Future Hoops Originals: Will Tschetter, Offense Comment Count

Matt EM July 22nd, 2020 at 4:01 PM

I made the trip to the Minneapolis last weekend to get a detailed look at 2021 commit Will Tschetter at the D1 Summer Classic. Suiting up for the Minnesota Heat, Will generally plays lower level competition in both high school and AAU, so this was the rare opportunity to evaluate him against legit competition in the championship game against D1 Minnesota (Adidas sponsored with multiple Division 1 prospects).  

My general approach is to refrain from making evaluations based on a single performance. Three games is adequate to get a good feel in my opinion, as there are enough highs and lows to properly assess strengths and weaknesses. In line with that philosophy, I took in three live games of Will on Sunday. The first two games in bracket play came against D1 Minnesota’s 17u B team (essentially 1 low-major D1 prospect and a roster full of NAIA/D2 prospects) and the Minnesota Fury (all NAIA/D2 prospects).

The championship game is the matchup I was hoping for, as Tschetter squared off against D1 Minnesota’s Adidas team featuring high-major prospects in 2021 EM 4* forward David Joplin, 2021 big/Minnesota commit Treyton Thompson, 2022 EM 3* guard Tamin Lipsey and 2022 EM 3* guard Eli King among others. 

In a two-part analysis, today’s piece will focus on the offensive side of the ball exclusively. I have inserted scouting notes within the clips below to assist you in walking through the film from a scouting/evaluation point of view. 

To aid in identifying Tschetter and distinguish between teams in the clips below:

Will Tschetter – wears #42 and is wearing purple in all clips

D1 Minnesota B team (gray jerseys/Game 1)

Minnesota Fury (black jerseys/Game 2)

D1 Minnesota Adidas (white jerseys/Game 3)

Pick and Pop Action

Let’s start off with the strongest facet of Tschetter’s game, his ability to knock down triples in pick and pop action. 

As a shooter, Will is extremely comfortable taking 3s as a popper. He’s generally going to get off a quality shot even if it doesn’t go in. Tschetter knocked down 40% of his PnP attempts on Sunday and could’ve easily made all 5 of shots. 

In terms of shot mechanics, the shot origin is lower than I’d like to see, the elbow is cocked out a bit and it’s more of a set shot than a true jumper. That said, Will’s shots are almost universally on-line. Just a matter of whether he gets enough arch. 

Tschetter is a smart player that utilizes the threat of his jumper to attack closeouts from bigs. Once a big is in full recovery mode, he attacks the rim off the bounce and puts the defender in a position where he has to concede a layup or foul. 

As a passer, Will is generally a very good high-low facilitator out of pick and pop as well. It allows him to play more of a finesse/perimeter role and allows for 2 big lineups provided he can keep up defensively. 

The problems manifest when the defender closing out is more agile, which is going to be a theme moving forward. Tschetter simply lacks the requisite acceleration to beat recovering defenders and help defense even when it appears he has the angle to do so. 

Overall, Will is a great fit for pick and pop sets where he will really thrive against defenses that use drop coverage. If the opposing big drops (likely a slower/traditional big in the mold of Garza/Kofi, etc.), Tschetter is going to hit 3s at a high clip or attack closeouts with straight line drives. When the opposing big is more agile (think Xavier Tillman) and hedge + recover is the defensive approach, he may run into some issues. 

[Hit THE JUMP for the full breakdown.]

Post Offense

Will’s go-to move on the block is to back his defender down, use a subtle head fake middle before drop-stepping baseline for the finish. His goal is to bait the defender middle to create the angle for an easy finish off the backboard. He’s relying on his ability to outthink his defender as opposed to being a superior athlete. 

Tschetter looked very good utilizing this tactic on his first post possession against EM 4* David Joplin (#4 in white). The drop-step was quick, compact and effective.

Once the scouting report on the drop-step was out of the bag though, Joplin and the D1 Minnesota bigs essentially shut Will down as a back to the basket scorer. He did flash the ability to use a second pivot on one possession to draw a foul, but he was largely relegated to risky passes when using the drop-step after that initial post possession.

