when you nearly had two five-stars and ended up with zero [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hoops Mailbag: Howard's Recruiting Approach, 2020-21 Outlook, Bajema Comps Comment Count

Ace April 28th, 2020 at 12:43 PM

Let's tip this off with a timely query:

To a certain extent, yes. While I expect Michigan will fare better with five-star prospects now that Juwan Howard isn't picking up recruiting a class in the middle of a cycle—five-star recruitments tend to be years-long processes—there'll always be the occasional cruel twist. Those will be frustrating to various degrees; the Josh Christopher pivot to ASU felt like more of a gut punch than Isaiah Todd's decision to take the G League route in part because the staff seemed to have planned for Christopher to be on the roster and start at a position of need.

The good news: Howard did a remarkable job to be so close with those recruitments in the first place, caught a bad break when the NBA opened up a new professional route when it otherwise appeared Todd's best option was college, and will be able to pitch immediate and ample playing time to elite 2021 guards. He also still managed to pull in the Big Ten's best 2020 recruiting class despite the late drama.

People are going to complain about recruiting no matter what. Beilein's on-court success didn't stop the recruiting complaints—some of them legitimate, even!—during his time at Michigan. As long as Howard is bringing in solid multi-year program guys like he did with Hunter Dickinson, Terrance Williams, and Zeb Jackson, he can afford to shoot for the stars, and I suspect we'll see more success with this approach down the road.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

This could be a whole post unto itself, so I'll try to run it down quickly.

Guards. Compared to Beilein, Howard appears to want more size and athleticism out of his backcourt, even if that means sacrificing some shooting. There's more of an emphasis on finding downhill attackers. Overall, though, both coaches want high-level shot creators; they look to create those shots in slightly different ways, though pick-and-roll ballhandling is high on the list of requirements for both.

Wings. Howard is going more for NBA athleticism here than Beilein, who placed more emphasis on refined offensive skill. He's also looking at prospects who are more physically developed (five-star Todd excepted) than the players Beilein would bring in.

Bigs. There's a greater emphasis on rim protection. Howard will take someone who's athletically limited if they're, say, 7'2" and make it difficult to even see the basket. We may also see more versatility in the type of big men Howard puts out there; it's unfortunate that we don't get to see how he planned to utilize Todd.

Eli Brooks is going to have to play both guard spots again. [Campredon]

While answering "both" feels like a cop-out, it's also the most likely scenario. Among true guards, Michigan has essentially swapped out Zavier Simpson and David DeJulius for Mike Smith and Zeb Jackson. In last year's three-man rotation, Eli Brooks played both spots.

Smith and DDJ are similar players in their ability to play both on and off the ball, though Smith has much more experience running the point and should do more of that than DDJ last year. Jackson is also capable of playing either spot, though his ability to contribute in year one may be limited.

That leaves a lot of minutes to fill at both guard spots. Brooks is going to be needed at both spots unless there's a major breakout from Cole Bajema or something we can't predict right now like a late transfer addition. He'll probably run the point more than he did last year because Smith's off-ball shooting far surpasses Simpson's but Smith may be the more dangerous pick-and-roll ballhandler.

Speaking of which...

skinny Duncan or JAS™ Caris [Campredon]

Bajema is a shot at another Caris LeVert, with the caveat that LeVert, injuries aside, turned out about as well as you could imagine for a lanky, rail-thin three-star wing with developing offensive skill and a lack of elite athleticism. (LeVert may have made the NBA but even in college his drives to the basket relied on snaking past defenders, not blowing by them.)

I don't see Bajema having the shot creation ability of LeVert; he's more of a cross between LeVert and Duncan Robinson, where his primary threat is going to be as a spot-up shooter and he'll have to work hard to overcome his defensive limitations. I see his ceiling being somewhere around Robinson's—a program guy who develops into a dangerous offensive role player and keeps adding little pieces to his game as time goes on.

/cuts the brake lines [Campredon]

Here goes nothing.

