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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#3 Michigan (15-1, 10-1 B1G) vs #4 Ohio State (18-4, 12-4)
WHERE	Draftkings Arena Columbus, OH
WHEN	1PM Eastern Sunday, February 21st
THE LINE	Kenpom: OSU -1 Torvik: OSU -1
TELEVISION	CBS (yay!) PBP: probably Jim Nantz? Analyst: Bill Raftery, right?

THE OVERVIEW

We have come to it at last: Michigan’s end-of-the-year gauntlet that is likely to get the postponed Illinois (#6 to Kenpom) game shoehorned somewhere between a visit from Iowa (#3) a visit to Ohio State (#5), and perilous trips to Assembly Hall and Breslin. The other contenders all have similar schedules. March Madness has nothing on the next two weeks of basketball in the Midwest.

The Tour du Péril begins Sunday afternoon in Columbus, in the most significant game yet played in the nation’s toughest conference. Ohio State is very good, so good that in a normal year they’d probably be the conference frontrunners, and head coach Chris Holtmann a shoe-in for Big Ten coach of the year. Of course it’s not a normal year. The conference is a minefield stalked by terminators. Juwan Howard can’t give a player a ball, or a hand up off the floor, without announcers, rival talk radio hosts, and national pundits praising the job he’s done this year.

Meanwhile Ohio State’s been on a tear, going 10-1 since early January with road wins over Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa in that stretch. Their season has been a mirror of Michigan’s, right down to an early mid-major upset they escaped and would rather forget (UMass Lowell) and a blowout at the hands of Minnesota at The Barn. Their other losses are by a point on a bad shooting night at Northwestern, and a season sweep at the hands of Purdue, one of those being the game Liddell was out. They still have Iowa and Illinois rematches, but OSU gets to host those too. A win over Michigan and a Big Ten title and a 1-seed are on the table. If the Wolverines walk out of Columbus with a W like the football team would have, the thus-far COVID-free Buckeyes’ only shot at a regular season crown is lobbying the conference to reward it solely on most wins. This is The Game.

Being in Some Kevin Warren Bullshit™ range is all the more incredible when you look at the parts Holtmann is summing. They’re an elite offense—#3 overall to Kenpom & Torvik—despite not doing anything remarkably well except taking care of the ball, drawing fouls, and making free throws. Their defense is hovering between Maryland and Nebraska in the in-conference efficiency rankings. Nobody in the rotation is taller than 6-8. Only two of their guards are major threats from the arc, one of those is the most extreme Just a Shooter™ we’ve ever graphed, and there’s nothing like a traditional point guard. I’m not sure how that equals a top-5 team either, but it’s been weeks since we could plausibly pass it off as a fluke.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Michigan is coming off two impressive but clunky victories over Wisconsin and Rutgers following a 20-day state-directed shutdown for  B117 variant outbreak in the athletic department, 14 days of which was spent in isolation. The grating conclusion of the Rutgers game dropped Michigan a crucial few points so Iowa could slip ahead of them in Kenpom. Hunter Dickinson is barely hanging onto the end of the KPOY top ten. They fell from 10th to 23rd in foul avoidance and are deep last among tourney hopefuls (310th overall) in free throw percentage against. The local sports blog has a new logo and readers who could spot a missing tooth in earlier times aren’t even picking up on it. It’s first-world rough in Ann Arbor right now.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Liddell is a modern basketball center trapped in an Isaiah Livers body. [Campredon]

There isn’t a weirder great player in the Big Ten than E.J. Liddell, and certainly not a more improved one. A bit player last year, Liddell rocked up to 240, and has been making it work as a 6-7 center while filling the stat sheet on the other end. On thick usage he’s shooting 55/34, hitting the leaderboards in ORtg, true shooting, rebounding at both ends, turnover rate(!), and block rate, without picking up many fouls of his own. He doesn’t have to get to the rim to be efficient either; he’s hitting 50% on two-point jumpers.

Liddell is also Number 1 at drawing fouls in a conference with Luka Garza and Kofi Cockburn in it, making 75% of his free throws. He has only taken 44 threes and is 29% lifetime from the arc, but he’s out there, which means you have to be as well. No these numbers do not make any kind of sense, except his arms are extremely long and he picked up a Wesson-sized butt in the offseason that makes him very tough to dislodge. In 20 years he’s going to walk into a YMCA, beat a team of zoomers by 50, and leave them having to request a box score to figure out who did it to them.

#32 the center

Playing Liddell at the five allows them to shift Kyle Young (60/35) to the four, where he’s less of a liability as a defender and can earn a living as the cleanup man on offense. He’s good at assisted baskets, putbacks, and drawing a whistle then canning two. His two-pointers rarely stray far from the rim, but go in at an efficient clip. As a defender however, the 15 pounds Liddell has on him mean a heck of a lot more than Young’s extra inch of height. Young gets bullied by true bigs, but still moves like a center. He’s just enough of a threat to can a three that they can use him on the court with Liddell, but Young’s inability to play center accounts for a big portion of the MacGuyvering by Holtmann this year.

