[Tarris Reed/Another Top-40 Big]

Hoops Recruiting Wants To Talk About Rankings Comment Count

Matt EM August 19th, 2021 at 1:29 PM

With travel ball now in the rear-view mirror and my evaluations complete, I've finalized my rankings for 2022 prospects. It's time to over-analyze the quantification of over 200 kids that I viewed this spring/summer, so let's get right to it. 

We'll start with the commits, move on to likely additions and finish with offers/targets. We'll go a bit deeper with the commits and likely additions for obvious reasons. 

 

Tarris Reed

EM Ranking: #38 Overall/#8 Center

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #69 Overall

Conventional Assessment Prior to Travel-Ball: Wide-bodied bruiser with budding skill as a shooter/face-up option that might not big enough or athletic enough to warrant a top-50ish profile. 

Travel-Ball Performance/Ranking Logic: 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and nearly a block per game on 70% from the field during eight games in Peach Jam. One of the biggest stockrisers of the summer for me based on ability to be a bully-ball scorer with his back-to-the-basket while really impressing as a face-up option on the perimeter. Reed projects as a versatile mismatch problem at the college level that has the strength/mass to overpower smaller bigs in the B10, while having just enough handle/agility to blow-by more traditional centers. The jumpshot mechanics look good and there is some promise there despite only 4 attempts from distance during EYBL play. Doesn't have the combination of size (closer to 6'9 that 7'0) or athleticism (not a quick-twitch athlete by any means) to rise much higher than top-40 going forward. 

 

Dug McDaniel

EM Ranking: #106 Overall/#22 PG

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #59 Overall

Conventional Assessment Prior to Travel-Ball: Small PG with outstanding playmaking ability/vision, good acceleration + straight line speed and a questionable jumper. 

Travel-Ball Performance/Ranking Logic: 12.1 points, 3.4 assists per game on 40% from the field overall and 31% from three (42 attempts) during eight games at Peach Jam. The spring/summer functionally confirmed the accepted assessment heading into travel-ball. McDaniel is a small guard at a legit 5'8 - 5'9, that is electric as a playmaker while being a bit below average as a shooter. My 106 ranking of Dug doesn't really speak to him having a sub-par spring/summer (he is what I thought he was), but more a result of relative unknowns at his position outplaying him. Guys like Collin Chandler, Rowan Brumbaugh, Riley Kugel, Koren Johnson and Zakai Zeigler were basically unheard of prior to April based on the pandemic, but that is no longer the case. A lot to like about McDaniel as pass-first playmaker for others that is a supplemental piece as a scorer, particularly on a team that projects to have great bigs + wings.

[After THE JUMP: a VERY likely addition and offers/targets]

Jett Howard

EM Ranking: #34 Overall/#10 SF

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #39 Overall

Conventional Assessment Prior to Travel-Ball: Just shooter type with good size that can attack closeouts in a straight line while being an average athlete. 

Travel-Ball Performance/Ranking Logic: 9.2 points, 2.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds on 46% FG and 25% from beyond the arch in six games at Peach Jam. The Peach Jam numbers simply don't do justice for the summer Jett had. I watched him on multiple occasions starting in April and came away thinking he was a better prospect than I witnessed with IMG. The noticeable difference? Unquestionably, it was the playmaking ability for others that popped. Contrary to the pre-summer assessment, Howard can do some things as a shot-creator for himself and others that raised his profile for me. While he doesn't project as a primary on-ball type at Michigan, he certainly looks capable as a secondary playmaker. The flip side is that Jett isn't the elite shooter that most have projected. I've watched him no less than 10 times since last October and never came away with the impression that he'll be a 38%-40% shooter from distance. That said, he is a kid that connects on difficult pull-ups, so the shotmaking ability is definitely formidable, if not elite. I get Franz vibes here in that both were projected as elite shooters during their pre-Michigan days, but the other elements of their game/versatility is what really makes them productive. Much like Reed, Jett's lack of quick-twitch athleticism means he's unlikely to rise much in the rankings absent being a 40% shooter beyond the arch. 