Game one starters: PG Mike Smith, SG Eli Brooks, SF Franz Wagner, PF Isaiah Livers, C Austin Davis
End of season starters: PG Mike Smith, SG Eli Brooks, SF Franz Wagner, PF Isaiah Livers, C Hunter Dickinson

Brandon Johns is a huge wild card. I could see him starting at power forward and pushing Livers/Wagner/Brooks down a position while moving Smith to the bench, which could be the ideal scenario for the team. The team's best five may instead have Johns at center if the Davis/Dickinson duo proves too limited. If Livers departs, it becomes a whole lot easier to project—Johns is the starting four at that point. Either way, he should play a lot even if he doesn't start.

I'd say the reasonable best-case scenario with this team is a Wagner-driven push into the top four of the Big Ten with something like a 12-8 conference record which the team parlays into a four- or five-seed in the NCAA tournament and a run to the second weekend.

Beilein's best spot is at a college program that doesn't expect to compete for one-and-done talent. He's a coach who very much looks for a certain type of character in his players and I'm not sure he'd mesh well with a team of elite prospects—he'd do better as a developmental assistant in that program than the man in charge and I doubt that's something he'd want to do at this stage in his career.

I have nothing to add. This is perfect.

I truly, truly, hate to admit it, but Michigan, under Jim Harbaugh, is still one of the premier programs in the country. I know, I know, I’m one of the worst offenders on the sub, but it’s just so much dang fun to make fun of Michigan. And man, the excuse that you’re losing to Ohio State every year because you’re the only team they get up to play sure is, uh, something to take pride in. But really, the Jim Harbaugh era has been defined by three things: (1) losing to Ohio State; (2) playing Michigan State and Penn State pretty even; and (3) taking out their frustration over (1) by stomping the everloving shit out of pretty much everyone else. Michigan, you’re Kicking Pigeons, by Spunge.

”Do you ever have that feeling that you want to punch the ceiling, so you stomp down on the floor, you can't take it anymore. In your search for absolution there is only one solution: kick a pigeon in the park.”

[kicks pigeon]

Comments

Teeba

April 28th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^

12-8 is your reasonable best case scenario? I’d say that’s the best reasonable scenario, but best case, Livers and Wagner make the leap, Smith provides more than Jaaron Simmons did, and this team goes 15-5. We probably were headed for 13-7 with a healthy Livers this year. 
I love Teske, but he just wasn’t the same guy this season. Z was incredible, but his shooting put a ceiling on the team. I will be interested to see if Brooks emerges from Z’s shadow and takes on more of the alpha role. The biggest thing lacking from his game was consistency. If he welcomes the challenge of being the man (think of a poor man’s Derrick Walton during his take-no-prisoners tournament run) 15-5 is within reach, best case.

AC1997

April 28th, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^

Wow....you are indeed talking BEST case scenario with thinking of Brooks breaking out like that.  I like Brooks and he's going to be a critical piece to whatever they can do next year....but he's played a TON of minutes at this point in his career and it seems highly unlikely that there's an alpha-gear he can shift to in the future.  

AC1997

April 28th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^

I applaud you and want to play along.  In that case:

  1. Mike Smith's playmaking translates and he runs the ball screen and iso game well enough to give us an alpha besides Wagner.  Zeb is a functional backup for a few minutes
  2. Eli plays most of the minutes and improves over last year while being our #1 defender.  Bajema emerges as a viable 2 and hits 40% of his threes in a limited role
  3. Wagner makes the Stauskas-leap and becomes a lottery pick
  4. Livers returns and is healthy - continuing his excellent role player role while hitting 40% of his threes
  5. Dickenson is a liability on D, but not as bad as we think and can hack it for 15-20 minutes while Davis does his thing.
  6. Johns plays the 4-5 and makes a mini-leap

The B10 has no dominant teams and Michigan battles MSU, WI, and Iowa for the top four spots down to the wire.

