Hoops Preview: MSU 2022-23, Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #53 Michigan (14-12, 8-7 Big Ten) vs #31 Michigan State (16-9, 8-6 Big Ten) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
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| WHEN | 8 PM Saturday | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: M -1 Torvik: M –1 |
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| TELEVISION | FOX |
THE OVERVIEW
Sports are just sports and some things are bigger than sports. Our deepest condolences go out to the MSU community. We're going to carry on because there's nothing else to do. Write your state senator.
Michigan is more or less just playing out the string at this point after narrow losses to Indiana and Wisconsin put their tourney hopes on life support. "Must win" is not quite literal yet since Michigan can get on the right side of the bubble, per Torvik by going 4-1 down the stretch. That would put them at 18-13, 12-8 in the league. They'd have a shot.
It's difficult to see that as a realistic possibility after Wisconsin just crushed them on the offensive boards and won a game without scoring a bucket in the last 10:45, but it is within the realm of, uh, reality that Michigan is not dead yet. They are absolutely on the cart.
Anyway: MSU is still about as mediocre as they appeared when Michigan clunked their way to a narrow loss at Breslin in a game where no one could buy a bucket. They're 8-6 in the league but have three good nonconference wins to hang their hats on and are currently a 7-seed in the Bracket Matrix and on Torvik. They're about 20 points higher in the Kenpom rankings than Michigan, FWIW.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
We don't know the status of Terrance Williams for this one.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
MSU is full-go. Seth would like to emphasize that MSU assist rates are inflated.
THE THEM
As is customary for return games, I refer you to the previous preview for an overview of MSU's personnel. Updates:
- Malik Hall never regained his starting job and MSU goes with a three-guard lineup of Hoggard, Walker, and Jaden Akins. Hall continues to get 20-28 minutes as MSU uses him like a sixth starter.
- Joey Hauser, Walker, Hall, and Akins comprise a dangerous group of outside shooters. Akins is the worst of those four at 39%. MSU is usually playing two non-shooters in Hoggard and Revolving Door Center, though, so they have trouble getting threes up.
- Mady Sissoko has cut his foul rate drastically but is still at 5.2 per 40 and is only playing about half of MSU minutes. Freshman Jaxon Kohler gets the bulk of the remainder.
- This is a seven-man rotation, mostly, with spot duty from a couple other guys.
THE TEMPO FREE
This is a jumpshooting team without a whole lot of ability to get to the basket:
They're excellent at shooting threes (34th nationally) and poor inside the arc (286th) but only get off threes on a third of their shots. Just 29% of their shots are at the rim and they're bad there (57%); they make up for it by being 40% on other twos.
Defensively, they are in the top 20 nationally and they are first in conference play. Some of that is anomalously poor three-point shooting from opponents—Big Ten teams are shooting 27% from three against MSU. As we've discussed time and again, this is probably just luck and they are due for a regression. Part of that might be the Izzo factor: MSU gives up more FTAs than any Big Ten team… but probably should be giving up more.
THE KEYS
Hit a shot. Michigan was 3/20 from three at the Breslin center on mostly good looks as MSU doubled Dickinson. MSU was 6/19. That was the main difference in a six point game.
Dig deep within yourself and find something you actually want to play for? I cannot emphasize enough that WISCONSIN, which is three hundred billionth in D-1 at offensive rebounding, absolutely crushed Michigan on the glass. This team doesn't want to play defense or anything that really requires effort. I dislike watching this team in a way I have not disliked watching a Michigan team in a long time.
The exception is Tarris Reed. Speaking of…
Stop screwing around and start Reed at the 4. Unlike other options, he gives you something on both ends of the floor. Will Tschetter is a liability defensively and your spacing isn't going to be any worse with Reed than with 27% three-point shooter Terrance Williams on the floor.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 1. Man, the gimmick is relentless this year.
February 17th, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
Hoping we don't get "unlucky" again down the stretch led by our mistake-prone freshman PG, two young talented 2/3 men who don't like the ball late in the game, and our "star" big man who talks more than he leads or walks. Bonus points if TWill is in over Reed or Baker down the stretch.
As you can see, I'm feeling pretty confident.
February 17th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Just stop watching, man. Seems like you don't enjoy it.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^
Let's not pretend anyone enjoys watching a talented team miss the tourney. I of course want to beat MSU, and I think there's a good chance we will.
