Mailbag: Peppers As LB, Bowl Injuries, Next Year, Let's Dwell On It Comment Count

Brian

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[Bryan Fuller]

Let's add another position to Peppers's bio?

Is it absurd to think Jabrill could fill in at LB next year?  He's listed about 30 pounds lighter than Bolden, yes, but he's faster, tackles better, and recognizes plays faster.  Is the idea just a total non-starter because of the snaps he's expected to take on offense?

Just curious as to your thoughts.

-Mike

In a sense he already is filling in at linebacker. Michigan ran more nickel snaps last year than they ever had before largely because Peppers gave them that luxury. Part of his triple threat is defending the run. So: kind of.

But if you're asking about moving Peppers into the box as one of two inside linebackers, that is indeed absurd. Peppers is good at all things that physics allows him to be good at. This does not include getting off blocks from 300 pound offensive linemen. Then add the increased wear and tear because of those blocks—when he ends up in coverage he does not get hit unless MSU is running their Obvious Offensive Pass Interference play—and you're wearing Peppers down in a role he's a dubious fit for.

If Peppers has X snaps in him I'm sure we can agree that whatever is left over after his duties as a nickelback are complete should be dedicated to getting the ball in his hands.

Yes they have, no he's not.

Has anyone asked Harbaugh if Glasgow will return for the bowl game? Any other injured players that we'll get back?

Go Blue,

Mike Hamberg

Harbaugh all but ruled Glasgow out of the bowl game. He said Rudock had not thrown since the OSU game but should be no problem to return, and there isn't really anyone else that's hurt. Ojemudia, I guess, but we already know he's laid up for the season.

There was chatter that Bryan Mone might return. Harabaugh reinforced that with some comments in pre-OSU press conferences, but I've heard that was never anywhere near coming to fruition. And at this point is the redshirt worth burning for a slightly increased chance of beating Florida? No. It was dubious for OSU and not even plausible for a non-BCS bowl game. Brian Cole is also on track for a medical redshirt and playing safety in any case, where Michigan isn't pressed for depth.

Actually, the opposite effect.

Brian,

With Bronco Mendenhall taking the Head coaching job at Virginia, does this mean Taysom Hill is a lock to come to Michigan next year?

Vr,
Mike

I'd say that departure makes him less likely to end up at Michigan. Hill was transferring, that is a given. It might have been Michigan; it might not. But he was going somewhere (or retiring).

Now UVA might look like an enticing landing spot. Virginia has Matt Johns returning for his senior year, Johns threw 17 interceptions and rushed for 86 yards in 2014 and is far from a lock. Hill knows Harbaugh relatively well, but he really knows Mendenhall.

Where Hill ends up probably won't be known until after spring practice, when scholarships open up and coaches have a grip on what they've got at the QB spot. Michigan wasn't actually that interested in Jake Rudock until about halfway through spring, when their thinking suddenly changed. If Hill ends up at Michigan it is something of a referendum on John O'Korn. If Michigan passes it's also a referendum, a much better one for our purposes.

krang[1]

I always answer emails that accidentally call me "brain"

Brain,

I think we can all agree that Durkin was in a tough spot heading into the OSU game.  It's not too hard to imagine a world in which Michigan had Glasgow, Mone, and even a functioning Ondre Pipkins at NT on Saturday.  Instead, Durkin had Hurst, Charlton, Wormley, Henry, Strobel, Pallante, and maybe an injured Godin to fill out the entire line. 

An mgoposter made the compelling argument that playing Hurst, Charlton, Wormley, and Henry for nearly all of the game - with a few reps possibly going to Strobel, Pallante, and the injured Godin - was untenable.  The main four were inevitably going to be worn down, the argument goes, or Strobel, Pallante, and Godin were going play significant snaps but be a very poor match for OSU's line.  The 3-3-5 put the LBs into positions they weren't accustomed to, but you can at least argue that was better than having linemen who were too tired to be effective.

