[Papa Kante/Top-50 Prospect]

Hoops Recruiting: Let's Talk About Rankings Comment Count

Matt EM August 15th, 2022 at 9:40 AM

With the travel ball season coming to an end, I've finalized my rankings for the 2023 class after extensive evaluation of well over 1000+ prospects from around the country. Full rankings here

As alluded to in previous recruiting updates, this class may very well be the worst collection of talent + depth in recent memory. To put this in context, I only issued 5-star status to nine prospects and the 4-stars end with the #98 overall prospect. And that may have been generous.

With that in mind it's important to adjust expectations in relation to the individual numerical rankings. In general, it's probably best to adjust down 10-20 spots for each prospect when setting expectations in terms of impact/production to account for the relative weakness of the 2023 class. 

Long story short, the numerical rankings for the 2023 class may not correlate to what one expects from a prospect typically ranked at a particular spot.

Here's a detailed look at serious Michigan targets.

 

Papa Kante

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'10 and 225 pounds. Probably closer to a legit 6'8.5 - 6'9 and 215 - 220lbs.

High School/AAU: South Kent School (CT)/Nike EYBL New York Renaissance (NY)

Final EYBL Stats: 10.2ppg, 8.5reb, 1.5blk, 54%% FG and 27.3% from distance on 33 attempts over 26 games

EM Ranking/Projected Impact:  4-star/#48 overall. Expected projection/production more closely aligns with that of a prospect ranked in the 50-70 range as a multi-year college player that may be all-conference level as an upperclassmen. Not likely to make big impact as a freshman.

Short Evaluation: Impact defender that is a switchable big with good agility and defensive instincts on rotations, while being surprisingly disciplined on shot-fakes, etc. Burgeoning offensive skill and getting more comfortable and accurate as a perimeter shooter in recent months. Some potential as a face-up option from the elbows. Still a bit of a tweener that may not be big enough to defend the true mammoths of the B10. Will need development offensively. Multi-year college player.

Latest Recruiting Intel: Still in Africa visiting family, and not expected back until the first weekend of September. The expectation was for Kante to make a public commitment within the next month, but Memphis hired his AAU coach last week and that may complicate things. Papa told On3 that he is pretty far down the road in terms of the decision-making process, but he's still open to any new schools. That may seem hard to reconcile, but I'm inclined to think that means Michigan, Rutgers, Pitt and Maryland are the current top four, but the right school jumping in could change things. From a Michigan perspective, the June OV to Ann Arbor went about as well as it could. Kante is extremely fond of Juwan Howard. My hypothetical crystal ball in favor of Michigan remains at a 5-6 confidence level, but it would be disingenuous of me to say that Memphis hiring Andy Borman doesn't give some pause.

 

Isaiah Collier

Height/Weight: Listed height in the 6'2 - 6'4 range, with listed weight ranging between 170 - 205. Eye test says he's probably a legit 6'2 and 190-195.

High School/AAU: Marietta Wheeler HS (GA)/Nike EYBL The Skill Factory (GA)

Final EYBL Stats: 18.5ppg, 6.5asst, 4.8reb 

EM Ranking/Projected Impact: 5-star/#8 overall. Expected projection/production of a true 5-star prospect, even if it isn't necessarily what is expected of a consensus top-10 prospect as a freshman. Think consistent rotation player that plays 15-20 minutes per game at minimum, with the potential to be a starter by the time February/March comes around. Has positional size/frame that NBA covets, but lacks the desired twitchiness/acceleration and has some unnecessary motion on the shot mechanics that may give GMs some pause. Will likely be all-conference level player in year two if he sticks around in college.

Short Evaluation: High floor prospect with a college ready frame. Playmaking ability for others is off the charts. Better perimeter shotmaker than anticipated, particularly when considering that a good portion of the attempts are difficult pull-ups. Streaky as a shooter, but even if Collier is a consistent mid-30s type shooter from distance, that translates to a guy that has huge impact on the game given his ability to make others better and get downhill off the dribble. Average athlete in terms of acceleration/verticality, but outstanding strength/core balance that allows him to get where he wants off the bounce. He's not necessarily a shifty ballhandler, but he does have a solid handle and controls the ball while not being a big TO risk. 