 

Ernest Udeh

EM Ranking: #79 Overall/#17 Center

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #56 Overall

Brief Explanation: Huge stockriser to mainstreams during the spring. Went from generic 3-star to top 20 on 247. While Udeh was undervalued to me, 5-star status was a bit too much. He's a very limited offensive player that is generally restricted to finishing as a roll-man and with putbacks on the offensive glass. Ernest is a good rim-protector, but isn't a game-changing defender in the mold of a Dereck Lively. He's only a legit 6'9 and won't have one-and-done type impact. Can't justify 5-star status here in my opinion. 

 

 

Yohan Traore

EM Ranking: #16 Overall/#3 PF

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #67 Overall

Brief Explanation: Biggest stockriser of the summer. Elite versatility with a nice face-up game off the bounce, punishes smaller defenders as a back-to-the-basket scorer and is a capable shooter that spaces the floor. Defensively, Yohan is a plus rim-protector that may prove to be switchable at the college level. Lacks the size (legit 6'9) and elite shooting ability to be a legit top-5 prospect/no-brainer NBA player, but this is about as good as it gets for a college prospect in this class. Will likely be a 5-star to every site by the end of August. Have heard rumors that he may reclass to 2021, but nothing I'm comfortable reporting as verified. 

 

Gregg Glenn

EM Ranking: #115 Overall/#18 PF

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #93 Overall

Brief Explanation: Didn't play more than a few weeks of travel-ball based on injury. I've viewed Gregg live twice since November and both times came away with the same evaluation. Good playmaker for others as a face-up forward, below-average shooter, a tad undersized for a PF and perhaps lacking the agility to defend the perimeter. He's still a high-major prospect, but I suspect he's a Plan B for most programs based on some of the same things I reference above. 

 

AJ Casey

EM Ranking: #88 Overall/#13 PF

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #33 Overall

Brief Explanation: Really no way around it, Casey had a disappointing summer relative to expectations. He was a kid on the cusp of 5-star status in March and proceeded to put up 7.5 points and 5.1 rebounds on 41.4% from the field and 6% from three in fourteen Peach Jam contests. Casey should've been much more productive given his combination of size/athleticism/skill. His motor wasn't where it needed to be at times. He has talent and is a high-major level prospect, but several schools have cooled on him and you can expect a big drop in his ranking from other services as well.

 

Ty Rodgers

EM Ranking: #80 Overall/#12 PF

Current 247 Composite Ranking: #57 Overall

Brief Explanation: 8.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists while shooting nearly 54% from the field in fourteen games at Peach Jam. Pre-summer evaluations were almost perfect here. Widely considered a good (not great) athlete that checks multiple positions with some playmaking chops and a college ready frame, he lived up to that billing. The downer? He's the definition of a non-shooter that only attempted 3 shots beyond the arch in those 14 games. Ty is a prospect that will likely be stuck in that 50-100 range absent a serious uptick in shooting prowess. 

 

 

 

Comments

mwolverine1

August 19th, 2021 at 3:56 PM ^

Am I right to assume Michigan wouldn't take Traore as a 2021?

Thanks as always for bringing your insight. I'm slightly higher on Dug, but I'm otherwise in agreement here.

Reed being one spot over Clingan confirms my "Juwan can do no wrong" theory. 

AZBlue

August 19th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^

Does "no space" 100% confirm that Jace is on a conventional scholarship?  I thought there was some debate when he signed over whether he qualified for a year-to-year scholly -- had to do something with whether he took an official or not iirc.  

Also - Do you see this reclassifying phenomenon as something that will be more common going forward?  If so do you think it will behoove programs like M to hold an open scholarship past the transfer cutoff date?  (Definitely will complicate roster management for top programs.)

AZBlue

August 19th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^

I understand the 4-year scholarship policy in the B1G. 

The question revolved around his walk-on status.  It was unclear if he was on scholarship when he first committed/came to M.  If he was a true walk-on he could be issued a scholarship each year an extra one was available and thus give some flexibilty on roster size.

USAFA007

August 19th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^

Thanks Matt - I love how this class is shaping up athletically; however, do you think it's problematic that no one seems to be a bona fide shooter? I see a lot of guys who are interior scorers and/or playmakers, but to win a title we need some snipers. Curious if you think any of the guys in this class will fit the bill?

