THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#86 Michigan (7-13, 2-7 B10) vs #18 MSU (12-8, 4-5 B10)
WHERE	Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
WHEN	9:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: MSU-11 Torvik: MSU-10
TELEVISION	Peacock (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Around the same time they were buckling my daughter into the Zamboni last Saturday, and on the opposite end of the lot, the Michigan men's basketball team was doing its own kind of buckling, welcoming new football coach Sherrone Moore with a double-digit promise not to be a distraction. The 10-point home loss to Iowa undid a 10-point win at Carver-Hawkeye, easily Michigan's best conference victory in the last two years. Michigan's now lost three in a row, and eight of their nine.

At least the one win in there was a rival, but that's about all their next matchup has in common with uncanny shooting night at home versus Ohio State. In contrast to Michigan and most of the conference, MSU's defense has only been improving over the course of the season. Early losses to James Madison and Nebraska are firmly in the rear view mirror. The Spartans are coming off an 81-66 drubbing in the Trohl Center, but Wisconsin is the other Big Ten team that's managed to rise from the dreck, while Michigan's sinking to the bottom of it.

That's not too big of a surprise, considering MSU managed to bring back almost everyone from a team that made it to overtime of the Sweet Sixteen last year. The freshmen who were supposed to provide a boost haven't really done so, but they've got guards coming out of their ears, a pair of seniors in the frontcourt, the Breslin Benefit of the Doubt, and Tom Izzo taking a second stab at his 700th career win. State's rankings are a bit inflated by blowouts against teams ranked closer to 100 than 25, but that's small solace to an incontrovertibly bad Michigan team that will be traveling without Dug.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tray Jackson returned, but in a very limited role. Coach Howard noted the play of TWIII and Jace Howard at the three spot, not the injury, was the main reason.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Note that MSU's scorer notoriously calls everything an assist, so their real assist rates are actually about 75% of what's reported.

[After THE JUMP: Izzo goes for 700.]

THE THEM

Walker's been on this year. [Campredon]

C Mady Sissoko was a good laugh when he was getting dunked on by ranked-one-spot-lower Hunter Dickinson. But it's still a good rib, since Sissoko hasn't really developed any part of his game except rebounding in the years both have been in college. What he showed up with was an array of post moves and a knack for putbacks. He can also move fairly well—part of the reason he was a top-50 prospect to begin with—and uses his wide build to box out and cover a large swath of the lane. Effort is always the story here; Sissoko rarely plays more than 20 minutes, and when he's in he's either dominating the boards or a complete ghost.

PF Malik Hall is another guy who's been around forever—this is his fifth year as a major contributor—because it takes that long for him to become something more than he was when he arrived. Last year he was actually getting to the rim, whereas Hall has become the team's designated 10-footer guy. But the turnover rate has come down despite an uptick this year in usage, and he's drawing a lot more fouls than ever before, so the change in approach is working, even if analytics mourns the loss of a consistent Not-Just-a-Shooter. He'll always be a 33% guy outside, but can get those up when he's got a smaller guy on him, and is good at backing down smaller fours and a hazard on the offensive glass. It'll be interesting to see if Hall want to drive on Nkamhoua.

SF Jaden Akins is the first of three once-projected points starting for this team. In the case of Akins that was because teams wanted to develop his long and athletic body into a defensive star. The defense got him on the court, but Akins can get to the rim and make his threes at a dangerous enough clip that he's not a hole offensively by any means. Even playing the three, his length makes Akins functionally able to handle 6'7" wings without an issue, and take over for Hoggard when the point is the problem. To some local coaches Akins is the poster boy for how guys who play for Izzo don't meet their potential then get gaslit into sticking around as the NBA loses interest, unless Hall and Sissoko are. Fair or not, the rival's sour grapes don't change the fact that MSU is getting great value out of Akins as a role player.

SG Tyson Walker transferred from Northeastern a few years ago to be the point guard and instead became their best shooter. His 47% in 2021-'22 won't be repeated, but Walker's been getting more uncontested looks this year as he's honed his finishing ability. Whether or not he's scoring at the rim seems to be the biggest difference between games when MSU tears apart a bad defense and those where State's struggling to score against a good one (guess which we are?). Walker's also an excellent perimeter defender, often taking the other team's point guard and leading transition breaks the other way. MSU's offense operates through him as much as Hoggard, despite the 10-point discrepancy in assist rates.

PG AJ Hoggard is still an X-level shooter outside, and not that great of a finisher. But he's the perfect MSU point guard, as willing to run somebody over as Big Ten refs are willing to reward him with the foul for it. Outside of the dominant centers, there can't be a guy in the history of this conference who picks up more cheap whistles, or knocks down more of the resulting free throws, an absolutely infuriating combination (ask an Iowa fan about it sometime). Despite the assist inflation, Hoggard remains excellent at working the offensive system. He's also a large body who can stand up to threes or cover point guards, though they're probably hiding him on Nimari.

The Bench:

• PG Tre Holloman was a top-100 PG prospect last year who amazingly hasn't been completely converted to a wing yet. He comes in to stretch the floor since he will invariably bury his open threes, and opponents who practiced all week against Hoggard are leaving them uncovered. Holloman doesn't get to the rim much, but he's an active defender, and has shown the ability to blow buy a guy and finish in the past. Now that Holloman's accepting of his role of not doing that, Izzo will use him to spell spots 1-3.
• C Carson Cooper is the defensive center they go to as soon as Sissoko's effort lets up. The former walk-on was scooped up from the IMG B team because MSU needed live bodies. But Cooper has actually developed into an excellent rounder for his limited athleticism, and even has some moves down low (we saw the cross-under in East Lansing last year).
• Fellow C Jaxon Kohler was last year's developmental freshman. He's been getting more time lately and paying them off with a high block rate and some ugly baskets in the paint. Kohler made the top-60 out of high school by playing for a big California academy and making a lot of Tschetter-like shots down low, but he's on Tschetter's level defensively and doesn't take threes.
• W Coen Carr is the only one of the three heralded freshmen getting anything like regular time, and has taken on a Just-a-Shooter role at that. They want him to be a big guard, but on this team he's a spell for Akins or Hall because there aren't any others.
• Five-star (#11 overall) C Xavier Booker will get in for a few minutes a game, do something that pisses Izzo off, then return to the bench. He was supposed to be a JJJ 2.0, but the NBA can't take him if he can't play in the Big Ten, can they?

THE TEMPO FREE

That doesn't look very Izzo, nor like a team playing three PG-like types, but their issues at center are causing some weird bending towards the arc for opposing defenses. The result has been a lot more long two's than just about any other team in college right now. State's getting 56% of their points from two this year, and only 17% from the free throw line even with Hoggard collecting well more than his fair share. They're also playing fast, which is their best way of attacking the rim without a major scoring threat around it. As with all Izzo teams since I was a teenager, they are tenacious rebounders, fundamentally sound, and well scripted.

THE KEYS

There's always one weird guy who goes off on MSU. My money's on Tarris. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Punk 'em at the five. Is Mady feeling the rivalry or feeling like this should be a walk in the park as Road Tarris gets all sweaty and gross? Can Michigan get enough clean post entries for it to matter?

Run 'em off the line and away from the rim. This is both doable and what everyone's doing: MSU is hitting 38% on 2PJs, which represent 44% of the shots they've taken.

Don't get Breslin'd. Reality bends to the Spartans' will, especially when Izzo makes faces at it.

Let's aim for ZERO Adolf Hitlers on the scoreboard. This is the bar.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

State by eleven.