Latest Recruiting Intel: The Wolverines were initially considered to be last in a race of four, but I'm told the official visit to Ann Arbor placed Michigan in the thick of things heading down the homestretch. Going into the competition's huddle, UCLA Insiders are still confident the Bruins lead, with USC running second, while some Cincinnati insiders openly admit they don't have a strong feel for where things stand. Last week, Collier himself told 247 that he's still in contact with each of his finalists, but is unsure if he'll take more visits and hasn't thought about a decision timeframe.............but thinks a decision will come sooner than later. Reading between the lines, it seems rather obvious that Isaiah isn't giving the media any solid intel and nobody has a true feel for where things are trending at this moment in time. I'm inclined to think this recruitment ends relatively soon and I have my fingers crossed just like everyone else. 

[Hit THE JUMP for Zayden High + Elmarko Jackson]

Zayden High

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'7-6'9/185-225. My eyes say he's a legit 6'8-6'9 and around 210 pounds.

High School/AAU: Arizona Compass Academy (AZ)/Nike EYBL JL3 Elite (TX)

EM Ranking/Projected Impact: 4-star/#51 overall. Expected projection/production looks like a typical prospect in the Beilein-era. Needs a year of strength and conditioning before being an impact player in year two. Multi-year college player with potential to be all-conference player in year two and beyond. Might be a bit too small and limited athletically to be enticing for NBA purposes. 

Short Evaluation: Skilled F/C that can knock down perimeter shots off the catch or the bounce, put the ball on the floor for a few dribbles and make a play. Athleticism a bit below average in terms of agility + vertical pop. Tweener that lacks the size/length to defend B10 centers with NBA size, and probably not agile enough to check legit wings on the perimeter. 

Latest Recruiting Intel: I'm told that Zayden kept a good poker face for the majority of his OV to Ann Arbor. But the protective wall started to show signs of overt happiness on the final day of the visit. Gave standard fluff to Rivals in the aftermath. Much like Kante, HC Juwan Howard is resonating in a major way with High. Playstyle/lineup combinations under Coach Howard means that Zayden can realistically see himself playing a more perimeter oriented PF position, which is appealing to him. He plays things close to the vest, so its difficult to ascertain the primary competition. Took OV to Villanova in June along with unofficial visit to Texas. Accepted thought seems to indicate that North Carolina + Arkansas and the aforementioned programs are seriously in the mix. 

 

Elmarko Jackson

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'3 and 185 pounds. That appears very accurate to my eyes.

High School/AAU: Recently transferred to South Kent in CT (now teammates w/Papa Kante)/Under Armour WeR1 (DE)

EM Ranking/Projected Impact: 4-star/#27 overall. Expected projection/production of a prospect in the 30-50 range. Will be physically ready to compete at the high-major level from the day he steps foot on a college campus. But may need refinement as a decision-maker depending on his role given the roster construction for any given team. High ceiling with NBA potential depending on development. 

Short Evaluation: Twitchy athlete with some real acceleration + verticality + strength. Considerable improvement as a shooter over the last year means he's now an above-average perimeter shotmaker, particularly as a pull-up shooter. Above-average handle with ability to change direction/speed with a live dribble. Decision-making in terms of playmaking is still inconsistent, but there are flashes there that allow one to project him favorably in that regard. 

Latest Recruiting Intel: Expected to cut list this week. Last week Jackson told 247 that Maryland, Miami, Texas, UCLA and Villanova are the schools recruiting him the hardest. In an interview with Zags Blog the same day, he also listed VCU + Virginia as schools that have been consistent in their pursuits. Either way, no mention of Michigan doesn't seem particularly good. Still, I'd expect the Wolverines to be in consideration given the well-known family ties. But with an early-signing period decision coming, the staff needs to go all-in here if Elmarko is going to be in this class. As mentioned before, its not an either/or scenario with Collier + Jackson. The staff will absolutely take both. But that may be good/bad depending on one's interpretation. 

 

 

Comments

Rendezvous

August 15th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^

My question exactly. Seems like Matt's reply could be an entire post by itself. My guess is that a primary cause is the Covid lockdown impacting development opportunities. However, I wonder how much the AAU etc. growth has created players who are more show and less substance in terms of teamwork, off-ball play, and other details. Would love it if Matt has the time to write an in depth article on this.

njvictor

August 15th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^

Collier is definitely a prospect I want, but I think the fact that he's a top 10 or top 5 prospect just shows how much talent has dropped off in recent years. Thinking back like 8-10 years, a PG who's not an absolutely elite athlete and a streaky shooter being ranked that high feels like it was almost unheard of. Collier seems like he would've been ranked in the 20-30 range back then. 

