Mailbag: Unbalanced Classes, Hockey vs Basketball, Further Hockey Expansion, Defensive Coach Turnover
[Eric Upchurch]
Brian -
If you're doing a mailbag any time soon, a potential question: does all the defensive coaching turnover dampen your expectations for the defense? Having three new coaches, including a new DC, has to impose some kind of transition cost, right? It would be frustrating to have what might be an excellent defense undermined by coaching changes.
Thanks.
-Joe
On the whole, no. For one, while Chris Partridge is a new coach he's replacing John Baxter, who did not work with last year's D. There are only two guys being replaced. Losing Greg Jackson is a blow, as by all reports the players loved him. The secondary's performance last year was a major step forward from everybody—even Peppers, who we had not really seen before, developed over the course of the season. It's likely that Jackson is very good at his job, and you always hate to lose a guy like that after just one year.
I have zero concerns about replacing DJ Durkin with Don Brown. Durkin's defense last year was very good until it collapsed late, and while part of that was on Glasgow's injury it was very frustrating watching Michigan play a spread option team with a safety lined up 18 yards off the LOS. You can't do that when the opposition has an 11-on-11 run game, and Michigan found that out the hard way. Since that was a thing that even a blogger was warning about…
So it's up to Michigan: ride with what got you here and try to hold up, or go to more of a zone based look in an attempt to replicate what just happened [against MSU]. The bet here is that Michigan enters with the latter in their pocket but tries to go toe to toe, combating zone with the addition of a safety to the end of the LOS and the corresponding blitz.
…and Michigan emphatically had nothing in their back pocket in the second half, I'm happy to see Durkin at Maryland. He could be a great coach, sure. He could be a guy who hung on to Will Muschamp's coattails and got exposed by Urban Meyer.
Meanwhile Brown has an excellent track record:
Bolded years are Don Brown; others are there for comparison. YPP is raw yards per play. FEI and S&P+ are advanced metrics that attempt to take schedule strength and various other factors into account.
Year | TEAM | YPP | FEI | S&P+ |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | Maryland | 56 | 63 | 75 |
2009 | Maryland | 87 | 64 | 44 |
2010 | Maryland | 14 | 20 | 31 |
2011 | Maryland | 83 | 74 | 102 |
2010 | UConn | 40 | 40 | 63 |
2011 | UConn | 56 | 23 | 34 |
2012 | UConn | 8 | 22 | 38 |
2013 | UConn | 64 | 56 | 72 |
2012 | Boston College | 63 | 81 | 80 |
2013 | Boston College | 92 | 98 | 80 |
2014 | Boston College | 30 | 68 | 36 |
2015 | Boston College | 1 | 5 | 3 |
It is possible that there's a settling-in period where Brown's D isn't as effective. The data don't show anything conclusive about that, with Maryland and UConn both getting significantly better in advanced metrics in year one despite a drop in yards per play. Meanwhile last year Michigan's defense was very good despite being in its first year of a new system.
Michigan can't get significantly better in advanced metrics and should expect a backslide just from regression to the mean, so I won't be judging Brown on how he does relative to last year's D… except against Ohio State. The absolute best news of the offseason to me is that Don Brown spent his time at Michigan's coaching clinic ranting about run defense…
Coach Brown believes that it all starts with run defense, “Check our record, 4 out of the last 5 years, nobody runs the ball. I don’t give a crap what I have to do, we’re going to stop the run.” Don Brown’s defenses finished #2 in 2011 (UCONN), #3 in 2012 (UCONN), #2 in 2014 (Boston College) and #1 in 2015 (Boston College) in run defense.
…and detailing the varied and intricate responses he's developed to zone read including inverted veer or "power read," as coaches seem to be calling it.
The result of last year's Game (and the one before that, and the one before that, and the one before that) cried out for a defensive coordinator who is awesome at stopping a power spread attack. Don Brown looks like the ideal candidate. I was getting pretty nervous for a couple weeks there when Rivals kept bringing up NFL guys—exactly the wrong kind of candidate for the biggest game on the schedule—and couldn't be happier with the way things worked out.
