Hello: Deuce Spurlock
We are still playing catch-up, and hopefully I’ll have time to get through them all this week and put out a general recruiting update. Next up in the order they committed, 3* AL linebacker Tim “Deuce” Spurlock Jr. A name that Courtney Morgan suggested when he came onboard, Spurlock was invited to Michigan’s camp in June, hit it off with LBs coach George Helow, earned an offer, and seemed on the verge of committing in July before Michigan apparently told him to hold off while they pursued some A-1 targets, all but one of whom have since come off the board.
That plus an extraordinary start to his senior season—Spurlock had 21 tackles, 6 TFLs and 3 sacks in one game this season—seems to have been what shifted him into the take category. He came up for the Rutgers game, committed before kickoff, and announced that Sunday.
GURU RATINGS
I should note that 247 is in the middle of a composite update so Spurlock might be in the 1,000s by the time the time you read this. He was at 994 when I started and 999 at 4:06 PM yesterday when I put this article in the hopper.
| Rivals: 6’2/220 | ESPN: 6’2/200 | 247: 6’2/200 | 247 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3*, 5.5, NR Ovr NR OLB, NR AL |
3*, 78, #308 SE #52 OLB, #29 AL |
3*, 85 (NR Ovr) #94 ATH, #38 AL |
3*, 0.8527, #999 Ovr, #79 ATH, #42 FL |
| 3.40* ➡ | 3.61 ⬆ | 3.42* ➡ | 3.53 ⬆ |
Bottom row is a conversion of the above to a 5-star scale. Arrows show trend of recruiting rankings. An arrow is like a third of a star.
The only movement in the rankings came when ESPN added Spurlock to their database recently. They’re also the most bullish—the other two sites have him ranked down where the 2-stars used to roam before their kind were decimated by FBS over-settlement. The extra 20 pounds reported by Rivals seems significant if we consider the program pays a lot of attention to size. My program source says Spurlock was 215 when they had him up here to camp last summer, and the school roster (via MaxPreps) reads 217. If his senior season continues as it has there’s a lot of room to move up.
The Michigan recruiting comp here is exacting, if ancient (sorry coach, but we are). Roy Manning was listed at 6’2”/210 out of high school, and made the bottom of some regional lists as a “futuristic” SAM linebacker who could cover in space or blitz an edge. The more recent example is Devin Gil, who was ranked around the same spot but was also smaller and not as athletic. Michael Barrett and Dhani Jones are in range as well.
[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]
SCOUTING
Not a whole lot out there, since Spurlock didn’t attend the public camps and nobody was going to look at a 200-pound linebacker until he started putting up gaga stats or committed to a major program. One of the few people to see Spurlock in person is Rivals’ EJ Holland, who flew down to Huntsville a few weeks ago. The article is paywalled but the upshot($):
Along with his build, Spurlock was tremendous speed and athleticism. He spent a ton of time covering in space and looked comfortable doing so, recording a couple of pass breakups, including two near interceptions. As much as fellow commit Aaron Alexander was praised for his 40, I think Spurlock has more game speed and better change of direction. He's a fluid athlete.
There’s a ton more in there about Spurlock’s various positions, his open field tackling, and where he struggled. Holland also spoke to Spurlock’s coach($), who practically screamed “project”($):
"His speed. His explosiveness maybe more than anything. He has good natural instincts. Once again, he loves football. Those are his biggest strengths."
Areas for improvement included “contain” so: pretty, pretty raw it seems.
247 doesn’t have any official scouting either. The Michigan Insider guys (on their podcast) said Michigan got a chance to measure Spurlock on their own during the camp visit. “Plus athlete” was a term thrown around a few times as they described some clay the staff wanted to mold. They all seemed to agree Spurlock was more polished than Belleville commit Aaron Alexander, but “is closer to the field than an injured high school who’s transitioning from RB” is a far cry from “ready to play.”
Steve Lorenz went hunting for Spurlock upshot quotes when a commitment seemed imminent last summer. His findings($): a) the defensive staff were enamored, likening him to former Bama LB Reggie Ragland who’s from the same area, and another coach said Spurlock reminds him of guys that Clemson recruited. Sam laid out the thinking of taking a second smallish grow-an-ILB after Belleville’s Aaron Alexander:
Deuce Spurlock is a little closer to being a guy who could contribute right now…. I think that's why you've really seen this fire back up. They've scouted him (in-person) and he has the game film to go along with that scouting.”