What I don't want to hear is anymore nonsense about how unlucky we are.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:08 PM ^
No, this season has been distinctly un-fun. But the team isn't very good, so they play in a lot of close games. And in close games the outcome is much more subject to randomness. I think that's all people are talking about when they talk about luck. I don't think anyone is saying this is a good team that keeps getting unlucky results.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
And I couldn't philosophically disagree more. Bad luck is the Lions losing on a 66 yard field goal. Bad luck is losing because Jordan Morgan misses a putback as time expires.
Bad luck is not going scoreless in the last 5 minutes of a game at home in a must win game. You don't lose to CMU because of bad luck. Losing to UNC because Bacot destroyed Dickinson is not bad luck.
You're right we are a mediocre team that can play at a high level for stretches and even games. Had we won a couple of more close games we would be in tourney. But we didn't. And not because of luck.
February 18th, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^
We’ve been in a world that shuns the truth.
February 17th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
As a moderately talented basketball player—if "moderate" means pretty crappy—I had little to offer but hustle.
It hurt my soul when more talented players relied on their talent and didn't hustle.
Dear University of Michigan basketball team, please don't hurt my soul.
Go Blue!
February 17th, 2023 at 7:38 PM ^
Lack of hustle isn't the issue. That's what white guys sitting in their armchairs slurping bad beer project onto talented young Black men (mostly) when they don't nourish their egos by winning for them.
February 17th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
White guys are the worst!
February 17th, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
From "Things Discussed" on the WTKA Roundtable yesterday: "Effort? Got crushed on the boards by a team that doesn't offensive rebound. Very hard to watch this team. Guards and wings not boxing out. Some of that's youth."
Does your damning assumption extend to Sam, Brian, Seth, and Craig?
It seems to me you took an unfortunate phenomenon of white people condescending to judge talented Black athletes (e.g., the Super Bowl) and applied it indiscriminately. As I recall, your comments usually make better points and don't descend to the sniping of some of our MGo brothers and sisters. But here it almost seems as if you were seeking someone to accuse.
FWIW, I don't have an arm chair; I don't drink alcohol, good or bad; and though my ego may be impoverished, I am one of those—the few?—who has regularly encouraged and supported the team, and supported Howard's coaching.
February 17th, 2023 at 8:21 PM ^
How long have you been waiting to drop that one?
It’s bad timing. We just gave up 15 offensive boards to Wisconsin. Our effort on the glass sucked. That has nothing to do with pigmentation.
February 18th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
Michigan gives up offensive rebounds to everyone, though. It's a failing of the team and at this point it can't just be effort because they haven't tanked in every game. And while it's true Michigan gave up 14 OR to Wisconsin, they also picked up 8 of their own, which is the third most Wisconsin has given up all year (and second if you don't count OT against Kansas). So maybe it's not purely effort unless we're narrowing it down to just not giving a shit on the defensive glass after giving up a total of 8 ORs combined in the previous 2 games.
Again, I think the bigger issue is this is a young team that was already down one of their better rebounders and seemed to be out of position. They haven't been a good rebounding team all year and some of that is coaching, some of that is effort, and some of that is a team that still doesn't seem to have it all figured out defensively and that puts them in bad spots.
February 18th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
You're right that it's not simply a matter of effort.
Sometimes players are lost on defense, which may be coaching or learning or both. Sometimes faces seem to show a lack of confidence. And sometimes effort feels more . . . effort-ful than effective.
But not all players look like Bufkin, dialed up to 11.
February 18th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
I call attention to it happening against Wisconsin because they're one of the worst OReb teams in the country - 343rd, to be precise. But against us they went all Moses Malone.
Our biggest issue is that a lot of our guys just won't box out. Jett is probably the worst culprit but there are many others.
February 18th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
EHhh but it's kinda true (although your statement also does definitely hold some truth to it ). I don't really see Dickinson or Baker going all that hard. ANd I think one of the underrated and overlooked aspects of Bufkin's game is that he does hustle. He plays really hard and gets on the floor for loose balls or jumps out of bounds to save them. As a team though, I think this team really does not exhibit a lot of mental toughness or hustle. ANd I think that has cost them a lot of games this year.
February 17th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
I'm pretty much of the belief that this game is going to go one way or the other.