I'll be keeping a wary eye on the developments in the secondary but at least Brian Smith is a DB by trade and a DB coach until he was shoehorned in at linebacker a year ago; this isn't going back to Roy Manning, lifetime LB, as a CB coach. As far as the DC trade goes, I give it an A++++++.
[After THE JUMP: Jim Delany and the satellite camps, college hockey realignment stuff, hockey and basketball expectations.]
Delany on the satellite camps.
Hello Brian,
I am curious to get your opinion on Jim Delaney in regards to how he handled the satellite camps issue.
He is getting quite a bit of backlash from the board. I am no fan of Delaney, butut from my 10,000 foot view of the situation, there wasn't a lot he could have done on THIS issue. He voted against banning the camps, but the other Power 5 voted in favor of banning them (Why did the Pac-12 and Big XII vote in favor of banning them?) He was the odd man out.
It seems from reading your postings that you are also disappointed in how he handled this. What more do you think he could have done?
Wolverine Incognito
Is it unlikely that he could have singlehandedly gotten the matter tabled? I mean, at first blush, sure, but it certainly appears like there are a number of conferences who voted against the better interests of a majority of their members. Mike Leach says that Pac-12 coaches were 11-0 opposed to the ban with one abstention(!!!) and the league still voted for it. I have to imagine there was something Delany could have done to at least make the vote closer. Like, say, point out everything that is wrong with the legislation.
Meanwhile I don't even know if I want Delany opening his mouth to make a case because whenever he talks it's a disaster. But it is frustrating that Greg Sankey is making easily refuted arguments intended to hurt the league and the Big Ten cannot respond because its commissioner has so many feet in his mouth people call him Millipede. The league as a whole is undergoing a period of negotiation similar to that Michigan experienced under Super Genius™ Dave Brandon, where they eat crap (MSU/OSU home in same year, ND, etc) because everyone hates them and smile publicly about it.
If the Big Ten is going to get boned on every piece of legislation the least you can do is make an argument for your side, as Warde Manuel is doing right now. Issuing triple-vetted statements that say nothing isn't getting you anywhere.
[Eric Upchurch]
Shane Morris, receiver.
How seriously should we take Shane Morris at WR? On one hand, I don't recall reading any "chatter" about it. On the other hand, he's pretty athletic and didn't look half-bad, plus there's a lot of precedent for WR-QB switches and there would seem to be an opening for a few slot snaps each game behind Perry. And, like, putting in a little package of throwback/endaround plays that used Morris' arm as a threat a la the spring-game TD pass is something Harbaugh would actually do.
Not seriously. In a split-squad game with both outside starters held out and Moe Ways injured, Morris was the third option for his team. In the fall, Chesson, Darboh, Perry, Harris, Ways and some number of freshmen will all be way ahead of him on the depth chart. A lot of those freshmen can play the slot. This was just a lark forced by the dearth of receiving options this spring.
Hockey vs Basketball expectations.
Brian,
Long time reader, first time emailer. I’d love to hear your thoughts/explanation on your (and seemingly most of Mgoblog’s contributors) vastly different assessments of the coaching jobs done by Red and Beilein the last couple years, obviously culminating in the disappointing results for both programs this year. I am in the camp that believes both coaches have taken their programs as far as they can go, and that only a coaching change will improve the stagnant results and atmosphere around each time. Based on your posts after this weekend’s hockey games, it seems like you feel the same about Red:
I guess trying hard and going down fighting to a vastly superior team is preferable to some of the alternatives we saw over the past few years. That assertion was featured in some pushback on Twitter after I said "it's over" for Red, as if Michigan—Michigan!—was some try-hard program that's just happy to be here. I guess some people are just happy to be here, these days.
However, after the basketball team lost last week you vilified anyone that even remotely suggested Michigan should consider a head coaching change. In my opinion, the block quote above that you wrote about the hockey team is EXACTLY applicable to Belein and the basketball program also. Based on your past posts I can accept that we will agree to disagree on this topic, but I’d be very interested in hearing why you think the programs should follow such polar opposite paths when it could be argued that they are in the exact same place.
