nicholas petit-frere

Welllllllll it's #HateWeek everybody and that means it's time to examine the most fearsome unit in America, the Ohio State offense. As it stands presently, the OSU offense is a mindboggling product that can rip a defense to shreds by having the best talent of any offense in the country, which is perfectly calibrated to fit its scheme. The numbers are staggering: 559.5 yards per game and 47.2 points per game. 7.9 yards per play, a full 0.7 yards better than the next best team. They just hung 56 points on the only team that Michigan has lost to this season, including seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions in that game. Three future first-round NFL receivers. Two probable first-round NFL offensive tackles. A Heisman candidate at QB. Two running backs who average >7 yards per carry. Their SP+ offensive rating is 47.2, a full 4.4 points better than #2 Alabama and starting to challenge 2019 LSU as perhaps the greatest offense of the analytics era. How the f*** do you beat these guys? 

Let's try our best to examine a path to keeping the offense in the yard, while also pointing out the many places this sociopathic grizzly bear wielding a flamethrower could completely incinerate your defense. 

The Film: There are some roadmaps to stopping OSU's offense, between Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon, three teams that all kept OSU under 30 points on offense (the Buckeyes notched a defensive TD against PSU to get over 30). That said, it would also be wildly unfair to use just one of those games, because it would depict a more neutered Buckeye offense and not the one that has obliterated most opposing defenses it has faced. Normally I stick to just one game, but for this column, since it's in preparation for the biggest game of the season, I said "why not just go crazy with it?": 

So, while I only graded the PSU game, I'm going to draw upon tape from the Michigan State game as a way to show the Buckeye offense in much more dangerous light, while also incorporating clips from a number of other games. This will be the longest and most detailed FFFF of the season, but that's what a week with these stakes calls for, eh? 

Personnel:

[Seth note: I previously sent Alex a version of this with Turner starred and Ojabo shielded before I got too deep into the defensive UFR. Turner...did not make it. Ojabo is a 1st rounder on his potential but this game emphasized a major hole in his game currently, and I didn't feel it was right to put him on the level the other shields on this graphic are playing at right now.] 

PAIN. 

CJ Stroud has stepped into the QB job vacated by Justin Fields and has put together a dominant season, delivering very good balls to the wide receiver group that is almost always open. His utter obliteration of Michigan State last week (32/35 for 432 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (!!!!!!!!!)) has made him the Vegas favorite for the Heisman, and we will certainly discuss him at length later in the piece. Stroud never comes off the field unless the game is over, but I still decided to include Kyle McCord on the chart because I was reminded that each of the last three Michigan-Ohio State meetings have featured the backup QB on the field for some (non-garbage time) stretch of the game for Ohio State. McCord is only a true freshman and he has looked like one this season. 

The Buckeyes entered the season with Miyan Williams and Master Teague III sharing the starting responsibilities but as your author predicted in August, true freshman TreVeyon Henderson ascended to the starting job rather quickly. He's been electric as the lead back, with 14 TDs and 1098 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC, taking the holes his offensive line gives him and turning them into home runs with the blazing speed that his 5* status conveys. Williams and Teague do not have Henderson's raw tools and that's why he's become the JK Dobbins to their Mike Weber. Henderson does play a role in the passing game, having hauled in 18 catches for 231 yards and three additional scores on the season. 

It will take years of hindsight and an examination of how these players end up in the NFL to really determine whether this is the best NCAA wide receiver group of all-time, but boy it feels like it has a chance. LSU's 2019 group of Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson were legendary, but this is a fully three-headed monster that also has impeccable depth. Chris Olave has been terrorizing the B1G for years and passed up a first round draft slot to return to Columbus so he could rescue his grandmother who was locked in Ryan Day's basement. Olave leads the receiving corps in TDs, but trails in the other statistical categories to Garrett Wilson, the lightning fast outside receiver who torched Michigan as a true freshman in 2019, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a sophomore slot type who Michigan has yet to see. Both Wilson and JSN were 5* recruits who have accented Olave to put together this unstoppable tank. Olave and Wilson will be first rounders in April (unless Day also abducts Wilson's grandma) and JSN seems to be a lock to be one in April 2023 already. 

Those three have combined for 73% of OSU's pass yardage this season, but the remaining 27% is scattered between a litany of other talented options, including the next wave of guys who will be gut-punching the B1G for the next several years. That includes Emeka Egbuka, a true freshman who was the nation's #10 overall recruit this spring (and is also the team's kick returner), Marvin Harrison Jr., son of that Marvin Harrison and a top 100 recruit himself, and Julian Fleming, who was the nation's #3 overall recruit last spring. The amount of weapons that Ohio State has at the skill positions is so disturbing that the FBI ought to have put the team on the terror watchlist by now. 

