Tune in next week when Wyoming pitches Benny on their Great Lakes [David Nasternack]

Friday Recruiting Breaks Down Turkey Jive Comment Count

Seth October 23rd, 2020 at 7:10 AM

This is my last round on crootin, as Ace will take over during the season and I can go back to caring about the players on the field (for other teams). There's a 2021 recruiting board and a 2022 recruiting board I left as well. Use in good health.

Over the last 8 months I've learned a lot about recruiting. I also learned being a recruit coveted by coaches around the country/region is much like being a swing voter when every politician on the ballot has your phone number.

In the process I have discovered five main themes that candidates running against Michigan will use in their negative campaigns, and you can usually tell the source from the type.

  • A: Those coaches will be gone in a year. Whenever Michigan's doing well, Harbaugh's a candidate for every NFL opening and Brown's ready to fulfill his lifelong dream of becoming the head coach of UConn. If Michigan's down, Harbaugh's getting fired and Brown's off to be the head coach of a high school in Chester's Mill, Maine.
  • B: Michigan will never beat Ohio State. One time I literally saw Michigan end a game with more points than Ohio State, and they still didn't beat Ohio State, so this one's pretty on the nose.
  • C: It's so cold up there that your boogers will freeze inside your nose and if you don't rub really hard and fast the frozen boogers will grow up your nasal canal and cause brain damage. You'd be amazed how many sunbelt kids come on a visit and are like "This is actually really nice," either because as elite athletes they're putting out so many BTUs that it's never less than 60℉ around them, or because it's October and actually 60℉.
  • D: Michigan doesn't have any love for Michigan. This is a complaint heard mostly from some metro-Detroit high school coaches who are never pleased that Michigan recruits out-of-state, and from some players who have to go to some second-rate program nobody cares about like Kentucky or Michigan State because Michigan had eyes for some Florida speedster.
  • E: Ann Arbor is Murder Capital, USA. "You're not from around there, so you don't know how rough it is in and around Detroit. Have you seen Robocop? Do you think your son would be safe there?" –Notre Dame, really.

I now understand why so many recruits respond to follow-up polling with "I just want to get it over with and focus on the season."

So let's do it.

[After the JUMP: Benny moves it back, McBurrows moving up?, a cornerback from distance]

Normally when I use stuff from the paid sites I share a tiny bit or some title information only, but I'm going to have to make an exception with a bit from Rivals's EJ Holland's recent ITF($) because the longest-running recruiting plotline that only I care about is close to coming to fruition:

[Branden Jennings' commitment] doesn't not mean the Wolverines won't continue to pursue Indiana athlete pledge Maurice Freeman. I was originally told that the Freeman offer was for a general linebacker spot. After more evaluation, Michigan likes Freeman as a Viper/Jumbo Safety. A Jennings commitment would have no affect on Freeman. He is a take for the Wolverines at this time. How realistic is a flip? Well, Freeman has never visited, but he is not enrolling early, and there is definitely interest there. I think it's a very realistic flip situation.

/does a flip.

In recruiting not about a 3-star viper I'm obsessed with, that link has some pretty good news about a pretty good shot at a pretty damn important pretty good cornerback($) in the 2021 class.

BENNY MOVES IT BACK AGAIN

After suddenly moving up his commitment timeline last week, MI 4* DT Rayshaun Benny has moved his decision back until after the season, citing focus on the season and playoffs($). (Oak Park is 0-5 but all teams in Michigan are eligible this year and he's just getting back from an injury.) Benny originally planned to take his time and commit in the winter, but with visits off he said last week there's nothing more to learn and gave schools until this Sunday to make their final pitches. Now it's pushed back to December again as he mulls them.

Each time it seems those things are just somebody else burning their jet fuel to catch the pace car. Last week it was Michigan State talking NIL. This week it's Kentucky taking trash about in-state recruiting($) that has various people worried about the usual things Michigan fans worry about. The source for both seems to be Wildcats commit Maxwell Hairston from West Bloomfield, who convinced the Cats 247 guy the Wildcats are in it($) because "Benny recently had a good, long conversation with his former teammate Justin Rogers." He told Rivals' Austin Fox something far more worrisome($). Holland said afterwards he's a bit concerned Benny buys it($) and the Rivals roundtable was all over the place. All sources agree the nature of this talk was Type D.

