Welcome back to FFFF. After a one week hiatus for the bye week, this column is rested and ready, much like (hopefully) Michigan's football team. This week's opposition is the Northwestern Wildcats, who sit this season at 3-3, having beaten the bad teams on their schedule, while not being terribly competitive against the better ones. For years Pat Fitzgerald has exceeded expectations at Northwestern in spite of a dreadful offense, one that seems to be about as bad as usual this year from a bird's eye view. Is that the case when we look at it up close? Let's take a look: 

The Film: For this piece focused on the offense, we're using Northwestern's game against Nebraska from Oct. 2. Northwestern has played (in my opinion) only two good(ish) teams in Nebraska and Michigan State. Of those two, Nebraska's defense is a better schematic fit when making comparisons to Michigan. If you remember the FFFF on Nebraska's defense from a couple weeks ago, the Huskers run a 3-4 where the OLB's are essentially DE's, much like Michigan. And considering that the quality of the two defenses are in the neighborhood of each other, Nebraska provides about as good of a replica of Michigan's defense as we can get for this exercise. One thing to know about this game, though, is that it was a massacre: the Huskers won 56-7 and had pulled the starters on offense by the mid-third quarter. Important to keep that in mind. 

Personnel: Seth's chart.

Northwestern's QB carousel has landed on Ryan Hilinski, a transfer from South Carolina, after first cycling through Hunter Johnson and Andrew Marty. Hilinski has played better than Johnson, something that seemed obvious to me in the summer, yet it took Fitzgerald until the team was 1-2 to land on the right guy. The devastating injury to RB Cam Porter in the offseason has left Evan Hull atop the RB depth chart, followed closely by short yardage back Andrew Clair, as well as Fr Anthony Tyus III (a Portage, MI, native). Those three have combined for nearly 90% of the non-QB carries this season. 

At receiver, Northwestern's most favorite target is Stephon Robinson Jr., a Kansas transfer and a smaller slot type. On the outside, the most dangerous target is the similarly sized Malik Washington, a credible deep threat. Bryce Kirtz, who size-wise is larger than the other two mentioned receivers, is also a factor on the outside, with 19 catches through 6 games. The receiving options drop off a cliff quickly after those three. Hull and Clair have combined for 15 catches, mostly through screens and checkdowns over the middle. The 'Cats don't get a ton of production from the TE position, but Charlie Mangieri has eight catches for 50 yards, while Trey Pugh has seven catches of his own. 

On the offensive line, Northwestern builds the line around LT Peter Skoronski, a 6'4" sophomore who entered the season with enormous expectations (we will discuss that in depth later). Ethan Wiederkher starts opposite Skoronski on the right side, while Josh Priebe and Charlie Schmidt start at the guard spots, left and right, respectively. In terms of experience, the right side of NU's line is much more veteran than the left side, though the left side is more talented. At center, RS Sr Sam Gerak is the old man of the line and tries to hold the whole thing together. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: So how bad is Northwestern's offense this year?]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Northwestern was one of the earliest adopters of the spread back in the early 2000s under head coach Randy Walker and it has stuck pretty much ever since. Here's the formation distribution: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	16	3	41	95%
Under Center	3	--	--	5%

Not much under center! I should first note that we're only counting the plays up until Northwestern's final drive, as that one saw the starting offense lifted, with Hilinski coming off the field. Northwestern only goes under center to run the ball in short yardage situations. Their three under center plays were on 1st & Goal from the one, 4th & 1, and 3rd & 1. On one of those three plays, they ran a QB sneak. It's essentially a device used in special situations but is otherwise not a component of the offense. The rest of the game will be run out of the shotgun, normally with three or four receivers lined up. 

