Tyler Nubin is a stud [Craig Lassag/AP]

The Enemy, Ranked 2023: Secondary + Wrap Up Comment Count

Alex.Drain August 23rd, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BackReceiversOffensive LineDefensive Line, Linebacker 

We have made it to the end of The Enemy, Ranked 2023. Just like last year, I'm counting DB-shaped HSPs as DBs, but in reality that really only affects one team on this ranking, which is Indiana's "HUSKY". Most teams here have five positions listed with the nickel being included because this is 2023 and most CFB teams play with 5 DBs most all of the time. At the end of the piece I will briefly drop in special teams rankings and then will wrap this whole series up by reviewing what we learned about the opponents on Michigan's 2023 schedule. 

 

12. East Carolina

CB CB S S
Shavon Revel Isaiah Brown-Murray Teagan Wilk Julius Wood
TyMir Brown Jonathon Jones Dontavius Nash  

This is pretty grim. On the plus side of things, Teagan Wilk and Julius Wood are a pair of returning safeties, two-thirds of last year's safety rotation. On the down side, they weren't particularly special. More concerning: the top four corners from last season and nickel Gerard Stringer all are out the door. Yikes!! The wreckage that remains are the following names: Shavon Revel (ex-JUCO who played sparingly last year), Isaiah Brown-Murray (3*, RS last year), Jonathon Jones (good at FCS Campbell), and TyMir Brown (ex-3* UNC down-transfer who never played for North Carolina). Take your pick of those names, it's likely not going to be pretty! This is bad even for a Group of 5 program and in the context of this list, ECU is easily last. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: more DB rooms]

 

[BGSU Athletics]

11. Bowling Green

CB CB S S NB
Jalen Burton Jordan Oladokun Trent Simms Shamoun Duncan-Niusulu Jordan Jackson
Jalen Huskey Deshawn Jones Jr. Steve Lubischer Darius Lorfils Patrick Day 

BGSU's secondary is in a demonstrably better place than that of East Carolina, with a trio of returning corners, but still enough question marks to keep them below a more-sturdy UNLV room among non-conference opponents. Those corners are the primary reason for optimism, Jalen BurtonJordan Oladokun, and Jordan Jackson. Of those three, Oladokun is the one approaching impact player status but there's nothing wrong with having three players with experience return and expecting further progression from each. Trent Simms is also back at safety, but like two of the corners he, too, has PFF grades in the 50s, indicating a level of play that will need to improve in order for this group to climb higher on the rankings. The other vacant starter spot may be Shamoun Duncan-Nisulu's, but nickel Patrick Day could give it a go, same with Steve Lubischer

 

10. UNLV

CB CB S S NB
Cameron Oliver Ricky Johnson Jonathan Baldwin Jaxen Turner Jarrae Williams
Jett Elad Davone Walden Jr.   Jordyn Morgan Jalen Frazier

I debated putting UNLV ahead of the next team on the list, because I do think it's close (and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up out-producing the team at #9), but for talent reasons, I opted to leave the Rebels here. That said, there are reasons to be optimistic about this DB room. They return four starters and add a P5 starter from Arizona in Jaxen Turner, who I do expect to supplant returner Jordyn Morgan (yes, it's spelled differently) as the starter at FS. The other returning safety, Jonathan Baldwin, is a quality Gof5 player who has a shot to be All-MWC this season. That's a nice place to start off. Jarrae Williams slots in as a returning nickel and Cameron Oliver as a returning outside corner, both of whom were fine for the team last season, while they are filling a hole at CB2. Options include Ricky Johnson and Jett Elad, the latter of whom had a strong spring. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

9. Indiana

CB CB S S HUSKY
Jamier Johnson Kobee Minor Josh Sanguinetti Louis Moore Noah Pierre
Nic Toomer Jamari Sharpe   Tyrik McDaniel  

Guess what, Michigan State? You're not last (among B1G opponents)! The decimated Indiana secondary gets docked one slot below a Spartan DB room that has been the worst in America the last couple seasons for purely continuity/experience reasons, though I did debate leaving them higher because of Tom Allen's better track record with DBs. That said, the aforementioned track record was called into some question when multiple multi-year starters got significantly worse last season for the Hoosiers and now all of the pieces that once constituted a weirdly good Hoosier secondary back in 2019 and 2020 (fake) have moved on. The only returning starter is their HSP Noah Pierre, who plays the "HUSKY", my favorite weird position name in college football. He's okay. 