I was very impressed with Tschetter’s ability to create angles for over-the-top entry passes and his spatial awareness in those situations. He sealed at a ¾ angle to get the defender on his side, creating an easy entry passing lane. Once he turned to drop-step, Will gave a shot fake, got defenders off their feet and proceeded to finish. Just very good sealing technique and spatial awareness in tight spaces. 

Tschetter’s biggest problem with his back-to-the-basket is a lack of lift. He had some ugly misses that should be nearly automatic against smaller defenders/lower level competition. Once David Joplin (similar size) walled up against Will at the 1:38 mark of the clip above, his lack of verticality precluded him from getting a solid look and barely drew front rim. The 1:53 mark was the most problematic from an evaluation standpoint. Will sealed a lower level defender in the restricted area that is probably 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter and was unable to get enough lift to finish what should’ve been an automatic layup or dunk. 

Tschetter projects to be a solid post offense option at the next level, but not with high volume, particularly as a scorer. He’s a below the rim finisher that is undersized (more on that in Part II) and will be working with an athletic/physical deficit on most nights in the B10. As a transition to the next section, he projects better as passer from the post. 

Passing/Facilitation

Will is very good passer from the top of the key where he can survey the defense and make decisions. Whether it was post-entry passes or kickouts to shooters, he threw precision passes with zip on most occasions. The only small issue I noticed is that he tended to struggle when the pass required touch/more air, but I don’t necessarily think that will be problematic at the next level. 

He had some impressive moments passing out of the post as well. Tschetter instantly kicks out when he feels a secondary defender dig/double, which puts the defense in scramble mode. He also has good enough feel to dish out dumpoffs when the help defender leaves his feet to block a shot. 

What I didn’t like is the long passes he made when his drop-step didn’t work. Because the baseline drop-step is Will’s go-to move, he’s often left with no real estate once the defense has adjusted to that move. At that point he’s left with 2 options, neither of which are good. Either step out of bounds or make a lengthy pass that has a high likelihood of being intercepted. This occurred multiple times, particularly against legit competition in D1 Minnesota. Tschetter leaves his feet to pass at times, which is a huge no-no at any level of basketball. 

I’m not going to dedicate much time to Will’s ability to playmake for others off the bounce, as it is very unlikely he is used in that role for the Wolverines. In short, Tschetter flashes some vision off the bounce in the open-court and against slower bigs, but struggles in that regard against more agile defenders.  

Face-Up Game

Will has the ability to attack off the bounce with 1-2 dribbles when a slower big is defending him on the perimeter. He uses head fakes and the threat of his jumper to create space and get to the rim + finish in a straight line.

As I mentioned before, the lack of agility is going to be a theme. Will struggled when matched up with more agile defenders. He was consistently beat to the spot by non-traditional bigs, even when it appeared he had a good angle to beat his defender. 

His lack of acceleration limits his ability to take more than 1-2 dribbles. Tschetter isn’t going to change direction with a live dribble much, but when he does choose to do so, its typically going to be a spin move. Even when he utilized this move, he was easily beat to the spot and it resulted in turnovers.  

Will projects to be a matchup dependent face-up big in college. He will be able to do some things off the bounce against slower/traditional bigs, but there’s simply no way you allow him to dribble versus any defender with adequate agility. 

Catch and Shoot Jumpers

This is the portion of the evaluation I really struggled to grasp. Generally, a catch and shoot 3 is going to be a better shot attempt in relation to pick and pop because it involves less body movement. Tschetter looks great as a pick and pop shooter, but no so much in catch and shoot attempts.

The lack of arch really manifested on the catch and shoot attempts above. Some of these shots were barely drawing front rim. He’s capable of making these looks (knocked down 1), but its bizzare to see such a deviation from his pick and pop attempts.

I wish I could tell you there’s some explanation in terms of shot mechanics/balance, but there isn’t. Will’s shot mechanics are basically identical for both shot types. 

Running The Floor

Tschetter is great at transitioning from defense to offense. He absolutely hauls ass down the court to create an advantage. The first three steps are typically most important in gaining separation and man does he grasp that concept well.

He does prefer to run the wing as opposed to rim-running though, which isn’t ideal. If he rim runs, that likely sucks the defense into the paint, allowing for transition 3 attempts, which are typically good shots. 