Quailman

April 28th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^

https://247sports.com/Article/Wake-Forest-basketball-coaching-search-John-Beilein-not-candidate-Danny-Manning-146544314/

"The next head men's basketball coach at Wake Forest will not be John BeileinSources told 247Sports director of basketball recruiting Evan Daniels Monday that the Demon Deacons started conducting Zoom video interviews with potential candidates Sunday, and at least five candidates are currently in consideration.

The 67-year-old Beilein, however, is not one."

rice4114

April 28th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^

I think with so many minutes going to Davis and Smith and possibly Bajema we could see a 180 from our team. Take what Simpson and Teske were to offense and apply that to this teams defense. I remember watching a game where Davis gave up 7 baskets in a row. With a possible 4 gunners on our team this could be a throwback to the late 80s teams.

AC1997

April 28th, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^

Next year is going to be eye-opening on both ends of the court.  We lost two seniors that had played a ton and played well on both ends - despite some offensive limitations.  For all the hand-wringing over Simpson's shot or Teske's post moves they were both highly productive college players who are mostly being replaced by true freshmen.  

Things that worry me:

  • Post defense
  • Defense overall...frankly
  • Can we hit threes?  Haven't in 2+ years.
  • Can we effectively run ball screens with all the new faces?
  • Who can get their own shot on this team when we need it?
  • What happens if we have more injury problems next season?
  • What does life on both ends of the court look like without 60+ minutes of Simpson/Teske?

Things I'm excited to see:

  • Year two of Franz Wagner where he's going to be the focal point and hopefully not coming off a broken wrist and bad flu.
  • Year two of Juwan Howard's system.
  • Whether Hunter Dickenson can translate his offensive potential as a freshman
  • If Cole Bajema can emerge from the depths of the bench to contribute at the 2/3.
  • Does Mike Smith's do-everything talent translate at this level and help fill the void left by DDJ and JC at the guard spots?

If Livers comes back I think we're a "right side of the bubble" team that would require a major jump from Franz in order to contend for any banners.  If Livers leaves....we're probably a bubble team.  If we sign a transfer after May 20th who can play guard effectively?  Who knows...

StephenRKass

April 28th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^

That ska song and Michigan, and the writer's analysis, is pretty good. The one thing you could change is that for the last few years, and going forward, we're especially taking our frustration out by stomping the crap out of MSU.

But as the NFL draft showed, there is Bama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, maybe Georgia, and everyone else. Michigan is everyone else. Sometimes very good, but not elite. I think it is possible to break into being playoff team caliber, but it is going to take a little luck and a couple superstars to haul the team forward. Maybe a QB and WR, maybe a WR, maybe a DT or DE or CB.

Since many of you are watching the Last Dance, the analogy is the Bulls drafting MJ. No-one knew just how good he would be. He pulled a team that had NEVER won to the top. If Harbaugh and Warinner and Brown unearth a few ubermensch players, well, things could change. Short of that, our ceiling is maybe 6 - 7 and our typical range is 10 - 15. Oh, and we'll never beat OSU. 

Teeba

April 28th, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^

With home field advantage factored in, I’d like to think we could get to 50% against the buckeyes at home while conceding they win 99% of the time in Columbus. But we can’t even do that well lately.

Iowa and Purdue have shown that the way to beat OSU is get the bucks away from home mid-season when they’ve lost focus for whatever reason. Unfortunately, that’s never going to happen when they play us.

MadMatt

April 28th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

I think all of you are underestimating our chances to upset (and that is the right word given the talent differences) Ohio State.  Brady Hoke's second worst team was a 2 pt conversion away, while playing a QB with a broken foot.  Jim Harbaugh's worst team needed either a completed interception or replacement level QB play.  Jim Harbaugh's best team needed only semi-competent officiating (but we'll speak no more of 2016).

This site replayed the Biakabatuka game against OSU last week.  It demonstrated conclusively that karma does infrequently allow Michigan coaches to outcoach OSU.  (The Bucks expected Michigan to continue its power blocking scheme from earlier in the season; we switched to zone blocking, and rushed for 300+ yards.)