Spelling those guys has been iffy. Freshman Zed Key is a 6-8, Wesson-shaped traditional big who’s money at the rim but not the same kind of threat to can a free throw. Senior Seth Towns, the 2014(!) Michigan target/Harvard transfer who was OSU’s “one shot at an alpha” once upon a preseason preview, is Just a Shooter™ on this team, in that when he gets the ball he’s going to shoot it.

One of the secrets we have figured out is Justice Sueing, a Cal transfer who’s found his role as a drive-and-distribute athlete whose assist rate actually goes up with the competition. He was a high-volume 30% outside shooter in the Pac-12 but has taken exactly as many as Liddell this year. Injuries in the backcourt earlier this year seemed to help Sueing find his confidence as a driver; he’s shooting 72% at the rim on a lot of opportunities, and he’s gotten better at kicking it out to the sharpshooters instead of testing his jumper, as well as drawing fouls, contributing to the parade of charity points. Sueing is still quite Pac-12 as a defender.

Duane Washington is not just a shooter but is very much a SHOOTER [Campredon]

Nobody in the backcourt could be considered a true point guard, but PG Duane Washington is an accurate passer along the baseline, which sets up a lot of those triples by his teammates. He’s a gunner, not a playmaker, and his Synergy defensive grade looks worse than his film. His not infrequent ventures inside the arc find the bottom of the basket just as often as his deep shot, so running him off the line is crucial, but that’s also easier said than done: he was 4/5 from three last night against PSU’s brilliant pest Jamari Wheeler. At 6-3 he’s also going to be a tough ask for Mike Smith.

The graphic above on Just a Shooter™ type specimen Justin Ahrens is not an error.

I took the axis off to save space but those graphs show shot equivalents per 30 minutes. Ahrens is at 4.01 (Washington is at 4.29), and has taken just three shots inside of the arc all season. The Ahrens discoveries are a gift to every hoops anthropologist studying Homo Justashooterpithecus.

Ahrens moved into the starting lineup when CJ Walker, the closest thing to a calming presence among the guards, went out with a sprained hand. That injury is still damaging Walker’s shot—but not his free throws—and ability to create, but OSU will rotate him liberally with Ahrens and Washington to keep a defensive presence on the court.

Freshman wing Eugene Brown has been getting more run as of late. For now he’s classified as another Justashooterpithecus.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Left: conference-only offense. Right: conference-only defense. Last column: nat average.

For a middling defensive team these are really good defensive numbers. OSU is the polar opposite of Rutgers: the Buckeyes aren’t going to try to steal much, but they box out and stay in front of shooters. At the rim is another matter—OSU’s good-looking glass work is part Liddell but also that reminder of the old adage about Nebrasketball: made baskets don’t usually give up rebounds.

I know, I know, that does not look like an elite offense. Decent yes, but 4th in the country? I am the guy at the Y watching Liddell towel off. Their turnover rate has gone up a full point in conference play but remains solid. Mostly it’s the free throws. They get a lot of them, and they miss very few of them.

THE KEYS

Don’t be like last time. [Campredon]

Run Them Off the Line. Do not leave Ahrens alone on the perimeter. Do not leave Washington alone either. Yeah, easier said than done, but Michigan’s on a whole different level when it comes to forcing shooters into midrange pull-ups.

Single Up Sueing, Liddell, and Washington. Michigan has a few of its own mutants to bring to the mutant fight. Ohio State is a whole team of fourth guys, but they’re doing it by having a few guys very good at bit roles. Michigan’s been able to force some lite versions of five-out offenses to push their usage to the role players.

Dickinson FTW: Weirdness, schmeirdness: Michigan’s center has five inches and 20 pounds on anyone he’s going against. Feast, or do the Maryland thing if they double: Illinois lost but Kofi Cockburn was 7/7 from the field with six OREBs and everyone in the aftermath was asking why they didn’t get the ball to him more. Purdue played their kid giant Zach Edey for 19 minutes and OSU had to abandon the post, going 1/5 as a team at the rim in that loss despite making a lot of contested threes.

Make Tinfoil Hat Craig Ross Apologize to the Refs on Thursday: Ohio State is very good at getting the matchups they want, and have a few crafty, patient, and weird players who know how to convert that into contact. They also need those whistles to score points. On the other side Michigan is a foul-averse team with a huge disparity between Dickinson and his backup in matters of perimeter defense. Something’s gotta give.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Ohio State by 1.

Thanks a lot Kenpom.

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