If there's one area that isn't quite up to snuff with the rest of the team, it's tight end. Jeremy Ruckert was *surprise* a top 50 recruit himself (and a Michigan target) once upon a time, but he's become only alright. A decent receiving option but nothing to write home about (I know that me saying that means he will have 200 yards on Saturday). The backup TEs include Cade Stover, who comes on as more of a blocker in two TE sets, and then half-TE, half-FB Mitch Rossi, who actually started his NCAA career as a linebacker. Rossi comes on in the situational moments when OSU goes under center. 

The offensive line is anchored by the tackle positions, where the Buckeyes could have both OTs get drafted in the top 45 picks this spring. That tandem is former 5* (and Michigan target) LT Nicholas Petit-Frere, as well as mountainous (6'8, 360) RT Dawand Jones, who both possess sparkling PFF grades and have provided clean pockets for Stroud all year long. The guards are not as highly thought of from an NFL standpoint but have been good too, 5* RG Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Thayer Munford. Munford is a name you probably remember, a multi-year starter at tackle who they shifted inside to make room for Jones at RT. The center spot is held by Luke Wypler, a highly touted recruit who has settled in as a starter this season. The OL has had a great bill of clean health this season, so swingman Matthew Jones is the only reserve worth discussing. Jones has been very good this season when called upon either at OT or OG. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: why can't there be any cyans?????]

Resources: My charting, Ohio State game notes, Ohio State roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: Ohio State-Penn State last week obviously.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

You will of course note that Ohio State gets first pick out of the guys they want from high school, and if that's not enough they can raid other teams. QB Justin Fields, #2 overall on the composite in 2018 and the eighth-highest ranked recruit in all of 24/7's database, was able to transfer immediately because Georgia didn't contest it (a UGA fan yelled racial slurs at a baseball game, so: yeah). You can argue if this was really the best thing for Ohio State since Joe Burrow left for LSU, but it's quite obviously not a bad thing. There was a dubious rumor going around about Fields's thumb, which he injured when fumbling on the goal line in the 1st quarter against Penn State. While he had two more fumbles in that game, they were from his other (throwing) hand. There was a scarier moment on OSU's last real snap when Fields appeared to roll his ankle, but he got up and was fine. In the unlikely event of someone other Fields going under center, West Virginia grad transfer Chris Chugunov is the #2 guy; most recently he was 5/14 and 4.4 YPA against Rutgers. It will be Fields.

You'll certainly remember RB JK Dobbins (1446 yards, 15 TDs, 6.6 YPC, +20.5/-8, –2 pass pro), who now leaves just a bare handful of carries for backup Master Teague (6.5 YPC), who's a bowling ball type.

Their best outside receiver, Chris Olave (+4/-1), is a shoulda-been-a-five-star version of Ronnie Bell whom Michigan wanted almost as badly as we want this game. Slot KJ Hill (469 yards, 9.2 YPT, 82% CR, 7 TDs, +5/-0 blocking) is the fastest guy in college football and had no business staying in college football after three years of siphoning Parris Campbell's snaps away. Not only is he getting far less usage in the Fields offense than last year's crossing route-a-thon, but his understudy Garrett Wilson (250 yards, 8.1 YPT, 68% CR), the 20th overall player in this year's composite, is KJ Hill'ing KJ Hill's snaps away. The difference: Hill's hands are the most reliable in the conference; Wilson will drop some routine things. You should be familiar with the outside starters: Austin Mack (234 yards, 8.7 YPT, 63% CR), who returned against Penn State from a broken foot, and tall leaper Binjamin Victor (480 yards, 12.3 YPT, 74% CR). Both are seniors who were just inside the composite top-100 four years ago. I know they got rid of Zach Smith but of all these guys only Olave seems to have a pro degree of complexity in his routes. The others just out-athlete everybody, which: fair enough.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

It's early Signing Day, hooray?

Anoma foreground. Probably not Cesar Ruiz background. But maybe!

I much prefer the full on early February blitz to this ghostly half-life. Should there be a liveblog? Probably not since there is one scheduled announcement relevant to Michigan, not half-dozen there usually are on Real Signing Day.

That announcement is coming from 5* MD DE Eyabi Anoma, who has been widely expected to go to Alabama for the duration of his recruitment. Brian Dohn popped up this morning to say Michigan is "making a very strong push" and could be the pick, but if that comes off like an attempt to build drama to you, you are wise in the ways of recruiting. The last second flip-flop does happen. I wouldn't get your hopes up. He commits shortly after 2 PM, FWIW.