In light of the fact that the 3-3-5 made some sense (or maybe you disagree), can we say that the failure to use run blitzes and the failure to incorporate the safeties more into stopping the run were the staff's biggest failings against OSU?  Relying on Ross, Morgan, and Bolden to do things they aren't comfortable with rather than relying on exhausted or third-string linemen is one thing, but failing to load the box (with whatever combination of players) is another.  The latter seems far more questionable given that OSU was a far better running team this season than they were a passing team.

Thanks,

Erik (Erik_in_Dayton)

While I agree that Michigan was in a tough spot with depth no matter what they did, my complaint about the 3-3-5 is only about 30% "it didn't work" and 70% "it was a very bad attempt to respond."

If you notice something about the PSU, MSU, and OSU defenses it's that they're all basically the same: pattern-matching cover 4, mostly, with two high safeties. PSU plays them actually high; MSU plays them at eight yards. This allows you to apply a relevant defender to the playside. Michigan kept playing a very deep high safety through the entire game.

To some extent that's fine in the first half. You got a couple stops, you're going up against an OSU offense that has been clunky much of the year, you are caught off guard by some new (old) things that they are doing. I'm not ticked off about the early pooch punt because I thought the same thing everyone else did: that Michigan and OSU were about to get locked into a defensive struggle.

Once OSU crunches you in the face on the touchdown drive that made it 14-3 late you need to have something in your back pocket to transition to once it becomes obvious that your base package cannot hold up. Durkin simply did not. If the 3-3-5 was his response it was a total failure. It was so bad they couldn't run it.

There is a reason quarters is a very popular defense around the country right now, and it is Ohio State's offense. Leaving one high against it is asking for trouble, and trouble was received. If you want to save DL snaps you can do that by getting super-aggressive.

I'm okay losing this game because Barrett hits a bunch of passes like he did against Clark and Lewis. That's something I'm willing to let OSU try in lieu of grinding Michigan for 350 rushing yards. To watch Durkin sit on the sideline with his 20-yard-deep safety as Michigan got ground up for the second time in three games was a major confidence shaker. That he left is… fine by me.

This kind of thing is why I don't want an NFL DC coming in here, by the way. I want a guy who came up from the bottom and has had to fight spread offenses for decades. Tossing some dude out there who hasn't had to scheme against a QB run since 1985 gives me the heebie-jeebies.

What about next year?

Hey Brian,

My dad and I traditionally watch every game together with my brother and uncle joining us some/most of the time.  The defensive game plan on Saturday bugs me more and more with each passing day.  Going back to Harbaugh's battles with Oregon at Stanford, is there anything there that might indicate how The Game will go in the future?  My dad has insisted on a talent gap, but I'm certain that the combination of injuries and trying to implement a terrible/unfamiliar scheme had to do with UM's down fall on Saturday.  With Durkin out the door, do you see Michigan's seemingly increased depth at line next year giving them an advantage?  And how long do we have to wait before we can run the ball the way Harbaugh wants?

Thanks ahead of time, love the blog and the work you guys put into it,

Jason from GR

Harbaugh never did get a grip on Oregon's offense while he was at Stanford. In his four years, the Ducks put up 55, 35, 42, and 52. Harbaugh did win the third game of that series, but it wasn't good. It really couldn't have been good until year four, when the Stanford defense caught up to the Luck offense. But even then that Vic Fangio-led D got bombed by the Ducks.

Many teams got bombed by the Ducks that year, except for one: Auburn. Because Auburn lives and dies by the same stuff Oregon does and they cancelled each other out. I say this all the time, but the corollary to the "the spread makes your defense soft" stuff often promulgated by people who can't divide very well is "the spread makes your defense resilient to the spread."

This is obviously not a hard and fast rule, or even a rule at all—see every Big 12 game since 2002. But I do wonder about how prepared Michigan was to face running QBs this year.

