If you’re following closely—and nine of ten doctors recommend not doing this—you’ve probably been convinced several times that Jim Harbaugh is going to one NFL team or another, or definitely returning. Balas at the Wolverine says morale has suddenly plummeted($) among the people they talk to. Poor Sam Webb’s “Harbaugh going or staying? What I’m hearing($)” is now on Part 11. The title of that latest edition is also the most ominous:

'if offered, he's gone'

The good news, groundhogs, is that we probably don’t have to suffer through another six weeks of this.

SO HE’S GONE?

Well, there’s an “if” in there. IF the meeting tomorrow goes well and the Vikings offer Harbaugh the job, it sounds like he’s going to take it. Sam said today that the Vikings have Harbaugh on the top of their list, but that he needs to address concerns held by others in the organization. From conversations with a reader who knows the organization well, I get the sense that “others in the organization” refers to the ownership.

WHAT CHANGED YOUR TUNE?

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Harbaugh’s offered the job tomorrow—I was at 60-40 yesterday when I made my hot take on this morning’s podcast that Jim was going to coach Michigan next year. I wasn’t worried this whole time because we’ve done Harbaugh to NFL bler bler so many times since 2015 that I’ve become used to NFL reporters using his name for clicks and NFL executives wanting no part of him. I think the hidden story of what’s changed is Matt Weiss was able to convince his friend (they went to grad school together at Stanford) and analytics soulmate Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah that Harbaugh is the only guy with a chance to turn around the fortunes of a team stuck in Kirk Cousins hell.

WHAT CHANGED HARBAUGH’S TUNE?

That’s for Harbaugh or those closer to him to answer. He’s always been a weird dude capable of pursuing one route with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind, then reversing course and going just as hard that way. There’s also a big difference between talk in 2016, when he was just getting started at Michigan, and in 2022, after seven seasons in Ann Arbor, a Big Ten championship, a defeat of Ohio State, a playoff appearance, and a young roster and durable young staff set up for future success if the next guy can fill a few holes.

I maintain that the 2021 negotiation shifted Harbaugh’s sense of himself in the grand scheme of Michigan. Warde Manuel and the Michigan administration were always behind him—Schembechler Hall does what it wants and Weidenbach Hall does what they can to help, as the saying goes—but it was clear after the 2-4 season that Harbaugh was no longer the toast of the town, or completely synonymous with Michigan Football. Once it got in everybody’s minds that Michigan had a future beyond Harbaugh, and maybe a brighter one, it must have occurred to him too. There was a time not too long ago that Michigan was still synonymous with Bo, and Harbaugh was the natural heir of that program. I think the fanbase has come around slowly on the sense that Michigan is Michigan, a mega corporation with some quirky values both quaint and admirable, and a history worthy of its brand. The Great Man Theory fell out of favor in the History Department when I was getting a bachelor’s from them. Recent events and revelations finally moved that idea all the way down State Street, probably for the better. But if you’re the Great Man in residence as that happened I have to imagine the experience was humbling.

HOW DID WE GET FROM ‘OAKLAND IS STILL IN PLAY’ TO HERE?

Harbaugh+NFL rumors is an absolute fount of bad reporting, so piecing together something resembling the truth has been difficult. Here’s the timeline, as I understand it:

