THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#44 Michigan (9-5) at #43 MSU (10-4)	The roidy hoplite was appropriate for his time, but Tommy the Tee'd-Up Elf is the mascot for modern MSU.
WHERE	Breslin Center Presented By the Michigan Law Grad East Lansing, MI
WHEN	2:30 PM Saturday
THE LINE	Kenpom: MSU-4 Torvik: MSU-4
TELEVISION	Fox

THE OVERVIEW

Hey look at that, Michigan can actually beat some 8-seed caliber Big Ten teams! Even their best nonconference win is starting to look pretty okay after Pitt dispatched UNC and Virginia in their last two games (sad version of these events: Hey, we coulda done that!), and is 10-1 over their last 11 games. For their part, Michigan's 2-0 run over suspect Maryland and Penn State outfits has been keyed by a major size advantage inside, a major turnaround in attention to rebounding and defense, and a perceptible, though far from complete, progression in Dug McDaniel's game. Michigan's tour-de-middling now goes on the road, starting with the place where reality bends around the particular point of view of the most annoying people on the planet.

In other things that you knew were possible but were starting to wonder about, Tom Izzo can coach a basketball team. One of several programs that were in a position to hit the ground running on NIL, MSU has a commitment from the nation's top center, and three more four-stars in the nation's #3 class. But the cavalry doesn't arrive until next fall, so the ageless escapee from Santa's workshop is back to cobbling together a Tournament team from top-60 types with infinite eligibility while hoping that tryhardism (and not a little bit of yelling) can replace size/and-or athleticism on defense.

Izzo's antics aside, MSU is much like last year's MSU, except this time without the option of playing better-than-Sissoko Marcus Bingham at center, and a much better excuse if the senior winger doesn't play up to his potential. Each team has a comfortable-ish win over Penn State (MSU's was on the road) and played Kentucky even, with State winning in double-overtime in a game the Cats shot 7/25 from three, and Michigan losing by four when UK shot 9/15 from range. MSU has so many guards, eager minds have enquired whether they might spare an extra for the season; Michigan has a onetime All-American center who's feasted on a trio of shorter Big Ten bigs. The spread is the venue.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

We're predicting that Malik Hall is fully back this weekend. He had a stress injury in his foot on November 18th and missed the next eight games, then came off the bench for 12 and 19 minutes against Buffalo and Nebraska. State played small without him, starting all three guards and bringing another, freshman Trey Holman, off the bench.

The chart also comes with a warning not to take assist rates at face value. There has been a longstanding battle between the rest of the league and Michigan State scorers over whether setting up the guy who scored (the rest of the basketball world) or passing the ball to the guy who scored (MSU) constitutes an assist. Via Torvik, in the last four seasons MSU has been ranked 1st, 5th, 12th, and 7th in assist rate in home games, and 19th (Cassius Winston), 135th, 60th, and 71st in assist rate in road and neutral games. Somehow this fact has not penetrated the minds of most announcers.

[After THE JUMP: Brian made me write content as punishment making him write about the NCAA.]

THE THEM

There isn't a headliner on this team, but if he's anything close to full strength again, the most efficient complementary player is senior winger Malik Hall. Over the years Hall has developed into the archetype of an analytics-friendly Not-Just-a-Shooter. His slash line came down from a scorching start but still finished 55/43 because threes go up when they're open, drives get to the rim when he sees a lane, and he's an excellent finisher when a PG sets him up. Hall has always been a hazard on the offensive glass as well, and proficient at backing down smaller fours, though I don't know if the foot injury hurts that (Izzo will say it did either way). Jett Howard still got back-doored a few times by Penn State, so one way this trip to Breslin could go sour is Jett losing track of Hall.

Another is if the Breslin Effect puts Kobe Bufkin and Hunter Dickinson in foul trouble because PG AJ Hoggard is barreling into them. Hoggard's usage isn't as high as it looks—see the above re: the assist rates. Normalizing that, his assist/turnover ratio is more like 3-2, but with flair: some of those setups are cross-court dimes, while others are liable to skip off the side of an aircraft carrier.

Drop coverage whenever Hoggard has the ball is still the play. In three years as State's on-again/let's-replace-again point guard, Hoggard's been a brutally inefficient scorer. This isn't just in the half-court; via Synergy, Hoggard's at 0.625 PPP in 32 *transition*(!!!) opportunities this year. I can modify that graphic I use on the lineup cards to show you what Hoggard's shooting looks like over the course of a normal game, and how things have changed as he's matured.

AJ HOGGARD SCORING/SHOOTING
FRESHMAN (0.73 PPP)	SOPHOMORE (0.96 PPP)	JUNIOR (0.99 PPP)

The three-point bars are points/shot equivalent, not % of shots made. Hoggard's three-point shooting is up(!) to 26% this season and he's developed a floater. That extra 13/24 on runners has raised his efficiency away from the rim from 0.54 PPP to an almost respectable 0.82. He's also taken enough free throws this year to start believing the vast improvement from the charity stripe isn't a fluke. That's a big deal because he's excellent at drawing contact, or at least the appearance of it (ask a Penn State fan how their game ended).

