livers coming back at like 5% chance for the reasons you mentioned. It's possible but really he's an NBA player and has left nothing off the court for Michigan. If it wasn't for the confluence of covid NIL battle and his injury he's 100% gone.
Ngl made me feel a lot better about the ucla game seeing that Gonzaga also needed a last second shot to beat them. UCLA was really inspired as hell this tournament, no shame now looking back.
was thinking ucla played most of the season stoned and decided to play the tourney after msu without substance abuse.
they were pretty damn good and really bother M with their hustle and constant jabbing at the ball/players. they also hit a LOT of key shots all tournament and for whatever reason their opponents couldn't hit FTs against them no matter what level they normally shot.
off postseason for them for sure
once we got past FSU I really thought it was Final Four time, didn't think ucla had a chance and we would finish them off in the second half.
was not to be, sad at a missed opportunity but with as cocky as this board was after FSU it seemed like it was inevitable we would lay an airball sized egg
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