Fall Roster Overanalysis Comment Count

Seth

EVENT REMINDER:

FOOTBALL EVE 2018, hosted by Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending, will be at 6:00 PM on Thursday, August 30, at 327 E. Hoover, Ann Arbor—the same place as last year. There will be 12802hsllogoScratch BBQ and Catering. There will be beer. There will be "OMIGOD COLLEGE FOOTBALL" on TV.

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Don't look too closely at the video or the new weights or you'll realize you're being a little bit lied to. Doesn't matter, we've got PHONEBOOKS so let's OVERANALYZE them as is TRADITION around these PARTS! Steve?

Can I help?

Yes.

Chart?

Yes.

WEIGHT GAIN 2000 AND 18 THOUSAND!

We had something new this spring: an incoming freshman roster. That seemed to be coming from the players themselves since they didn't match any of the services. Anyway we have that to compare with the new bodies. The rules:

  1. All weight gain is muscle
  2. All weight lost was excess fat
  3. No change means the player replaced excess fat with more muscle.
QUARTERBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Shea Patterson     200 203 205     +3 +2
Brandon Peters     216 220 230     +4 +10
Dylan McCaffrey       199 217       +18
Joe Milton       220 234       +14
RUNNING BACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Karan Higdon   190 189 190 202   -1 +1 +12
Chris Evans     200 206 216     +6 +10
Tru Wilson     190 200 202     +10 +2
O'Maury Samuels       192 205       +13
Kurt Taylor       194 195       +1
Christian Turner       185 200       +15
Hassan Haskins       207 212       +5
Michael Barrett       215 224       +9
FULLBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Jared Wangler 219 230 229 240 240 +11 -1 +11 -
Ben Mason       251 254       +3
Ben VanSumeren       232 236       +4
SLOT RECEIVER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Grant Perry   185 196 191 195   +11 -5 +4
Eddie McDoom     180 181 187     +1 +6
Nate Schoenle     185 192 202     +7 +10
Oliver Martin       198 200       +2
WIDE RECEIVER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Donovan Peoples-Jones       199 208       +9
Tarik Black       206 215       +9
Nico Collins       206 218       +12
Ronnie Bell       174 182       +8
TIGHT END
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Zach Gentry   230 244 248 262   +14 +4 +14
Nick Eubanks     236 240 252     +4 +12
Sean McKeon     240 248 251     +8 +3
Ryan Hayes       262 271       +9
Luke Schoonmaker       229 231       +2
Mustapha Muhammad       244 245       +1
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Juwann Bushell-Beatty 319 319 311 315 318 - -8 +4 +3
Grant Newsome   280 318 314 318   +38 -4 +4
Nolan Ulizio   293 291 295 305   -2 +4 +10
Jon Runyan Jr.   275 304 298 310   +29 -6 +12
James Hudson       302 301       -1
Andrew Stueber       314 323       +9
Jalen Mayfield       275 296       +21
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Stephen Spanellis     335 307 300     -28 -7
Ben Bredeson     310 308 320     -2 +12
Michael Onwenu     350 350 350     - -
Andrew Vastardis     305 311 317     +6 +6
Cesar Ruiz       316 319       +3
Joel Honigford       275 295       +20
Chuck Filiaga       345 341       -4
Phillip Paea       275 296       +21
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Bryan Mone 312 325 310 325 335 +13 -15 +15 +10
Lawrence Marshall 241 238 268 285 285 -3 +30 +17 -
Michael Dwumfour     300 290 285     -10 -5
Aubrey Solomon       297 287       -10
Deron Irving-Bey       274 294       +20
Donovan Jeter       288 308       +20
DEFENSIVE END
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Chase Winovich 220 230 245 253 255 +10 +18 +8 +2
Reuben Jones   225 222 245 250   +3 +23 +5
Rashan Gary     287 281 283     -6 +2
Ron Johnson     245 264 267     +19 +3
Carlo Kemp     255 264 280     +9 +16
Luiji Vilain       242 255       +13
Kwity Paye       241 260       +19
Taylor Upshaw       240 246       +6
Aidan Hutchinson       258 268       +10
Julius Welschof       253 253       -
LINEBACKER
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Noah Furbush 210 217 238 240 237 +7 +21 +2 -3
Josh Uche     217 226 238     +9 +12
Devin Bush     232 222 233     -10 +11
Devin Gil     230 220 231     -10 +11
Jordan Anthony       236 245       +9
Drew Singleton       219 222       +3
Josh Ross       229 225       -4
Cameron McGrone       225 228       +3
VIPER(!)
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Khaleke Hudson     205 205 220     - +15
Jordan Glasgow   200 210 210 223   +10 - +13
SAFETY
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Tyree Kinnel   200 206 201 215   +6 -5 +14
Josh Metellus     204 199 204     -5 +5
Brad Hawkins       204 213       +9
J'Marick Woods       203 210       +7
Jaylen Kelly-Powell       173 184       +11
Casey Hughes       185 187       +2
Sammy Faustin       190 187       -3
CORNERBACK
Player 2014 2015 2016 2017+ 2018 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to Now
Brandon Watson 188 189 203 200 204 +1 +14 -3 +4
David Long     187 187 198     - +11
Lavert Hill     168 177 181     +9 +4
Ambry Thomas       179 183       +4
Benjamin St-Juste       193 196       +3
Myles Sims       173 183       +10
Vincent Gray       180 184       +4
Gemon Green       175 174       -1
German Green       178 175       -3