Their other Point Guard-like substance is former Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker. Walker is PG-sized (he'll draw Dug in this game) and is used to initiating an offense. He is a pull-up threat from anywhere, but also doesn't necessarily consider where he's pulling up from, so his efficiency gets dragged down by taking long-twos. Walker's another guy who shot well above his career mark—47% from three last year despite pretty normal guarded/unguarded splits—but even with that returning to his career average it's important to stay in his face. Like Hoggard, Walker gets credit for a lot of assists and still actually creates plenty of them. Between his just-shoot mentality and more Eli Brooks-like role in the offense, Walker's previous turnover issues have evaporated this year. He doesn't get to the rim or the line

The guy the fancystats like the hardest is forever-ago Marquette transfer Joey Hauser, a finesse stretch four who's become a better player the further Izzo's given up on the notion that Hauser's a forward. Being forward height means Hauser is able to put his shot up whenever he likes. And he likes. A lot of the absurd assist numbers above come from dishing to Hauser, who then either puts it up or drives right and puts it up. That shot is more like a bow being drawn than a firearm, but the release point is high, so the earlier the closeout the better. Hauser doesn't dunk, but he does rebound on his own end, and his layups off assists at the rim are as effective as Hall's. He's also an 86% free throw shooter these days so not treating him like a big is important for opponents as well. The thing about Hauser is his defense, which like the rest of his game has improved this year, except here he was starting from "yeeeesh!". Despite the height, he's stiff, and not going to get much height. This is why Izzo might have a point if Hall's foot isn't up to covering Jett Howard, because Hauser's liable to get whipped by him. T-Will has shown some bully ball lately, and that might be an option this game. Izzo can't resist trying Hauser at the five to space out his shooters, but that's historically been an invitation for thunderdunks on the other end.

Finally we get to little big man Mady Sissoko. On the one hand, it's still funny to point out that Sissoko was ranked one spot higher than Hunter Dickinson among 2020 centers. On the other hand, some of the reasons Sissoko was a top-50 prospect three years ago do show up on the basketball court. When he does elevate his play, Sissoko has some post moves and a knack for putbacks—his 22 points on 10.5 shot equivalents had MSU leading Gonzaga for most of the aircraft carrier game, and was the difference in avoiding an upset at Portland the day after Michigan beat Ohio State 45-22 in football. Sissoko isn't fully switchable but can move better than your average big, and uses his wide shoulders and long arms to good effect on the boards. Once an atrocious free throw shooter, Sissoko's got that up to an acceptable 67%. His foul rate has gone way down from last year's insane 9.8/40 minutes, but is still so high that he maxes out at 24 minutes. He has yet to attempt a three in his career.

The Bench:

For most of the time that Hall was out so was G Jaden Akins, but once healthy Akins drew into the lineup as a third PG-like starter. Recruitniks will remember Akins from the Emoni Bates saga as the frustrated Ypsi Prep teammate committed to MSU at the same time when everyone outside of East Lansing seemed to understand there was no way they were playing together. They may also recall this site banging the table for Michigan to use that to recruit Akins. A long and strong defensive winger, Akins's development at State has been achingly slow. In his first long stint as a starter he was a Not-Just-a-Shooter who should have been, canning 43% of his triples, and 36% of this twos.

Wing Pierre Brooks was the other beneficiary of playing time with Hall out, but starting didn't help his game—97, 75, and 77 offensive ratings in MSU's losses to Alabama, Notre Dame and Northwestern were the catalyst for benching Brooks and starting Akins since the latter's been available. Brooks is a fine Just-a-Shooter, but his 36/41 slash line is a fair representation of what happens when he ventures inside.

Center Jaxon Kohler is a true freshman and no bigger than fellow Utah product Sissoko. At this stage Kohler is a terrible finisher, and his high block rate was entire accomplished against the nonconference dregs. He was ranked in the top-60 in the composite, but as a power forward with a high floor. That recruiting profile also says he can step out, but Kohler's only tried that once this season.

True freshman PG Tre Holloman is the only other regular. He looks to get in the lane and has been pretty decent at that against lower competition.

That's all I can fit on the chart but I do want to mention walk-on freshman C Carson Cooper, who is just a 6'11"/230 body at this stage. Cooper was an unranked recruit playing on the IMG B team but MSU needed bodies and Cooper was from Jackson, MI, and an Ypsi Prep kid before that.

THE TEMPO FREE

As with Izzo teams going back to forever, Michigan State doesn't generate a lot of turnovers and rebounds well. Their success on the offensive glass is opportunistic more than strategic, but you can't have watched this Michigan team without being a little concerned about wingers flying in to turn a bad possession into a free one. They're also the least free throw-dependent MSU team since Matt Costello, for the obvious reason.

Despite plenty of shooting, State has a lot of guys who will cut to the basket when given the choice. The big difference this season is they're turning it over far less after last year's bloop fest. That's come with a greater emphasis on slowing it down and pulling up on transition opportunities.

THE KEYS

Too-small gestures. Good Hunter (Bad Hunter?) against Sissoko is a big deal. State couldn't deal with him last year in the return game with a combination of Sissoko and Julius Marble, but in the Breslin game Dickinson kept settling for elbows against Bingham.

Let Hoggard shoot. That usage bubble isn't just from the insane Breslin scorer. Putting him on the line is bad. Letting him get it to an open teammate: also bad. Hoggard shots aren't quite Foster Loyer shots, but we're in that realm.

Run them off the arc. Walker, Hall, Hauser, Akins and Brooks are all liable to pull up the second they get inside it anyway.

Jett be good. The intensity uptick lately has been noticed and appreciated by the Crisler denizens. Doing that against Hall and Hauser with Tee'd-Up Tom and the Birds hollering at you is a steep uptick in concentration difficulty.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 4.