The rest looks really grim at this time. Josh Sanguinetti at least has been a recurring background character on their depth chart for a few years but has yet to be starter caliber and then the other three spots are untested and/or transfers. S Louis Moore played two years at JUCO and then played only 33 snaps last season on defense for IU. He's a projected starter, with another JUCO transfer behind him as the third option. At corner, they fished Kobee Minor out of Texas Tech and Jamier Johnson out of Texas. The catch is, neither played a substantial role for their teams, both under 150 snaps.

And if either of them don't start, it may be Nic Toomer, who was a rotational corner at Stanford. When you toss in Jamari Sharpe, who redshirted in 2022, none of these guys have any substantial CFB experience (Toomer has the most), and none of the limited snaps they've played have demonstrated in any way that they are potential impact pieces. Also, only Jamier Johnson was inside the top 800 in the composite of the year they came out of HS(!) and now all but one have a transfer involved too. It's looking pretty terrible in Bloomington.  

 

[Bryan Fuller]

8. Michigan State

CB CB S S Nk
Charles Brantley Chester Kimbrough Jaden Mangham Dillon Tatum Angelo Grose
Semar Melvin Terry Roberts   Malik Spencer  

In a world where any of the non-conference foes have competent Gof5 DB rooms, IU and MSU would be in the 11-10 range, but that's not the world we live in. Oh well, rejoice at being 8th, MSU fans! Michigan State loses some of the pieces off their defense last year, three nominal starters in Ameer Speed at corner and then Xavier Henderson and Kendell Brooks, but it's not like they soaked up all the snaps and many of these replacements did see some time, which is the case for ranking MSU ahead of Indiana. The two returning starters are Charles Brantley, a corner who has shown me little in two years at MSU except for the INT to seal the 2021 MSU-Michigan game. Angelo Grose was once a safety and is now a nickel, also not particularly good. "Multi-year starter in a DB room among the worst in the P5 for two years running" is not really a ringing endorsement. 

Chester Kimbrough was probably the best corner they had last year, so getting him back out of the portal was a bit of a win for Mel Tucker. Still not anywhere close to star territory. The transfer corners that MSU got to be reserves this season are moderately intriguing, Semar Melvin less so as a corner who struggled to get on the field at Wisconsin but Terry Roberts was once decent at Iowa. Not ideal to see a down-transfer in terms of secondary rooms, but if you want to get competent DBs, there are worse places to look than Iowa. That said, if Roberts is not beating out Brantley, it's likely not happening. 

The safeties are fresher faces. Jaden Mangham played some last year and didn't stand out to me in any major way but he is a 4* true sophomore, so improvement is expected. Speaking of 4* true sophomores, Dillon Tatum! The West Bloomfield product is a player Spartan Nation has pegged considerable hopes on, so development from him is crucial too. In totality, it's hard to see this group getting a ton better because it's a lot of the same faces, but there is perhaps upside to be tapped into with the safeties. And at the very least, comparing it to Indiana, MSU is internally promoting more than scouring the trash heap for transfer DBs. This room has more talent and a bit more continuity, so they edge ahead of Indiana for 8th. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

7. Purdue 

CB CB S S
Marquis Wilson Salim Turner-Muhammad Cam Allen Sanoussi Kane
Braxton Myers Botros Alisandro   Anthony Brown

Ryan Walters strolls into Purdue and some of his DB sorcery is going to be needed in year one to get this group to where it needs to be. I should first note that there's no fifth box here because I'm not exactly sure how Purdue's defense will look under Walters. If it's like Illinois', they should have a fifth DB called the "STAR" but I haven't seen that noted on any of the online depth charts, so I'm holding off until we see them this year. Walters does have the benefit of a pair of returning starters at safety in Cam Allen and Sanoussi Kane, neither of whom were abject trainwrecks but neither were stars either. With Walters' coaching, perhaps they can progress forwards towards quality play in 2023. 