Out of this spread look, Northwestern was a pass-first offense in this game, as you can see from the above table, as well as this table: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	8	17
2nd	7	15
3rd	3	10
4th	1	2

On all three downs, the distribution of plays was strongly skewed toward the pass, suggesting that Northwestern came into this game intending to pass the ball. However, I was curious about how the feel of this game may have affected those numbers. The Wildcats got smoked in this one. They were already down when they saw the ball on offense for the first time. Nebraska scored a TD on their first four possessions, so before the NU offense could get settled in, they were facing a gargantuan deficit. That reality may have pushed them to pass it more than they wanted to, so I looked into the numbers from their other games. I broke up the categories into "pass", "run", and "QB run", since the last of those three in an offense like NU's tends to be scrambles and sacks, which of course were also passing plays originally (something I note in my film review but you can't glean from the box score). So here's their distribution by game:  

MSU: 43 pass, 27 run, 11 QB

Indiana St: 16 pass, 37 run, 9 QB 

Duke: 39 pass, 23 run, 11 QB

Ohio: 20 pass, 50 run, 1 QB

Rutgers: 33 pass, 45 run, 3 QB 

What you notice here is that there's a massive gap depending on whether Northwestern is winning the game compared to trailing. In the games they lost (this one + MSU + Duke), they're almost 2:1 in favor of the pass. But in games they won (ISU + Ohio + Rutgers), they are almost 2:1 in favor of the run. Given that I presume their porous run defense (which we'll talk about later in the week in the defensive FFFF) will struggle against Michigan's running attack, I would expect NU to trail early against Michigan, so this game will be decently instructive, since I anticipate a pass-heavy Northwestern offense on Saturday. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Since this is a spread offense, Northwestern is pretty firmly not in the Manball category. They occasionally put two TE's on the field, and do use a FB-type blocker on some of their short yardage situations when they go under center, but those are decently uncommon occurrences, overshadowed by the large volume of the time that NU runs with 3-4 receivers split out wide. This, in addition to the QB almost always in the gun, shows you that this is much closer to Basketball on Grass than to anything resembling Manball. The offense has lots of chronic problems, which we will discuss, that prevent it from being an exciting Rich Rod-style spread running attack, or from being an Air Raid bonanza, so using the term Basketball on Grass feels slightly inappropriate, but it is still a far more apt descriptor than Manball. 

Here's what I would term as Northwestern's base set: 

Hilinski in the shotgun, one RB next to him, five at the line, and then four receivers split out wide, with one of those receivers being a TE. That's a pretty common look that Northwestern gives you. 

And this is the other configuration that you could construe to be the "base set": 

Here we see Hilinski still in the gun, with an RB still at his side, but the TE is lined up closer to the line as a blocker, while there are three receivers outside (one you can't see on screen). This one, in addition to the above, comprise the vast majority of the formations that Northwestern used in this game. 

While we're at it, I'll throw in a shot of the under center beef package that Fitzgerald trots out in the rare 3rd & short or goal line circumstances: 

It's in the playbook, just not used all that much. 

Hurry it up or Grind it out: Northwestern is not a molasses slow offense, but they are also no one's idea of a hurry it up team. I didn't see much of any tempo used in this one, as the 'Cats were mostly running plays with between 5 and 15 seconds remaining on the play clock. Sometimes after a first down they would run a play with 25 seconds on the play clock, but that was decently unusual. The 5-15 seconds range was the happy medium, representing a pretty standard pace. 

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): You may have noticed something about the Northwestern play distribution across their games that I listed earlier in the piece, which is that the QB run element was much more notable earlier in the season, with 11, 9, and 11 runs going to the QB slot in their first three games, followed by 1 and 3 (plus only a few in this game) in the subsequent games. The reason for that disparity is that it was after the first three games that Ryan Hilinski officially pushed Hunter Johnson out of the starting role. Johnson was a much more credible rushing threat, but with Hilinski in charge of the offense now, they've put whatever existed of that in the garage. In this game, they did not intentionally run Hilinski once, outside of the QB sneak (which doesn't really count). The only rushing plays for the QB that show up in this box score are sacks/fumbles. In other games he has scrambled a few times, but the QB run is not something you need to be worried about at all, if the past few games are any indication.