Overall though, I love this part of his game. Not much analysis to provide here, he hustles down the court and it’s going to create an easy bucket 1-2 times per game. 

Pull-Up Jumper

It’s the dream of every big to take step-back jumpers in contemporary times. It is also the nightmare of every coach on earth unless your big is Anthony Davis. 

I admire Will’s courage to take these shots and got a good chuckle out of it. But yeah, it is not a good shot attempt for him whatsoever. Tschetter simply lacks the lift, body control or shot mechanics to take these type of shot attempts. 

I highly doubt he will take more than a handful of pull-up jumpers at Michigan. I assume those shot attempts will be followed by a swift benching in the absence of garbage time in lopsided affairs.  

Free Throws

Will has consistent shot mechanics at the charity stripe and knocked those down at an extremely high clip. 

I’m not a subscriber to the good FT shooter = good 3pt shooter theory, in large part because free throws don’t involve movement/defenders, whereas 3pt attempts typically do. That said, there is evidence to suggest a correlation between the two. And if that’s the case, his FT shooting bodes very well for his projected 3%.

Above and beyond that, I think Tschetter will draw fouls at a reasonable rate based on his affinity for shot fakes that will get opposing bigs off their feet during his first stint of a given game. 

Sign me up for free points at the line, particularly considering that we’ve had our struggles in recent years at the free throw line. 

Summary and Projection

Will Tschetter is a player that compels matchup issues against slower bigs. His perimeter shotmaking and ability to attack traditional centers off the bounce forces the opposition to either adjust their ballscreen defense if using drop coverage or go small. 

He’s crafty on the block in terms of using drop-steps and head/shot fakes to get defenders off their feet in order to get clean looks or draw fouls. Will is a below average athlete and compenstates by outthinking the opposition to get necessary space.

At the college level his optimal role comes in pick and pop action. While I believe the reported 45% from distance in HS is probably fudged a bit (shot is too flat), I do expect Tschetter to connect at a 35 – 38% clip from distance at Michigan, especially if the majority of his 3pt attempts come as a popper. 

As a face-up option, his utilization is dictated by the opposing big. Will is too limited athletically to attack the Xavier Tillmans of the B10, but should find success attacking closeouts from Garza/Williams/Cockburn types. 

I do like Tschetter as a facilitating post-up option that can find cutters when he faces a double, but I don’t necessarily think he’s a back-to-the-basket scorer on decent volume. He’s just too challenged vertically, and that is exacerbated by the lack of adequate size/length. 

He absolutely projects to be a facilitating big from the top of the key in high-low action or Horns in two-big lineups, provided he can stay on the floor defensively. More on that in Part II………….

Comments

AC1997

July 22nd, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

Great analysis and thanks for all the work that went into this.  I had a couple of thoughts having gone through it...

  • I'm not worried about the catch-and-shoot numbers since I think you only clipped 3-4 of them.  Sample size is too small.
  • I like  his comfort level in ball screens because he showed the ability to pick-and-pop, attack slower bigs, and also pass to the post.  While his post moves are limited, I like the idea of him taking a guard into the post if they switch on the ball-screen.  
  • It is obvious that if Will were 6'11" instead of 6'8" his limitations become a lot smaller because he can use that extra length to compensate for his athleticism or match-ups.  
  • What was hard for me to grasp was how your analysis compared to other players like him at this point.  Wagner was taller and a more natural shooter....but I don't know that he had more than one post move or the ability to beat better athletes off the dribble.  Johns is a much better athlete and looks great in an empty gym, but did he show some of the passing ball-screen, post moves, or comfort shooting at this stage?  I just have no comparison.

I see a smart player who will know his strengths at the next level and settle in as a great rotation player off the bench who will be unlikely to start much in his career but will be a valuable role player.  

AC1997

July 23rd, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^

I love me some player comps and I appreciate waiting until you do the whole package to get there.  But in this case I was referring more to comps by role.  Let me try to explain....

You did a great job breaking his game down into individual components.  But for obvious reasons you were very critical regarding some of them.  "He only has the drop step" or "he can't beat elite athletes off the dribble" or "I wish he'd run the floor down the center instead of the wings".  All legit feedback.

