recruiting is for gentlemen only

Ron Bellamy was such a good hire. [David Nasternak]

Now that we are coming up on the next recruiting dead period (the one implemented by the NCAA because poor SEC coaches didn’t think it fair that Jim Harbaugh wants to coach football during their vacations), I figure it’s a good time to take a look at the state of the 2022 class, and Michigan recruiting in general. Scroll down under the board if you've been following along already and just want to read the editorial. The top of this post is for the people who only want to check in infrequently.

State of the Class

While lazy “hot seat” articles continue to lead with photos of Harbaugh, he and his staff are putting together a top-ten class with considerable upside.

In the last four weeks Michigan has added a high-floor pocket QB in CA 3.5* Jayden Denegal, one of their top RB prospects in SC 3.5* CJ Stokes, 3.5* Idaho flex TE Colston Loveland, 3.5* Quebecois OT Alessandro Lorenzetti, an Uche-like sleeper in CA 3* Kevonte Henry, new staff edge faves 4* Mario Eugenio and 3* Micah Pollard, 3* Belleville RB-turned-hybrid LB Aaron Alexander, and their top (presently realistic) remaining cornerback target, TN 3.5* Myles Pollard.

Before that they had two receivers pledged, silky smooth IL 4* Tyler Morris, a long-term Gattis target who might have been gunning for Bama/OSU before an injury locked him into his current status, and leapy MI 4* Tay’shawn Trent. The class is anchored by MI 5* legacy CB Will Johnson, seems set to hold onto Linguist’s TN 4* nickel Kody Jones, and carries over a pair of low 3*s from before the coaching makeover in MI DT Davonte Miles and CO OG Connor Jones.

All of the commits of the last month except Denegal (falling) and Alexander (an un-scouted recent positional convert) have been shooting up the rankings. In a cycle when there’s been a lot fewer opportunities than normal for late-emerging athletes to change the consensus pecking order, Michigan seems to be trusting their own evaluations more than ever. Their evaluations have also led Michigan to spend some time in the lead for various rising prospects who disappeared as soon as they reached the level where Ohio State and Bama are willing to lift more than a finger, or the super baggy programs like Georgia, LSU, and A&M, and Texas are willing to make it rain.

As for the earlier Hellos, there have been rumblings at times that each one might not make it to the finish line. Will Johnson and Kody Jones were most wobbly when Linguist left, but both recruitments were shored up, with Jones taking longer to be sure than Johnson. Miles and Jones might have been provisional at times, but are reportedly doing whatever it is Michigan wanted to see to keep their spots. I think that’s why we keep getting reports from Jones’s trainer about how well he’s coming along, though as one of two commits in the class, he can’t be in that much danger. Miles showed up to a camp in June and was about where Michigan wanted him to be.

There are a couple more players who could be on the verge of committing. They’re expected to add an RB/WR ATH Dillon Bell sooner or later, and the current commits think Cass Tech DT Deone Walker, a huge DT or possibly OG prospect who used the Covid year to reshape his body, will be along after he gets to experience the process. He named a top five today.

The staff recently expanded their boards at OL and DT after missing on some top targets. Those misses do not include the five-stars—elite WA OT Josh Conerly Jr., and super-elite TN DT Walter Nolen. I think Conerly is still projected to go back to his original Washington commitment, but a decommitment means the guy is in play. As for Nolen, I think we’re waiting to see if he comes to Michigan’s BBQ at the Big House or Alabama’s BBQ at the smaller house, or Florida’s BBQ at the swamp-ass house, or chooses to spend the last weekend before the dead period in his own house. He’s visited all of his finalists. They scoured the recent camp circuit for receivers too but couldn’t find many with reciprocal interest at this late hour. I wouldn’t be surprised if they turn up a Ronnie Bell as senior film rolls in.

The current drama, set to unfold in the next few weeks, is what they’re doing at middle linebacker, as two of their three top prospects are close to announcing, one tertiary prospect seems ready to jump if either of the above don’t, and a spot will be saved for a top-tier guy they hope to pry out of Utah regardless. The sense is one of the two guys they’re waiting on is going to Texas, and the other one might be leaning that direction unless the distance is too great.

Safety has been a bumpier ride than expected as various names seemed close to going blue then didn’t. There are still plenty of balls in the air however so we’re far from panic. A surprisingly good season could put them back in play for one or two elites. A surprisingly bad one (like 5-7 with another loss to MSU) and things could unravel a bit. A catastrophic season that ends with “yep, gotta fire Harbaugh, now” could punch some big holes in it, but there’s some optimism that this class could be more resilient than the 2011 one. It’s in far, far better shape than Hoke’s 2015 class was at this point.