MSU is either going to come out gangbusters and want to win for their school, after a rough week. And they do just that and it's not particularly close.
or
Michigan hits some shots, MSU clearly shows they're not mentally there for the game (which would be totally understandable, given the circumstances).
More than anything, I'd love to just see some freakin' pride from this squad. The rebounding stuff against Wisconsin was just pathetic and was flat out, lack of effort.
Hoping for a great game and some escape for many in the state of Michigan tomorrow.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^
I don't blame the defense on effort (though their certainly are times when guys do give up on plays too easily) as much as guys not talking and being out of position. Dug gives a shit. Reed gives a shit. Bufkin gives a shit. Williams (when healthy) gives a shit. Hell, Dickinson seems to have turned it on a bit and gives a shit. But on defense you need everyone to be on the same page and when someone isn't it's a three in your face or a backcut.
The rebounding is a different story and does seem somewhat effort-driven, plus guys being out of position for rebounds because of the aforementioned defensive breakdowns, but I get annoyed when a bunch of fans starting questioning the heart and effort of college athletes who, with few exceptions, are pretty new to high level college athletics and don't seem like they're really phoning it in.
Anyway, I expect UM to lose tomorrow by between 3 and 5 points because that's the tune for 2023.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
I appreciate your optimism and also your realism.
AND giving up as many offensive boards to one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country is either poor coaching or lack of effort. Those are the choices.
I’m certain the players on this team care more about wins and loses than I as a fan do. And I love to see some of the energy. This would could so desperately use a Zak Novak freakout in the timeout moment. It seems so often they’re just going through the motions. I don’t want to call it lack of heart. Maybe lack of motivation?
We all want the same thing, I’m hopeful we see it tomorrow. Go Blue!
February 17th, 2023 at 7:03 PM ^
I think the offensive rebounding issues against Wisconsin was somewhat effort but a lot was just bad positioning and lack of cohesion. Not having Williams, a good defensive rebounder, undoubtedly was part of it. Tschetter, as we saw, lacked some athleticism and got beat from some balls, while Reed did a better job on that end but was limited by lack of minutes (which does seem to be a rotation issue with Howard that was exacerbated by being down a starter). I do have some harsh opinions of certain starters who really don't rebound the way they should given their physical skills and attributes, but it's also not wholly surprising given the current state of the team and that player's age.
The thing is they've been bad at offensive rebounding basically all year, and I'm not sure if it's schematic, personnel, or some combination thereof. But they also held Wisconsin scoreless from the field for 10.5 minutes, something we absolutely didn't see earlier in the year and that is as much about effort and focus as rebounding. So that was an optimistic part of view for me; Michigan actually outscored Wisconsin over that span but started it down 10 so they couldn't quite claw back.
So yeah, they'll probably lose. But I will argue to no end that this team was gawd awful to watch earlier in the year and now they just look snakebitten and seemingly waiting for the shoe to drop. They desperately needed one of these close games to go their way, I think, to have that confidence that shit will work out in the end. It's not unlike how the football team probably needed at 2021 against OSU to know that all the close games earlier in the Harbaugh era weren't a curse.
February 18th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
"this team was gawd awful to watch earlier in the year and now they just look snakebitten"
I think you're right, though maybe if one of those close games went their way, we might perceive the same actions as determination rather than snakebit.
February 18th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
"I expect UM to lose tomorrow by between 3 and 5 points because that's the tune for 2023."
It wouldn't surprise me at all if we lost by double digits.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Going out on a huge limb here with this take but:
After intermittent flashes of offensive coherence and defensive effort we will inevitably find a way to stumblefork our way to a single digit score loss and it'll be - due to on and off court circumstances - the least upset any of us will ever be about losing to MSU at Crisler.
Like, my main rooting interest this game is Hunter not saying anything cringy in the press conference
February 17th, 2023 at 7:03 PM ^
I was thinking this same thing. We don't really have anything to play for.
I hate MSU and their athletics programs with a PASSION, but I have a lot of family and friends that went there and if it helps brighten their week, I won't be nearly as upset about a loss to them as I normally am.
February 18th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
I mostly agree with your thoughts but I believe the team has a lot to play for: they're competitive athletes who presumably are in the sport because they want to compete, and to win.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^
Believe it or not, I don't mean this as a criticism of Juwan -- I'm on board, and I hope he stays and wins multiple Big Ten titles in years to come -- but wow I'm confused by some of what we've seen this year.