One of our most useful tea leaves for a player's true intentions is which media he and his family are talking to. With Benny, we're hearing about MSU's pitch because Benny told Sam Webb about it, hearing about new doubts because he told Austin Fox about it, and we're hearing about Kentucky's "we're more Michigan than Michigan" approach third-hand from a Kentucky commit. It's never a good sign to be the team that leads for ever and ever and can't seal it. The consensus still appears to be Michigan, and that it was probably better to have a commitment on October 25th than wait around while other schools in his finalist list lob Type A or B aspersions.

OTHER DT OPTIONS? If Michigan misses on Benny or NJ 4* George Rooks, who closed down his recruitment for football season, there aren't many more options. One who's been on the board forever is LSU soft commit Anthony Hundley, who's at IMG with Crippen and McCarthy. EJ Holland recently shared there may be some hurdles($) but that seems like the next place to look if things turn south (or north). CMU commit Pius Odjugo is 6'3/324 and local (River Rouge), but told Lorenz he hasn't heard from Michigan in a long time($) and nothing from Odjugo's 2020 season seems likely to change that.

FLORIDA PIPELINE CON'T.

Sam Webb and Brice Marich discussed the potential fallout of the Branden Jennings commit on the rest of the class in their latest podcast. The short version is the Jennings is so versatile it doesn't scare them. It might even help steady the wobbly commitment of FL 4* Jaydon Hood, who's a very different kind of player and might like having another Florida guy in the class.

Speaking of Hood, Sam said the athletic LB is struggling with the transition to Aquinas as he works to get the scheme down, but physically still reminds him of Kalel Mullings. Hood is "solid" to Michigan but still planning to take visits after the new year; if the dead period gets extended again that can't happen, which actually sucks for Michigan because he hasn't visited here still.

There's some disagreement between the sites whether Jennings would move FSU commit Omarion Cooper. Marich said the two know each other but don't really know each other. EJ Holland said "the two actually talk often"($) and more. Next to Michigan's full-staff effort, Jennings jumping into the recruitment of Cooper is probably a drop in the bucket either way. Marich called Cooper "a three-point shot" since getting him on campus is a big challenge. Also FSU just won a huge game against then #5 UNC. Also also Michigan isn't the only school recruiting him away from FSU now($) says Holland.

Sam also saw commit Ja'Den McBurrows, whose hips/speed are LEGIT, and whose pick turned the tide of the game, reminds Sam of Jourdan/Vert (pre-hamstring)/Long, except none of those guys hit like McBurrows. He's 100% locked into Michigan, which is good because he too hasn't visited. Sam wrote up his thoughts on the game and all but begged Michigan to jump on the 2023 WR superstar on the other team($). 247 Miami (YTM) guy Gaby Urrutia was also at the game and also noticed the big plays($):

The Michigan commit I did come away impressed with was three-star cornerback Ja'Den McBurrows. I thought he showed some pretty sharp instincts and coverage skills. He picked off two passes and one should have gone for a touchdown, but a penalty away from the ball wiped the score off the board.

The low-3* is due for a rankings upgrade says Ivins($).

Sam also shared that McBurrows and Hood insisted they add 4.5* DE Dallas Turner to the photo "because he's going to Michigan!" Sam says Turner was "a beast" in that game but there doesn't seem to be much hope($) of flipping Bama's #5 commit beyond the fact that two teammates are working him.

WE'RE GETTING THE BAND TOGETHER

Official visits can't officially happen, but a group of Michigan recruits, led by JJ McCarthy of course, have been planning to get together here and watch a game together. Dates have fluctuated as they worked out how various important targets (e.g. 2022 CB Domani Jackson) can fit it in their schedules($, info in title), and it looks like it's going to be the Wisconsin game. The big news from this is 2021 4.5* CB Ceyair Wright and his family are planning to be on campus($), reports 247's Greg Biggens and Holland($). Both Jackson and Wright are friends with freshman Darion Green-Warren from their 7v7 program.