Also, Michigan not being mentioned with Jackson is concerning. Maybe we feel good about Collier? But then again it seems like we'd take both.

What is the expected size of the 2023 class? Because it seems like we are only seriously recruiting 3-4 guys and we're in good position with only like 1 of them

Matt EM

August 15th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^

While there is some risk as you note, the fact that his class lacks a ton of talent, means that striking out on HS targets isn't likely to be a huge detriment to the program in the portal era to be candid.

The conversations among coaching staffs all across the country have absolutely shifted from "where does this kid stand among X/Y/Z players at A/B/C position?" to "is this kid better than what we can get in the portal without investing years of time?". That, I can 100% guarantee.

In other words, free agency is at least on par with HS recruiting, and in many cases, takes priority over it. 

denverblue

August 15th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^

Perhaps we can't run a wild-west free agency like so many other schools have, due to, as you said, the credit transfer issue. And I also don't any of us expect to see any movement on that anytime soon, either.

That said, I feel like M has done very well with, and has in fact made a shift to, more of both those freshman transfers via Beilein (Duncan Robinson, Charles Matthews) and especially grad transfers under Juwan (Mike Smith, DeVante Jones, Chaundee Brown, Jaelin Llewellyn, Joey Baker).

So I'd say we are taking full advantage of the portal within our limits, especially in the context of compared to using a scholarship on a more fringe freshman recruit and banking on developing the.

I think this question sums up the shift: why risk banking on development of a young kid/invest time to do said development when you can continually add older, more developed, bigger sample size/increased competition players and take more of the risk out of it?

All the more so then in a year then considered to be weak.

Jordan2323

August 15th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^

I guess the grad transfer part is what I was getting at, that’s primarily the only portal route we will be able to do. If we can successfully continue to navigate that then great. I can see filling one to two spots a year with them, depending on roster needs but I think you still need to get some quality high school kids as well. I’d be happy if we would settle on Elmarko and Papa and call it a day until you know the team needs and then hit the portal for another player. 

NJblue2

August 15th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^

The recruiting vibes don't feel great right now outside of Kante, and even then Rutgers seems like a big threat. 

Really hope they can close on at least the 2 guards and Kante.

Matt EM

August 15th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^

Re: Declining Talent

I'm afraid that I can't answer that question intelligently. High-level coaching/training/facilities at the HS level seem to be at an all-time high with the consolidation of upper-tier talent at NIBC schools such as Montverde/IMG/Sunrise, etc............so it doesn't make a ton of sense on the surface.

What I will say is that increased emphasis on perimeter play may be a logical explanation to a certain extent. Every kid in America is training to be a PG these days, and yet only 1 player on the court per team is typically given the freedom to take more than 2-3 dribbles during any single possession.

So when said kids transition to college, they simply aren't accustomed to putting in the necessary work off-the-ball in terms of mastering precision routes when navigating screens, cutting at appropriate times, accurate post-entry passes, etc.

A good example would be Brandon Johns. He played the PG/SG/SF position in HS and the SF position in AAU (at least his last year on the EYBL circuit). As there was a ton of excitement among the Michigan fanbase when he committed, as the prevailing thought was that he was functionally a "big guard". But it was pretty obvious he was never going be a creator/strong perimeter option in college..............and he simply wasn't good enough in the other areas to be an impact player in Ann Arbor. Sometimes having a defined role that largely correlates with size isn't such a bad thing.

In other words, position-less basketball sounds good in theory............but functionally it can result in 4-5 guys on a team that all consider themselves on-ball guards, but only 1 ball to dribble. 

 

Matt EM

August 15th, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^

For college purposes, the 2022 class was atrocious as well. The lack of depth is just as bad as the 2023 class. It got a bit of a late boost with GG Jackson and a few others reclassifying, so it doesn't look as bad on the top end.

I will say that talent has been steadily declining since about 2019. I haven't seen enough of the 2024 class and beyond to speak with confidence on the future.  

trueblueintexas

August 15th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^

To summarize, high-school players are better physically but need more basketball IQ development than before because they are not learning the skills specific to their best positions...

With the typical improvement one sees between the freshman and sophomore season with so many players, it seems like it would be in a players best interest to play two years in college and then go to the draft. I know all of the data says to go after one year (I made a whole post about it in one of the countless Diabate & Houstan threads) but with NIL, as a parent, I'd be strongly encouraging my kid to stay in school two years instead of one for many reasons.