Auburn was recruiting him at inside linebacker he told their 247 guy Keith Niebuhr on September 16th during an Auburn. At the time, the Tigers were still considering an offer. Mississippi State was calling him a hybrid, and South Carolina was noncommittal about a position:
“Really what they were saying was they liked that I can run and they liked the fact that I was versatile and can play multiple positions and stuff,” Spurlock said. “They like the aggressiveness and all that type of stuff.
…but they run a system not too different from Michigan’s (for linebackers), which keeps the linebackers clean in return for them making some tough athletic plays and quick reads.
The local paper also ran a profile after the 21-tackle game and commitment:
Spurlock is a student of the game as he watches film of his opponents every day to see where he can better attack the opposition. He leads the 2021 squad by example. He cherishes the idea he influences his teammates, especially the younger lads on the team. “I try and present to them so they can grasp what I do and do it correctly. I show them by my actions,” added Spurlock.
OFFERS
South Carolina was the other finalist, and Mississippi State and Boston College were after him over the summer. Auburn, who had Spurlock to visit a week before Michigan did, was dangling an offer that finally came the Friday before Deuce committed to the maize and blue.
HIGH SCHOOL
Deuce started at Sparkman before transferring to Madison Academy, which plays in the 4-A (Alabama goes up to 7-A) level, IE a fairly low league. It’s not that low however; Kerryon Johnson (2015), Malik Miller (2016), and Austin Troxell (2017) all played there together, earned four stars, and went on to Auburn. Jordan Matthews, the second star receiver developed under Josh Gattis, was also a Madison Academy alum.
STATS
Via the local article, Spurlock was up to 50 tackles (27 solo) after five games—the team is now 7-1/6-0. MaxPreps doesn’t have Spurlock’s stats for Spurlock’s last two seasons. The 2019 (sophomore) stats are wild, as Spurlock apparently played defensive back and receiver (44 catches for 559 yards and a TD).
FAKE 40 TIME
His Hudl reports a 40-time of 4.65, which gets two FAKES out of five because his whole thing is speed. It also lists a 4.3 shuttle, 30.3 vertical, 210 bench, 11.7 100m, 52.15 400m, 455 squat, 465 deadlift, 235 clean lift, and 69 followers (nice).
VIDEO
These are the first three weeks of the season:
EJ Holland got down to Alabama a couple of weeks ago and got game film:
More video, including his junior highlights and single-game reels, can be found on his Hudl page.
ETC
Plans to major in communications; academics were a priority. Also plays soccer. Spurlock has suffered from asthma since he was a young boy, and no this is not an issue, in case you want to tell your youngster with an inhaler that all his dreams are still on the table. Spurlock himself would like the boy to know that. Some other athletes with asthma: Jerome Bettis, Dennis Rodman, Emmett Smith, Dominique Wilkins, David Beckham, and six-time track medalist Jackie Joyner-Kersee.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
This one is a flier. Spurlock plays a walkout (hybrid)/edge linebacker for his team, which yes that’s closer to ILB than safety, but also going on the growing pile of reasons why I think Spurlock is one to unwrap in three years. Of the grow-a-backers I listed above, Roy Manning got to 240, Dhani Jones was 225 as a senior, and Devin Gil was 236 when he left. They’re going to have to get Spurlock to at least 230, and then see if he’s still making plays in space. They’re also going to have to teach him a lot of football, like how to get off of blocks and sift through traffic. He does seem to have the athleticism to be an impact player down the road. That’s definitely down the road.
The linebacker room has a lot of eligibility right now—Ross probably won’t come back for his sixth year but Nikhai Hill-Green, Junior Colson, Kalel Mullings, Jaydon Hood, Tyler McLaurin, and Joey Velazquez all have some sort of freshman eligibility, with Hood and McLaurin redshirting this year. By the time Spurlock has developed those guys will probably be starting in their later eligibility or gone.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Michigan’s been having a rough go at the position: in-stater Josh Burnham chose Notre Dame, Jeremy Patton committed to Baylor over Michigan and Texas, Sebastian Cheeks went with UNC over Michigan and Texas, and in the meantime second-tier targets Omar Graham slipped away to Florida State while Shaukaun Bowser committed to Colorado. They have had Utah 4* Lander Barton their #1 linebacker and remain in pursuit, but that guy has four family members with the Utes and all the recruiting people think that’s a tough pull. There might be another ILB prospect who pops up this cycle, but with Spurlock and Alexander pledged, Michigan is done taking developmental types.
