jeremy ruckert

Olave has a new number these days, but he's still hanging TDs on the B1G [Patrick Barron]

Welllllllll it's #HateWeek everybody and that means it's time to examine the most fearsome unit in America, the Ohio State offense. As it stands presently, the OSU offense is a mindboggling product that can rip a defense to shreds by having the best talent of any offense in the country, which is perfectly calibrated to fit its scheme. The numbers are staggering: 559.5 yards per game and 47.2 points per game. 7.9 yards per play, a full 0.7 yards better than the next best team. They just hung 56 points on the only team that Michigan has lost to this season, including seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions in that game. Three future first-round NFL receivers. Two probable first-round NFL offensive tackles. A Heisman candidate at QB. Two running backs who average >7 yards per carry. Their SP+ offensive rating is 47.2, a full 4.4 points better than #2 Alabama and starting to challenge 2019 LSU as perhaps the greatest offense of the analytics era. How the f*** do you beat these guys? 

Let's try our best to examine a path to keeping the offense in the yard, while also pointing out the many places this sociopathic grizzly bear wielding a flamethrower could completely incinerate your defense. 

The Film: There are some roadmaps to stopping OSU's offense, between Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon, three teams that all kept OSU under 30 points on offense (the Buckeyes notched a defensive TD against PSU to get over 30). That said, it would also be wildly unfair to use just one of those games, because it would depict a more neutered Buckeye offense and not the one that has obliterated most opposing defenses it has faced. Normally I stick to just one game, but for this column, since it's in preparation for the biggest game of the season, I said "why not just go crazy with it?": 

So, while I only graded the PSU game, I'm going to draw upon tape from the Michigan State game as a way to show the Buckeye offense in much more dangerous light, while also incorporating clips from a number of other games. This will be the longest and most detailed FFFF of the season, but that's what a week with these stakes calls for, eh? 

Personnel:



[Seth note: I previously sent Alex a version of this with Turner starred and Ojabo shielded before I got too deep into the defensive UFR. Turner...did not make it. Ojabo is a 1st rounder on his potential but this game emphasized a major hole in his game currently, and I didn't feel it was right to put him on the level the other shields on this graphic are playing at right now.] 

PAIN. 

CJ Stroud has stepped into the QB job vacated by Justin Fields and has put together a dominant season, delivering very good balls to the wide receiver group that is almost always open. His utter obliteration of Michigan State last week (32/35 for 432 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (!!!!!!!!!)) has made him the Vegas favorite for the Heisman, and we will certainly discuss him at length later in the piece. Stroud never comes off the field unless the game is over, but I still decided to include Kyle McCord on the chart because I was reminded that each of the last three Michigan-Ohio State meetings have featured the backup QB on the field for some (non-garbage time) stretch of the game for Ohio State. McCord is only a true freshman and he has looked like one this season. 

The Buckeyes entered the season with Miyan Williams and Master Teague III sharing the starting responsibilities but as your author predicted in August, true freshman TreVeyon Henderson ascended to the starting job rather quickly. He's been electric as the lead back, with 14 TDs and 1098 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC, taking the holes his offensive line gives him and turning them into home runs with the blazing speed that his 5* status conveys. Williams and Teague do not have Henderson's raw tools and that's why he's become the JK Dobbins to their Mike Weber. Henderson does play a role in the passing game, having hauled in 18 catches for 231 yards and three additional scores on the season. 

It will take years of hindsight and an examination of how these players end up in the NFL to really determine whether this is the best NCAA wide receiver group of all-time, but boy it feels like it has a chance. LSU's 2019 group of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were legendary, but this is a fully three-headed monster that also has impeccable depth. Chris Olave has been terrorizing the B1G for years and passed up a first round draft slot to return to Columbus so he could rescue his grandmother who was locked in Ryan Day's basement. Olave leads the receiving corps in TDs, but trails in the other statistical categories to Garrett Wilson, the lightning fast outside receiver who torched Michigan as a true freshman in 2019, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a sophomore slot type who Michigan has yet to see. Both Wilson and JSN were 5* recruits who have accented Olave to put together this unstoppable tank. Olave and Wilson will be first rounders in April (unless Day also abducts Wilson's grandma) and JSN seems to be a lock to be one in April 2023 already. 

Those three have combined for 73% of OSU's pass yardage this season, but the remaining 27% is scattered between a litany of other talented options, including the next wave of guys who will be gut-punching the B1G for the next several years. That includes Emeka Egbuka, a true freshman who was the nation's #10 overall recruit this spring (and is also the team's kick returner), Marvin Harrison Jr., son of that Marvin Harrison and a top 100 recruit himself, and Julian Fleming, who was the nation's #3 overall recruit last spring. The amount of weapons that Ohio State has at the skill positions is so disturbing that the FBI ought to have put the team on the terror watchlist by now. 

If there's one area that isn't quite up to snuff with the rest of the team, it's tight end. Jeremy Ruckert was *surprise* a top 50 recruit himself (and a Michigan target) once upon a time, but he's become only alright. A decent receiving option but nothing to write home about (I know that me saying that means he will have 200 yards on Saturday). The backup TEs include Cade Stover, who comes on as more of a blocker in two TE sets, and then half-TE, half-FB Mitch Rossi, who actually started his NCAA career as a linebacker. Rossi comes on in the situational moments when OSU goes under center. 