Hit THE JUMP fo…

Dude, I have like two jobs here.

Okay you do it.

[Hit THE JUMP if for some excessively optimistic obsessiveness]

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Let's talk about the weights, by position:

Quarterback.

Dylan McCaffrey ain't as gangly anymore and Brandon Peters is up to playing weight but the eye-opener here is Joe Milton at 234 pounds. That's not Cardale Jones (249 lbs on the Chargers) size but it's on the way there.

Running back.

You all saw the jacked photo of Higdon to make his 12 new pounds the most believable on the roster. Somehow Chris Evans is pacing ahead still, up to 216. O'Maury Samuels is over 200, and Michael Barrett, if he sticks at RB, is immediately the largest running back on the roster.

Receiver.

Big gains for last year's crop (except Oliver Martin) give Michigan three Big Ten-sized receivers where last year they had none. Tarik Black's 9 pounds are the most encouraging because he probably lost a lot of weight while holed up last year, and he was pretty spindly last year.

Tight end.

Zach Gentry is huuuuge. Eubanks is also well into blocky-catchy size now and if that comes with the associated blocking uptick he might ameliorate the loss of Wheatley. Also Ryan Hayes is listed as a tight end but he's up to 271 already—hoping for four games and a redshirt but it'll be fun to see those four games.

Offensive line.

Huge gains for freshmen becoming redshirt freshmen are normal but these are some big jumps. Joel Honigford is up 20 pounds, Andrew Stueber—despite reports he was up to 340—was listed at 323. Bredeson and Runyan gained 12 pounds each heading into their junior seasons. Also Jaylen Mayfield, who was supposed to be a TE type to hang weight on, is already listed at plausible left tackle playing weight. Filiaga being down 4 is probably a good sign but it's unknown how much of that was shift. Onwenu continues to be a silly guess because you can't weigh an object if the scale is just gravitationally sucked into it.*

Note: Paea has been working with the offensive line but he's still a DL to the rosters. He's also up to 296.

Defensive line.

Again the second-year players all got thicc. Paea, DIB and Jeter are all up near or past (in Jeter's case) 300 pouinds after 20+ gains. Kwity Paye's jump to 260 was something we heard about in spring, but Luigi Vilain's leap is probably more encouraging because his injury was still holding him back last spring. Carlo Kemp also put some proof to his spring hype by coming in at about the same size as Gary. Aubrey Solomon losing 10 pounds is not discouraging but I don't remember him carrying much bad weight. Mone at 335 is terrifying but also corroborates the spring chatter that he's topping out as more immovable object than unstoppable force.

Linebacker and Viper(!).

Uche as the second-heaviest linebacker on the roster  is something I didn't think I'd be seeing and probably good for him. Gil's 11 pounds are a great sign since his issue was size; Devin Bush's 11 pounds are probably something to keep the NFL from getting squirrely about a 220-pound doom squirrel. Surprised to see Singleton and Ross didn't gain that much but Brown likes them small.