The commits:
| OFFENSE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | State | Stars | In a nutshell |
| QB | Jayden Denegal | CA | 4.1 | Navarre or Speight |
| RB | CJ Stokes | SC | 3.7 | SC hesitated, Hart didn’t, Stokes doesn't. |
| WR | Tyler Morris | IL | 4.5 | Golden Tate smooth. |
| WR | Tay'shawn Trent | MI | 4.0 | Big, leapy. TE/LB? |
| TE | Colston Loveland | ID | 3.8 | Flex by own admission |
| TE | Marlin Klein | GA | 3.7 | Grow-a-dude |
| OT | Alessandro Lorenzetti | CT | 3.7 | Quebecois steal, if workouts are to be believed. |
| OG | Connor Jones | CO | 3.5 | Puts water in the harbor. |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| Pos | Player | State | Stars | In a nutshell |
| NT | Kenneth Grant | IN | 3.7 | Mammoth. |
| DT | Mason Graham | CA | 3.7 | Wrestler, non-stop motor, late riser. |
| EDGE | Micah Pollard | FL | 3.7 | Braylon nephew, Marcus son, Frank Clark clone. |
| EDGE | Kevonte Henry | CA | 3.7 | Uche edgebacker. |
| LB | Aaron Alexander | MI | 3.3 | Raw hybrid from Belleville. |
| LB | Deuce Spurlock | AL | 3.5 | Grow-a-WILL. |
| S | Damani Dent | FL | 3.5 | Rising cornerbackish safety. |
| CB | Will Johnson | MI | 4.8 | Everything and tall. Deon's kid. |
| CB | Kody Jones | TN | 4.0 | Nickel athlete, Walter Nolen's pal. |
| CB | Myles Pollard | TN | 3.8 | Stribling. Loved you on Colson’s film! |
October 20th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
Something about Spurlock looks very enticing. I know high school film is relative, but he looks like he'd be a contributor in some capacity at Michigan, not a guy that doesn't see the field.
October 20th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
Based on a 11.7 100M and 52 400M - I'd give that 4.65 40 about zero fakes.That is almost exactly what I'd predict based on those track times.
October 20th, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
I would agree. My son was an 11.0 100 and a 4.53 40.
October 20th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Your son's times are right in line with the model I use.
However for Spurlock, this model projects a 4.8
October 20th, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
I say keep them for now, but recruiting rankings are increasingly bibble-babble. What will the 3-star mafia do with their time, when they're gone for good?
On the flip side, if you recruit a "raw" linebacker, you don't know if you've got a linebacker, and you can't really move them around. Linebackering is hard, and we've seen plenty of folks fail to figure it out.
October 20th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
What is your evidence that recruiting rankings are worthless? Because their is a lot of real evidence they are extremely predictive
October 20th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
What's the prediction here, exactly?
October 20th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
You can argue that ESPN should be taken out of the composite rankings or not seriously considered based on that screen shot. Its absolutely not an argument that recruiting rankings don't matter overall.
October 20th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Yearly team rankings with high sample sizes are generally accurate relative to most team's overall performance. Individual rankings are all over the place. Places like 24/7 post an article or articles every year after the draft that exist to convince people that their subscriptions services are worth the money (because they are so accurate) are full of holes. Yes, a 5 star is more likely to be drafted than a 4 star, who is more likely to be drafted than a 3 star. For someone looking to prove rankings are predictive, that is all the evidence they (you?) need. Others look at the same data and ask why does the industry miss so much on 3 stars who make up the largest quantity of players drafted. Craig Ross wrote an article on this site that went into this in detail.
There are several ineffeciencies in the recruiting ranking industry that cause individual rankings to be significantly off.
- Players that don't do a lot of camps and/or are late bloomers so they don't get invited to camps. Remember the majority of evaluations that put most guys somewhere on the rankings board are done during their junior year.
- Players that play or project to a tweener position (example: Uche types, hybrid LB's)
- Bias from the people who do the rankings, who don't like to make big changes late in the cycle, even though we are talking about 16-18 year olds who can change rapidly. This is where the "guys who fall late don't fall far enough, guys who rise late don't rise enough" ranking weakness has been identified.
