Four-star Santa Ana (CA) Mater Dei wide receiver Cristian Dixon announced his commitment to Michigan this morning on Twitter:

LOVE ME OR HATE ME BUT REGARDLESS YOU GOTTA FEEL ME #COMMITTED pic.twitter.com/brm7LbG3BD

— Cristian Dixon (@Dixondoesit8) June 25, 2020

Dixon is the second wide receiver in Michigan's 2021 class, joining Markus Allen, and he ranks fifth among the team's 19 commits on the 247 Composite. He picked the Wolverines from a final eight that also included Cal, LSU, Nebraska, Oregon, Texas A&M, USC, and Washington State. Dixon's pledge move Michigan's class up to sixth in the country in the composite team rankings and widens the gulf between the Wolverines and the #3 team (currently Wisconsin) in the Big Ten.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals	ESPN	247	247 Comp
4*, 5.8, #32 WR, #17 CA, #175 Ovr	4*, 84, #26 WR, #14 CA, #143 Ovr	3*, 87, #96 WR, #59 CA	4*, 0.9175, #38 WR, #22 CA, #210 Ovr

Until today, the three sites were in relative lockstep on Dixon. 247 and Rivals both debuted him inside their top 100 overall prospects before moving him down over the course of a junior season in which Dixon had some reported struggles acclimating in his first year at powerhouse Mater Dei after transferring from Pomona (CA) Diamond Ranch, where he was the unquestioned top dog. 247 slid him down further, but still in four-star range, after Dixon posted mediocre athletic testing numbers in late February.

Then, today, 247 dropped Dixon to his current standing as a middling three-star. They must've reevaluated his film because there certainly hasn't been much football of any form since then. It's a massive drop for a player who looks pretty talented; at the same time, 247 is (surprise!) the site that's seen Dixon more than any other, and with a few different recruiting analysts at that. It'd be really nice if he gets to have a senior season to clear up the discrepancy, so please wear a damn mask.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and more.]

SCOUTING

Dixon has been drawing attention on the camp scene since the summer after his freshman year, when he earned a late-season varsity promotion at Diamond Ranch. Back in June of 2018, 247's Blair Angulo listed him as one of the standouts at UCLA's camp, which followed him earning an offer at USC's team camp:

Cristian Dixon, the 2021 prospect from Pomona (Calif.) Diamond Ranch who landed a USC offer after their camp on Thursday, showed why he might be one of the best receivers in his class out West for his cycle.  He possesses a good frame with long arms at 6-2, 180,  and showed good downfield speed and quickness going in and out of his breaks.  He beat UCLA-offeree William Nimmo on a quick slant route, and that might have been the only clear-cut rep that Nimmo lost on the day.

Late in Dixon's sophomore season at Diamond Ranch, Angulo wrote up his free evaluation for 247, comparing Dixon to erstwhile UCLA wideout and Michigan recruit Jordan Payton:

Athletic build with length. Highly projectable frame to add size without sacrificing fluidity. Dynamic pass-catcher and down-field threat. Major nuisance on the outside. Physicality to overmatch defensive backs and technical enough to be a weapon over the middle. Short strider who is still refining technique, but has major potential. Decent top-end speed. Needs to get out of breaks quicker to become more consistent. Potential multi-year starter at the Power Five level and upside as NFL Draft Day 2 selection.

This isn't the last time we'll run into scouting reports on Dixon that contradict earlier evaluations, contradict prior sentences within the same evaluation, or both.

After a strong sophomore year, Dixon again stood out at camps, barely missing Greg Biggins's top five performers at a loaded Under Armour camp in Mission Viejo:

Picking five players on both sides of the ball was very tough. On offense, there was a ton of talent at receiver and Pomona (Calif.) Diamond Ranch '21 wide out Cristian Dixon was probably next man up. He has an athletic frame, strong body and is explosive off the ball.

Biggins also noted him as a standout at the local Opening regional. At that regional, UCLA's 247 site raised some concerns:

Rounding out the strong group of 2021 receiver was Pomona (Calif.) Diamond Ranch four-star Cristian Dixon, who showed decent athleticism moving through drills but has room for improvement in some of the more technical aspects of the position. He has a short, choppy stride and seemed to run with too much forward lean. He could have been cleaner and sharper going in and out of his breaks and more reliable hands.

In front of the same staff at LA's Under Armour camp, Dixon evidently caught the ball more consistently:

Cristian Dixon, the 2021 wide receiver from Pomona (Calif.) Diamond Ranch, possesses a decent combination of size and athleticism at 6-2, 190, and showed secure hands going through drills.  He has good, but not great speed, and will need continue to improving his burst and refining his route-running in order to prepare for the next level.

Dixon then transferred to Mater Dei, which had Alabama commit Bryce Young throwing to a group of receivers that included senior three-star BYU commit Kody Epps, top-150 2021 Oregon commit Kyron Ware-Hudson, and top-35 2022 prospect CJ Williams. Dixon's mom detailed the toughness of the transition to Sam Webb:

“He did great things over (at Diamond Ranch). If you watch his film, he did great! He was playing as a freshman on varsity. He has always been good, but when you stepped over into Mater Dei, Mater Dei didn't just say, ‘I'm going to take your word for it.’ They have the attitude of, ‘prove it!’ And it's not just him, that's everybody. Prove it! And it was hard. It was definitely a fight, and it doesn't work out very well for every transfer that goes over there. You gotta fight for it. They're very proud of their four year (players) and people that have committed to them for that full time. So, him being someone that has only been there half of the time has had its challenging moments.”