I've been calling Wright one of those California corners (Leon Hall, David Long et al.) Michigan works on quietly for an entire cycle, gets on campus, and yoinks at the end. Without a visit I think everyone, including me, was giving up hope, and when Wright announced an Army Game commitment date the predictions flew in for USC, where he's visited numerous times.

The Army Game was canceled by the way, but they're still going to broadcast a bunch of commitments. Anyway, now there's hope.

I got questioned on CB recruiting in last week's post:

Why aren't top flight 2021 CB recruits just sprinting to Ann Arbor right now? CB depth is worrisome.

And then gave a long answer that people were like "uh, why didn't you put it in the roundup?" So here you go, junkies. Not like there are enough words on this blog already today:

Ohio State is selling "We'll make you Jeff Okudah" even though Ohio State didn't do anything to Okudah, and Michigan's impressive string of small corners who put up ridiculous numbers with much better technique keep falling to the 3rd round because they're small. Michigan also keeps losing that Game, and cornerback is one of those positions where natural talent and size are most of the mix. So the top guys are the top guys, and go where they're going to get the most rings, or stay close to home where their family can come see them play (especially since COVID). High schoolers always think they're going to start.

All that said, it's been a bad time for Michigan to get elite corners. When they cast out offers for 2020 the only elite guy who was giving Michigan a look was Tony Grimes, and he quickly and succinctly moved on (he told Sam Webb flat out he's not going to Michigan). It took an incredible amount of work to get Darion Green-Warren after starting early and taking the entire cycle.

The 2021 cycle was similar. There were few local options and none of them really eye-popping; Penn State did a great job of prioritizing the King twins from Cass Tech, and Max Hairston of West Bloomfield wasn't a take.

Michigan was in very early on Jordan Hancock of North Gwinnett but he blew up into a 5* and chose Ohio State over Clemson/Bama. The next guy on their board is Ceyair Wright and Michigan's going to keep trying but without visits how are they selling a Cali kid on their B school when USC can sell him on their film school? Avante Dickerson was Nebraska's to lose until he was lost to Minnesota, but I don't think Michigan had any connections, and he has family in Minneapolis and is from Nebraska. RB/CB ATH Prophet Brown always seemed to have Michigan third behind Oklahoma and USC; Michigan tried the RB angle but when he realized he was a CB he committed to USC. Those are all the elites who were interested in a down year for CBs nationally.

Meanwhile Michigan had guys they ID'd early as Dudes—Ja'Den McBorrows is one—but they're not the only people good at scouting and a lot of those guys fell off the table. Tyreek Chappell got really into Texas A&M out of nowhere (similar story with PA S Donovan McMillon, whom Michigan was on first but he blew up and got SEC eyes). Then there's Omarion Cooper, and I sense if official visits were allowed he'd be in the class by now, but they're stuck working it from afar. Michigan also liked CB/S Ryan Barnes but he chose Notre Dame in a close battle. They also really liked AL 3* Kamari Lassiter but he's got Clemson after him and is an Auburn local so Michigan's out.

They're in WAY better shape to start for 2022. 5* Domani Jackson loves them, 5* Will Johnson is a legacy and local, though Ohio State is selling their bullshit again. NJ 4.5* Jaeden Gould looks like a future commit. Larry Turner-Gooden is Zordich family and could play CB or be Peppers, and we're leading for Bishop-Gorman's Fabian Ross. Those are all guys on the Jourdan Lewis+ line. Under it they are in early on Myles Pollard from Tennessee before anybody else.

A COACH QUOTE ON LOUIS HANSEN

The Massachusetts TE commit of the year can't produce any game film with his league shut down but they did have a recent New England camp that he won. Rivals has the video if watching 260-pound giants abuse Massachusetts kids on a field with soccer goals and a barn is your thing:

Via Chris Balas's recent ITF($) Hansen has the Erick All factor:

“Most of what we’ve done with him is on the receiving side, and he’s a total weapon and a mismatch because of how well he catches,” Burke said. “A quarterback threw a ball the other day, it was thrown behind him, up high. It was not a great ball, and he caught it. And the QB was like, ‘No one should be able to catch that ball.’ It’s unbelievable, some of the catches that he can make. I think that’s one of the things that really sets him apart from other tight ends.”