- Obviously recently - COVID has messed up a lot of evaluations, timelines, development due to missed seasons, etc.
Even a guy who literally makes his living assisting in selling recruiting website subscriptions (Sam Webb) repeatedly references that rankings should be used as a guide, but not as gospel, and points out many of the same things I did above. I've heard Allen Treu on one of the podcasts say almost word for word what I wrote about not liking to move guys down a lot late in the cycle. The rankings are just a group of people's opinions converted into a number, but just because it is a number doesn't mean it is actually quantitative data.
October 20th, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
Of course that is the only evidence I need, because its the only evidence that matters. It would be incredibly stupid to try to argue any individual player's ranking, there will always be misses for a million different reasons. But the trendline overall is still abundantly clear, and to buck that trendline you would need a coaching staff/scouting department that would be the only one in the history of modern college football recruiting to successfully buck that trend.
If your team is a majority three stars its almost a guarantee you aren't competing for a title, its really that simple. That doesn't mean some of those three stars won't perform well and make the NFL but while I want all of these guys to do well, I'm really more focused on the success of the team than any individual outperforming their rankings. Given that, what I really care about is the overall composition of the class, and this class would have to be a massive historical outlier to not be a hole in the push for a championship.
October 21st, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Team A gets 1 five star, 7 four stars, and 13 three stars.
Team B gets 2 five stars, 8 four stars, and 11 three stars.
Team C gets 5 five stars, 14 four stars, and 6 three stars.
We are far more in the Team A/Team B range. Assuming the players at each star level are more or less ranked similarly, which group of players is going to have the biggest impact on the team's performance? If Team A has a notably higher hit rate on 3 stars, whether through development, maximizing talent in scheme/position, etc, they will probably outperform Team B, despite probably having a lower team composite rating. To summarize it as Craig Ross did, getting "the right 3 stars" is going to have a huge impact on a team like Michigan given our general recruiting profile.
We are not Team C. Repeat after me, we are not Team C. That is Bama/OSU/Georgia and sometimes Clemson territory, and occasionally "Blue blood program the year following the hire of a big name coach". This is where the nuance comes in, and why the "stars above all" people drive me nuts. We are going to get some highly ranked guys almost every year, and they will probably have a decent hit rate. If it ever happens, what is eventually going to elevate us to the championship level is outperforming the average hit rate on 3 star guys. Unless something drastically changes, we are not going to consistently get 12-15 top 250 guys every year, so arguing from the position that should be the goal is pointless.
October 20th, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
Scout is gone. Rivals is a shell of it's former self. ESPN is barely keeping the lights on. 247 is all that's left and they can't see everyone. Michigan probably scouts more and better than all the services combined. Add in covid and recruiting rankings are nigh meaningless currently and while covid will eventually work its way out of the issue the decline of the industry is unlikely to reverse course.
October 20th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
Recruiting rankings are really like any benchmark you'd use in the corporate world. There will always be outliers, those which track perfectly, and everything in between. But in aggregate, they are directionally correct.
Hard to judge a single 3 star or 4 star and say they will develop into this or that.
October 20th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
Nuance. There are so many variables, but just with about 3000 Big Ten recruits I have data for:
- 90% of elite (top ten-ish) players "work out"--IE they become FBS all-conf players and go to the Draft and play in the NFL
- 50% of the rest of 5-stars "work out."
- 35% of the top-250 do
- 25% of the rest of the four-stars do
- 28% of the high 3-stars do (an issue that's slowly going away)*
- 8% of the medium 3-stars do
- 1% of anyone below that does.
* This is an interesting outlier that I think reflects the fact that early top-50 players who dropped didn't drop far enough, and late risers weren't given the chance to rise far enough. The sites are getting better about this lately, but there's a four-year maturation period for any changes they make, and they still do this, e.g. Quintin Somerville ended up in the top-250 of the composite despite basically getting processed by Michigan, while Kechaun Bennett remained a 3-star to 24/7 and ESPN to the end long after the word got out that he was a freak.
October 20th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Man I want to like this class but I’m just not seeing it. This wasn’t even a guy Michigan had high on their board either, it’s a shit we can’t take no linebackers take after losing recruiting battles to Baylor,nc, and nd
October 20th, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
Im not crazy about our LB's or QB but the class overall is definitely better than its ranking. And the ranking will rise as a couple of these guys move up 100 to 200 spots. I do believe Michigan needs to land 2 more studs to close out though.