The corner position, though, is where help is definitely needed: not a single scholarship corner from last season returns for the Boilers in 2023. Salim Turner-Muhammad got some action at Stanford over four years, but never progressed into a true starter. I'm not terribly optimistic that he can progress into that sort of player, but if there's anyone who could try and coax it out of him, it's Ryan Walters. The recent exit of Jamari Brown means the other spot is a bit up in the air between a horde of transfers. I have Marquis Wilson listed as the starter, since he played 248 snaps at Penn State last season and PFF graded him out okay. When you're playing real snaps at one of the best secondaries in the country, that to me gives you reason for optimism. Especially because the other options are very much untested, a pair of Ole Miss transfers Braxton Myers and Markevious Brown, JUCO corner Botros Alisandro, or a 3* Tr Fr like Zion Gunn. These corners won't be good, but the safeties also shouldn't be terrible. They should have good coaching. That's enough to get them to 7th over Indiana and MSU. 

 

6. Nebraska

CB CB S S Nk
Quinton Newsome Malcolm Hartzog Omar Brown Marques Buford Jr. Isaac Gifford
Tommi Hill   Corey Collier Phalen Sanford  

The most stable part of Nebraska's defense entering 2023 is the secondary room, which returns four out of five starters from last season and was planning on retaining the fifth until further off-the-field issues intervened with Myles Farmer. None of these players are stars, some toe the line of bad, but there were no cyans among these four players on last year's FFFF diagram when the Huskers came to Ann Arbor. That right there zooms Nebraska up above the three B1G opponents on this list previously! Quinton Newsome is a corner that Husker message boards don't seem to like but I had no problem with him in the game I charted last year and neither did PFF. Nickel Isaac Gifford is in the same boat as Newsome for me. Malcolm Hartzog is undersized and was clearly a cut below Newsome last season but for a Who Dat recruit starting in the P5 as a true freshman, nothing to scoff at.

Safety may have a few more questions, with Marques Buford Jr. mostly being fine. The one open spot on this depth chart may be won by Omar Brown, an FCS star at Northern Iowa who transferred to Nebraska last offseason but didn't play much last year for the Huskers. Idk, he's probably okay. If not, Corey Collier is a former top 150 recruit for Florida who saw little time in Gainesville and has transferred in. Unless Matt Rhule's staff can coach one of these guys up (which is possible), Nebraska doesn't project to have a star but no weak spots and plenty of returning production is more than enough to check in at #6 on the list. 

 

[Paul Sherman]

5. Rutgers

CB CB S S Nk
Max Melton Robert Longerbeam Desmond Igbinosun Flip Dixon Shaquan Loyal
Eric Rogers Kessawn Abraham   Thomas Amankwaa  

Rutgers loses some good players at safety and corner, yet are still in a very reasonable position coming into this 2023 season in the secondary. The headliner of this DB room is Max Melton, a cornerback who has been able to move past off the field shenanigans to become a quality B1G starter for the Scarlet Knights. Though they lose the nominal starter opposite him from last season, Christian Braswell (who was also pretty good), both Robert Longerbeam and Kessawn Abraham have played 400+ snaps in one of the past two years. Longerbeam logged 475 for RU last season and was fine. Abraham was a legit starter who got some buzz in 2021 before injuries hit last year. I'd bet Greg Schiano is very comfortable with that competition, and that's going on at the outside while I project Shaquan Loyal as a plenty competent nickel (he could play safety too). 

Assuming Loyal is at nickel, I have safety being held down by Desmond Igbinosun and Flip Dixon, which is likely a real drop-off over last year's Christian Izien and Avery Young, but it shouldn't be a catastrophic drop. Igbinosun did play significant snaps and as a now-true junior, should be rounding into proper form. Rutgers somehow stole Dixon from Minnesota via the portal, who has the potential to be an adequate player in his own right after playing only 400 snaps for the Gophers last year (very close to starter status). Like Nebraska there may not be true stars here (though Melton may be), but I don't see obvious weak spots and I am a fan of what Schiano has built up here in the secondary for Rutgers, enough to take #5 on this list. 