• Jan 2021: The season sucks, Harbaugh makes overtures to the NFL, but nobody wants him, and Michigan offers an insultingly low contract that they can get out of if they need to fire him.
• Harbaugh reshapes his staff with young guys, several of them former players from the Carr era, including mending fences with Mike Hart, with whom Harbaugh publicly feuded at times.
• After achieving all the things, Harbaugh senses this is his last opportunity to jump back to the NFL if he’s ever going to, and the first time he’s been able to do so and feel like he’s done right by his alma mater.
• The first and most sensical opening was the Raiders, as Harbaugh is friends with the owner, got his start in coaching with the organization, and met his wife in Las Vegas. But they go in another direction.
• Other NFL openings come and go with Harbaugh’s name attached to them only by clickbait news reporters. Jacksonville? Not with Trent Baalke there. The G-Men? No interest. Chicago, who drafted him way back when? Not even remotely interested. Miami? If Stephen Ross is talking to Harbaugh it’s about how much it takes to stay at Michigan.
• Michigan puts a contract in front of Harbaugh. It’s similar to Ryan Day’s—both parties think MSU’s contract with Mel Tucker is laughable. It has a buyout that would change the math if an NFL team comes in the future.
• Harbaugh doesn’t sign it, waiting out the stragglers of the NFL coaching cycle. At this point it seems like there won’t be any more interest materializing unless one of the coachless teams hires the odd GM who thinks he can work with Harbaugh.
• The Vikings hire Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, an analytics-minded executive who worked for San Francisco when Harbaugh was there, and more importantly is good friends with Michigan QB coach/analytics dude Matt Weiss.
• Adofo-Mensah’s first choice for HC is 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans.
• Weiss sets up a call between Adofo-Mensah and Harbaugh, and the two hit it off.
• Rumor spread that Ross would jump in to get Harbaugh for the Dolphins if an NFL job was imminent. This seems to lead back to a conversation Ross had with Harbaugh when they were negotiating the Michigan contract that I interpret to be Harbaugh asking Ross to bring him to Miami and Ross saying something like “Dude, if I’m cutting you a check it’s to coach for Michigan.”
• Smart guys like me look at the Vikings job holistically—horrible cap situation, ruthless ownership who abhor drama, another Midwest town with less appeal that Ann Arbor—and believe Harbaugh’s interest in that job must be lukewarm.
• Ryans declines a second interview. Harbaugh moves up Adofo-Mensah’s list. That list includes Rams OC Kevin O’Connell and DC Raheem Morris, and Giants DC Patrick Graham.
• Harbaugh flies to Minneapolis for an interview today. Multiple reports from all sides saying if offered the job Jim is expected to take it. Balas thinks the Dolphins might make a play if that happens, but at that point it’s all the same to Michigan.

Meanwhile there were a lot of false rumors put to bed beyond the speculation for HC jobs that went nowhere. Harbaugh was not doing this for a contract negotiation—if he wanted anything it was for Michigan do things they already knew they would be dragged into, like paying their assistants more and playing the NIL game intelligently. The dumbest of the dumb were those who thought the dollar amount on the contract was going to matter. What the 2021 contract meant mattered, but the dude ended up making what he usually does in bonuses and then gave all that money back to people in the athletic department hurt by the COVID year.

WHAT HAPPENS IF HE GOES?

They have to sign a class, hire a new head coach, and decide what to do with the staff.

The first immediate need—and also the most minor one—is shoring up the 2022 class. Tomorrow is National Signing Day, but most of the class was already signed in December, and this is still technically just the first day of another signing period, so the only people making a big deal out of the first Wednesday in February these days are those looking to create drama.

Michigan’s still wants to sign 5-star OT Josh Conerly and an impact edge rusher. No doubt their head coach’s long dalliance with the NFL was suppressing those efforts. It’s clear from the comments of recruits and their parents that Harbaugh was honest about the potential he could leave for an NFL job, at least. Most of the class is signed, however. Here the new transfer rules have done us a favor—just last year if a coach left after NSD guys would be able to ask out of their letters of intent and would have had the leverage to get that. Now they just have to use their free transfer year, which means at least it costs something to transfer again. Depending on what happens with the assistants, that might happen with one or two guys, but I don’t think the class falls apart under any scenario. As for anyone not signed, if they’ve managed to draw a guy in, they’ve got it tightly under wraps. If they add someone tomorrow it’s a Dennis Norfleet type they’ve had their eyes on in case there was room. No idea whom that might be.

As for a head coach, it’ll of course be a circus. There are names I could put out there, and names others will come up with, but we have to get to that in its time. I believe the school wants to get it done quickly, has had ample time to think about it already so they’re already down to a narrow list of candidates, and that they value keeping most of Harbaugh’s staff together.