The Guys:

Icon Name Meaning
Sad Josh The genre of player with unrequited interest in Michigan. Unlikely to receive offers; most will eventually fade off the list and go to Duke or Michigan State or something.
Nefarious Eduardo Player is a longshot. Either they've declared someone else a leader publicly or popular opinion holds that they're likely to go to another school.
Data Either no opinion or Michigan is one of a fairly even group of chasing schools. Players in this category maintain no leader or change their leader frequently. The default category for players that we don't know much about yet.
Happy Teeth Players who have Michigan in a small leading group or have Michigan as a tenuous favorite. Should be regarded as a good shot, not a slam dunk.
Mr. Blue Player is either a verbal or is expected to be one sooner or later. Players with this designation are 65%+ to be Michigan commits.

The order is my interpretation of how likely they are to commit and how many recruiting points are being expended. Prep school or IMG players are listed with their home states and then either the state their new school's in or "IMG".

A Note on "Stars": These are a general (not exact) average of a player's status among the recruiting services.

A Note on Premium Info: No illicit sharing of said material will appear on this site. Players are listed with interested schools in their profiles; this information is public. Commitments are by definition public. Any assertions as to schools in the mix, decision dates, or leaders I will back up with links to the source of the information.

[After THE JUMP: The board, and frank talk about cheating and NIL]

Tune in next week when Wyoming pitches Benny on their Great Lakes [David Nasternack]

This is my last round on crootin, as Ace will take over during the season and I can go back to caring about the players on the field (for other teams). There's a 2021 recruiting board and a 2022 recruiting board I left as well. Use in good health.

Over the last 8 months I've learned a lot about recruiting. I also learned being a recruit coveted by coaches around the country/region is much like being a swing voter when every politician on the ballot has your phone number.

In the process I have discovered five main themes that candidates running against Michigan will use in their negative campaigns, and you can usually tell the source from the type.

  • A: Those coaches will be gone in a year. Whenever Michigan's doing well, Harbaugh's a candidate for every NFL opening and Brown's ready to fulfill his lifelong dream of becoming the head coach of UConn. If Michigan's down, Harbaugh's getting fired and Brown's off to be the head coach of a high school in Chester's Mill, Maine.
  • B: Michigan will never beat Ohio State. One time I literally saw Michigan end a game with more points than Ohio State, and they still didn't beat Ohio State, so this one's pretty on the nose.
  • C: It's so cold up there that your boogers will freeze inside your nose and if you don't rub really hard and fast the frozen boogers will grow up your nasal canal and cause brain damage. You'd be amazed how many sunbelt kids come on a visit and are like "This is actually really nice," either because as elite athletes they're putting out so many BTUs that it's never less than 60℉ around them, or because it's October and actually 60℉.
  • D: Michigan doesn't have any love for Michigan. This is a complaint heard mostly from some metro-Detroit high school coaches who are never pleased that Michigan recruits out-of-state, and from some players who have to go to some second-rate program nobody cares about like Kentucky or Michigan State because Michigan had eyes for some Florida speedster.
  • E: Ann Arbor is Murder Capital, USA. "You're not from around there, so you don't know how rough it is in and around Detroit. Have you seen Robocop? Do you think your son would be safe there?" –Notre Dame, really.

I now understand why so many recruits respond to follow-up polling with "I just want to get it over with and focus on the season."

So let's do it.

[After the JUMP: Benny moves it back, McBurrows moving up?, a cornerback from distance]

Remember when people were freaking out about the state of the recruiting class in mid-May while Ohio State stockpiled all the five-stars? Well I wondered what historical classes looked like at this point, and I have a database with most of that information, so I started compiling. Then we got a flood of commits and this article sat around for a month.

Since it would create a lot more work otherwise, and our last commit was 6/1, I'm going to split the difference and show what each class from 2004 to 2021 looked like as of the end of May. Let's hope this works:

Class of 2004

What art. What heart.

COMMITS BY END OF MAY, 2003:

  • 4* WR Morgan Trent (2/7)
  • 3.5* HB Mike Hart (5/3)

Yeah that was all the commits at this point: an OLSM speedster who'd ultimately move to defense, and a short running back Michigan almost didn't recruit who's (mostly erroneously) still remembered as a 3-star.

STATE OF THE BOARD:

They added a few more guys in June and July but that class didn't really start to build momentum until 5-star QB Chad Henne committed to Michigan in early August. National prospects didn't come around until after Michigan went to the Rose Bowl but that January was amazing: 4.12 DT/OL Alan Branch (1/3), 4.66 WR Doug Dutch (1/23), 4.76 DE Tim Jamison (1/29), and 4.53 WR Adrian Arrington (4.53) all came onboard a few weeks before signing day.

WHAT FANS ARE FREAKING ABOUT

Other schools are already getting commitments; why does Lloyd still wait for camps like it's the 1990s?

[After THE JUMP: everything is fine]