What I'm saying is that in addition to being one of the best teams in the country who consistently plays their best football against us, OSU has also been incredibly lucky the law of averages hasn't handed them one decisively bad break in the past 15 games or so.  Yeah, their offense ran our highly regarded defense off the field two games in a row.  That was the OSU offensive coaches decisively outscheming our defensive coaches. But, TWO OF THE SAME GUYS who got clocked in 2018 were coaching for the bad guys in 2019.  Did they suddenly gain 20 IQ points by changing laundry?

I chose to believe we are not figments of the imagination of some 14 year old in Columbus playing a vintage game of NCAA Football, and that our time is coming.

the Bray

April 28th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^

Is Juwan really a "shoot your shot" guy in terms of recruiting?

He kept Franz and Zeb.

Went out and got Dickinson and Williams.

Had Todd and very possibly Christopher for a hot second. 

It's not like he was out chasing Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, guys he had no chance at.

AC1997

April 28th, 2020 at 2:30 PM ^

My take - early indications are that he's doing a good job of targeting a variety of top-100 (not just top-25) guys to build his roster.  I'm not too worried about who he's getting.  Heck, we saw under Beilein that his recruiting evolved over time too.  Taking Simpson, Matthews, or Teske were not classic Beilein guys and all worked out.  He also chased the occasional 5-star.  

What I want to see out of Juwan is that he addresses the depth of his recruiting targets to make sure he has back-up plans in place (Levert, Spike, Rahk, Duncan, Davis, etc.) if we need them and I want to see if he's able to build a well-rounded roster.  While basketball is headed toward positionless, you still need guys who can handle the ball, hit open jump shots, and defend their opponent.  I'd love for everyone to be a 6'6" athletic guy who can handle and shoot....but those are hard to find.

jmblue

April 28th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^

I'm going to nitpick and say our football team done more than play MSU even (we're one crazy fluke from being 4-1).  Wisconsin would have made more sense in the quote.  But yeah.

TrueBlue2003

April 28th, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^

Yeah, I was going to say, Michigan has been better than even with MSU and PSU.  While he's "only" 3-2 against both programs, he's a crazy fluke and a John O'korn game in the rain away from being 5-0 against MSU.  Not to mention crushing them the past two years.  That's a very one sided rivalry right now and for the foreseeable future.

They've crushed PSU in both their home games, beat them once on the road and were a dropped TD catch and overtime coin flip away from being 4-1 in that series.

 

matty blue

April 29th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^

yeah, he's not a great match...i was just thinking of them as old-timey, capital-c College Coaches whose approach might not work everywhere.  hard to imagine paul johnson at usc, or beilein at kentucky or memphis.  beilein could not be different from johnson in that he was adaptable on an in-game basis.  it is, in my opinion, one of his greatest strengths.

Tacopants

April 28th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^

Beilein's best spot is at a college program that doesn't expect to compete for one-and-done talent.

Ah yes, like 2008-2019 Michigan?

 

I wish him well, and hope that he doesn't land anywhere in the B1G. I'd be kind of interested to see what he could do in the Pac-12 under the radar but i'm not sure there are any good openings.

mgoblue78

April 28th, 2020 at 8:45 PM ^

It is, and has always been, Michigan basketball's fate to be the second choice of top recruits, dating back to Lew Alcindor  and passing through dozens of players. Juwan will succeed nonetheless, as have M bball coaches before him.

TrueBlue2003

April 28th, 2020 at 11:50 PM ^

I think Johns is going to start and finish the season as the starting 5.  Michigan's best five players next year will be Smith, Brooks, Wagner, Livers and Johns and the 6th man won't even be close unless Bajema makes a big leap or Smith just can't cut it.

You can't have a starter than is unplayable for more than 8-10 min a game (Davis).  Small chance Dickinson makes a push by the end of the season but I think a successful freshman year for him will be to take over the backup center minutes from Davis.

In the event Smith can't cut it, yeah, they'll bump Brooks, Wagner, Livers and Johns down to make room for Davis/Dickinson but that'll be a pretty rough ride on defense.