Fans simply don't know what's going on behind the scenes. What player is being disciplined, what player had a bad (or a good) week of practice, what player the coach thinks happens to match up better to the opponent, etc. I'm aware. But things like ... not playing Tarris Reed over Tschetter down the stretch are bewildering.
And not even coming down on Tschetter. But he hadn't been in one clutch situation like that all year -- you could see his nerves and those bricked free throws coming a mile away!
Juwan, during a game, has a lot to be thinking about, I get that, but ... couldn't one of his assistant coaches suggest re-inserting Tarris? What's ... what's happening with that coaching staff, that they don't appear to really do anything to adapt to what's happening in the actual game?
Sigh. I'm sure I'm wrong. Trust me, I know it. They undoubtedly have absolutely reasonable explanations for everything. But it's bewildering to me, on my sofa.
February 17th, 2023 at 7:06 PM ^
Eh, this is a tactical criticism that's mostly hindsight, IMO. Will T is a 60+% FT shooter. It was a bit of a fluke he missed both. It's not like Tarris has more experience in those situations, plus he's a 30% FT shooter, which factors into Juwans decisions at the end of games.
What is far more damning from the coaching is the effort level. That's coaching. Coaches need to push the right buttons or hold guys accountable for effort.
February 18th, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
I'm defense of Reed, he has been shooting mid 70's on his FT the last 6 games, so looks like he started to turn the corner.
February 17th, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Also ... it kills me that Michigan keeps losing its highly prized recruits to the NBA without them even dominating in college. Everyone's talking about Jett being a lottery pick, and I hope he does well, but he's hardly a killer on the court. He's good for a freshman, I get it! But ... in the old days to be in the lottery you'd have to ... not have a talentless Wisconsin shut you down in the second half.
He can't create his own shot, he's terrible on defense, and he doesn't rebound. This is another player who's going to be drafted on "potential," and again, Godspeed, but ... watching all of Michigan's "stars" go silent against Indiana, while their star scores bucket after bucket ... is pretty telling.
Where's Glen Rice when you need him?
February 17th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
You're right, but you can just see that Jett has a game that will be very well suited for the NBA.
He's going to be an all star at the next level. I'm not much of a gambler but I'd almost bet money on it.
February 17th, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
I'm not so sure, yet. I don't think he's particularly quick -- he's fine, but nobody would say that's a stand-out skill -- and I'm not sure he'll be able to just ... hang outside and fire up three pointers.
In all honesty, if I were a NBA GM with a first round pick, I'd be really hesitant. I just haven't seen enough. He loves to score -- but everyone loves to score. I don't see the hustle, I don't see the determination, and I don't see the baller. I'm not saying it's there, but ... beyond an occasional determination to score, I don't see much ... enthusiasm for the game.
I could be way wrong. I just think he's someone who could really benefit from an extra year to college to show improvement. Being rewarded for his talent has gotten him where he is now. Now ... where's the focus, effort, and determination?
I would literally take Bufkin over Howard. Howard has more upside, I get that, but in Bufkin I see a really young kid who's shown a willingness to work, to get better. I haven't seen that in Howard yet, and I'm not sure I'd risk a first-round pick without it.
February 17th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
I do think he's going to make it because he's a shot maker and that's a highly coveted skill. And that might get him to some All Star games but unless he changes the way he defends and rebounds and puts in effort, he's not going to be a winner.
He'll be one of those guys that puts up scoring stats on bad teams.
February 18th, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
Not a bad all star crystal ball.
Jett looks alot like Jordon Poole, who this board decided was not ready.
Four years of apprenticeship and he signs a 4 year 130 million contract, and will replace Steph when the time comes.
February 17th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
Where's Glen Rice when you need him?
Hell, at this point I'd settle for Mike Griffin.
February 17th, 2023 at 9:59 PM ^
Where have you gone, Joe Dimaggio?
February 18th, 2023 at 12:38 AM ^
Mike Griffin averaged 3.5 ppg in 24 minutes as a senior. He would be absolutely roasted if he was playing on the team this year.
As a freshman, Glen Rice averaged 7 ppg. The only reason we rightly remember Glen Rice so fondly is that he stuck around and won a championship as a senior. The game is just different nowadays. Senior Glen Rice’s are unicorns.
February 18th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
Mike Griffin was exactly the kind of defender and glue guy this team so desperately needs.
