Missing ex-recruit Levi Onwuzurike is more tolerable with UW off the schedule. [Scott Eklund/UW Athletics]

From The HTTV Cutting Room Floor: Washington Football Preview 2020 Comment Count

Ace July 24th, 2020 at 11:58 AM

If you haven't noticed it on the sidebar, Hail To The Victors 2020 is available for presale in the MGoStore. We're in the final editing stages as we do all we can to get the physical copy of the magazine to you by mid-August; we feel pretty good it'll reach you before any sort of season starts.

Speaking of which, if you ordered through the Kickstarter, there are still a few people who need to get their addresses to Seth if they want the magazine they ordered. If you're worried you might be one of those people, check this thread.

As we went through the process of putting together this year's magazine, not everything we wrote made the cut. I wrote the Washington preview before both the Big Ten and Pac-12 announced they'd play conference-only schedules. (At left: my face when I learned this, via this amazing tweet.)

So, this didn't make the magazine. (Ball State and Arkansas State were never written, thankfully.) In its stead is an overview of the Big Ten teams that weren't on the original schedule. Still, we wanted you to get a taste for what's in the magazine, plus we know there are completists out there. Also, UW made a coordinator hire that should bring you great mirth. Enjoy, and if you haven't already, preorder. I promise we've packed this year's HTTV with quality reading material regardless of season status.

Washington entered the 2019 season holding three consecutive Pac-12 North titles and two of the last three conference championships. The preseason Pac-12 media poll had them in a virtual deadlock with rival Oregon atop the division. Sure, the Huskies had eight players selected in the preceding NFL Draft, including four in the top two rounds; they’d lost similar levels of NFL talent in the prior two offseasons without missing the ten-win beat under the steady hand of head coach Chris Petersen. They debuted at #13 in the preseason AP poll.

Not much went right for Washington after that. In their second game, they lost 20-19 at home to a middling Cal squad, and that set a trend—the Huskies went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. In a 7-5 (4-5 Pac-12) regular season, their worst loss came by a mere ten points at Stanford, while their six FBS wins were by an average of 21 points. It was a disappointing season without much in the way of quality wins, however the dip looked more like the product of bad luck with a young team than the program itself tailing off.

On December 2nd, Petersen shocked the college football world, announcing he’d step down after the season and assume a non-coaching role in the athletic department, citing stress. On the same day, Washington tabbed defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake as Petersen’s successor, a sensible move at the time that’s only looked better now that a pandemic has prioritized continuity. The Huskies sent Petersen out on a high note, thumping his former team, Boise State, 38-7 in the Las Vegas Bowl.

In only six seasons, Petersen amassed more wins than any Washington coach since the legendary Don James retired after a loss to Michigan in the 1993 Rose Bowl. Lake, who’s served as an assistant under Petersen since the last two years of his Boise State tenure, has never been a head coach. While Lake has been successful as a coordinator, defensive backs coach, and recruiter, the transition to running a program isn’t an easy one.

That transition is made tougher when the program loses seven offensive starters, including its NFL-caliber quarterback, leading rusher, top two receivers, and three linemen. Lake may also learn the hard way that one of the most important factors for success as a head coach is choosing the right staff. 

Remember these PSU offenses? UW hired the architect. [Eric Upchurch]

While all but three assistants were with the program last year, one of the new faces is offensive coordinator John Donovan, who replaces the oft-criticized Bush Hamdan, now the QB/WR coach at Mizzou after Lake decided he wouldn’t be retained. The good news, in a certain light, is that Donovan is no stranger to criticism, either. 

You may recognize Donovan’s name from his time as Penn State’s offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015, when the Nittany Lions fielded the #110 and #71 offenses by SP+, respectively, despite being loaded with NFL talent like Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin, and Mike Gesicki. James Franklin fired Donovan, who’d followed him over from Vanderbilt, after a 2015 season in which former PSU players were criticizing the playcalling on Twitter as early as September. 

Joe Moorhead improved the offense to #23 nationally, ranking third in passing and first in explosiveness by SP+, in his first season at PSU, then parlayed that success to get the head job at Mississippi State. Donovan, meanwhile, spent the last four seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars as a quality control coach, “offensive assistant,” and assistant running backs coach. Jacksonville’s offense finished 20th or worse in yardage in three of those four seasons while not exactly setting a standard for innovation.

[Hit THE JUMP for a look at UW's personnel.]