Anyway: there is an obvious talent gap that OSU did its best to hide for the duration of the year during their post-Herman malaise. Check the first round of the upcoming NFL draft for ample evidence thereof.

Michigan should be a lot closer to parity next year, as OSU loses big chunks of their team and Michigan brings just about everyone back. I'm not sure the run game will explode, but four returning starters in the same system should equate to progress, especially if they get improved production from the running back spot. Michigan should feel like an elite team if they get good QB play. And given Harbaugh's track record…

Comments

Elwood

December 7th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^

Does OSU's offense make McNeil the top coordinator pick? He coached under Mike Leach, which isn't OSU at all but Leach's coaching tree is impressive.

Maizen

December 7th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^

I don't see why Michigan wouldn't be interested in Taysom Hill. If you're Hill would you rather play for Harbaugh or Mendenhall? That's not even close.

Secondly, what if O'Korn goes down? That "elite" team you talk about gets average real quick if Speight or Gentry have to take over. Look no further than Baylor to see what losing a QB (in their case 3) can do to your season. Heck look at the dropoff that happened on our DL when a few starters went down.

The position is far too important to only have 1 guy. You fill the roster with the most talented guys possible then let the chips fall where they may.

If Hill wants to come you take him no questions asked.

Ali G Bomaye

December 7th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^

If Hill leaves BYU (as it seems he will), it will be because he wants to be the starter. He's not going to come to Michigan to be an insurance policy behind O'Korn. If he comes to Michigan, it'll be because Harbaugh has been watching O'Korn for a year and thinks Hill can probably start over him.

M-Dog

December 7th, 2015 at 11:12 PM ^

That may be the appeal to Hill to come to Michigan.  Harbaugh does not use a "running QB offense", although he will run the QB periodically.

Whether Hill can be effective with just the threat of him running, as opposed to him actually being part of the running game is something that Harbauigh would have to assess.

 

reshp1

December 7th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^

As much as we hold Harbaugh in high esteem, that's a pretty maize colored take on it. From Hill's perspective, it's between following the guy whis coached you the last 4 years to a place where your path to playing time seems open, or taking a flyer on a guy you know a little from 5 years ago during recruiting and being in a 50/50 fight for the job.

Stringer Bell

December 7th, 2015 at 6:19 PM ^

At this point, the run game is what it is.  The OL might make some progress in run blocking, but they're mostly 4th and 5th year guys and are what they are at this point.  Same with guys like Smith.  He's not suddenly going to develop great vision.  That's why a guy like Walker could come in right away and get a significant portion of the carries.  We also don't really know what we have with Higdon.

riverrat

December 7th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^

Agreed. After watching McCaffrey run, the advantage of a quick guy who can see angles helps me understand why the coaches risked Peppers at tailback. 

Still not sure why Thomas Rawls couldn't get any run...and I'm now feeling a bit sorry that I made fun of Fred Jackson's comparisons for him...

funkywolve

December 8th, 2015 at 1:12 AM ^

some improvement towards the end of this year.  Granted two of the better defenses they faced were in the last two games of the season, but it didn't look like the running game was improving, at least to me.

All 5 starters had seen a good amount of playing time before this year and you had an oline coach with a pretty good reputation coming in.  You figure there might be some growing pains early in the year with a new system but I was hoping the pains would have disappeared by the end of the year.  At this point, I think you can expect some improvement just from the fact that they'll be in their second year in the system and the amount of experience returning is huge - the amount of returning starts by Mags, Kalis, Cole and Braden has got be close to an average of 20/man, but I'm not expecting a quantum leap.

M-Dog

December 7th, 2015 at 11:21 PM ^

He could do it of course.  It's a question of where he is more replaceable.

I used to think that there were other guys on offense who could do B+ work to his A work, but on defense it would be C+ work to his A work.

Now I'm starting to flip on that.  It's clear that there is nobody in his league at RB, and we can't keep going into big games without being able to run the ball.  Conversely, we may actually able to hold down the fort on defense without him there full time.