NJblue2

August 19th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^

Jett might not be an elite Livers level shooter, but close to 40% shooting is pretty damn good. I don't think anyone outside of Houstan would be an elite shooter, but a lot of guys like Bufkin, Barnes, I think Jackson, and hopefully Jett and Yohan can shoot well from outside.

JeepinBen

August 19th, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^

This is a good question, and if I may piggyback on it - Matt, you've mentioned that the transfer portal is a fixture going forward for good and bad. Do you (Matt) think that getting a shooter would be easier from a transfer than getting a playmaker? Spot up shooting, since there will be playmakers at Michigan, should translate as an up-transfer. 

Matt EM

August 19th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^

In general, up-transfer guards are plentiful on the portal market, regardless of whether they're playmakers or shooters. 99.9% of my subscribing coaches are consumed with getting quality bigs since there simply aren't many to go around. Non-pro guards are viewed as a dime a dozen. In other words, you can get a Mike Smith/DeVante Jones type in almost any year. You probably aren't getting a Kofi Cockburn. 

Matt EM

August 19th, 2021 at 5:01 PM ^

As an NBA guy, shooting is probably the most overvalued attribute by fans, at least as it relates to the playoffs. You simply need to be a competent shooting team to win a championship as demonstrated by the last 2 NBA champions. Dominate the rim and you will consistently win.

The college game is a bit different in that the gap between perceived elite players and role players isn't anywhere near as wide, so you get a TON of wasted movement/sets that don't generate any advantage due to talent parity. So in theory you need perimeter shotmakers to compensate. But Michigan's most prolific offensive team of the last 20 years (2013) was 17th nationally in 3% at 38.5% for the season. The national champ (cheating and all), Louisville, was 214th (!) at 33%.

Same story for Michigan's second most prolific offensive team in 2014. 5th nationally at a whopping 40.2% (!). We ended up losing to a Kentucky team that was 230th (!) in 3% at you guessed it, 33%. 

So if you win at the rim.........odds are much higher you win a ring.

outsidethebox

August 19th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^

I was hoping against all hope to see Lively be included here-guess I/we should stop hoping.

Juwan can win a lot of college basketball games with Reed, Traore and Jett-and I sure hope Michigan realizes these three. I believe Jett is one of those special glue-type players who keeps their teammates playing near their potential. 

So far, Juwan has demonstrated elite ability to assess talent, build a roster and scheme to his players' strengths. 

"Don't worry; be happy"

NJblue2

August 19th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^

I think Dug is a perfect fit for Michigan because he doesn't have to be the primary scoring option. He can be a playmaker and run the offense and I think he'd be great off the bench at least as an underclassman. I really, really hope Michigan can get Yohan and Jett to end the class. You'd really have so many different options and looks with the 2-4 positions, that it's very exciting. Matt, do you know where things stand with Yohan, I know you mentioned before they're figuring out a date to visit?

dragonchild

August 19th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^

Hey Matt,

Thanks for the analysis! Having done all this work, I invite some feelingsball as well:  Whose productivity do you think will improve the most in college?

I know recruits are often evaluated for “upside” which (if you ask me) strongly correlates with raw athleticism. I’m trying to avoid that discussion.  I mean more like, knowing what you know about Howard, do any of these commits feel like they might blow up through effective deployment they’re not getting in the HS game?

FWIW I don’t think this is a meaningful question. Just having some brain-tickling fun here.

dragonchild

August 19th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^

Ah. FWIW, my money’s on McDaniel. I’m aware of Howard’s record with bigs, and I figure Reed will certainly be productive, but will his development be such that his HS production won’t skip a beat when the competition level jumps?

OTOH, I’m thinking Howard will immediately do a better job of giving Dug room to work than the HS level, especially if he’s not asked to be a primary scorer.

Matt EM

August 19th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^

The other factor that I accounted for (But failed to convey in my post above) is opportunity. Simply put, Reed will have one big at most that blocks his path to a starting job as a freshman. Dug, on the other hand, will have Collins, Bufkin and perhaps Jackson (and maybe another incoming HS signee/transfer) as potential roadblocks to a starting job.