Both Vipers are a lot bigger, about the size now that Bush was last year. Khaleke put proof to that in photos; Glasgow moved to Viper from strong safety and if he was able to play with that much more weight it's a good thing he did.

Safety.

All eyes are on JKP's tiny waist, which grew a few sizes but is still just 184—that was always a 2019 growth chart and he's on pace. Tyree Kinnel is the third guy lighting up Instagram with glistening new biceps at the beginning of fall and that's showing.

Cornerback.

David Long lost last season's chance to grow from his 2016 injury and he caught up—198 should be about his perfect size. Myles Sims is up to 183 which tracks with our belief he'll be the most likely freshman to be a true sophomore by this time next year.

Special teams.

I didn't put it on the chart but punter Brad Robbins is the biggest gainer on the team, up to 206 from 181. All 25 pounds are in his leg of course.

* You can take a snapshot of the event horizon but that won't be its current weight just the weight it shows when time stops.

This sounds like a lot of meat for the meat god.

Wanna hear about some walk-ons?

Just plausibly left-tackle shaped things please.

Freshman OL Griffin Korican is 6-6/305. Greg Robinson (NNTGERG) is down 8 pounds and to 6-6/280 so that's probably not happening. Dan Jokisch is up 28 pounds.

Is he 6-6?

He's 6-4 and that puts him at 279.

279 is like Michigan State tackle-sized.

Jess Speight is now 6-4/302. Presumably none of that is chicken fat.

Don't you have a 6-8 tight end you can put protein shakes into?

Carter Selzer is 6-8 and gained 12 pounds. He's a RS sophomore.

I'm listening.

He's now 234.

Height(!) Changes

These guys are all an inch taller than they were last year: Zach Gentry is now listed at 6-8. Deron Irving-Bey is 6-5. Devin Gil is 6-2. Ronnie Bell is 6-1. Casey Hughes the Utah transfer is 6-0 despite being 5-11 and 22 years old. Jon Runyan is 6-5.

6-5, that's big enough to play tackle!

You know people don't actually grow…

His dad is 6-10 or something it's happening

Number Changes

Tru Wilson is now 24 instead of "let's screw with Carl Grapentine" 27. Jacob West is #15 and a quarterback. Josh Uche is now #6 instead of #35! That's huge.

Huge! … Why is this huge?

Victor Hobson, David Bowens, Prescott Burgess, Paul Goebel as a junior in 1920…

Oh so roster overanalysis isn't just a once a year thing.

Not on the Roster:

Ran out of eligibility: Mason Cole, Mo Hurst, Mike McCray, Garrett Moores, Mo Hurst

You said Mo Hurst twice.

That second one was a reflexive sigh.

Oh. Transferred (you knew this) or left the program: Drake Harris (WMU), Ian Bunting, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Kekoa Crawford, Kareem Walker, Alex Malzone, Ja'Raymond Hall, Ty Wheatley Jr., Mo Ways, Wilton Speight.

Walk-ons not returned: Alex Kaminski, Austin Brenner, Brian Chu, Joe Beneducci, Nick Volk, Cheyenn Robertson, Ryan Tice, Conner Edmonds, Eric Tim, Evan Latham, Sean Fitzgerald, James "Doug" Foug.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO…..

They changed the rule.

….OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

They changed the rule! No more Foug'ing; no more Foug.

Any new walk-ons other than Korican catch your eye?

Jeff George Jr. and Berkeley Edwards both grad transferred in. There's a Kyle Grady.

As in Kelvin and Kevin?

No.