The jump has another 2900 words of current insider talk (including nice things about current cornerbacks), recruiting, by the way.

2022 DEFENSIVE TACKLE OFFERS HOW ARE YOU?

EJ Holland got up to Bay City to see Michigan's commit Alex VanSumeren, and dumped a scouting report that seems like it's mostly responding to a guy on his message board wondering if AVS is a "dirty" player($):

He is mean, and he plays angry, but I did not see him do anything dirty during my time out in Bay City. Yes, he rag dolled the opposing quarterback even though he didn't have the ball, but it was a read option. I didn't see anything wrong with it.

Football, everybody! AVS is also fielding offers from Alabama, PSU, Stanford, and MSU, and told Holland he plans to take visits($) though he's "not a recruit." That he's blowing up is good; that Michigan could lose him if they have a sucky year is bad news.

Michigan might have a legit shot for 4.5* AL DE/DT Justice Finkley, who has all the SEC offers. Finkley personally asked Marich to come down and see him, and Finkley's parents shared academics will be a big deal($) for a guy who wants to be a neurosurgeon, mentioned Myron Rolle. He's also been to Michigan twice—for OSU last year and in 2016 for the Colorado game with his uncle, a huge Michigan fan.

They also have a good shot at least one of two DT prospects they're targeting in Indiana. 4* Joe Strickland, who seems like the best bet, recently had a fly-by visit($) that mom liked a lot too($). His one crystal ball is to Notre Dame but that's just Tom Loy. 4.5* Caden Curry, who's the top-ranked player in the state, said he's hearing from Michigan a lot ($, info in title), and might get up for a visit soon. Both are build-a-bears: Strickland is 6'4"/245 right now, and Curry is currently listed at 6'4"/240.

MO 4* Tyson Ford blew up at the UC Elite Camp in Columbus this summer but Michigan is just now getting involved($). They also offered($, info in title) MO 3* DT Marquis Gracial, whom you'll be happy to hear is already 295 pounds. Michigan is evaluating($, info title) AZ 3* Zac Swanson.

AS LONG AS I'M DOING THIS THE FALCON GETS HIS OWN SECTION

The guy from my high school, MI 4* ATH Jaden Mangham, seems to be a priority at wide receiver ($, info title).

WERE THEY EVEN ALIVE LAST MARCH?

Sam says remember the name of Brandon Innis, the #1 receiver in the 2023 class, who's at Aquinas and impressed Sam on the field. Michigan was the first visit($) for MO DE Samuel M'Pemba, who is 247's #1 WDE in the cycle.

ETC.

Lorenz has free commitment overviews up on commits Giovanni El-Hadi, Xavier Worthy, Cristian Dixon, Tyler McLaurin, Junior Colson. El-Hadi is playing defense this year($) as well. TE commit Louis Hansen was MVP at the New England Camp ($, info title). Tavierre Dunlap had another 10+ YPC on 20+ carries game. 2022 RB Arlen Harris expects to commit this fall($), is basically down to Iowa and Michigan. Lorenz visited with top 2022 LB target Jaylen Sneed. OSU coming($) for 5* CA CB Domani Jackson, who then immediately planned an unofficial($, info title) to Michigan for the Wisconsin game. IA 4* DT Hunter Deyo is interested in Michigan, doesn't have an offer yet($). Michigan is targeting AL 6'2"/180 3* ATH Omari Kelly at receiver($). GA 3* TE target Oscar Delp got his offer($), might blow up soon($). DE commit Quintin Somerville on the (now-canceled) Army Bowl.

Comments

Wolverine 73

October 23rd, 2020 at 7:29 AM ^

So recruiting is like politics?  You get inundated with messages from the candidates, they talk trash about each other, and you can’t wait for it to end so you can get on with your life?  Great fun!

AC1997

October 23rd, 2020 at 8:57 AM ^

What a world we live in where you can get far in life by tearing down your opponent and saying bad things, even lies, about them rather than promoting yourself and why you are the right choice.  I'm sure this shit has been going on forever in recruiting but to me it just reveals the truth about who's saying it.  If my son gets recruited in a few years by schools and they spend most of their time bashing other schools I think that will tell me all I need to know.  