Thanks,
Scott
Michigan basketball is not Michigan hockey. Hockey recruits at an elite level. There are three, maybe four, programs that are able to match Michigan's ability to bring in first-round draft picks on the regular: North Dakota, Minnesota, Boston College and maybe BU or Wisconsin if they're in one of their fertile periods. Basketball does not do that for a lot of reasons. Some of that is on Beilein. Most of it is the fact that Michigan hasn't been a power for a long time and doesn't want to do the kind of things you have to do to be a consistent presence for one-and-done types.
Meanwhile the hockey program did not lose the services of its best player over the last two years. The basketball program did not have a four-year tourney drought despite being one of the most talented teams in the country.
It is reasonable to have different expectations for the two programs, and it's clearly hockey that's fallen short more than basketball over the past five years. Add in the fact that hockey has an obvious slam-dunk candidate waiting in the wings while basketball does not and there you go.
I haven't vilified anybody, by the way, unless you think eyerolling counts.
Big classes followed by small ones a problem?
Do you think the unbalanced recruiting classes will hurt Michigan down the road? It seems like they are rotating two large classes with two small classes and it may lead to some inexperienced teams.
Probably not. It is a thing that happens frequently at Wisconsin and Michigan State and they do just fine with it because they're good at developing their players.
And I'm guessing that life under Harbaugh is a bit strenuous for people without much chance at playing time. Brady Hoke was really good at retaining guys… probably too good. Harbaugh may be slightly aggressive for some, but he's done an excellent job of shaping the roster to his tastes while still getting the folks who depart a Michigan degree. I expect that to continue, so if a recruiting class does end up small it's because Michigan's roster is stocked with very good players.
Secondly, fill in the blank: If Michigan's defensive line reaches its potential, it will be Michigan's best defensive line since ____.
Mike
…I can remember.
Further hockey moves.
Brian,
With Notre Dame's move to Big Ten hockey happening, what do you see happening in college hockey realignment? I see two big questions out there:
- Where do the dominoes fall with realignment? Quinnipiac to Hockey East? RIT to the ECAC? Maybe even an ACHA club to Atlantic Hockey? (Rhode Island?) Will old WCHA teams get insecure again and blow everything to bits in response?
- What's the Big Ten's plan here? Is Arizona State in? Foresee anyone in the Big Ten making a Division 1 program like an Iowa or an Illinois? North Dakota???
Looking forward to your rampant speculation,
Brandon
1. Hockey East will probably add a team. Quinnipiac is the obvious choice but may prefer to stay in the ECAC, where they've had an excellent run. They've got no problem getting their RPI high enough to get an at large bid. HE may look at Bentley, which has rink issues but is in Boston, or try to entice Rhode Island to start a program.
I don't think you'll see any other drastic moves. If the Big Ten poaches an NCHC program they'll either respond with Arizona State—which makes much more sense in a conference with the two Colorado teams—or a WCHA team, and then the WCHA responds with Arizona State.
2. If Quinnipiac goes to HE, RIT is the obvious move for the ECAC.
3. As mentioned in the earlier post, in my opinion North Dakota is the obvious first choice for the Big Ten to go to eight. Realignment aficionado Frank The Tank rather condescendingly calls this a "thinking like a fan" and urges speculators to think like a university president. This leads him down a ludicrous path: he suggests going after—wait for it—either BC or BU. Or maybe UConn.
I'll let your laughter subside.
Now that odd duck Notre Dame has departed, no Hockey East program will leave for the Big Ten. The money on offer will not be enough to offset a vast increase in travel expenses and time. Hockey East is terrific competitively and logistically. It is once again a league where a bus gets you where you want to go in a few hours tops. Anything short of full admission to the Big Ten will not be compelling, especially after all those schools see what's happened to Minnesota attendance in the aftermath of their fan revolt.