Sirmon is vying to be the second straight Jacob to start at QB for UW. [UW Athletics]

Donovan’s first big task is picking a replacement for quarterback Jacob Eason, whom the Colts selected in the fourth round when he entered the draft after a strong junior campaign. Redshirt sophomore Jacob Sirmon, a 2018 top-100, is the returnee with the most career pass attempts for Washington at three. He had been the favorite until, shortly before press time, the Huskies added Sacramento State grad transfer Kevin Thomson, a dual-threat QB who accounted for 39 touchdowns on his way to finishing third in the 2019 voting for the Walter Payton Trophy, awarded to the best offensive player in the FCS. While not the most aggressive downfield passer (7.1 yards per attempt in his lone season as a starter), Thomson could be the steady senior presence this offense needs.

The winner of the job will be throwing to a group of mostly unproven pass-catchers. Gone is arguably the team’s most dangerous weapon, tight end Hunter Bryant, who went pro after leading the team in receiving yardage as a junior; UW also graduated two of the top three wide receivers, including receptions and touchdowns leader Aaron Fuller. There’s promising young talent, particularly sophomore Puka Nacua, who was in a nascent midseason breakout when he broke his foot and missed the final five games. There’s little in the way of experience, so this passing game will be coming together on the fly.

Washington also needs a new running back to fill the shoes of thousand-yard rusher Salvon Ahmed. Bruising 210-pounder Richard Newton is the favorite to at least lead a backfield-by-committee after tallying ten touchdowns on only 117 carries as a freshman in 2019. Newton is what Lake wants in a back—there’s a lot of offseason talk about having a physically dominant offense—though he’ll need to improve on a middling 4.3 yards per carry and shake off a nagging foot injury. Senior Sean McGrew had a pair of 100-yard games last year but only had four carries over the back half of the season; at 5’7, 185, he’s a change of pace. It’s possible an unproven young back like redshirt freshman and former four-star Cameron Davis breaks through; this competition appears to be open.

All this revolves around another area of uncertainty: the offensive line, which loses three starters and their primary backup. The two starting guards are back, though UW’s running game underwhelmed. One of them, 6’7”/322-pound junior Jaxson Kirkland, has more than enough size to slide out to a tackle spot, and a few up-and-coming reserves that got playing time are primed for starting spots. Still, it’s hard to feel comfortable about a group that—if offseason chatter is correct—may start a true freshman, four-star Myles Murao, at center.

The Huskies may need to lean very hard on the defense and they could be up to the task. After 12 Washington defenders were selected over the prior three NFL Drafts, none went in 2020, and there’s pro-level talent on all three levels of the defense. With Lake as a coordinator or co-coordinator over the last four seasons, UW finished 4th, 13th, 4th, and 24th in defensive SP+, and that low point occurred when the defense replaced ten starters in 2019.

Slot corner Elijah Molden is a potential All-American. [UW Athletics]

Four of the five players to record at least five tackles for loss are back. That includes two productive rush linebackers, Joe Tryon and Ryan Bowman, and first-team All-Pac-12 end Levi Onwuzurike. The front seven will be a strength, particularly if they can work out some issues at inside linebacker. Sophomore walk-on Edefuan Ulofoshio came on strong in the back half of 2019 at one ILB spot to earn a scholarship and hold down a starting spot; the other one is wide open as multiple candidates return from injury.

Washington has been one of the best producers of NFL defensive backs in the time since Lake came on board as DBs coach in 2015, and there should be more on the way after this season. The secondary is led by senior slotback/hybrid/nightmare Elijah Molden, who earned first-team all-conference with 79 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, three forced fumbles, four interceptions, and 13 pass breakups. Fellow senior Keith Taylor has three years of starting experience at cornerback, while four sophomores who started games as freshman settle into their roles.

Junior placekicker Peyton Henry is as steady as they come; he hit 19-of-21 field goals and all 49 of his extra points in 2019. The empty punter role should be filled by Triston Brown, the top JuCo available at the position. McGrew is a solid kickoff returner, leaving only punt returns as an area of uncertainty on special teams.

Washington’s defense should bounce back to the great-to-elite range they’ve enjoyed under Lake’s watch when not returning a lone starter. The offense, on the other hand, would’ve had a lot of question marks even if Lake made a home-run coordinator hire. You may have gathered from the above that Donovan is not considered a knock out of the park. While the Huskies have a solid floor because of their defense, the offense may prevent them from doing much beyond matching last year’s mediocre final record.

KEY PLAYERS

So. RB Richard Newton. Newton found the end zone ten times on only 117 carries in his freshman campaign as the clear-cut #2 back behind Salvon Ahmed. After Ahmed left for the NFL, Newton became the presumed starter, and unless a freshman emerges he could take on a feature role in an offense that’ll need a reliable ground game while it breaks in a new quarterback.