I also went back and looked at Hilinski's 2019 season at South Carolina when he was the starter there and it doesn't look any different: 33 carries for -55 yards (basically, just sacks and the occasional scramble). So this is right on par with Dylan Morris for the least credible QB run threat of the season so far that Michigan has seen. I gave Morris a 3, so Hilinski gets a 3. 

Dangerman: The Northwestern offense is short on major weapons, but a guy I really like is slot WR Stephon Robinson Jr.. The Wildcats are able to do a lot of creative stuff with the 5'10", 180 lb. wide receiver. They can line him up like a receiver in the slot, but also on the outside. He finished the game with eight catches for 116 yards and NW's lone TD. He was a routine problem for Nebraska all over the field. Here he is shaking a corner and picking up a first down on a simple comebacks route: 

And here he is toasting a corner on the outside for NU's TD: 

I like Robinson's hands as well, as he made a difficult catch on a ball that is not put in the optimal spot: 

Robinson can also be used in pre-snap motion motioning from a receiver's position split outside into the backfield. This helps when they use him in mesh concepts, where his speed running underneath is an asset, and Robinson's smaller size makes him elusive and shifty: 

Robinson has three carries on the season as well, with his versatility allowing Northwestern to use in the rushing game, though he did not carry the ball in this one, so I don't have a clip. There's a lot to like in Robinson's game and he's the lone player on Northwestern that I think Michigan's secondary has to have a general plan before the game of how to handle. That earns him this week's Dangerman distinction. 

HenneChart: Hilinski pieced together a game that looks pretty alright in the box score, despite Northwestern only scoring 7 points: 25 for 39, 1 TD and 256 yards on 6.6 yards per attempt, with no INTs. Not going to win you the Heisman, but the standard of Northwestern quarterback play that has been established at times during the Fitzgerald era is so low that it looks pretty solid by comparison. Was that actually the case? Here's the chart: 

NW. vs. Neb	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Ryan Hilinski	1	17			3	6		1	1	7	2		62%	-

Not too shabby, not great by any stretch, and that's how I'd sum it up. In one word, let's go with "competent". Hilinski made a few really good throws, generally had wavering accuracy, but was successful more often than not. The degree of difficulty was not high, but he didn't throw an interception and wasn't an absolute trainwreck, which is an upgrade over Hunter Johnson's entire career. Here's the best that Hilinski had to offer in this one: 

This was one play before Northwestern's lone TD (which I clipped earlier) and it represented one of just a few big chunk plays they got in the game. Credit Hilinski for standing in there despite pressure (of which there was a lot in this game) and delivering a dime. His throw on the TD wasn't nearly as good (underthrown), but he wasn't able to step into the throw due to the center being driven into his lap and he still managed to deliver a catchable ball. Here it is again: 

The majority of the throws that Hilinski was attempting were pretty routine and safe (including three screens which aren't in the HenneChart), which he did adequately. Stuff like this: 

You may notice in the chart a high number of "marginal" passes, ones that rob the receiver of the opportunities for YAC, and it was definitely an issue. A number of Hilinski's throws were wobblers that got to their target, but perhaps not in the most satisfactory of manner: 

Ideally you'd like this ball to be to the outside shoulder in line with the receiver's chest, which would allow the receiver to turn the corner towards the sideline, evading Domann, and maybe picking up 8-10 yards before the deeper DB's arrive. Instead, the throw is way high and the receiver is just happy to hang on before Domann rams into his side like a demolition derby car. This was a recurring problem for Hilinski. 

The other frequent issue, as I suppose you can guess, was just plain inaccuracy: 

This screen was going nowhere anyway, but it doesn't help that Hilinski throws the ball into the dirt. I marked him up for seven inaccurate balls, in addition to the six marginal throws, and one that was batted down at the line. The saving grace I suppose you could say for Hilinski was the amount of pressure he was under, which is a real storyline and will affect any QB no matter how good. We will delve into the OL problems shortly, but it was open season on Hilinski, which forced him to rush a lot of balls, and prevented him from being able to step into some throws. That may have made him seem worse than he was, but that's also not a problem I expect to be solved by Saturday, with Michigan lining up David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson on the edges. 