February 18th, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
I feel you. That's today's college bball for you. Funny to think how good Coach Howard had to be after THREE years to get drafted while Jett will be a lottery pick after one decent year. Caleb and Moussa gave us close to nothing last year. DJ Wilson gave us one decent year, GR3, Poole etc. NBA is all about potential and it's negatively impacting the college game.
February 17th, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
I dislike watching this team in a way I have not disliked watching a Michigan team in a long time.
Agreed. Playing way below their potential, it seems.
February 17th, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
“I dislike watching this team in a way I have not disliked watching a Michigan team in a long time.”
Bingo. By now I’m just thinking, “go ahead and lose if you must, but can we do it without a costume, a gimmick t shirt, a podcast, a rebounding mutiny and whatever other horseshit?” Defeat with dignity is a real thing at this point.
February 17th, 2023 at 6:51 PM ^
Yeah, I'm there on Reed as well. Just start him. IF Williams is not available.
On the pod, Craig suggested Reed wasn't starting because of a propensity to foul....uh, what? You're only playing him 10 minutes a game as it is. And he hasn't fouled out yet (only had four fouls three times) so what are you saving him for?
If fouls force him out of the game, fine but don't do what foul trouble might not necessarily force you to do (sit him).
I still think Williams is the best option at the four. He's a good rebounder for the position (17.5% DREB, Tschetter by comparison is an atrocious 6.8% which was a killer against Wisconsin - he's probably not that bad but doesn't seem like an average rebounder), he's mostly switchable on defense and I don't think he's this bad at threes. He was 38% last year. That was probably on the high side but he's also probably not as bad as he's been this year. Just gotta stay with him, IMO.
February 18th, 2023 at 8:19 AM ^
I agree they should play Reed over Tschetter if Williams is out, but he does foul at a really high rate and turns the ball over a lot. I pulled the numbers earlier but he commits a foul about once every 6 minutes and turns the ball over once every 13 minutes. Yeah, he's got limited minutes but also, a bunch of those minutes tend to come against the other team's backups. When pressed into playing against more experienced/better players he struggles just as much. Now, he's a true freshman big so it's totally understandable he's struggling but his inconsistency, especially if Williams isn't available, puts any staff in a bind. If Reed fouls out then you really don't have anyone else to come in at the 4, and beyond that a guy who fouls at that rate is doing so (in part) because he's out of position or not properly defending guys or is a bit of a bull-in-the-china-shop on offense. So you're getting sub-par performance with those fouls, and that sucks.
That said, I agree that all college coaches (Howard included) auto-bench guys too often. Benching a guy because you're worried about him fouling out and him actually fouling out result in the same outcome practically, but at least with the latter you do get those minutes on the court. In a game like this they may just have to ride with Reed getting fouls and hope he can stay on the court for 20 minutes anyway.
February 17th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
Refs are going to bone us for sure.
February 17th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
Very winnable game for M. If we have trouble with effort in a home rivalry game with “a chance” of still making the tourney, then there’s a culture problem. MSU is a really poor shooting team on the road. The only thing not mentioned in the preview is the semi-emergence of Kohler for MSU. He’s not super athletic or tall but has great touch and post up game. Normally I’d say that it isn’t a concern since we have a 7 footer in the middle but our defense is so poor that I believe this could be a factor.
February 18th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
I don't worry too much about "effort" at home but this is going to be a really surreal game for both teams I do wonder if the energy is just off on both sides.
My guess is it's going to be a really gross game. MSU isn't a good team and neither is UM. Honestly, the big difference between UM and MSU is that MSU has a pretty experienced starting 5 while UM has three freshmen in their top 6.
February 18th, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
How are we favored? MSU is always strong on the boards I wouldn't take this bet.
February 18th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
That’s not Vegas. It’s KenPom.
February 18th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
True, although Vegas seems to like Michigan even more (seeing -2 in most places)
February 18th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
Fully agree this Michigan team has been a frustrating watch, and it really does come down in large part to effort. We have athletes on this team that are 100% capable of playing above average D given their athleticism (Jett, Dug) but generally don’t. Maybe youth is part of it, I don’t know. And Dickinson has only gotten worse defensively and overall, and I’m over his antics. I end up saying I love this year’s team most years and will always support our teams, but I have not had much fun watching this year. Bufkin is by far the brightest spot of the team, and the only player I tell my 8 year old son to watch for the right way to do things at both ends.
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