4-star guard Dug McDaniel gave Michigan its first pledge for the 2022 cycle when he verbally committed during his official visit last week. Dug's longstanding relationship with Juwan Howard and the familiarity with DMV players on the current roster in Hunter Dickinson and Terrance Williams played a key role in landing the speedy PG:

Paul VI @PVIHoops guard Dug McDaniel @AyooFlyy on his commitment to @umichbball last night. pic.twitter.com/JbV5bWzZlz

— Capitol Hoops (@CapitolHoops) June 19, 2021

GURU RANKINGS

Rivals	ESPN	247	Endless Motor
4*, #75 overall, #19 PG	4* #24 PG, #2 DC	4*, #52 overall, #9 PG, #1 VA	4*, #70-90 overall

 

247 is the most bullish on McDaniel, with placement near the top 50. Rivals, ESPN and Endless Motor aren't quite as high, slotting him in the 70-100 range (for 2022 ESPN has only issued a top 60, his numeric grade of 84 aligns with placement in the 70-100 range.)

Rivals lists Dug at 5'10, while 247 and ESPN go with 5'9. Having just seen Dug up close and personal for a lengthy talk, McDaniel is absolutely 5'7 - 5'8 without shoes and 5'8 - 5'9 with shoes. The weight distinction is trivial, as he's hovering around 150 and will undoubtedly need to add some muscle mass. 

[After THE JUMP: scouting, highlights]

SCOUTING

I've seen Dug twice this spring for extensive evaluations. Once during April on the AAU scene with Team Takeover and again last weekend in a HS setting with Paul VI Catholic. Having seen him in multiple settings and times over the last two months, I have a good feel for his game.

First and foremost, McDaniel is a playmaker for others. He excels creating easy looks for teammates in ballscreen action. Whether he's facing a blitzing defense or drop coverage, he generally sees the floor well and makes good decisions with his passes depending on how the defense reacts. When the defender guarding the corner shooter rotates over to tag Dug's roll-man, he consistently finds that corner shooter with skip passes that result in open 3s or places teammates in situations where they can attack a closeout. He can shift the defense with his eyes by looking one way before passing another. I really like McDaniel's ability to whip around one-hand passes with a live dribble. That sort of ambidexterity without having to pick up the dribble is often the difference between a wide-open layup and a turnover. 

Sticking with half-court shot creation, Dug frequently gets a foot in the paint when creating for himself. Once he gets there though, the results are a mixed bag. During my live viewings, he's struggled to finish at the rim. He's simply too small to finish over legit size + length at a decent clip. McDaniel is obviously cognizant of this and takes a lot of "other twos" in the form of off-balance runners and elbow pull-ups. He hasn't been efficient with either of those shot types during my live viewings, but he connected on enough floaters to give me hope that he may be able to score on those shot types at a reasonable clip at Michigan. 

That brings us to Dug's swing skill. Shooting. The shot mechanics aren't bad. The shot origin is a bit too low/starts at the chin-area/a push-shot to a small degree, but not really any unnecessary movement once he starts his upward motion.

In terms of results, McDaniel is 7/30 from three during my live viewings this spring. A very detailed scouting report from Point Guard Eyes had Dug shooting 36% from distance on 36 attempts through 6 games during the HS season with Paul VI Catholic in 2021. That is 20/66 for 30.3% from distance on the aggregate. 

He's flashed the ability to hit pull-ups in my live viewings, but hasn't been able to bury those shot types enough to prevent the opposition from going under screens at the next level. Pretty much the same on catch-and-shoot attempts. A capable shooter, but not likely one that will compel opposing defenses from sagging until he makes a few. I spoke with multiple DMV-area coaches over the weekend that have coached against McDaniel and the majority echoed the same sentiment. Make Dug beat you as a scorer. 

McDaniel is lethal in transition, no question about it. He has elite straight-line speed in the open court and consistently put it to use in my live viewings. He pushes tempo and can outrun the defense to finish or force the defense to commit to stopping dribble penetration at which point he finds teammates for dunks/layups or threes.

From an athletic perspective, Dug has great first-step acceleration and there aren't many HS prospects in the country with his straight-line speed as mentioned above. He's a good leaper in run-and-jump situations where he has space.

Defensively, McDaniel excels at the point of attack where he hounds ballhandlers. He slides his feet really well when ballhandlers dance around the perimeter. Where he can be exploited is when ballhandlers come to the realization that dancing isn't really necessary. Bully-ball drives are where Dug can struggle and that should come as no surprise. Off-ball defense isn't something we typically talk about with small guards, but I've really liked Dug as a free-safety type that jumps passing lanes and comes up with deflections and steals. 

The most extensive scouting report available comes from Point Guard Eyes as noted above. PGE appears to be a DMV-area evaluator exclusively, so the eval may be a bit more friendly due to local ties. Still, this is very in-depth analysis with a ton of visuals that makes for a great report. PGE thinks the improved pull-up game makes Dug a really tough cover in tandem with his playmaking and acceleration:

"Together with his handle and blow-by capability, the improvement in his 3-ball off-the-dribble makes him extremely difficult to defend as a scoring threat.  Giving him some space to work with is now risky, but pressing up may be even more detrimental.  On top of these scoring attributes, his vision, manipulation, and playmaking abilities only add to his to his effectiveness."