Sr. DE Levi Onwuzurike. While Onwuzurike’s numbers don’t jump off the stat sheet, that’s often the case for 3-4 defensive ends, and the work he does up front has earned him recognition regardless. He led UW defensive linemen with 45 tackles (20 solo) and six TFLs on his way to first-team All-Pac-12 honors.

Sr. DB Elijah Molden. Whether ball-hawking downfield or coming up to lay a hit at the line of scrimmage, Molden is liable to make a game-changing play. He led the Huskies in tackles (79), forced fumbles (three), interceptions (four), and pass breakups (13), while also making 5.5 TFLs. If you can’t spot Molden, just follow the ball.

THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD NEWS

After replacing ten starters and still managing to field the nation’s #24 defense in 2019, Washington returns most of their top players on that side of the ball, which means they’ll likely finish closer to the #4 defensive ranking they held in both 2016 and 2018.

The offense, on the other hand, lost almost everyone of note. Program architect Chris Petersen stepped down. The new coach is the old defensive coordinator and the new offensive coordinator is the man who broke Christian Hackenberg before spending four years in the NFL wilderness. Good luck!

Comments

1VaBlue1

July 24th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^

I feel this was a winnable game against a team that will improve through the year, looking better at the end than it ever did at the start.  Was also looking forward to the pageantry of Washington and Michigan hitting national TV.

Stupid Covid...

buddha

July 24th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^

Since this game was announced, friends of mine and I had been planning a trip to Seattle to attend the contest and road trip all around the PNW. Selfishly, I'm very bummed about the cancellation because I've never seen a game at UW stadium before, and I've heard it's pretty epic.

Hopefully the figure out a way to reschedule the series in the future. 

Steve-a-wolverine-o

July 24th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^

It’s a real shame that Michigan isn’t going to make this long anticipated trip out to the west coast. As a resident of both California and Oregon the last 17 years (since I left Ann Arbor) the only appearances they have made out west have been three Rose Bowl losses. I went to all. The inter conference play with PAC-12 was cancelled as well as a home and away with UCLA. So this was finally going to be an accessible game for the west coast wolverines. But alas. It wasn’t meant to be. 
I hope there is some consideration on getting another west coast game back on the schedule in the next five to ten years. 

SeattleChris

July 24th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^

Steve - I've lived out here nice '99 and have been to the same three rosebowls (USC, Texas, USC) the Navarre UCLA game and the inexplicable loss at Autzen. Love the "rivalry" we have with UW across the early 90's RBs and the home/home we played in the early aughts, though it goes further back than that.. Would've been so much fun! Hope the series does end up rescheduled. 

SeattleChris

July 24th, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^

COVID was supposed to be over by now! I live 5 mins from Husky Stadium (and "Alaska Airlines Field") and had an amazing weekend planned for friends and family flying in from across the country. Not to mention finally settling the good natured shit talking going on with all my UW friends and neighbors on the field. I was really excited to see Gattis vs. Lake matchup since  we match up well defensively with their young athleticism and Don Brown always seems to do well against inexperienced QBs (OSU backups notwithstanding). Unfortunate that we are here now but, missing a football game is a miniscule loss given all we have lost this year in the US. 

RedRum

July 24th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

bronxblue

July 24th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^

It felt like a really good game on paper that would only help both teams regardless of who won.  I do think Michigan's defense would have been a handful for UW, and Michigan had fewer questions on offense even with the loss of Ruiz, Onwenu, and the rest of the linemen who graduated (to say nothing of Patterson and DPJ).

Ah well.

Michigan4Life

July 25th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^

Losing the entire OL sans Mayfield is a big deal especially at C where Ruiz pretty much set the line call so in addition to DMC/Milton inexperience at QB, protection would be an issue early on. Washington defense would give them a stiff test with their talent and how well they played under Lake in the past few years

rob f

July 24th, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^

Thanks for posting this, even though it is a reminder of a game that, about a year ago, I started preliminary planning to attend.

Now I'm just left hoping that the home-and-home with UW doesn't end up on the Michigan Athletic Department's cutting room floor and that I might be able to make that trip in the future. 

CRISPed in the DIAG

July 24th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^

I had a good feeling about this matchup until I read about UW's defense. Upon reflection, this feels like a classic west coast trip where we start slow - like, go down 17-0 on three or four weird plays - and make a semi-furious comeback that falls short.

Blake Forum

July 25th, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^

Not flying across the country to play, whether in the fall or the spring, is probably the best thing to do for player safety. But I would've liked to see Michigan's pass rush feast on this offense, I admit

Sam1863

July 26th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

My first thought was that the UW mascot doesn't look like he's upset. It looks like he's completely stoned.

Which might be a pretty good way to deal with the 2020 football season.