I still believe the candidates mentioned in the previous post and—sigh—Arizona State are the only possibilities. Academics will not play a factor. There are no available AAU schools and this is an affiliate membership that does not come with the various institutional tie-ins a full membership has. (Even Johns Hopkins is waiting on those.) Competitive factors and attendance should matter—almost all of college hockey revenue comes at the gate. North Dakota checks both those boxes with authority. And if you're talking about media markets you have to think which markets a hockey program can actually deliver you. There's only one that adds a state to the footprint, and that's North Dakota. Another 170k households equates to a couple million dollars a year that nobody else brings.
4. I did forget one possibility: the Big Ten stands pat at 7 and waits for things to develop a bit more. There is at least one school that will not need a huge up front investment to start hockey: Nebraska. Nebraska has a 5,000 seat arena literally across the street from campus.
It is the current home of the USHL's Lincoln Stars and is just the right size for college hockey. If they really hit it off, their new basketball arena also does ice. With the state enraptured by anything red and the basketball program usually an afterthought, they could be revenue neutral right away. Title IX is the main hangup. (Title IX is never more frustrating than when it prevents a break-even hockey program from starting up without a lead weight around its leg.)
Nebraska has the three Colorado schools and UNO relatively nearby, as well. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the Huskers fired up a program in the near future.
Last year we had all new Defensive coaches besides Mattison and the defense got better
and almost anyone would say we've upgraded at the DC position for this year
True, but when you're at/near the top, there's basically nowhere to go but down. It seems like Michigan's defense was built well for what they ran last year, and now Brown is going to tweak things. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but I can see why someone would have a legitimate concern that it might fall off a bit.
http://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sharpies-five-more-plays-brown
http://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sharpies-three-plays-brown
both of these are from drives against Clemson
You only have to read year-old Mgoblog Durkin-takes to see why the major about-face on him is absurd. The overall resume is outstanding and the man did an EXCELLENT job improving Michigan's defense to an elite level. Not only that, but he expertly worked the personnel to play to their strengths -- who saw Ojemudia as a stand-up LB, twisting and stunting his way to the backfield a year ago? Who got Glasgow and Henry playing at all-american levels? Who had the guts to put our biggest dude (Wormley) out at DE? Durkin had a lot of talent to work with, but it wasn't exactly consistent across the board -- he made all the parts fit expertly.
I get it - the OSU game was a major blackmark. The strategy was a head-scratcher. But one must remember that Michigan lost 4 starting-caliber DLmen (Mone, Glasgow, Godin, Ojemudia). Imagine what your expectations for the offense would have been if Michigan lost even 2 starting OLmen.
Durkin was in a tough spot. We also know he was talking to Maryland already while this was all going on. He could have handled OSU better, but when you're down to 4 healthy DLmen against OSU you will struggle no matter what We were shoe-horning LBs into the BUCK spot and playing guys like Strobel. C'mon.
I know it's comforting to boil everything down to something simple and blame that one thing but there was more to it than Durkin's late-season strategic misfire. He went with what got him there, it was 14-10 at the half and Michigan basically didn't score again. 13 points isn't going to cut it against OSU no matter who your DC is.
I think Brown is going to be pretty dang great but no one has any clue if he'll be better than Durkin, who was also pretty dang great. We should appreciate his major contributions to making Harbaugh's first year a raging success rather than this petty "A++++++++++++ upgrade" silliness. He left, with Harbaugh's blessing and encouragment. I'm going to wish Durkin well at Maryland, especially when he plays MSU and PSU. I hope he learned a lot from Harbaugh because that job is going to be toooooooooough.
Durkin is far younger, so yeah his track record isn't quite as full as a DC as Browns but he has a pretty glowing resume too.
Mattison was viewed as an upgrade, then when he got replaced by Durkin THAT was an upgrade, and now Brown is another upgrade. Mattison had a more full resume (like Brown) and we talked up the benefits of his NFL experience. Then Durkin was talked up as a young aggressive ambitious bonafide up-and-comer who also had a track record. Now we get a guy with zero NFL experience, little demonstrated ambition, but a stellar track record and so that's the answer.