Plus, if he can run, it helps keep the defense off the field.  Regardless, we need a running game.

ryholly

December 7th, 2015 at 6:12 PM ^

It's really frustrating to pin the defensive performance at the end of the season on injuries.  Every team has injuries.  If you're licking your chops at our defense next year, what happens if Lewis goes down?  Or glasgow tears an ACL in spring?

MSU lost their best LB, best safety, its QB for the biggest game, and 3/5 of it's O-line at one point and still found ways to win.  We need to get to the point where it's next man up and injuries aren't an excuse to lose by 28 points to OSU.

CompleteLunacy

December 8th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^

And that's an incredibly rare exception, NOT something you should count on. How did Baylor do with its 3rd string QB? They just lost to a terrible Texas. OU lost Baker Mayfield for a half against TCU and they almost lost that game. TCU lost Boykin and they weren't the same either.

When you're down to 3rd options, you will generally struggle. Doesn't excuse how poorly the defense did against OSU, but it's definitely significant.

WFNY_DP

December 8th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^

None of these examples you've cited were teams that had just gone through a coaching change after having been mis-managed from a coaching standpoint the previous four years. 

My gut is that if OSU had lost Braxton Miller in Urban's first year, they aren't going 12-0.

 

The very reason those top-tier teams are able to weather the injuries is because they've had solid programs built over 5-10 years, and had the depth to overcome those injuries. What this year told me is that Michigan had some good players being badly coached by the previous staff, but it also had a roster devoid of meaningful depth at almost EVERY positiion on the field save maybe DB or DL.

stephenrjking

December 7th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^

Ok, the success Auburn had against Oregon wasn't just the result of a defense that was familiar with a spread. It was the result of a team beating Oregon's OL up front with monsters like Nick Fairley. Dominant DLs have been Oregon's kryptonite since the dawn of the Chip Kelly era. Now, dominant DLs tend to be effective against everybody, but their ability to disrupt Oregon is disproportionately large because Oregon relies on mobility in its OL and can get shoved around, and because the zone run (and the ensuing tempo plays) is an inextricably fundamental part of their offense that they cannot replace if it isn't working properly. This has been proven time and again. Against monster DLs Oregon cannot run, cannot properly tempo, and never quite has the downfield passing game chops to compensate. And the defense eventually wears down. Auburn, LSU, OSU last season, etc. The good news: Harbaugh is recruiting monster DLs. The bad news: One of the key differences between Oregon and various iterations of Urban Meyer is that Urban recruits and schemes for bigger, NFL-style offensive linemen. He runs power and counter a fair amount. And that makes the offense more sustainable against different defenses.

dragonchild

December 7th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^

I remember the Oregon-Auburn game for the NC.  Nick Fairley was constantly in Oregon's backfield.  They knew he was coming and it didn't matter.  There wasn't much to Auburn's scheme beyond "blow up the play".  By now it's common knowledge that Oregon is a "finesse" offense; you either beat them physically or you lose.  For Oregon that's good enough against all but the best defenses, but unfortunately I think they'll always fall short of a title.  Still, most programs would love to have their success.  Anyway, if we had Glasgow, I think we fare much better against that Oregon team than OSU.

OSU, well. . . we got the offense that steamrolled the inaugural CFP; they can still put 40+ on anybody.  Right up to the MSU game they were mostly beating themselves; when they're on their game I honestly don't know how to stop them because literally no one has.  Between their 2OT victory over PSU last season and the VT rematch (after which the futzing started) they scored 55, 49, 31, 42, 42, 59, 42 and 42 points.  That included victories over Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon.  VT's second try with the scheme that beat OSU last season? 42 points.  Against Michigan?  42 points.  The only team that has consistently stopped OSU has been OSU.