JonnyHintz

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^

I had an interesting conversation with someone campaigning for their candidate the other day. Absolutely tore the opposition apart with some valid points, some half truths, and some lies. The look on their face and the loss of words was priceless when I responded:

”Well you’ve done a good job convincing me not to vote for that guy, but you haven’t said anything to convince me to vote for your candidate.” 

Seth

October 23rd, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^

Mike Martin started his recruitment thinking he was going to Michigan but really started to waver when Carr retired and there were some early negative reactions to Rich Rod around him. He started taking visits elsewhere, but every place he went--ND, MSU, OSU, PSU--made bashing Michigan a big part of their pitch. He said that is what solidified him to Michigan because if all the other schools felt they needed to tell him why he shouldn't go to Michigan it said they knew there were many valid reasons why he should. Michigan only talked about Michigan.

dragonchild

October 23rd, 2020 at 7:36 AM ^

I mean, here's the thing, kids. . . No, Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State in a while.  If you go to OSU, you'll probably be part of. . . just another victory over Michigan.

If you're the guy that gets Michigan to break the streak, they will make a fucking statue of you in your honor.

dragonchild

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^

Strangely enough, not kids these days.

When I was a kid (a long time ago), athletes wanted to beat each other.  You wouldn't see a Steve Largent or Barry Sanders go to San Fransisco.  They wanted to beat the champs, become the champs, not hop on a bandwagon that had already cleared the way.  The ones that did, usually didn't start ring-chasing until they were washed up, and even if they succeeded, they often stained their careers that way.

TBH it was weird to me then.  Who wouldn't make the smart move?  And then Kevin Durant went to Golden State at the height of his career to earn the most unheralded pro trophy in history.  Literally nobody thinks that was a feat.  The ring he's wearing might as well be made of lead.  Now I understand.

OSU is probably going to win a natty soon, and there'll be a party, but no one's the hero on a team that's loaded top-to-bottom with five-stars beating top-15 teams by 30-point margins.  OTOH we're still watching clips of Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson.

ca_prophet

October 23rd, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^

I'm always of two minds about that.  On the one hand, rings are a requirement for accolades at the highest level of your sport.  There is a ceiling for how high Stockton and Malone can be ranked because of that lack.  Ernie Banks was shackled to the Cubs teams.  Marino is the champion of "greatest QB to never win a Super Bowl".  Heck, the irrational Manning-Brady arguments often boiled down to "ridiculous statistics in the regular season" vs. "lookit all these rings, baby!"  It's a mindset around championships that some players and fans hold dear, and if that's you, of course you do what you have to do to get that ring.

On the other hand, Lebron James lifting that Cavaliers team to an NBA championship over a dominant Warriors squad, to bring his hometown their first title in any major sport in 50+ years?  That's a historic moment.  The Red Sox beating the Yankees after being down 3-0 (the first team to win a best of 7 after being down 3-0 to boot), then winning their first World Series in 86 years?  Even Johnny Damon going to the Yankees as a free agent afterwards was largely ignored with a "yeah, it's just business and we'll always have 2004" by an otherwise rabid fanbase.

 

AC1997

October 23rd, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^

I felt like that too - he looked "plodding" and then you see he's still pulling away from these smaller athletes and makes all of those catches.  In some cases the smaller guy is all over him too.  Frankly, I want to know who the QBs were throwing the passes because some of them were flat out perfect.  

 

Rabbit21

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:22 AM ^

I haven't looked at the video, but sometimes there are kids who are long striders who take a little time to get up to top speed.  My son is the same way, at the start of a footrace he'll be a length or two behind the other kids, but by the time they're at 30 or 40 yards he has most of them beat, it's been a useful trick when he plays defensive end and chases down plays from the backside. 

As for Hansen, taking time to get to top speed is not necessarily the greatest football skill for D1, but if he can get in the open field....

Brian Griese

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^

After watching the 2017 season and knowing how that was going to play out in the 2018 recruiting class, I made an effort to scale back how much I read/watched about recruits and I can tell you it’s been great for the psyche. I enjoy the write-ups this site does after they commit and enroll but I have done my best not to care until that happens. Recruit-speak combined with sunshine blowing of players Michigan was interested in/signed was enough for me to mostly tap-out. 

