Brian's post-MSU game column hit the nail on the head.

Livers was not replaceable. Not that we thought he was, but two of the above three bullet points were impacted by Livers's absence. Obviously missing your 50% three point shooter is an issue. [Brandon] Johns had a decent game, all things considered, but after he missed an early three he started turning down open shots. Michigan turned those into much worse shots.

As Brian mentioned, having Zavier Simpson at point guard comes with some limitations. The one most exposed at Breslin is that, when your point guard isn't an outside shooting threat, you need everyone else in your lineup to be a relatively confident and competent three-point shooter. Johns didn't have the confidence on Sunday and it played a big part in wrecking Michigan's spacing.

While this play ends in a made basket, it was an early turning point. Johns gets a pass in the corner while his defender, Xavier Tillman, still has a foot in the paint. This should be an automatic shot. Instead, Johns passes it out, and Michigan is forced to end the possession with a Jon Teske post-up—he has to turn away from a double-team that doesn't even include Tillman lurking in the lane to hit a tough baseline hook:

That's a nice finish by Teske. The expected value on that shot, however, is significantly lower than Johns attempting a wide open corner three. Tillman got the message that he didn't need to respect Johns on the perimeter. That'd have major ramifications for the rest of the game.

[Hit THE JUMP for an example of those ramifications.]

The difference between Johns and Isaiah Livers leapt out later in the first half. To start, I'm not sure why he's hanging out mid-play in the midrange area and not either beyond the three-point line or down low in the dunker spot. Michigan is setting up a two-man game with Franz Wagner and Teske on the near side of the court. Johns isn't threatening anything and his initial positioning lets Tillman set up in the lane:

Tillman is standing just below the 'G' in the B1G logo.

MSU's Marcus Bingham stays home on Teske, so Wagner looks to drive to the hoop. Johns recognizes this and begins to drift out to the three-point line. Tillman, however, sees no reason to follow him there, instead sinking lower in the paint:

Johns poses little threat because, instead of having his feet set behind the arc, he's backpedaling into position; even if Wagner decides to kick it out to him, Tillman is going to have some time to recover while Johns gets set up to shoot. Wagner chooses to attack before Johns gets set, which is understandable—the game moves too fast to wait. The problem is he now has two defenders ready to contest his shot:

The problems here are now two-fold. Wagner gets stuffed at the rim on his initial attempt because he's trying to go through two players, one of whom is an athletic big man. Then, even though he gets a second chance and his initial defender is out of the play, Wagner is stuffed again because Tillman is still there. Wagner's initial defender is then free to grab the defensive rebound without resistance. In motion:

Johns eventually made a three-pointer on his fourth attempt of the game, though it came after a couple hesitant outside shots that didn't change the way MSU played him. This positioning and decisiveness is what Michigan desperately needs out of Johns while Livers is out of the lineup:

Don't get me wrong: I'm encouraged by Johns's development this season. He had some really promising moments in this game, particularly when going to work down low, and his offensive rebounding can be a legitimate game-changer.

The Livers injury is forcing some players outside of their comfort zone, however, and if he's out an extended period of time, a lot is going to ride on Johns's confidence in his shot. This look at on/off numbers with guarantee games removed is alarming, even when you account for considerable three-point noise:

via Hoop Lens

Michigan doesn't have enough shooting right now if Johns is going to be hesitant. While his rebounding impact is considerable on the offensive end, he's not a great defensive rebounder, nor is he on Livers's level as an on- or off-ball defender. I wouldn't get too scared off by the defensive numbers, even the ugly two-point figure, since much of this is from the MSU game—I'm not gonna fault Johns much for what Cassius Winston did to M's defense.

The offense, though, is harder to ignore. The team turnover rate goes up and their two-point shooting falls by nearly five full percentage points, which I have to believe is a product of poor spacing. While the three-point dropoff is so massive as to be unsustainable, there's no question M's shooting is going to be worse without Livers drilling half his triples. Johns doesn't have to do that to keep this offense afloat; he does have to force defenses to show at least a little respect for his shot, though.