WHO WOULD STAY? WHO WOULD GO?

It depends a lot on the head coach hire, and the staffer. Nobody is 100% safe, but you can split the assistants roughly into three categories:

Harbaugh/NFL dudes. DC Mike Macdonald is already back with the Ravens. I have zero doubt QB coach Matt Weiss would go with Harbaugh. I don’t know what LBs coach George Helow is thinking; he debunked rumors of interest in FAU’s DC job (his brother goes there) over the weekend, but he also followed Macdonald to Michigan and was the weak spot on the coaching staff last year. Losing him might cost Michigan Raylen Wilson. TE/Special Teams coordinator Jay Harbaugh would certainly have the choice to follow his father, but also an opportunity to get out of his shadow, and any head coach would certainly want Jay to remain on staff.

Harbaugh’s college hires. The next three names all depend on who’s named head coach. After the coordinators, the OL coach and the strength & conditioning coach are the core of your program. The S&C guy in particular tends to come attached to the head coach, because that guy gets to work with the players many more hours than any on field staff, and thus serves a de facto role as the coach in absentia. OC/WRs coach Josh Gattis is the reigning Broyles winner and the leading internal candidate to take over for Harbaugh. If Michigan makes an offensive mind HC hire we could lose Gattis; if they hire a defensive guy however it would seem keeping the nation’s reigning top assistant makes a lot of sense since that guy would be high on the list even if he wasn’t already ensconced. Co-OC/OL coach Sherrone Moore is another guy you leave in place unless the new HC has a built-in offensive line coach. S&C Coach Ben Herbert was a coup when he was hired, and again is a top notch candidate you would like to hold onto unless the new coach comes with a certain guy.

Michigan’s college hires. Weirdly, Michigan has more guys attached to the institution than the head coach than perhaps any Michigan staff since the olden days. That’s probably because they were all guys who could believe their positions would be secure no matter what happened with Harbaugh. In ascending order of attachment: DBs (cornerbacks) coach and soon-to-be co-DC Steve Clinkscale is owed a DC title in his contract based on Michigan’s performance last year, unless they want to split hairs because in base passing yards per game they fell to 27th after Georgia where the threshold was top 25. Clink didn’t go to Michigan but he was born to coach in Michigan, has strong ties in the state, and was considered the top in-house candidate for DC when Macdonald left. Losing him would be a big blow one year after they finally brought him home.

RB coach Mike Hart gives people around him the air of a future head coach—it’s an open secret that his arguments with Harbaugh didn’t end when he started working for him, but that’s because the two are strikingly similar people. Hart is clearly here for Michigan, not Harbaugh, so if he leaves it’s because the new coach asked him to. Safeties coach Ron Bellamy is another potential future head coach, finally making the step from Hall of Fame-worthy high school coach to college track. He is beloved, has proven to be their best recruiter, and fits so well in so many spots on any staff that losing him would be a black mark on the new head coach. Finally, DL coach Mike Elston came in just a few weeks ago with full knowledge of the fluid Harbaugh situation. He’s a star DL coach who was passed over for DC so many times at Notre Dame that he decided he might as well be the DL coach at his alma mater. Whoever’s named head coach is stuck with him—it’s not like that’s a bad fate.

I want to stress here that this is not normal--Michigan is about as well set up for a coaching change as you can be, with young staff in key positions who aren't tied to the head coach. Ohio State had a similar transition but they also had to pretend to not have fired Urban Meyer for a year to pull it off.

BEST GUESS?

Harbaugh’s gone, they hire Gattis, and he does fine, because Harbaugh left a solid foundation. But that’s just a guess; coaching situations can get really hairy, as most of us recall. My advice for you today is to try to think of the last one, where your Michigan fandom was in late 2014 before we clinked beers and said “Harbaugh” to each other, and where it was before 42-27. Head coaches matter a great deal, especially in the long term health of the program. But if the floor here is they hire the reigning Broyles winner, that’s a far better place to be than most I could have imagined for 2/1/2022.