What I'm trying to do in my head for each category is to calibrate myself to what you're saying.  I know Will isn't going to be Kevin Durant or LeBron James.  But even with them I don't know where their skills were as a rising high school senior.  I don't know if a guy like Moe Wagner or Brandon Johns or Mitch McGary was dominating everyone in all facets or not....let alone guys like Ricky Doyle, Max Bielfeldt, or Austin Davis.

My general conclusion with Will is that he's a low-ceiling guy who you can count on for hustle, effort, solid shooting, savvy ball-screen play, and not much else.  If he were 6'10" or taller we might have found a good center prospect.  If he were more athletic he might be a great college 4.  He's neither, so he's bound likely for a modest role

Matt EM

July 23rd, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^

Physcially, he's pretty similar to Max Bielfeldt in terms of size/length/athleticism........minus a few pounds. While, he moves a bit better and is a better athlete overall, he has some similarities to Smot in terms of role and skillset. And after watching him for 3 games, motor probably isn't a strong suit for him as it relates to the defensive end. You'll see that in today's piece this afternoon. 

KTisClutch

July 22nd, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^

are those the only catch and shoot opportunities he had? 5 is kind of a small sample to be making any kind of conclusions there, especially since as you said the shot is the same from his pick and pop

Matt EM

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^

Unfortunately, you don't really get an adequate sample of anything in 3 games. That said, its typically enough for me as an evaluator to get a good idea of what level a given skill facet is. But there was definitely a consistent trend of his shots lacking arch on catch and shoot attempts. To be candid, I omitted one particular attempt that literally hit the bottom of the backboard in a shot attempted from the top of the key because I didn't think it was a fair representation of his shooting ability. 

lsjtre

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^

Man, I hope Tschetter can bring to Michigan what Wisconsin has been winning with for generations: big men bank threes...the cause of so many people wishing backboards were eliminated from the game 

njvictor

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^

Awesome write up, Matt. Tschetter seems like a really nice player that will seems like he could really benefit from learning from Juwan and improving from Coach Sanderson. He seems like he can be a long term contributor

Wolverine In Exile

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^

Good passing big with limited athleticism and post up game, but a knock down flat pick and pop shooter and aggressive runner on transition. 

So he's Bill Laimbeer. I'll take it. 

(And for those of you too young to remember outside of pop culture references like Bill Laimbeer Combat Basketball, Laimbeer was a deadly outside shooter for a big man and a hell of a passer from the high post. Go watch highlights of the '89 Finals)

OkemosBlue

July 22nd, 2020 at 6:11 PM ^

I'm a believer in hard work, and I think he could become a starter if they can improve his obvious quickness-agility issues with good coaching.  We will have to see, but if Duncan could work his way to the NBA, then this kid can too.  He'd have to improve his shot, of course, but then that seems coachable too.  

TrueBlue2003

July 23rd, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^

Duncan Robinson is an outlier of epic proportions.  Possibly the most unlikely starter-ish player in the NBA in a generation.  And he did it by being exceptionally good at one skill.

I don't really think it's realistic to even hope for a repeat of that.  He was such a rare exception.

Not saying it's impossible, but if this guy worked his way into being a quality Big Ten starter, it would a resounding success.

TrueBlue2003

July 22nd, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^

Wait, this event took place last week?  Like in a real indoor gym and it allowed spectators?

I assumed this was footage from pre-pandemic. Can we talk more about the logistics of this event and how something like this is allowed to happen indoors in a city that had some concerning case spikes a couple months ago? 

TrueBlue2003

July 23rd, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^

Yes, I understand it's relatively under control in the summer like most northern states but I'm shocked large indoor events like this that aren't even close to essential are happening.  It was also relatively under control in Florida and Texas and Arizona when they opened up to stuff like this and then it exploded there.

It was relatively under control in CA where I live and then they (stupidly) opened bars and movie theaters and indoor dining and now kids aren't going to be in school in the fall.

I feel like if Minnesota is fine doing things like this, they should be good (as a state) with college football which seems far less dangerous since it's outside.

Here's hoping.