“He didn't start off at the beginning, and he worked his way up. So, it should definitely be a breakout season (this year). One thing I liked about it and I told him, ‘get out there and fight! Prove it. Take it. Make them know you.’ That's my personality though. (Laughter).”

On an explosive offense, Dixon was generally the #4 receiving threat behind the three players mentioned, though on a team of big-play threats, his yards per catch jumps out (via MaxPreps): 

How Dixon performed in that junior season is in the eye of the beholder. Irish247's Tim Prister did his usual film evaluation and came out on the positive end:

Cristian Dixon has a long, agile, gazelle-like ability on 50-50 balls. Tracks deep ball very well. Competitive nature with the belief that he’s going to come down with every pass. Shows good football instincts, adjusting to the situation to find success, which includes some downfield blocking. He carries himself like a big-time player that expects to succeed.

Rivals's Adam Gorney noted the disparity between Dixon's camp performances...

So, when he’s in camps, you see a lot of his speed, he catches everything, gets open, muscles up cornerbacks when he needs to. One-on-one situations, he’s making a lot of plays.

...and his ability to consistently show up in games:

He’s a very talented kid, he looks great. When the ball’s thrown to him, he’s making plays, but he’s not even really the second-best wide receiver on his team as a junior. So, you kind of hesitate a little bit. You don’t want to shoot him up too high, but you don’t want to knock him down too low, either, for that, depending on how the offense is being run and depending on what defenses want to do to stop him and try to let other people beat them.

Biggins, in a scouting report released today, was the most critical:

Dixon had a strong sophomore year at Diamond Ranch but struggled last season at Mater Dei with the step up in competition. He was injured early in the year and then never really got in to the flow of the offense and you could see his confidence take a dip. Getting his confidence back will be big and then improving as a pass catcher and competitor. He struggled at times catching the ball and needs to gain strength and become a more physical receiver. He has a good frame but needs to develop more in his upper body to help create separation and to get off press coverage against some of the better corners he'll see in college. 

That's the "areas to improve" section, so the overall report is better than that indicates—Biggins likes his explosion off the line and through his breaks, long speed, frame, and ability to go up for 50-50 balls. While it's clear Dixon isn't an elite athlete and needs to be more productive, it's hard to square some of these evaluations with him nearly dropping out of 2021's top 100 receivers to 247.

OFFERS

Once again, the other programs in Dixon's final eight were Cal, LSU, Nebraska, Oregon, Texas A&M, USC, and Washington State. Each of those school offered, as have Auburn, Florida State, Miami (YTM), Notre Dame, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon State, and Utah. That's, dare I say, a four-star level list for a West Coast prospect—a good mix of the locals and some national powers.

HIGH SCHOOL

Mater Dei is USC's quarterback factory except when Alabama or Texas or the like step in to nab somebody. The list of notable recent alums is lengthy. Somehow, the only previous Mater Dei player to wind up at Michigan was fullback Scott Panique, who played from 1998-2001, according to the Bentley database.

STATS

In his first year at Mater Dei, Dixon caught 35 passes for 611 yards (17.5 YPC) and six touchdowns. It's worth noting the context: Mater Dei routinely put up 50 points a game in a spread passing attack.

As a sophomore at Diamond Ranch, Dixon recorded 43 receptions for 862 yards (20.0 YPC) and nine TDs.

FAKE 40 TIME

Dixon's combine numbers from February 2019 show room for improvement:

6-1.5, 187, 4.63 40, 4.57 shuttle, 32.3 vertical jump, 36.5 power ball, 87.12 rating

That 40 gets zero FAKEs. The shuttle and vertical are underwhelming for a top receiver prospect, so hopefully those get better. That said, Dixon doesn't look particularly slow or stiff on tape, especially considering the high level of competition he faced as a junior.

VIDEO

Junior highlights:

Sophomore highlights and single-game reels can be found on his Hudl page.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

For what it's worth, I like Dixon's film—he shows good instincts, solid athleticism, and serious willingness to go over the middle—but it's a highlight tape, so if drops and consistency are problems, that's not something I can pick up on. Regardless, it's hard to watch that and believe there are 95 better receivers in the class. It feels like we're missing a piece of the story, one that 247 didn't take until account until today. A senior year in which Dixon functions as a top target would be of great help in gaining clarity. Fingers crossed. (And MASKS ON.)

I'm guessing Josh Gattis thinks Dixon is on that four-star level. Michigan is only projected to lose Nico Collins from this year's group of wide receivers, so barring a fair amount of attrition, Dixon should be afforded the usual, gradual path to playing time as an outside receiver. The two-deep should be open for him to make a move in year two on campus.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

It's up to 19 commits. I'm going to be honest: I find projecting class sizes, especially well out from signing day, to be an exercise in futility, and that goes double when we're still trying to figure out if there'll be football, let alone what would happen with player eligibility should we face a shortened or cancelled season.

With in-state OT Garrett Dellinger off the board to LSU, top remaining targets include FL DE Dallas Turner, MI RB Donovan Edwards, MI OG Rocco Spindler, IA TE Thomas Fidone, MA OG Drew Kendall, CA WR Xavier Worthy, MI OT/DT Rayshaun Benny, NJ DT George Rooks, and CA CB Prophet Brown. Here's the class as it currently stands: