Resources: My charting, Ohio State game notes, Ohio State roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: Ohio State-Penn State last week obviously.

Personnel: My diagram:

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You will of course note that Ohio State gets first pick out of the guys they want from high school, and if that's not enough they can raid other teams. QB Justin Fields, #2 overall on the composite in 2018 and the eighth-highest ranked recruit in all of 24/7's database, was able to transfer immediately because Georgia didn't contest it (a UGA fan yelled racial slurs at a baseball game, so: yeah). You can argue if this was really the best thing for Ohio State since Joe Burrow left for LSU, but it's quite obviously not a bad thing. There was a dubious rumor going around about Fields's thumb, which he injured when fumbling on the goal line in the 1st quarter against Penn State. While he had two more fumbles in that game, they were from his other (throwing) hand. There was a scarier moment on OSU's last real snap when Fields appeared to roll his ankle, but he got up and was fine. In the unlikely event of someone other Fields going under center, West Virginia grad transfer Chris Chugunov is the #2 guy; most recently he was 5/14 and 4.4 YPA against Rutgers. It will be Fields.

You'll certainly remember RB JK Dobbins (1446 yards, 15 TDs, 6.6 YPC, +20.5/-8, –2 pass pro), who now leaves just a bare handful of carries for backup Master Teague (6.5 YPC), who's a bowling ball type.

Their best outside receiver, Chris Olave (+4/-1), is a shoulda-been-a-five-star version of Ronnie Bell whom Michigan wanted almost as badly as we want this game. Slot KJ Hill (469 yards, 9.2 YPT, 82% CR, 7 TDs, +5/-0 blocking) is the fastest guy in college football and had no business staying in college football after three years of siphoning Parris Campbell's snaps away. Not only is he getting far less usage in the Fields offense than last year's crossing route-a-thon, but his understudy Garrett Wilson (250 yards, 8.1 YPT, 68% CR), the 20th overall player in this year's composite, is KJ Hill'ing KJ Hill's snaps away. The difference: Hill's hands are the most reliable in the conference; Wilson will drop some routine things. You should be familiar with the outside starters: Austin Mack (234 yards, 8.7 YPT, 63% CR), who returned against Penn State from a broken foot, and tall leaper Binjamin Victor (480 yards, 12.3 YPT, 74% CR). Both are seniors who were just inside the composite top-100 four years ago. I know they got rid of Zach Smith but of all these guys only Olave seems to have a pro degree of complexity in his routes. The others just out-athlete everybody, which: fair enough.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

There are three ways to recognize the tight ends: 1) Michigan recruiting battles, 2) Terrible edge blocking, or 3) When there's a white guy lined up as a receiver. TE Luke Farrell (10.4 YPT, 57% CR, +2/-7, –1 pass pro) is mostly a Notre Dame-style flex guy, and sophomore TE Jeremy Ruckert (7.7 YPT, 73% CR, +2/-2, –2) is the same but can catch. I don't think they get much practice at pass pro, which became a problem when the tackles needed help against Yetur Gross-Matos.

Speaking of those tackles, I was star-removingly unimpressed by LT Thayer Munford (+6.5/-8, –6 pass protection), who was honorable mention on PFF's midseason All-American team, but fared far worse against YGM than, like, Jon Runyan. He earned his positives by using those long arms to turn out edge guys but struggled any time someone dove inside on him. That might be by design; with Justin Fields out there, you put your edge defender in a B gap at your own peril.

The whole OL was up and down, except the interior trio impressively gave up a total of one pressure versus Robert Windsor. That was from LG Jonah Jackson (+7/-10, –1), the grad transfer until recently known as that one good player on Rutgers. C Josh Myers (+6/-4.5) loses leverage at times but I predict he'll have a star the next two times I do this. RG Wyatt Davis (+5/-12) was the composite #24 in 2017 as a guard and you can see why when he executes a reach block, but he's got major targeting problems whenever it's not clear who or how he's blocking. RT Branden Bowen (+7/-4, –3) has returned from a year lost to injury and had a good game. Over the course of the season OSU has used 2018 #7 overall OT Nicholas Petit-Frere for either tackle, but he didn't appear in this game.

What gives me pause here is they're not bad in the way that a lot of previous Michigan opponents were. These aren't Spartan five-year starters still a few peanut butter sandwiches away from being able to keep Kwity Paye from tossing them into their QB's lap. OSU's linemen are all the perfect dimensions for their jobs, perfectly shaped, and athletic enough to have pro careers, but for various (mostly good) reasons their awareness scores are all in the 60s or 70s.

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread, similar to Indiana: a lot of 4-wide and empty formations from 11 personnel, and motion between them. Except where IU is passing with a few inside runs, Ohio State wants to run off the edges with Dobbins while terrifying you inside with Fields.

They weren't 100% out of the gun—there were six snaps from the pistol and four from under center. They also set up with unbalanced looks often. So if we're breaking it up I think the TEs and receivers' setups tell us more than where the quarterback started. Note "Y-off" is their standard formation with the tight end off the line of scrimmage, either a three-wide or twins. "Flex" means the TE is out as a receiver.

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Y-Off	Empty	Flex	Unbal		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (57)	63%	11%	12%	14%		2.72		16%	4%	14%	66%
Passing (28)	43%	36%	18%	4%		2.86		38%	4%	15%	42%
Total (85)	48	16	12	9		2.76		19	3	12	48

They got a lot of 3rd and 5s which is technically a passing down but not really for this team. What they liked to do in these situations was go empty, give Fields one quick pass read, and have him run if it's not there.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Zone, zone, zone, zone. When they did try a play with a puller—a Power C—they all looked so unpracticed at it that the blockdowns got squeezed through and the puller went a yard too deep.

Hurry it up or grind it out? They like to tempo more this year. What they like to do is hit you after a bad call that went in their favor (there were many—Ohio State consistently gets more ref help than any program in the country) or after a jump ball or something. They'll also go unbalanced in these situations to give you less time to figure out you're relieved from having to block one of their receivers. Day had a tempo drive scripted that they pulled out at the start of the second half. They also got to keep a critical drop by Binjamin Victor that hit the ground because OSU got to the line and ran a play before replay officials could decide to review it. Since they're not Michigan, the officials let it ride.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]):

Do we give out tens? I think Terrelle Pryor predates this feature and he's the exact comp, with Tim Tebow the next closest.

Those guys are all MAJOR run threats. Fields will regularly turn a play the defense won into an offensive success with his agility, and then getting him down is another three-yard process.

To me a ten is a guy who could legit play receiver or running back in the NFL; a Nine is dangerous enough, and well beyond anything Michigan has yet to face this season.

HenneChart: The thing is you can be a nine and be a terrifying quarterback. If you're a nine AND you can anticipate receivers and throw the ball anywhere on the field, you become one of the highest paid players in the history of college football.

Justin Fields	Good				Neutral			Bad					DSR
Opponent	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR
Penn State	3	10(1)	1		2	4		-	2	1x	-		82%

Yikes. This was the first game in Fields's career that he's thrown a pass in a competitive situation in the second half. He has something to do with that of course, but it was maddening to discover that he's pretty much just as effective in a pressure situation as when he's slinging it against a defense that's been doing all it can to keep with the running game. As a recruit it was noted how well he could just drop one in. With the kind of speed Ohio State has on the field, that's dangerous indeed.

That said, his reads were never that difficult. Only one time did he have to do something more NFL quarterback than spread-to-run quarterback. He did it.

Zook/Frames Janklin/Him Jarbaugh Factor: Surprisingly high. Day packed it in after a sack at the end of the first half when he still had timeouts and needed only 15 more yards to get within his kicker's range. He also punted on 4th and 2 from PSU territory.

He earns that back for correct behavior late in the game, when OSU had a 4th and 5 well within field goal territory and needed a first down to dent the clock beyond the reach of a comeback. They went for it.

Dangerman:

We've been over Fields by this point and you just saw KJ Hill dust a guy for the long touchdown. Fields has done wonders for JK Dobbins, the best Ohio State back since Ezekiel Elliott, and second-highest gainer in OSU history to Archie Griffin. A refresher: Dobbins is murder on your edge because he can cut and accelerate with more suddenness than you can react to:

Dynamic Penn State defenders looked like they were in slow-motion against this all day. Last year they made Dobbins their inside runner. This year with a dangerous run threat at quarterback they can't dive on Dobbins all day, and that's all the space this guy needs.

I also have to recognize the Michigan coaches were absolutely right to pursue Chris Olave like he was a five-star.

He's such a natural athlete that his cuts are made in Manninghamese.

Whatever Ohio State did to get this guy, we should do too.

OVERVIEW:

I want this one. Oh do I want this one. Every muscle fiber yanks back a little to say it. Every ribosome tremors with it. Every molecule hums with it. Every electron in my body whispers "Beat Ohio" as it whizzes past. And somehow, I'm certain Don Brown wants it more. Unfortunately our existence is an awful Buckeye kid's NCAA dynasty

You can tell it's a videogame because of how "Ryan Day" calls plays. One drive they'll be in an empty set and rotate through the empty set things he knows will succeed. Then out of halftime they'll do the three-wide tempo drive. When he gets bored he'll try the pistol outside zone play that he accidentally left in the custom playbook. When he needs to pass it's either four verts or stop routes under cornerbacks bailing for four verts. If he ever screws up or the computer starts to adjust to his strategy, he'll break a tackle or two with his create-a-player quarterback who's seven feet tall, 99'd out in every stat except awareness, and surrounded by the best talent save-scumming can acquire.

The thing is our kid isn't the most advanced strategist; RPS in this game was +12/-19, a massive comedown from the numbers I used to get from Efficiency Engineer Urban Meyer's offenses. But Day is like Urban in one respect: he likes to lean hard on the players who will give him a consistent advantage, and doesn't seem to trust anyone else. Of the 82 plays that made it past the snap, about 75% were asking Dobbins and Fields to do things with their legs. The rest were one- or two-read passes that were open before the second read, which was for Fields to use his legs. The game plans are simplistic and rational: we have the #1 overall recruit in his class, you have a walk-on linebacker, let's clear out everybody else and see how that goes:

You will recall this play from the Peach Bowl and Feleipe Franks. With Justin Fields it's a second base. Penn State did find ways to adjust, like having the DEs both dive inside, blitzing the MLB, or having the linebackers start wide and shifting one into the hole. Ohio State soaked in each response then had answers.

If you get into an RPS battle with these guys you'll get some long downs, but I can't remember an offense that was better at getting out of those. Second and 13 becomes 3rd and 7, and that becomes a first down, and they keep chugging along.

Everything just comes so easy to them that you find yourself doing dumb, obvious things to maybe punch them off the field. There wasn't ever a moment I thought "Oh, Ryan Day had that planned well," which is terrifying because he's by all accounts one of those guys who absolutely knows how to come up with those things.

The things you gamed up specifically will get you there a few times but then they hit you with the obvious response, and it's an absolute dagger. Penn State held it close because of fumbles (Dobbins had one, Fields three including one as he was about to score), which are usually random but might be relevant if Fields indeed is playing with a damaged thumb.

It's a very different feel than last year, when they were crossing-routing everybody and letting Hill and Campbell wrack up the yards. But it's just as simple, just as tailored to the incredible talent on hand, and likely just as ready to react to all the things Michigan's done this year as they were last time. Since they keep their 11 personnel on the field and keep spreading them along the width of it, the things a defense can actually do are rather limited.

You think back to 2017 and how Michigan did such a good job against JT Barrett and co., but that wasn't a huge X's and O's win; it was Mo Hurst and Gary and Winovich getting into the backfield. It's tempting to frame this as a titanic mind battle of Day vs. Dr. Blitz, but the way 2019 Ohio State plays offense it's really all going to come down to these individual matchups. Michigan's path to victory is Kwity and Hutchinson and Dwumfour and Kemp and Uche dominating zone blocks. Cam McGrone shutting off Dobbins on the edge. Dax Hill running step for step with KJ. Ambry and Lavert sticking on Olave. And Jordan Glasgow showing one of the fiveiest five-stars to ever flip a blue chip how little that means against a member of the Blessed Order of St. Kovacs. In their own stadium, as cantankerous over last year's result as any Wolverines in half a century, it's possible these guys can play of their minds.

Of course if that's happening, the Ohio State kid could just hit reset and start again. Maybe he's getting bored?