4th phase

July 22nd, 2020 at 8:28 PM ^

You talk about his ability to attack slow centers in a 2 big lineup...but in that situation wouldn’t the other team primarily match up with a 4? 
 

Seems kind of like an early Beilein big. A little small, limited athleticism, but can knock down shots. But Juwan will help build his post game as he did for Davis. 
 

If he ended up playing against the team of all D1 prospects then what team was he on?

 

I also found it funny you said evidence suggest correlation between FTs and 3 % but you aren’t buying it, embrace the math and analytics Matt. 

Matt EM

July 22nd, 2020 at 9:20 PM ^

I doubt I'll ever buy into the analytics movement. I like to evaluate based on independent variables/inputs (skill facets/physical abilities/athleticism) as opposed to dependent variables/outputs. The art of evaluation is all about projecting productivity against bigger/longer/faster/quicker/stronger athletes. Offensive rating, usage, OPM, DRPM simply cannot equip one with that. 

I like to think I'm competent at what I do. Never once have I had one of my D1 subscribing coaches inquire as to what a given prospect's usage/ORtg, etc. is, and I doubt I ever will. 

ak47

July 22nd, 2020 at 11:41 PM ^

There is a big gap between the number of variables that drpm and the issues with that and being able to analyze a clear two variable problem like the correlation between ft percentage and 3 point percentage. Not buying that is just ignoring helpful data because you don’t like the idea of data. That’s a weird position to take 

you can say because of athletic limitations you don’t think he will be able to get many good shots off. But that is different than saying whether he is likely to be able to knock down good looks consistently. The ft correlation suggests the shooting ability, the other factors influence how often that shooting ability matters. 

4th phase

July 23rd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

Yeah obviously didn't mean to cast aspersions on your ability as an evaluator. And maybe analytics was the wrong word because I'm not suggesting HS prospects should be rated on OTRG. Obviously projecting a HS athlete to college and NBA comes from a lot of eye test/experience. 

It's just, as ak47 points out below, it isn't so much analytics as a clear correlation between 2 things, which you admit in the article is backed up by evidence. I'd be interested in if you have other theories on what could explain the correlation. We shouldn't blindly follow correlations, but these things in particular, which as far as I can tell, relies highly on repeatability of shooting motion, seem reasonable to link.

Appreciate your analysis and the work you do.

Billmunson

July 22nd, 2020 at 9:36 PM ^

“I don’t like him,” said the scout. “Smart guy. That’s it.” Top scout's reply when asked about Tom Brady. 

Billmunson

July 22nd, 2020 at 9:39 PM ^

Expos GM Kevin Malone, via Bleacher Report's Bill Sparos: "He could have been one of the greatest catchers ever. I know that's quite a statement, but the projections were based on the fact we had a left-hand-hitting catcher, with arm strength and who was athletic."------Tom Brady's Seattle Mariner workout scouting report. Scouting an inexact science. 

outsidethebox

July 22nd, 2020 at 9:53 PM ^

The kid is 17 years old. He appears to be a smart player-I believe he is going to figure quite a few things out in the next couple of years. There are aspects of playing up the skill ladder that are easier...and I think he will benefit here. The opposition is going to underestimate his abilities.

ak47

July 22nd, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^

Sounds like a finesse, matchup dependent role player. Makes sense to pick a guy like him up in a class with 7 spots but if he’s getting 10+ minutes a night it’s probably not on a team making any kind of noise that season 

njvictor

July 23rd, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^

Agreed, Tschetter definitely has more to his offensive game than Nunez or Davis. Tschetter I think will drastically improve with a college S&C program, tutelage of Juwan, and adjusting to better competition. I could see him more in a Ryan Kriener role, but I could also see him being better than that

S.G. Rice

July 23rd, 2020 at 8:40 AM ^

As long as expectations about improved athleticism are kept in check, seems like an enticing prospect.  Sure, he'll get stronger and possibly even a bit quicker after Camp Sanderson, but he'll never be a five star athlete. 

The good news is he has skills already and with some coaching there isn't any reason to think he won't improve both his low post game and his shot.  Showing some ability to pass is a big plus, especially for a guy who was leaned on to score a bunch in HS.