Resources: My charting, IU game notes, IU roster, Bill C profile, CFBstats

I respect Indiana. When we talk about the vast ethical shortcomings of our division rivals, Indiana is our version of nisi Vanderbiltum. Kevin Wilson, their best hire since Mallory, built a modern, terrifying stretch zone & bomb machine that tore up Michigan's 2015 defense on the ground. And IU fired him immediately when concerns surfaced about player safety in Wilson's tough-guy program culture, despite what that would mean from a competitive standpoint.

Indiana also took the extra, and unnecessary, step of hiring Mike DeBord to run their offense.

Tell me that's not how every college football program ought to act?

The film: I tried to choose another defense with linebackers athletic enough to try to man up IU's slot receivers and pressure the quarterback, since so many IU opponents this year were content to sit back and let sophomore QB Peyton Ramsey pick away. I had to go back to early October, but I found a ranked Big Ten East matchup with some team Michigan hasn't played. This game ended 26-49 but competitive until well into the 4th quarter. In fact IU's kicker missed a 50-yard field goal at the end of the 3rd that would have put the Hoosiers within 6 points, ground that might have been covered by any of several wide open bombs that Ramsey overthrew. It got away from them in the end, but still, IU got to run their offense in a hostile environment against a team that likes to blitz, and that's why I chose this game. Why, what reason did you think?

Personnel: Bad news guys: No Whop.

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The roster is very spread and features the slot receivers in hopes of running them into space for YAC. Slot Luke Timian, the multi-transfer walk-on, missed this game, however he was legitimately ahead of name-fave Whop Philyor before the latter lost most of this year to a high ankle sprain. Whop's role has been filled by J-Shun Harris, the exciting little bugger who's spent most of the last four years recovering from his own ailments, plus freshman ATH Taylor Reese, and the rest of the RB depth chart he's shared with. All of these guys have more targets than Grant Perry.

The OL are mostly Frey recruits who barely crested 300; C Nick Linder grad transferred from Miami (yes THAT Miami) and took over midseason from (and still cedes snaps to) last year's starting C Hunter Littlejohn. Littlejohn is vastly more likely to screw up his assignment, but Linder seems much more likely to screw up everyone else's. RT Brandon Knight and LG Wes Martin are good pass blockers. RG Simon Stepaniak is more volatile. LT Coy Cronk has been starting since he was a true freshman, and got worked like one even with plenty of RB and TE help. That may have been a result of going against an excellent young DE the announcers liked whose name was Chase, but if Cronk's weakness is all-conference-ish edge rushers named Chase I've got bad news for him this week. Cronk's also had a hard time staying healthy. IU tried Stepaniak, then a backup guard, then a 6-8 freshman when Cronk has to step out. A quick review of the last box score shows this still happens.

WR Nick Westbrook is a major threat because he can adjust so well to deep balls; fellow experienced WR Donavan Hale does not, and is in the process of getting passed by the kid, WR Ty Fryfogle, an underrated athlete and ultra-rare escapee from the black hole of Mississippi. Tight ends are non-blocking, bigged-up WR types; freshman Peyton Hendershot will chunk you on a seam route once a game but TE Austin Dorris is just a short range guy. The slots are the main method of moving the ball.

Nominal running backs are just that, except the 20% of the time that they're slot receivers. With Morgan Ellison out all year large freshman RB Stevie Scott gets most of their carries; top backup RB Mike Majette is a 3rd down specialist with more receptions than handoffs. 3rd stringer RB Ronnie Walker, another freshman, has just 12 touches in the last five weeks.

[the rest of the breakdown, after THE JUMP]

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Dink dink dink passing spread. Their usual personnel is two outside receivers, two from the slot/RB depth chart, and a tight end. But everybody will line up all across the field, and they'll spend most of the day in a 1-yard pistol—there were four full pistols with the RB in line with the QB and the rest were basically shotguns—so it's best to break down their formations by how many are in the tackle box.