Every guy is an upgrade...until they aren't.
In my opinion all 3 of our recent DCs get an A-grade. You can pick apart their various strengths weakness, XandOs, recruiting acumen, age, adaptability, etc. They're all excellent college DC hires. The results will depend on them, their personel, and good old fashioned luck.
I'd say Durkin was an upgrade over Mattison. And I think Brown is an upgrade over Durkin. He's widely regarded as one of, if not the best defensive coordinators in the country. Plus this is likely his last stop, so the continuity we will have on that side of the ball for the next several years is a plus. He may not be as good a recruiter as Durkin but he seems to be the better defensive coach.
But the bar has been elevated pretty high. At this point, with the talent coming back, you have to expect a top 5 defense. That's not easy to acheive and doesn't leave much room for patience for Brown if he doesn't deliver.
The hate for Durkin is completly logical. He spent the week of the Ohio State game interviewing for the head coaching job at Maryland instead of game planning for the buckeyes.
It's only logical if you know for a fact that he did those things. I'm guessing you don't.
Every second not game planning for OSU that week is a sin.
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April 16th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
and nice second half adjustments.
That has nothing to do with what I said.
We also didn't run the ball well. I guess Tim Drevno - the run game coordinator - also spent the whole week preparing for interviews, right? Because the only time you ever do poorly is when you spend the whole week interviewing for other jobs. That's the only possible reason...
Spin it which ever way you like, he laid an egg and as a result we get to hear the likes of Finebaum and Ezekiel Elliot saying "it was like a home game".
Except Drevno didn't take another job like a week after that game
It's a blind-ass guess that the job situation had any influence. People sucked while looking for a new job and people sucked while not. Ohio State had something to do with that.
We gave up 41 points that game. I think the argument that he made a strategic error against spread teams is more compelling than he quit givingAF. Both could be contributing factors, but we have no clue if Durkin would have behaved differently if he had the Maryland job or didn't. He went with the strategy that got him a top 5 defense all year long. We also don't know that a different strategy with the same injury-ravaged personnel would have been more effective or if Barrett would have just bombed our CBs into oblivian. Burbridge produced a lot of yards on Lewis and OSU has a much deeper WR pool.
It's all second-guessing of a guy who did an excellent job on the season.
is a small part of the almost-year he worked for Michigan
Doc Brown has had top 5 defenses at Boston College, a school with nary a 4* player in sight. He represents a significant upgrade from Durkin and may be the best DC in the country. We don't know because we've never seen what he can do with a roster full of elite players.
Durkin shit the bed against OSU in spectacular fashion and he spent time interviewing for another job during the most important week of the year. I hope he chokes on all those crab cakes and ends up as DC at Akron. Harbaugh should have let Mattison coach the OSU game like Bo did with Fisher.
Yes, the offense needs to score more, but there is no reason OSU should be putting up 42 against us in our own house.
Those who stay will be dampenin
You also considered Durkin a huge improvement to Mattison one year ago. And Mattison a huge improvement before that.
OSU put up 44 on ND and 42 on VaTech - that doesn't mean Bud Foster and Brian VanGorder are garbage DCs.
Who DIDN'T think Mattison was a huge improvement over GERG?? What's your point?
over Schafer, and Schafer was an improvement over English, and on and on and on.
The new guy is always better than the last guy until he isn't.
Yes, the offense needs to score more, but there is no reason OSU should be putting up 42 against us in our own house.
Again, in the last 2 years since Urban got them up to speed, OSU scored 42 against EVERYBODY they played when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot (i.e. keeping Cardale on for way too long or brainfarting against Sparty). They scored 42 against us in 2014 and 2013 with probably less talented teams than this year's. They bombed Notre Dame for 44 the game after they played us. It's not wrong to say our gameplan could've been better but as much as it pains me to admit, those 42 demoralizing points came against a historically elite rush offense.
OSU scored 42 against EVERYBODY they played when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot (i.e. keeping Cardale on for way too long or brainfarting against Sparty).