October 20th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
Despite the late Auburn offer, Spurlock probably isn't in the category of guys whose offer lists suggest they're broadly considered a much better prospect than their rankings indicate. He's more of a genuine flyer, albeit one I'm excited about. But so many of the other three-stars in the class--Lorenzetti, Loveland, Henry, Graham, Pollard, Dent, etc.--have offer lists you'd associate with solid four-stars. And frankly I trust the cumulative judgement of coaches at places like Oregon and PSU and Georgia more than I trust overworked recruiting site scouts
October 20th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Annnnnd just like that, it appears Henry, Graham, and Loveland are now top247 players nationally according to 247. Staff must be doing something right!
October 20th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
If you would take your head out of your @ss and actually look at his tape, he looks pretty damn good.
October 20th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
Right its so good, that is why the Michigan coaches told him not to commit because they wanted other recruits more that they didn't get. The staff and non-biased recruiting sites clearly though Burnham, Cheeks, Barton, etc are going to be better players, so I'm not sure why people are trying to argue that suddenly that isn't the case because of a highlight reel against mediocre competition and the fact that he's a Michigan commit.
October 20th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
Just because he's the 4th or 5th option doesn't mean he isn't good...just means he isn't as good.
What I wonder about is how schools with considerably less talent haven't offered? South Carolina(!) took awhile to offer? Alabama kid with very few SEC offers seems strange is all. Nothing against the kid, just wondering what the southern schools are doing differently.
October 20th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
I kind of agree...but part of that is the MGoBlog staff being so good at player evals & tempering expectations when doing hello posts. I think it may lack in star power but I think it's still solid. My biggest concerns were DT & CB and with Will Johnson and possibly Domani, plus the DL already in the class, I think this will be a class that is the foundation for a good defense in 2-4 years.
October 20th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
This class has done an ok job papering holes in the roster. The CB class is good and would obviously be great with Domani. The DL class is fine though lacks an elite guy at the top. But its also going to leave some holes, the QB situation is not great, the linebacker situation is not great, and we still don't really have an impact outside wide receiver. Those aren't holes on the current roster so it doesn't feel as much of an issue, but in 2 years its going to be a problem, just like poor CB recruiting during the times we had Lewis and Long came home to roost last year and potentially still this year
October 21st, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
In case of emergency break (Portal) glass.
What MSU has done is highly instructional, whether we like them or not.
There are two recruiting classes now in CFB: The regular recruiting class and the "Portal recruiting" class. This is what makes up a roster now.
It means a team like us that finishes second for a lot of guys may wind up getting some of them on the roster anyway. Yay!
The recruiting services have not caught up to this yet, but soon they will need to.
October 20th, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
I’m looking forward to hearing “Deuuuuuuuuce” from 110,000 people every time he makes a great play!
October 20th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
With the COVID year, no camps, and little film the current rankings are seriously suspect. More then ever before, this is a year that coaching instinct, networking, and scouting will make or break the recruiting class.
"In Courtney we trust" is a pretty good place to be. We won't know for certain for three years.
October 20th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
Deuce Spurlock. Though rankings vary, he's verging on All-Name team status.
Plus, as 1989 UM GRAD comments above, there's the fun prospect of hearing 110,000 people yelling "Deuuuuuuuce!"
October 20th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
As a Saints fan I can 100% confirm that it is fun to yell Deuuuuuuce at a football game.
October 20th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
It's fair to be concerned about the level of talent in this class.
October 20th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
seconded
October 20th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
thirded? whoops!
October 20th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
There are some holes in the class and some fliers and so on. But also it appears, per a recent board post, that Kevonte Henry and Mason Graham are, as of today, 200 and 213 in the country according to 247. Those guys were generic three-stars and now, well, they are not. Also Colston Loveland is now in the top247 as well. If we're going to take stock of rankings, that seems meaningful
October 20th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
If you are so inclined I think it would be nice to see heights/weights i. the commit table at the bottom of your article.
thanks for all the hard work!
October 20th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
I'm excited about a "raw" player who brings this kind of athletic upside. When these guys work out, they tend to REALLY work out. Welcome, Deuce!
October 20th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
Seth, you forgot to include me in your list of amazing athletes who have asthma.
Comments