In summary, Ryan Hilinski is an okay quarterback capable of making short, safe throws with a bit more depth to them than Noah Vedral's, but he won't win you a game, despite the occasional dart, and inaccuracy is a real problem, perhaps exacerbated by Northwestern's pass pro problems. 

 

Overview

So what do we make of the offense for Northwestern in totality? It still is not good, but I came away from this review thinking it is more competent than I anticipated. Despite scoring just seven points, they were able to move the football a decent bit on Nebraska. All three running backs have surprisingly yards per carry clips for the season, and in this game they all posted over 3.8 YPC. That, I believe, was in spite of leaky OL play. Andrew Clair was probably my favorite of the Northwestern backs, with an ability to bowl over tacklers in short yardage situations: 

He can also evade tacklers in space: 

He showcased these skills in the passing game as well, which we've already seen from this clip, which I used in the Hilinski section: 

Clair and Hull will get close to even snaps and I think they do a good job finding hidden yards that are not handed to them by their blockers. PFF agrees. The tight ends and other wide receivers besides Robinson deserve much less discussion, but Malik Washington can do a lot of the same things that Stephon Robinson can, given their similar profile: 

The offense is predicated on spreading the playmakers out and then asking Hilinski to get them the ball rather quickly, and then letting said playmakers make plays. That happened a decent bit against Nebraska. Unfortunately, it was also undercut by the many, many issues that Northwestern had along the offensive line. I came into this game expecting to rave about LT Peter Skoronski, who, by all accounts, was immaculate last season as a true freshman playing the most pivotal position on the offensive line. He was a preseason All-American, and though his PFF grades are still in line with a quality player, I saw whatever the opposite of "quality" is from him in this game: 

LT #77 to bottom of the line

That's Garrett Nelson, Nebraska's dangerous pass-rusher, clowning Skoronski for an emphatic strip sack of Hilinski. Don't worry, Ethan Wiederkehr on the right side also had trouble too: 

RT #76 to the top of the line

The corner blitz had some success too: 

The central problem with the line had less to do with individual players, all of whom weren't great, as opposed to holistic line breakdowns that looped everyone in as a culprit. That is somewhat the case in the clip above, where you have an assignment/mental breakdown from the right side of the line and no one picks up Domann. This fourth down attempt is blown up by an unblocked rusher coming between Skoronski and backup LG Carter Rowley: 

In another instance, Northwestern fell flat on their face at the goal line after two unblocked rushers slip through and force a fumble: 

There were also issues picking up edge defenders on some plays. On several occasions, runs were cut short because of an unblocked edge standing there and waiting to move into the gap: 

I'm not sure who's at fault for that, but it popped up several times and killed a number of plays. I don't know if there was supposed to be a read built in for Hilinski that they've taken out because he can't run, but it was a noticeable issue. 

As a whole, these problem spots along the offensive line stopped Northwestern from putting together a good offense. There are some playmakers, and an adequate QB, but that QB is often under fire, and the solid running backs have to work to dig the team out of the hole that the OL creates. 

One last wrinkle to note about the playbook: the wildcat is in it. They only used it once in this game, but Evan Hull took the direct snap for five yards after Hilinski lined up outside pre-play: 

Not something to be flagged at the front of the defensive gameplan, but it is something to be cognizant of. 

 

So what does this mean for Michigan? 

Based on this game, the biggest way for Michigan to blow up Northwestern's offense is simply to clamp down on the offensive line. Aidan Hutchinson should have lots of fun no matter what side of the line he's lined up on, and Michigan should be able to decisively win at the line of scrimmage, just as they did against Nebraska. Good tackling will be pivotal to contain both Washington and Robinson in the passing game, as well as all three running backs. If Michigan gets consistent pressure and tackles well, there's not a lot else here to be worry about. I'd recommend putting Dax on Robinson out of the slot.