I made it to the DMV-area a few weeks back to get a detailed evaluation for 2022 signee Dug McDaniel of Paul VI Catholic (PVI) at the National High School Hoops Festival. This was a great opportunity to get an updated look at Dug against solid competition. 

On Saturday, PVI squared off against The Patrick School featuring 2024 James Moore (top-40 nationally), 3-star junior Jahlil Bethea and senior PG Dionte Johnson (multiple LM-MM D1 offers). 

Archbishop Spalding was the opponent on Sunday, headlined by 5-star wing and Villanova signee Cam Whitmore along with senior guards Jordan Pennick and C.J. Scott (both hold multiple LM-MM D1 offers).

I've seen McDaniel no less than 15 times in the last year, so the evaluation structure is going to be a bit different this time since his performance this time around was more or less the same as it has been on prior occasion. Less in the way of results/analysis and more projection for his tenure in Ann Arbor.

 

PLAYMAKING FOR OTHERS

No doubt about it, this is the best attribute of Dug's game. McDaniel displayed every pass you can fathom. Look-off dimes, precision bounce-pass dumpoffs, one-hand cross-court passes.............you name it, he's got it. The spatial awareness was generally superb and he consistently found teammates with accurate passes that placed them in scoring position.

Dug's shot-creating ability for others is aided by his acceleration + speed, where he can get a step on defenders in the blink of an eye. That forces help defense and gives him the requisite openings to create these shots for others. He is the epitome of a playmaker for others in both half-court settings and in transition. Simply put, he makes others better in an entertaining way. 

 

SHOOTING

Let's get right to it, since this is probably the skill facet the overwhelming majority want to tackle. McDaniel went 0/5 from distance and 1/3 on midrange pull-ups during the two games I viewed. No real need to go in-depth here. Dug has been a below-average/average shooter during every live viewing I've had over the last year and that remained true on this occasion. The shot mechanics need a bit of work, but they aren't what I'd label as poor by any means. 

[Hit THE JUMP for the full breakdown.]

FINISHING

This is the absolutely the area with the most room for improvement. Here's the breakdown in finishing splits:

3/5 - restricted area twos 

3/12 - non-restricted area twos

I find the distribution in shot-types to be more interesting than the actual results. In 17 attempts, Dug essentially had to take other twos (Brian is somewhere cringing) 71% of the time. Functionally, this says he's too small to get all the way to the rim and finish. Particularly considering neither opponent had a legit rim-protecting center. 

McDaniel simply doesn't have the body type or strength that Frankie Collins possesses, so we can't expect him to do it as effectively, but I'd like to see Dug draw contact at a higher rate. That starts with jumping on-balance, with two legs and getting into the chest of the defender. In other words, embrace contact and get to the FT line. Far too often, McDaniel has wild attempts in the paint that are off-balance and have zero chance of going in. Dug is going to need a ton of improvement in this area at the college level. 

 

OFF-BALL DEFENSE

PVI utilized a funky zone for almost the entire game on Sunday and for significant stretches on Saturday, so an examination of off-ball defense is what we're left with for purposes of this evaluation. You can see the acceleration on full display in the first possession of the clip above. Dug gets beat on a jab step and is badly out of position but quickly recovers to deflect the kickout to the corner.

The rest of the possessions have a theme. McDaniel dies on screens and generally gets lost off the ball. This is an effort and awareness issue. In fairness, off-ball defense is something most HS prospects struggle with so I'm not going to overstate the issue.

 

TURNOVERS

Dug isn't a huge TO risk, but he does turn the ball over like any high-volume point guard. His inherent style of play, fast pace with passes in tight windows, means this is the cost of doing business. Some of his turnovers are a natural consequence of defenses not respecting his scoring ability. Opposing bigs are dropping back against ballscreens and sitting in passing lanes, basically daring him to attempt a layup or floater. 

 

PROJECTION/FIT AT MICHIGAN

Early Impact or Not?

Assuming Michigan has Frankie Collins for a few more years, McDaniel has the feel of a developmental project that isn't likely to be an impact rotational player until he's a junior. Dug doesn't bring anything additional to the table in relation to Collins right now and is lagging behind from a physical perspective. Additionally, he's not versatile enough to play off-ball, so McDaniel is exclusively a point guard for the Wolverines. I'd expect spot duty as a freshman (perhaps a redshirt depending on Bufkin/Zeb) and limited action in year two before breaking through as a guy that plays 15+ minutes per game as a junior. That's ideal for the team, as it would give Dug time to make physical gains and improve his jumper. 

 

Will He Be A Good Jumpshooter?

From a percentage standpoint, probably not. But that doesn't mean he can't be effective. Because of his size (or lack of) and play-style, McDaniel probably won't take many catch and shoot threes. Because of that we're looking at a kid that will take pull-ups (which aren't percentage friendly) off the bounce. Coach Howard just needs him to hit those shot attempts at a clip that prevents the opposition from going under screens so that his playmaking can be optimized. That probably looks like 31-35% from distance with some midrange jumpers sprinkled in. 

 

Will The Playmaking Translate In The B10?

Yes. The Wolverines have made a living on undersized PGs with great shot-creation ability for others. Simpson, Walton and even Jones to a certain extent are all excellent in terms of playmaking for the team. Dug's passing chops are absolutely legit. It has been consistent regardless of competition level/size/athleticism and I expect that continue in Ann Arbor. Spatial awareness cannot be taught and McDaniel possesses that trait in a way that very few other HS prospects do. 

 

What About The Defensive End?

McDaniel is a considerable upgrade in terms of agility + speed when compared to Jones/Smith/Brooks. And with that he's better equipped to stay in front of the average guards in the B10. He embraces on-ball defense and I'm guessing that is a big part of the appeal for Juwan Howard. He also has active hands and will jump passing lanes for deflections + turnovers.

But there are inherent limitations with 5'9 guards that simply can't be overcome. Against bigger guards (think Jaden Ivey/Ayo Dosunmu types) Dug is likely to struggle considering he's giving up 5-7 inches and 25-30 pounds. He's going to be bullied occasionally on straight line drives and bigger guards are going to shoot over him. 

I do like the potential here in terms of applying full-court pressure. McDaniel has some Russ Smith (Louisville) qualities with his combination of speed + low center of gravity that can make life hell for ballhandlers as a change of pace in spurts. 

 

Will The Finishing Be Adequate?

That's a no for me. Dug is already undersized in terms of size/length/mass in addition to being a finesse finisher that looks to avoid contact. Sub 6-footers are rarely good finishers in the B10 and we're talking about a kid that is 5'10 at best and no more than 160 pounds. He's simply not going to find much success against guys that are literally a full foot taller with a 70-80 pound weight advantage.

What we want is Dug to be such a passing threat once he gets two feet in the paint that opposing bigs sag back to deter the dumpoff pass and that gives McDaniel the necessary space to get off a clean floater. So the best possible outcome here is for the coaching staff to help McDaniel develop a legit floater that is on-balance while getting him to jump into the defender's chest to occasionally force fouls.