The offensive line is anchored by the tackle positions, where the Buckeyes could have both OTs get drafted in the top 45 picks this spring. That tandem is former 5* (and Michigan target) LT Nicholas Petit-Frere, as well as mountainous (6'8, 360) RT Dawand Jones, who both possess sparkling PFF grades and have provided clean pockets for Stroud all year long. The guards are not as highly thought of from an NFL standpoint but have been good too, 5* RG Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Thayer Munford. Munford is a name you probably remember, a multi-year starter at tackle who they shifted inside to make room for Jones at RT. The center spot is held by Luke Wypler, a highly touted recruit who has settled in as a starter this season. The OL has had a great bill of clean health this season, so swingman Matthew Jones is the only reserve worth discussing. Jones has been very good this season when called upon either at OT or OG. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: why can't there be any cyans?????]

I thought you left. [Eric Upchurch]

Resources: My charting, Ohio State game notes, Ohio State roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: Ohio State-Penn State last week obviously.

Personnel: My diagram:

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PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

You will of course note that Ohio State gets first pick out of the guys they want from high school, and if that's not enough they can raid other teams. QB Justin Fields, #2 overall on the composite in 2018 and the eighth-highest ranked recruit in all of 24/7's database, was able to transfer immediately because Georgia didn't contest it (a UGA fan yelled racial slurs at a baseball game, so: yeah). You can argue if this was really the best thing for Ohio State since Joe Burrow left for LSU, but it's quite obviously not a bad thing. There was a dubious rumor going around about Fields's thumb, which he injured when fumbling on the goal line in the 1st quarter against Penn State. While he had two more fumbles in that game, they were from his other (throwing) hand. There was a scarier moment on OSU's last real snap when Fields appeared to roll his ankle, but he got up and was fine. In the unlikely event of someone other Fields going under center, West Virginia grad transfer Chris Chugunov is the #2 guy; most recently he was 5/14 and 4.4 YPA against Rutgers. It will be Fields.

You'll certainly remember RB JK Dobbins (1446 yards, 15 TDs, 6.6 YPC, +20.5/-8, –2 pass pro), who now leaves just a bare handful of carries for backup Master Teague (6.5 YPC), who's a bowling ball type.

Their best outside receiver, Chris Olave (+4/-1), is a shoulda-been-a-five-star version of Ronnie Bell whom Michigan wanted almost as badly as we want this game. Slot KJ Hill (469 yards, 9.2 YPT, 82% CR, 7 TDs, +5/-0 blocking) is the fastest guy in college football and had no business staying in college football after three years of siphoning Parris Campbell's snaps away. Not only is he getting far less usage in the Fields offense than last year's crossing route-a-thon, but his understudy Garrett Wilson (250 yards, 8.1 YPT, 68% CR), the 20th overall player in this year's composite, is KJ Hill'ing KJ Hill's snaps away. The difference: Hill's hands are the most reliable in the conference; Wilson will drop some routine things. You should be familiar with the outside starters: Austin Mack (234 yards, 8.7 YPT, 63% CR), who returned against Penn State from a broken foot, and tall leaper Binjamin Victor (480 yards, 12.3 YPT, 74% CR). Both are seniors who were just inside the composite top-100 four years ago. I know they got rid of Zach Smith but of all these guys only Olave seems to have a pro degree of complexity in his routes. The others just out-athlete everybody, which: fair enough.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Tight End Recruiting: Dust Settling Soon?

The recruitment of top-100 NY TE Jeremy Ruckert, a newly minted five-star on 247 after a stellar performance at The Opening, is nearing a conclusion:

Ohio State has long been the presumed leader, followed by Michigan and then the rest of the pack, and while Ruckert's been quiet about his recruitment it looks like that remains the case. Wolverine247's Isaiah Hole expects Ruckert to choose the Buckeyes after a source who'd held out hope for Michigan's chances got pessimistic:

However, speaking to the same source after Ruckert announced his decision date, that optimism had faded quite significantly. The source told Wolverine247 that Michigan hasn't made the type of gains they would have liked in recent weeks.

Unless something changes between now and Ruckert's decision date in a week and a half, all signs are now pointing to Ohio State being the choice -- they currently lead with 100% of the 247Sports Crystal Ball.

Losing Ruckert to OSU would stink, no question. Michigan still has a lot to like about their tight end recruiting, however. Four-star TX TE Mustapha Muhammad remains one of the better bets to end up in the class—Michigan owns all 23 picks on his crystal ball. Top-100 IL TE Luke Ford, meanwhile, just set up a visit for July 22nd, and 247's Steve Wiltfong thinks the Wolverines could make a big move:

Alabama and Georgia lead here but this Michigan visit I think can flip the script on the whole thing being a Midwest school that really features the TE. I expect Ford and his family to really hit it off with Coach Harbaugh and his staff and the rest of the people in town.

With the visit occurring a week ahead of the BBQ at the Big House, the coaches will be able to give Ford and family plenty of attention.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]