There have been a couple of events to note. Michigan flipped German DE Julius Welschof from Georgia Tech. He's their third sleeper-ish recruit of the past week and rather indicates where this class is headed: to a spot outside the top ten, in all likelihood. Ace will assemble a hello later today; that's likely to be like the two for MI FB/HB Ben VanSumeren and MO WR Ronnie Bell, light on scouting for a relatively obscure guy.

Welschof does have a fringe four-star ranking from 24/7, excellent size at 6'6" 248, and a camp outing at Michigan. So he's only sleeper-ish.

The other thing to keep an eye on: who signs and who does not. Someone who doesn't sign probably isn't actually a commit. GA LB Otis Reese will wait until February as he decides between Michigan and Georgia. DC QB Kevin Doyle told Nick Baumgardner that he will sign in February with his teammates. Doyle hasn't undertaken any non-Michigan recruiting activity after his commit and came in with full knowledge that Joe Milton was also in the class, so that's probably not the prelude to a departure. I can't imagine Shea Patterson is going to make an impact on a guy two classes behind him.

[UPDATE: also there's this:

Kansas City (Mo.) Park Hill WR Ronnie Bell will not be announced today. I'm told he can't sign another NLI this year (he already signed one to Missouri State for bball). He told our @BriceMarich he's signing a financial aid agreement now, then a NLI in February.

— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) December 20, 2017

Wouldn't expect that would impact his status in the class at all.]

So what's left?

Not much. We'll take Doyle at his word, so Michigan has 18 commitments and Reese in a class that I thought might get up to 22, tops, before Shea Patterson transferred in. The fish still on the hook:

• LA WR JaMarr Chase. Chase just visited TCU. He has an official to LSU scheduled in January. Both TCU and LSU folks are talking up their chances. Kind of feels like an "everyone hears the good things" kind of recruitment.
• CA WR Chris Olave. Olave had to cancel his official last weekend but tells Greg Biggins that he plans to reschedule it in January. UCLA, OSU, Utah, and one of USC or Tennesssee appears to be the top five there. There was some optimism in Ann Arbor about Olave prior to last weekend, FWIW. He still seems pretty wide open.
• FL OL Nicholas Petit-Frere. Petit-Frere appears to be a genuine mystery recruit; since his last Michigan visit nothing of note has really happened. Florida is "in the thick of it"; Loy says ND is "definitely still involved"; etc. Nobody really knows.
• AZ OL Jarrett Patterson. Patterson took his UCLA trip, and both UCLA and Michigan sources believe UCLA still trails afterwards per Lorenz and the UCLA 24/7 site. (Sort of: Patterson "still might be leaning" to Michigan, per those guys. Very wishy-washy language.)  He is still going to wait for February, it appears, but if Michigan is still ahead in the immediate aftermath of an official to his other finalist that bodes very well. We've put in a CB for Patterson to Michigan.
• GA OL Jalen Goss. Goss visited Auburn and is taking his recruitment to Signing Day. I don't think Michigan will end up being a major factor for him.
• NJ DT Tyler Friday. A Brian Dohn CB to OSU put folks on alert but it doesn't appear to be causing a stampede of any variety; the subsequent two picks, one from an OSU guy, are to Michigan. Sam Webb completed another three-part odyessy with a recruit's parent, and those are almost always indicators that the kid in question will end up in a winged helmet. Still looking good there.
• GA ATH Michael Barrett. Barrett has had no recruiting activity since his visit to Michigan but oddly has not pulled the trigger. Starting to wonder if he has a committable offer at this instant. He's the kind of guy who would probably want to secure a spot and sign early, right?

The most likely outcome is probably Patterson, Friday, and Barrett. Oh, and maybe...

Krieger Clone #5

pictured: Michigan's 2020 secondary

Michigan tossed out an offer to MI CB Vincent Gray two days ago, and I am confused about this. Outgoing defensive backs: zero. Incoming defensive backs: four. Gray does fit this class's model of a fleet of interchangeable 6'2" guys with long arms, but surely four of those dudes in one class is sufficient? I don't know.

Gray is a Mizzou soft commit who's taken recent visits to Iowa State and West Virginia. The Mountaineers expected to add him to their class today, but the Michigan offer appears to have successfully gotten him to wait:

By all accounts, Gray was set to sign with the Mountaineers on Wednesday, despite his "commitment" (rumors are he already decommitted) to Missouri. The Wolverines have asked him to wait, though, and he says that he likely will, choosing to visit Ann Arbor in January and then sign with a school later.

The WVU site believes the Michigan offer is a contingent one, FWIW. Given the way the board looks I'd be surprised if there wasn't a spot for him down the road. 

Etc.

Former Michigan commit Leonard Taylor currently forecast to go to... Kentucky. Bad move on the decommit.