Freshman Numbers

 

Player Pos # Deep Significance
Joe Milton QB 5 Wangler! Also Tate.
Michael Barrett ATH 6 Softens the blow of losing both Kareem and Wheatley Jr at the same time.
Christian Turner RB 28 Fitz Toussaint shout-out
Hassan Haskins RB 25 Good RB number. Harlan Hukleby, Jon Vaughn, Rob Lytle for a year
Ben VanSumeren FB 20 Big Hart?
Ronnie Bell WR 8 Haven't had a good Avant YMRMFSPA lately.
Ryan Hayes TE 60 You sure you're a tight end?
Luke Schoonmaker TE 89 Ian Bunting did not leave because I kept yelling "Pitch it to Breaston" at him where did you hear that?
Mustapha Muhammad TE 85 Obviously went Kogering.
Jalen Mayfield OL 73 Dufektion.
Aidan Hutchinson DL 97 Hi dad.
Julius Welschof DL 96 The Sechsundneunzigiest zahl.
Taylor Upshaw SDE 91 Honoring Tom Seabron
Cameron McGrone LB 44 Swett!
Myles Sims CB 6 Like two Marlin Jacksons
Casey Hughes DB 35 Don Dufek, Tom Darden
Gemon Green DB 9 Marlin Jackson times three!
German Green DB 13 Marlin Jackson plus ten!
Vincent Gray DB 31 Marlin Jackson AND Braylon Edwards
Sammy Faustin DB 17 Dwight and Ivan Hicks, Otis Williams...guy knows his safeties
Jake Moody K 13 Why not 3?

Errata

Jared Wangler has moved to fullback. How's that transition going?

image

Evidently he's embracing it.

What does it all mean?

We're gonna be awesome!

Comments

Shop Smart Sho…

August 3rd, 2018 at 6:04 PM ^

I swear there was a kid at Purdue in the late 90's that they literally took to the Vet school to weigh because the football scales did top out at 350. I remember Drew Brees talking about it in class one day. I can't remember his name, but we did run into one night out at the bars, and he was the most massive human being I've ever seen in person. Like, would make Jake Long look small.

ish

August 3rd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

the weird thing about aubrey is that 287 is a little light for the one tech and for he and dwumfor to start together you'd want aubrey to be over 300.  maybe mone and jeter are going to man the one tech?

Farnn

August 3rd, 2018 at 5:18 PM ^

That's my thought as well, or Mone rotating with Furbush/Uche.  They have the depth now to have a full second platoon if they want to keep everyone fresh.  The only position without a true backup is Anchor but there was some insider talk of Paye potentially benefiting from Gary wearing out the LT.  So while it hasn't been announced, he may play over there more if Villain can capably back up Winovich.

Retnep

August 3rd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

The weight gains are eye popping to me. I don't ever recall ever seeing so many consistent gains across the board. That has to be the result of a change in S&C. Hopefully, the conditioning doesn't suffer.

Mongo

August 3rd, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^

Worth the wait !  This is the best roster review available. And nice pick up on Mayfield’s take of Billy Dufek’s #73 - both guys are from GR.  Hopefully Jalen can repeat as an All-American tackle!

reshp1

August 3rd, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^

Wait, what? Foug isn't on the team anymore? I get the rule changed, but you still need a kicker that can force the fair catch to happen consistently.

FL_Steve

August 3rd, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^

I like a lot of this, I only hope Hudson and Bush don't lose much speed @ 220 and 233 respectively, and Evans can still accelerate like lightning. Regardless, this looks like a much more competitive team!

DonAZ

August 3rd, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^

Gentry is now my "must watch" guy this year. If he has the same speed coupled with that height and size ... how in the hell do you defend that?

LKLIII

August 4th, 2018 at 12:36 AM ^

Yep. IF we can get protection & if Shea can make it 3-4 deep in his progressions, we’d be unstoppable. 

Maybe a team’s #1 or #2 cornerbacks could blanket our #1 and #2 receiving targets in any given game (or double team them).

But there is NO way any team would be deep enough to cover #3 or #4. Somebody—Gentry, McKeown, Collins, Perry, will be screamingly wide open on almost every single play. 

MGoStrength

August 3rd, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^

Disclaimer...not sure if our tackles can pass protect.  Assuming JBB will be one of our starting tackles and Bredeson (320), Ruiz (319), and Onwenu (350) are in the middle we are gonna mash people in the run game!  And, I'm guessing Gentry (262), DPJ (208) & Black (215) can block too.  We are gonna have a big offense in terms of size.

Sopwith

August 3rd, 2018 at 8:54 PM ^

Joe Milton might want to slow down a little or he's heading for JaMarcus Russell territory if not Jared Lorenzen. Pace yourself, young fella.