Anyone with a solid plan to hold that offense (at its best, not futzing) under 6 TDs is either the best DC in the country, or full of shit.  Needless to say, the latter is the safe bet.

McFate

December 7th, 2015 at 8:30 PM ^

As of PSU's 8th possession of that game (roughly midway 3Q), they were averaging about 9 yards per possession.  PSU's offense was not acting like a threat to score without help.

But Barrett was providing that help.  He threw a pick-six early in the second half, and later another INT that set up PSU in plus territory.  Urbz turtled up in order to play it safe, and nearly lost the game for doing so.

buckeyejonross

December 7th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^

While you are correct that Urban turtled, it was because Barrett sprained his MCL late in the first half as OSU took a 17-0 lead into the break. After that, OSU went into shut down mode by not running Barrett again until OT, where they promptly scored two TDs. If there's one thing about OSU's offense, it's that it's easy to stop if the QB isn't running effectively. See all of Cardale's starts this season.

It was apparent OSU didn't want to risk further injury to Barrett, and was content with its 17 points. That was enough, and it would have been enough until PSU had a pick six, and drove for the game tying FG at the buzzer.

ST3

December 7th, 2015 at 7:11 PM ^

By "monsters" do you mean really good or really big? My memory of the Auburn-Oregon game is Auburn's DL getting to the mesh point at the same time the QB was trying to make the read. He basically didn't have time to read the end or whoever he was trying to read because Fairly was in his face so quickly. I want monsters who can attack the gaps and get to the QB. Hurst comes to mind, but he has to tackle when he gets there.

dragonchild

December 8th, 2015 at 7:22 AM ^

It's a truth that isn't saying much though.  A dominant D-line stops everything.  If you blow up the play before it starts, it hardly matters what the playcall is.  Unfortunately, OSU has NFL-caliber linemen so even a quality D-line plays them to a stalemate.

Schematically, OSU's offense is all but impossible to stop unless they turtle or futz.  That is reality.  VT caught them off guard; that worked exactly once.  Michigan State got a partial answer in '13 by putting together an elite quarters defense of violent linemen, grabby corners and elite safeties.  Once the safeties left, though, the only thing that stopped OSU was an overreaction to water falling from the sky.  Last season, the same OSU offense against a comparable MSU defense torched them for 49 points.

At this point, considering Michigan only gets their A-game, you've got to spot OSU 5 TDs; only way to beat them is to get lucky (hope they futz) or outscore them, and unfortunately the latter has gotten much tougher recently.

I mean, I hate to talk up these guys, but they're 49-4 (!!!) over the last four seasons for a reason.  Only two teams ('13 MSU, '14 VT) have stopped that (non-futzing) offense over the last three seasons and neither has been able to repeat that performance.  (Clemson "held" them to 5 TDs and outscored them -- barely.)  Harbaugh is certainly a caliber of coach to present a challenge, but as much as I hate Meyer I have to concede he's one of the best.

jmblue

December 8th, 2015 at 8:57 AM ^

I agree that they're tough schematically to stop, but it seems a little facile to write off all their off games as them shooting themselves in the foot.  

I would say this: when you play OSU, you're going to give up a lot of yardage, but if you can hold them to three on occasion, you can win.  They weren't all that productive in the redzone pre-Michigan.

 

snarling wolverine

December 7th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^

We should note that the program Jim built at Stanford HAS held Oregon in check. Stanford held Oregon to 14 points in 2012 and 20 points in 2013. I think Harbaugh's somewhat shaky defenses at Stanford were a function of not having great talent. It's harder to hide deficient talent on defense than it is on offense.

Gobluecheese

December 7th, 2015 at 8:26 PM ^

But does anyone know what happened to Lyons? I think he changed positions when he transferred (corner to safety, I think) which would take some time to work into, but I was surprised he didn't get more playing time. I would have thought that he would have made his decision on where to transfer based on playing time. It was his last season of eligibility, wasn't it? Maybe his main priority was actually his education?