That assumes you pick a school with a good coach who will help you develop in the right areas. Maybe that part of college coaching is starting to slip? 

Matt EM

August 15th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^

The fundamental issues that CBB is facing:

1) Player control movement has trickled down from the NBA and will only get stronger. Mass attrition/transfers from the portal is the new norm. Development doesn’t have the same pull as it did even 2-3 years ago because coaches simply won’t have the time to do so in most cases.

2) The NBA draft is functionally 3 rounds instead of 2 now. There were nearly 30 UDFA signings this year. So the unwritten rule of “stay in college unless you get 1st rd feedback” is totally obsolete now. Players are more than happy to be 2nd rd/UDFA if it means they can be done with school. That, in tandem with overseas options starting to be more lucrative, presents a huge problem for retention.

 

Simple Translation = Overall CBB talent will continue to decline 

 

trueblueintexas

August 15th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^

I agree the change in transfer rules (combined with "NIL recruiting") makes the college landscape completely different. I understand the allure of getting transfers who already have a couple years of college experience. It's like hiring a new entry level employee. Do you want the person who has some professional work experience already or the person who is going to have to learn everything about working professionally? 

I'm old school and believe college provides many benefits beyond simply an education (or in the case of sports, skills development). If the pool of players who really have no interest in education or the personal development which takes place in college is big enough, it really would be better for the G league or oversees options to become a viable path to the NBA.

Rendezvous

August 15th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^

Aside from your first sentence, Matt, I agree with everything you have written. Thanks for the response and your perspective. 

Additional, related, questions: In your view, are AAU and high-level HS coaches emphasizing star development, perhaps hoping to hitch their wagons to those stars, at the expense of team development, which might more emphasize those skills you gave in your response? Or do you think the trend is more a function of the overall culture of the sport?

Matt EM

August 15th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^

I'm sure the there are coaches riding the wave of potential pros is at least part of the equation here. But in my opinion, I think that emphasis placed on individual training/skill development exclusive of team practice is partially attributable here. While each kid gets stronger in terms of ballhandling (every trainer on the planet does cone training) and pull-up jumpers, it doesn't necessarily help one in 5v5 settings where spatial awareness + timing are critical.

In sum, training against air may not be as beneficial as good ole' five versus five action, at least in the context of optimizing one's value when playing off-ball.

AC1997

August 15th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^

Interesting....I do think that Covid had an impact on this class as well since they lost a lot of basketball at a key age of their development.

I wonder also about your theory in the context of the explosion of AAU/Travel teams.  You mentioned the power-houses, but now there are just so many programs that people are moving around constantly - both their club teams and high school teams.  While some are doing it to get better coaching or competition, others are doing it so that they can "be the man" at a different school and thus furthering the issue you highlighted.  They aren't learning how to be a complimentary player.  

My son is a 2025 (though basketball is not his primary sport) and he's the type of try-hard kid who knows that what he's really good at is doing those complimentary things (defense, rebounding, passing, communication, effort).  Without fail, every year he starts the season behind in the depth chart all of the kids I like to call "playground heroes."  These guys are more athletic, shoot better, jump higher, etc.  They would dominate on a playground.  But rarely do they have any clue what their role should be on a better team.  They're lost on defense, rarely look to pass, get confused whenever a play is run (even when run for them), think the only way to score is by initiating the offense, etc.  

Jibbroni

August 15th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^

Reclassifications?

edit: meant to be an answer to the first posts question.  At any rate, I see Im late to this party and I’ll just see myself out.  

outsidethebox

August 15th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^

I do not believe there is any question that "basketball IQ" has suffered at the expense of the premium that is being placed upon physical talent. And due to the nature of how this game is played...fast-paced, continuous action-the beauty of this game is often lost/diminished. Just the brief clips of recruit Collins playing give my heart hope and joy-he has "it". Physical talent is important but so is knowing  how to catalyze said talent. 

CaliforniaNobody

August 15th, 2022 at 5:07 PM ^

After Houstan and Diabate, the guys who are ranked highly but definitely need multiple years in college terrify me. Now more than ever it seems like if a guy is a 5 star, or close, he's set on going pro no matter what after year 1. And then you can end up giving them minutes they haven't earned in the hopes it helps them in a year 2 that never comes. That said they're also more likely pulls than the top 5 lottery picks as freshmen type of guys, so I guess it comes w the territory.