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	5-wide	4-wide	3-wide	Bunch		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard	6	7	22	8		3.14		21	8	4	10
Passing	6	5	13	4		3.21		20	1	2	3
Total	17%	17%	49%	17%		3.17		59%	13%	9%	19%

This is "Bunch:"

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? When they do run it's almost always a kind of option. Remember how Penn State was running Joe Moorhead stuff without Joe Moorhead? That was Ricky Rahne trying to run the thing he'd watched Moorhead install for a couple of years. This running game is Mike DeBord watching film of Joe Moorhead offenses and scribbling notes. There were just 14 runs in this game and most were a split zone read. Not an arc read; it's a zone read where they trap the edge guy and read whatever DE or LB is next.

It worked this once, so DeBord ran it again on this drive (it got stuffed) and the rest of the game (when it continued to get stuffed). It's tied together with their favorite RPO, which reads a slot defender and throws a post under a two-high safety.

Hurry it up or grind it out? It turns out last year's tempo offense was a Wile-E Coyote year. They're down to 46th (completely average). They tempoed one time in this game and they don't huddle but that is just what a normal offense does.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Ramsey replaced Lagow last year mostly because Ramsey's legs give IU a semblance of a running game. He's not a huge run threat but he's definitely in the dual-threat range:

That's a 7.

Zook Frames Janklin Factor:

You remember DeBord, the man responsible for the "Rock, Paper, Scissors" metaphor because of his tendency to throw rock twice after his opponent has picked up the tendency before revealing scissors, then paper comes out once in the 3rd quarter and nails you. Then he calls paper a few more times because it was such a great success. I'm still recovering from my week of watching James Franklin on the sideline, and now that DeBord seems so sane in comparison I'm starting to wonder if our new scale is maybe too high a benchmark. I only physically yelled "WHAT ARE YOU DOING DEBORD!?!" twice during this game.

The first was when they ran this insane fake end-around that asks a tiny RB to play left tackle for 8 seconds. This play got them a touchdown earlier because the defense blew the coverage, but the opponent has now had a halftime to fix the thing that got them and realized they can do so from their base defense. In DeBordian philosophy, however, what worked before will probably work again, even if it only worked for bad reasons. So here it comes again:

This play makes no sense against this defense. You're putting your quarterback out where there's no blocking to wait for long-developing routes against zone coverage you're unlikely to get just in case the cornerback on the opposite side gets caught staring at the end-around instead of picking up the tight end. You got them on it once: good. Build off of it or get your hand out of the cookie jar!

The second time I shouted at my screen was the next time they ran the same play again time on a crucial 4th quarter drive, with the same result. Fourth down decisions were all sensible, though.

Dangerman: I'll start with Timian, whom you ought to remember from last year's ridiculous ending for his role in Ridiculous Moment #2:

and Ridiculous Moment #4:

For the other guy you'll have to think back to the most ridiculous moment of 2016:

The rule is Indiana always has to have one field-stretching wideouts who excels at uncallable OPI pushoffs to create separation at the catch. In 2015 that was Simmie Cobbs. But in 2016 Cobbs went down in their first game and Nick Westbrook emerged as the same player. Last year Westbrook was injured and Cobbs returned. With Cobbs in the NFL, the pendulum is back to Westbrook, whom you remember as the only guy who did anything against Michigan in the snow globe game. He is quite good:

Westbrook is not just a leaper. Secondary coaches are going to cringe at how this cornerback has his weight distributed to give him absolutely zero chance of jamming an inside move. I mean, this cornerback, junior CB Damon Arnette, doesn't even put his arms up. Westbrook's footwork also has something to do with his ability to release inside and free, and then Arnette, who's expected to go in the first day of the draft, can't keep up.