Jamie Shaw of Rivals echoed my praise for McDaniel as a playmaker during his recent report from the CP3 Memorial Day Classic:

"McDaniel has the crafty handle to get into the paint and attack his spots on the floor. However, it is his passing that really stands out. McDaniel delivers on target and those on-time deliveries create opportunities for everyone around him."

247 likes the quicks and ability to collapse the defense off the bounce while noting an uptick in his shooting prowess at the Southern Jamfest in May:

"Standing at 5-foot-9, McDaniel was one of the top performers of the day. His quickness and craftiness allows him to score the ball and navigate through a defense with ease. McDaniel can also shoot it well and is a willing passer who looks to get his teammates involved."

That's pretty much it for third party evaluations, as scouting reports have been rather scant over the last year and change due to limited basketball and corresponding viewings based on the health crisis. 

 

OFFERS

Dug didn't come out with the typical "final list", but the functional contenders before committing to Michigan on his OV were Virginia Tech, Penn State and Arizona State. McDaniel landed early offers from UConn, LSU, Georgetown, Florida, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest among others as well.

HIGH SCHOOL

Dug attends Paul VI Catholic in Virginia (DMV-area). Better known as PVI, the program is generally a powerhouse in the WCAC and was also home to 2021 offer Trevor Keels (now a Duke freshman). 

STATS

With an abbreviated HS season, the numbers are limited. Point Guard Eyes has him at 15.7 points and 7 assists per game on 43.9 FG% and 36.1% from distance through 6 games during the HS season. The 53.3% from the charity stripe raises the eyebrows a bit. It's a small sample on 15 attempts, but I don't necessarily know if that is accurate. 

VIDEO

Team Thrill Showcase Highlights, April 2021:

DMV Live Highlights, June 2021:

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

McDaniel probably isn't going to play a ton as a freshman. With Frankie Collins having a year on him and potential for Kobe Bufkin and Zeb Jackson to be on-ball types, we're probably looking at spot duty or a possible redshirt.

After taking a year to add muscle mass and learn the ropes, Dug will probably get real rotational backup minutes at the PG spot to give Frankie a blow for 5-6 minutes per half. Offensively, he's going to provide some wow-moments as a passer that creates easy looks for teammates in ballscreen action. He'll score in transition and hit some jumpers. McDaniel will likely be able to keep his head above water defensively going up against the backups from the opposition. He'll exert ball-pressure and come up with some steals/deflections, but he'll get bullied occasionally as well.

Assuming Frankie is still around in year three, Dug would still project as the backup PG in an identical role as the previous year. But with a full grasp of the system in tandem with 15 more pounds of muscle mass in relation to now, McDaniel will likely be really good in that role. However, if Collins is no longer on the roster, we would likely see Dug in a starting role playing 30 minutes per game. I'm not going to pretend to know whether Dug's size limitations will mitigate his ability to be an impact player going up against starting guards in the B10. Too much of that is dictated by the relative talent/size of opposing guards.

What I do know is that McDaniel's trajectory as a half-court point guard will likely be determined by his ability to make triples at a reasonable clip. At 5'8 - 5'9, he probably won't ever be more than an adequate finisher. The playmaking/passing is absolutely legit, but if Dug doesn't have the requisite gravity as a shooter opposing coaches are simply going to go under screens/sag-off to mitigate his strongest attribute. 

Based on my live viewings, I'd probably project McDaniel as a high 20s - low 30s shooter from distance at Michigan. I do have hopes though, as your coach simply doesn't allow you to attempt 10+ triples in a single game if you're incompetent as a shooter. So perhaps with more reps and better shot quality, Dug becomes a low 30s - mid 30s shooter. 

That brings us to what I believe is paramount for the fit here. The system. Juwan Howard likes to push pace with NBA-like aggression, particularly off misses. This benefits Dug a lot. McDaniel's greatest physical gift is speed and his best skill facet is spatial awareness. Surrounding him with lengthy athletes and high-motor players is probably the best way to maximize Dug. In other words, we need to get stops at a high rate so McDaniel can be fully optimized in open space. And based on the sample and incoming personnel, the Wolverines project to be a damn good defensive team in the foreseeable future.

In terms of numbers, I wouldn't expect McDaniel to score more than 5-7ppg as an underclassmen. His ability to create looks for teammates is the more important thing to look at in that role. Assuming he takes over the PG reigns as an upperclassmen, we're probably looking at 10ish points per game and around 4-5 assists per contest. The 3% is critical for Dug in a starting role. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

The class will have Jett Howard, a big, and at least one of Ty Rodgers/Gregg Glenn/AJ Casey. Projecting anything beyond that is an exercise in futility given attrition and the portal.