This is too easy of an explanation. OSU scored less than that total in eight games last year. They brought their A game against us, sure, but our game plan was definitely flawed.
April 17th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
I know you weren't the first to throw out 42 points, but it's fairly arbitrary. Sure they scored fewer then 42 eight times. They also scored MORE than 37 eight times. The point is they had an elite offense.
Agree with you that Durkin did overall a great job with the D last year and I think should be remembered fondly. He was actually an upgrade in my opinion from Mattison, which I think was hard to accomplish.
That said, I think the Brown hire is huge and will be surprised if the D doesn't take another big step forward this year. I think the nation's top defense is not at all an unreasonable expectation based on personnel and coaching.
Given the relatively little they lost in personnel, how much veteran talent returns, Rashan Gary, and (Hopefully) avoiding a tidal wave of DL injuries, Brown has better raw ingredients than Durkin had. A top 5 defense is well within the realm of possibility and with good health #1 is in play.
I am happy with Brown, I don't at all consider him a downgrade, but this anti-Durkin stuff is so dang petty.
I think we should be grateful, want him to grow the Bo-Harbaugh coaching tree, especially if he can pick off OSU or MSU a few times.
if he were still here they would back off for a very compelling reason. As recognized as he is, D.J. is still learning. All "too be" great coaches go through this and it takes a number of years to get it all together. Then comes the rrealization that you can basically answer, without thought all that is thrown at you. The great ones keep going past this level.
Brian says that Don Brown will have a better game plan because he had years with good run defense. So too did Durkin.
Durkin served under Muschamp before coming to Michigan, so it's hard to say how much of his personal stamp was on those defenses. 2015 Michigan may have been the first time he had a truly free hand at running the D.
The two big things for me are that 1) Brown has a much longer track record than Durkin and 2) he produced a top-five defense with mediocre talent. Those two have me more optimistic with him at the helm.
Over/under 1 snap for Shane Morris at wide receiver this year?
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Over. I'm sure there is going to be some trick play that involves him. Even if there isn't, lining him up on the field will draw extra attention from the defense just for that reason.
Brian is entirely right here and it's kind of amazing to me the question is even getting asked. The only way Morris is playing WR is if it's to set up a trick play or send him a message about what he should expect his role to be in 2017.
It's amazing to me that it's amazing to you that people are asking questions about whether a guy who played receiver in at least two spring practices will play receiver during the season.
A lot of people playing in Spring will never see the field in games. Shallman led the team in rushing last year during Spring. Walk-on QBs have played prominent roles some years. The Spring Game is a fancy practice.
...and people asked whether Shallman would contribute at running back. I think you might even be included in that group.
The context for that argument was why you want to move Shallman to FB and not someone else.
It'd be like if we were arguing who was more likely to play WR: speight or Morris. In that case - Morris.
the detroit kids who played on that 7 on 7 team that won the IMG tourney said he could have played any position.
Over if the 1st throwback works as well as it did in the Spring Game... stuck on 1 if it doesn't
Michigan's defense was obviously shredded by OSU and that one black eye is the only thing that truly gives me pause for maximum optimism heading into next year, but I can't help but think how our perception of that game might have changed if Rudock hadn't gotten knocked out in the 3rd quarter. If we could have sustained some longer drives and maybe scored a TD or two, let's say we lose something closer to 35-23, that would have really changed the way we look at that game.
The other thing is that - yes, the D's scheme and execution against OSU last year sucked and so did that game and I may or may not have broken more than one dish in my house - but... for some perspective, as much as it pains me to recount, this was the same OSU team that a) dropped 42+ points on Alabama, MSU and all the good teams on its schedule and won the national championship in 2014, b) returned all its guys from that team this year and c) finally decided to stop farting around on offense, so it's not like we mailed it in against MAC-level munchkins. I don't doubt that whoever OSU throws out next year will also be good but they won't be Bosa/Elliott good otherwise they would've been playing last year, so that also gives us some room for hope.
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