THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

This is a game with Implications.

Next up on the tour: Purdue, now surging up the conference standings by virtue of a couple of thrilling comebacks against Michigan State and Ohio State—I knew we liked you for a reason, Purdue—and relatively comfortable wins over Indiana and Penn State. They're 6-3 and on the fringe of the conference title picture with a relatively forgiving stretch run. If they were to win this one they'd be a game back with just one game left against M/Iowa/Wisconsin/OSU, the top four teams in the league per Kenpom.

Also it's at Mackey. I don't know how much I believe in weird road juju in a season without fans, but two games after Michigan got demolished at Minnesota I'm still a little jumpy.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

We've moved Zeb Jackson into the ninth man slot ahead of Terrance Williams given their relative amounts of time in the last few games.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

We put a badge on Painter because this team doesn't have a lot of guys who stand out as individual defenders but they manage to piece together quality defenses anyway.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Williams is in the arena [Campredon]

Purdue has a tendency to concentrate usage in one guy, and hoo boy is that the case this year. Junior center Trevion Williams is second nationally in usage at a whopping 35.3%. Williams is an odd duck, a below-the-rim big with limited range and a spooky ability to make any shot in the paint a decent one:

Synergy shot charting, redder is better

Michigan got the business end of that last year when Williams went 15/27 from two (and hit a rare three) against Jon Teske in Michigan's 84-78 2OT escape last January. The flipside of that: Williams went 8/20 in the return game. Williams does not create many great shots; he creates buckets of decent ones. He's a career 54% two-point shooter—not great for a post—but he's been able to maintain that level of efficiency, or even pip up a bit, despite shouldering a massive burden this year.

Williams is also a magnificent passer. His 28 assist rate is 7th in the league this year, and with a better supporting cast he'd easily crest 30. Williams has a trademark no-look behind-the-head assist that shocks viewers every time no matter how many times you see it—and occasionally shocks his teammates. That basketball IQ also helps him on the boards, where he's top 30 on defense and ninth nationally on offense.

Williams does have a suite of flaws. He's not much of a rim protector with a 3.1 block rate. Purdue is best in the conference at preventing teams from getting to the rim, but they've got the worst defense once teams get there. Williams is part of the former, of course, as Purdue plays excellent team defense just like they have every year under Painter. He's a lot of the latter.

Williams is also a miserable FT shooter (49% career, 48% this year) who is difficult to play late in games. This is a game where Austin Davis could foul out in ten minutes and it would be completely fine. Williams also has a tendency to pick up silly fouls early in games. He's missed big chunks of the first half in three or four games this year.

Hunter is long for a PG but not real efficient [Campredon]

The other high-usage starter is point guard Eric Hunter, a wiry 6'4" junior with dubious efficiency. He's shooting 39/31/88 this year, and those numbers aren't far off his career marks of 43/32/78. Hunter gets to the rim a fair bit but struggles to finish through contact. He's hitting just 39% there, which has to be one of the worst marks in Big Ten. Hunter's eFG in the halfcourt is also 39%; he's just short of a 20 TO rate. It's not great when that's your second banana.

Hunter's size does pose a problem for opposition point guards. Big Ten PGs have struggled badly against Purdue, and while Purdue switches a lot because their personnel 1-4 is capable of it, Hunter is more responsible for those struggles than anyone else on the roster. Hammer and Rails:

Hunter has turned into a really good, aggressive defender on ball. He’s got long arms, good balance, and quick feet. At times he was the most effective guard defender on a team with Nojel Eastern.

This might be of limited relevance if every Michigan possession is a post touch followed by a double and scramble mode. If Painter lets the interior battle be one-on-one Michigan's perimeter guys will get a stiff test.

The rest of the crew is very much supporting cast. Junior Sasha Stefanovic is the Purdue Just A Shooter, which means he's Just A Shooter with a minor in running around insanely fast with no apparent dropoff in his accuracy. Stefanovic is hitting 46% from deep this year, up from 38% last year, but he's had a harder time in Big Ten play at 36%. In all other ways he's the same guy he was last year.

Freshman SG Brandon Newman is in our Not Just A Shooter bin but should probably drop the "not" as a freshman: he splits his attempts evenly between twos and threes, is much more effective behind the line(38%) than inside it(47%), and has a TO rate near 20. Purdue's frequently clunky offense is probably forcing him into situations he's not quite ready for. As a recruit he was just outside the top 100 because he fit the Purdue Shooter archetype to a T:

Measurables aren’t great for a prospect who plays off the ball at 6-foot-3. One of the best catch-and-shoot guys in the country. Should stretch the defense quite a bit during his time at Purdue. Can flat out shoot it from deep. Is OK off the dribble, but mostly excels off the catch.

Force off line, deal with the consequences, you know the drill.

Freshman burlywing Mason Gillis is the final starter. He mostly stays out of the way on offense (13% usage) unless someone else sets him up for a dunk or three—he's got two unassisted, non-putback shots at the rim this year. He's shooting 71% on twos as a result. He also has an okay three-point stroke and has hit 14/16 FTs on the year.