Just seems much harder for Dug to be an impact rotation player in relation to Reed, particularly as an underclassmen. 

njvictor

August 19th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^

It's time to over-analyze the quantification of over 200 kids that I viewed this spring/summer, so let's get right to it

Lol

I agree overall with a lot of these rankings. Udeh being a fringe 5 star never made sense to me. I think Jett has the potential to be Franz-type that is a slightly worse defender and a better shot creator. I do think I'm slightly higher on Greg Glenn just because I see him as someone who can be a multi year college contributor but may not have that NBA upside. Traore should obviously be priority for the last spot if stays in 2022. If not then, Rodger/Glenn are fall back options if another option doesn't emerge

njvictor

August 20th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^

I definitely don't think Jett has the same NBA upside as Franz, because I think he lacks the size, length, defensive instincts that Franz does, but I think in terms of college production he will end up being similar but hopefully a better shot creator and slightly better shooter

AC1997

August 19th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^

Overall a really solid class and I for one am not too concerned by the potential lack of 5-stars.  Perhaps they will land Traore or just hit the portal, either way I think these recruits set up to build a strong foundation in the program with a lot of "early contributor, long term star" types.  

 

LabattsBleu

August 19th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^

Not singing you out, but its funny how much expectations on basketball recruiting have changed...

Beilien signed one 5* in 7 years... https://mgoblog.com/diaries/review-mbb-recruiting-under-john-beilein-and-comparing-2012-class-2018-class

Even if Michigan misses out on Traore (which I really hope they don't) and sign Glenn, that's a heck of a class...with 4 top 100 kids (based on the current 247 composite)...

blueandmaizeballs

August 19th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^

Didn't Dug measure 5 11 at the NBPA camp?     Is that with shoes or without?   And Matt are you saying he is 5 9 without shoes?    Just curious cause 5 11 sounds alot better then 5 8 5 9.    Also does he have a long wing span which will help with his lack of height?   Thanks

blueandmaizeballs

August 19th, 2021 at 9:36 PM ^

Ok.   Pretty sure in an article on here someone put he measured in at 5 11 there that is why I asked.    Was hoping he was maybe still growing and by the time he got here he could be pushing 6 feet.   Just saw how bad Mike Smith struggled with the taller athletic guards and I hope Dug doesn't have the same problems. 

njvictor

August 20th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^

Just saw how bad Mike Smith struggled with the taller athletic guards and I hope Dug doesn't have the same problems. 

This is definitely my biggest worry with Dug that I feel a lot of people on this blog seem to forget. Dug is maybe even smaller than Smith and also doesn't have a consistent jumpshot like Smith. Smith would get absolutely demolished when trying to finish at the rim even in transition. While Dug is definitely more of a vertical athlete and appears to be a more crafty finisher, I do honestly worry about his ability to score in any capacity at the B1G level and to be frank I'd be shocked if he was ever a double digit scorer

blueandmaizeballs

August 19th, 2021 at 9:36 PM ^

Ok.   Pretty sure in an article on here someone put he measured in at 5 11 there that is why I asked.    Was hoping he was maybe still growing and by the time he got here he could be pushing 6 feet.   Just saw how bad Mike Smith struggled with the taller athletic guards and I hope Dug doesn't have the same problems. 

blueandmaizeballs

August 19th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^

Didn't Dug measure 5 11 at the NBPA camp?     Is that with shoes or without?   And Matt are you saying he is 5 9 without shoes?    Just curious cause 5 11 sounds alot better then 5 8 5 9.    Also does he have a long wing span which will help with his lack of height?   Thanks

LabattsBleu

August 19th, 2021 at 10:04 PM ^

Thanks for the breakdown Matt! Great stuff as usual!

its interesting, though I suppose not unexpected (you recruit to the bell), that Udeh has talked about still being in constant communication with Michigan...He seems like more of a 5 than a 4 (which Traore can play)...Any chance they would take Udeh if Troare doesn't work out?

Finally, I see Clingan is #38 on your list...is it fair to say Reed and Clingan are pretty even then? Each with different strengths of course.

Good list...not to critique free content, but if you can make it sortable by column heading, that would be really cool. ;)