Of course the quality of this opponent's press technique isn't that relevant to the Hoosiers' upcoming game with Michigan, which is what we're all watching this game for. But this play does say something about Westbrook's delivery boy…

HenneChart:

Peyton Ramsey	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Opponent	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
A Big Ten East Team	4	20(5)	-		5(1)	2		1	3*	9	3*		60%

Don't pay any attention to the lack of scrambles. The defense's strategy in this game was to blitz often and have one of the blitzers drop into a spy. Ramsey's 398 carries this year (second only to Scott's 894) speaks both to their option tendencies and the fact that he will scramble if given the chance. The weird design of the defense—which aligned in a two-high 4-3 under all day with a middle linebacker a yard off the line of scrimmage, hearkening back to the old 5-2 Eagle defense that Bo's mentor ran in the 1960s and '70s—just didn't give him a chance.

As a thrower Ramsey isn't going to blow you away but he's over the efficiency Mendoza line. That's helped by the offense, which spreads out to four- and five-wide and asks him to make quick throws on first reads to guys opened up by pick plays. PFF's midseason review of Big Ten QBs is getting more outdated every week but this part hasn't changed:

Dwayne Haskins, who is irrelevant to this week of scouting Indiana, is going to define the archetype of tall, accurate, contact-allergic pocket-dweller who spends his days dishing to athletic slot receivers opened by mesh routes and getting credit for the yards they generate after. Peyton Ramsey has a lower average depth of target.

OVERVIEW:

Since Ramsey is the offense we'll just keep talking about him. They don't give him too much reading to do. IU's passing game against man-heavy defense was predicated mostly on pick routes where they spread everyone across the field and ran a slot receiver under a tight end either trying to get in the way of the coverage:

or just overtly screen-blocking it. Ramsey is at his best when his job is to look off a linebacker then deliver the ball to a slot receiver across his face.

When he has to come down to another read, he often just doesn't. Here's the canonical 2018 Indiana offensive play:

You see the unhurried pre-motion. You see the slot receiver literally behind the tight end. You see the TE try to get a rub on the guy, and that the defense is planning for this and has someone ready to drive on it. What Ramsey didn't see is the pick man just got oodles of separation with nobody out there.

The shortness of his completions has as much to do with the accuracy of his Ramsey's deep ball as the dinky-dunky base offense. He was just 2/10 throwing fades and fly routes in this game.

Trading Cobbs for Westbrook, Michigan played them last year with nearly identical lineups, and that went how most things did. Brian's UFR summation is probably the most accurate predictor of what to expect in a rematch:

20 points allowed! A step back! A palpable step back!

uh

They almost got 300 yards of offense in an OT game!

i mean

Dude, I can't pretend to be worried about the defense. This is a leap too far for even bolded alter-ego.

I... okay. You're probably right about that. I apologize for making you Devil's Advocate this. Drive chart reprise:

• 8 three and outs if you count the two-and-out INT
• 1 first down and out
• 21-yard turnover on downs in OT
• 3 FGA drives of 54, 61, and 42 yards
• 20-yard TD drive after punt return
• 64 yard TD drive

That's close to part for the defense, which tends to give up one legit TD drive and 2-4 drives of any length otherwise, with points derived from those based on field position. This was 15 drives, and they gave up 20 points with two of those drives starting at the Michigan 20 and 25. They're the #2 D in the country to S&P+ and yards per play. Indiana averaged 3.8 YPP. It was the same game from the same elite D.

The difference this year is Indiana is incorporating more RPOs. In this game "Rock" was inside zone and split zone. Paper was an RPO that they ran for a few series until the defense downloaded it. Watch how hard the safety breaks on this:

Scissors was a play-action off that RPO where the WR is running a "Sluggo" (slant and go) and the biting safety got bit.

Michigan doesn't bring that LB—Hudson—as much as IU's opponent did in this one. In fact this opponent's aggressiveness with its linebackers was rather exceptional, as was the amount they got picked on.

Anyway, stop the long stuff and the RPO game and the rest won't be much of a concern. The pieces are there, but the days of #CHAOSTEAM stretching your overcommitting DTs, flooding your linebacker level with slot ninjas, bombing you over the top, then racing to the line to do it again under Kevin Wilson are long gone. What ever happened to that guy anyway? Who do we even play after this?