Gillis chips in some offensive rebounds, as befits a burlywing, and has a 22 TO rate that's particularly vexing because he's barely dribbling.

Purdue's bench is deep but not particularly efficient. The cast:

• Freshman center Zach Edey is the largest human I've ever seen in a Purdue uniform. This puts him high in the running for largest human world-wide. The 7'4, 285 pound Edey has terrifying potential. Inevitably for a freshman the size of Grave Digger, he is a work in progress. Shooting 58% from the floor, 8.7 block rate that's good but maybe not as good as you might expect for his size, tons of turnovers. Way better movement than you'd expect, but still not good.
• Freshman wing Jaden Ivey is an athlete who looks like he's going to be a player; he is currently a guy who can't shoot and shoots a lot. He gets up 30% of Purdue's shots when he's on the court; he's hitting 54/21 and is currently 52% from the line. That 54% from two is really two very different numbers: Ivey is 77% at the rim and 29% away from it. Ivey is creating most of his twos himself, so that's a point in his favor, and has a rock-bottom TO rate.
• Poor damn Aaron Wheeler has recovered somewhat from a disastrous sophomore year, mostly by refusing to shoot from two in Big Ten play. He is 4/5. Wheeler is long at 6'9" and has evolved into a defensive pest; he's Purdue's best option to double Dickinson. A 25 TO rate and 26% three-point shooting may make it hard to keep him out there unless he's super-effective on D.
• You probably remember willowy backup point Isaiah Thompson—who somehow lost five pounds after his first season in a college S&C program—from that 2 OT win last year when he came off the bench to put up 14 points on 10 shot equivalents. This year he's seen his playing time wane after starting the first five games when Hunter was out. Other than a 4/4 outburst against Rutgers all of his makes in league play have been from deep.
• Finally, freshman Ethan Morton is an 11% usage guy with a 39% TO rate. He should be another perimeter sniper once he gets his feet under him.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference numbers; left is offense, right is defense.

Purdue's got a lot of red in drill-down offensive stats. They're 12th in 3P%, 9th in FT%, 12th in getting blocked, and 10th in giving up steals. Things are better on defense, but it jumps out that they're giving up a ton of threes and a lot of assists. They are 341st nationally in preventing 3s and 330th at preventing assists.

As mentioned in the Trevion Williams section above, Purdue has some remarkable shooting splits. They're 8th nationally at preventing teams from getting to the rim, and 330th once teams get there. Opponents end up taking all those threes, making them at a mediocre rate.

Purdue also has a remarkable transition split on Hoop-Math: opponent eFG is actually six points lower (44%) in the first ten seconds of the clock than in the halfcourt (50%). That is the second-best high major number in the country, behind only Washington State.

THE KEYS

This projects to be one of Davis's best matchups of the year [Campredon]

POST THUNDERDOME. Two KPOY top ten centers go head to head. Can Dickinson keep his spot against the meaty Williams? Can he endure 35% usage without picking up fouls? Can Williams meaningfully contest Dickinson shots? Will Purdue double the post as heavily as Minnesota and Maryland? Will Zach Edey blot out the sun and various shots? Can Austin Davis go toe-to-toe with Williams? Questions will be answered!

Purdue has not faced a ton of post-ups this year—91 possessions including pass-outs—but they have doubled on 38 of those. Their results aren't great (40th percentile on Synergy). Individually, Williams grades out as an average post defender*. (Edey barely has any sample size.) Kofi Cockburn went 7/9; Trayce Jackson-Davis went 9/16 and drew 14 FTs. Dickinson post ups should be relatively productive.

On the other end, I mean… Williams is going to get up a bunch of shots of middling quality. They will fall or they will not. The invariability of this means Davis can see the floor without the alarming 2P% we saw against Maryland, and aggressively contest a bunch of shots by a 47% FT shooter. If he fouls out he's done his job.

*[We're usually skeptical of Synergy individual defensive numbers since basketball is not often a one-on-one sport and their numbers often fail the smell test, but post defense feels like an exception.]

All hail Gamblor. The gods of randomness will have a heavy influence on this game what with Williams throwing up a bunch of coin flips and the likelihood both teams take a bunch of threes. Purdue has been wildly variable from behind the line in their last four, hitting 13%, 19%, and 25% against MSU, PSU, and OSU, respectively, while also bombing Indiana at 65%. They flipped that script on the defensive end with three games where the opposition shot 25% or under until OSU just hit them in a 14/35 performance.

Break the perimeter. If Michigan gets up more shots at the rim than they do long twos, they win. Purdue's highly organized but Michigan has a couple of advantages: the possibility that Dickinson forces doubles and forces Purdue into rotations, and Franz Wagner's crazy gumby arms.

Continue reasonable turnover performance. Purdue is another team that doesn't force a lot of turnovers. Michigan halved its TO rate from the disastrous Minnesota game to the comfortable Maryland one, and that Minnesota game is a giant outlier in what's otherwise a story of steady improvement in Big Ten play:

Michigan's two best games actually bookend the ambush at the Barn.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.