NFG

October 23rd, 2020 at 8:51 AM ^

AVS commitment sticking has a lot to do with BVS's success and overall experience with the coaches. This should not surprise anyone. 

MGoNukeE

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^

Can we update the Recruiting FAQ to translate the new lingo recruits are saying? For example:

"Early playing time matters to me." --> "I want to go to the playoff."
"Academics matter to me." --> "I want to go to the playoff."
"I want to play in warm weather." --> "I want to go to the playoff."
"I want to play in the NFL." --> "I want to go to the playoff."

ak47

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^

So the reason CB recruiting is going poorly is because the staff is losing recruiting battles.

Also jesus the DT recruiting is absolutely pathetic

ak47

October 23rd, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^

The problem with that argument is they were in a position to lose those battles because they are losing on the field. A guy going from the south to ohio state isn't a guy Michigan is destined to lose, its a recruiting battle they lost because they couldn't convince the recruit we have a chance to beat ohio state. That isn't some structural issue (like a recruit wanting to stay close to home).

It also just listed straight up recruiting battle loses to ND and PSU, including for individuals out of Detroit, which are just straight recruiting losses. Its clear Michigan has an incredibly mediocre staff for recruiting. That is the structural issue.

Wallaby Court

October 23rd, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^

So I went back over Seth's list of 2020 and 2021 CB options and added their home state and final destinations:

  • Tony Grimes (VA) - North Carolina
  • Kalen King (MI) - Penn State
  • Jordan Hancock (GA) - Ohio State
  • Ceyair Wright (CA) - USC
  • Avante Dickerson (NE) - Minnesota
  • Prophet Brown (CA) - USC
  • Tyreek Chappell (PA) - Texas A&M
  • Omarion Cooper (FL) - Florida State
  • Ryan Barnes (MD) - Notre Dame 
  • Kamari Lassiter (AL) - Georgia

Looking at those options, I see three types of result. Bold hurts the most. Having a coveted prospect in your recruiting footprint commit to a conference rival is a loss, regardless of external circumstances. Italics hurt, but a little less. Those are all out-of-state prospects who evidently wanted to leave home, but headed somewhere else.

Of the ten prospects listed, Michigan suffered one loss that really hurt and three head-to-head recruiting losses. You can fairly fault Michigan for those, though I would want to look at whole recruiting picture for a fairer view.* The other six look like valiant rearguard actions that never stood a chance.

*Were these losses part of a larger trend, or just concentrated at a position of need?

JonnyHintz

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^

When you’re recruiting against teams that go to the playoffs every year and send multiple guys to the NFL in the first/second round, you’re going to lose a few recruiting battles. That’s the reality of the current college football landscape. 
 

Doesn’t matter how good you or your staff is at recruiting. When Alabama, OSU or Clemson come calling, the kids are going to listen. And the fact of the matter is, they have a lot more to sell than we do at this point. Add in other caveats like trying to pull a kid across the country without being able to visit on top of that, and it only makes it more difficult. 

dragonchild

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:47 AM ^

No, it's the nature of the game right now.  Modern offenses will stress all kind of positions, including safety and linebacker.  But any hope of stopping them means you need talent at DT and CB.  You can almost paper over everything else if you have that, and nothing else will matter if you don't.  Remember 2016, the OSU game we basically won except that it was 14 vs. 11?  Michigan had elite DTs and CBs.  In the latest blowouts, Michigan had holes there.

So every program in the country is scrambling for the same guys, and the truly elite ones will never be plentiful, which makes competing for them a noisome muckfest.  Michigan's going to have to Moneyball these positions again.

lsjtre

October 23rd, 2020 at 9:27 AM ^

It is wild these days in the world of recruiting, same as it ever was as we have learned from Seth and his pods about teams from the 00's and 10's...1900s that is 

NJGoBlue7

October 23rd, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^

Does it matter to a recruit if a school is their first offer or in early on them?  I don't remember hearing about a recruit commit because that school was their first offer.  Obviously getting a last minute offer may indicate you were a backup plan but is being first/early matter much?