 

4. Minnesota 

CB CB S S Nk
Justin Walley Tyler Bride Tyler Nubin Darius Green Jack Henderson
Tariq Watson Tre'Von Jones   Coleman Bryson  

The Minnesota secondary has a case for having the best single DB on Michigan's schedule outside of a certain corner for Penn State at #1, and he may have a case over him. That would be S Tyler Nubin, and his star power is what ranks the Gophers at 4th on our list. He does everything you want a safety to do, find the ball, hit, don't miss a tackle, and that is what has him tracking towards the first round of the NFL Draft. Really good! Justin Walley returns at corner also and he showed good coverage skills in 2022, enough to be an asset in the Minnesota secondary in spite of tackling ups and downs. 

Those two players give Minnesota a reasonable floor, but there are some holes to plug through transfers. Tyler Bride comes in via Georgia Southern, while Tre'Von Jones arrives via Elon. RS Fr Tariq Watson is also an option to place the departed Terrell Smith at corner. I'm not sure which direction they go, the transfers have been solid in college but are facing a huge step up in competition, so they may need to be seen on the field before making a full decision. However, like with nickel Jack Henderson (elite FCS player at Southeastern Louisiana) and safety Darius Green (internal promotion), I'm giving some benefit of the doubt to Minnesota and the good defensive track record they've established under PJ Fleck. It's that track record, plus the return of Nubin, that puts them up to 4th on our list, but the margins aren't terribly wide between them or the teams at 5/6 (or frankly, 2/3). 

 

[Patrick Barron]

3. Maryland

CB CB S S Nk
Ja'Quan Sheppard Corey Coley Jr. Dante Trader Jr. Beau Brade Tarheeb Still
Gavin Gibson Lionell Whitaker   Avantae Williams  

I wasn't terribly high on Maryland's DBs going into last season but then they really surprised me and had a pretty good year, sending both Jakorian Bennett (4th rounder) and Deonte Banks (1st rounder!!) off to the NFL. That means the cornerback room is a little uncertain, but they do still have three returning starters in the secondary overall and picked up a transfer starter from Cincinnati (nothing to scoff at). Let's start with the returners, safeties Dante Trader Jr. and Beau Brade, who finished as Maryland's top two tacklers last season (never something you want to say about safeties, but that's more of an indictment of the front seven to me). Brade was a favorite of mine last year, the Dangerman on FFFF, while Trader was cyan'd, but his PFF grades were much better later in the year, so I reckon if I'd done the diagram again in November, he'd have been freed from that distinction. One star and one player who should approach decency, with Miami transfer Avantae Williams as a third option. 

The corner position is a bit more uncertain but there are some talented players. Tarheeb Still returns as a nondescript nickel option, while the corner roles seem to be split between Cincy transfer and All-AAC selection Ja'Quan Sheppard and returners Corey Coley Jr. and Gavin Gibson, now 3rd and 2nd year players, respectively. Sheppard is an interesting case, lauded at Cincy but the PFF scores disagree and Seth (in HTTV) thinks the hardware was a function of Sheppard being thrown at a lot and thus racking up PBUs. Either way, he's a player who started at a legit program and that's not nothing. Coley and Gibson have both shown moments as underclassmen and now are looking to build on those performances. I am certainly not in love with Maryland's secondary, but it has a little more stability than Minnesota's and after putting two corners in the NFL, they are starting to build a bit more of a track record. Again, the margins between 6-2 on this list are very small, none of these rooms I'd really classify as "good", but 3rd was the spot I felt most comfortable placing the turtles. 

 

2. Ohio State

CB CB S S Nk
Denzel Burke Jordan Hancock Ja'Had Carter Lathan Ransom Sonny Styles
Jyaire Brown Davison Igbinosun Josh Proctor Cam Martinez  

Man do I hate ranking OSU second given what happened to them at the end of last season but at the same time, was there a better argument? Iowa's not on the schedule, neither is Illinois, and I don't love any of the teams from 3-5 on this list. But neither do I love the Buckeye secondary by any means, and they are closer to 3 than 1 on this list. So keep that in mind. 

Ohio State's secondary returns two starters rather infamous for performances in The Game over the past two seasons, Lathan Ransom (everything that happened in 2022) and Denzel Burke (multiple devastating deep shots vs. Cornelius Johnson). Yeah. Now look, neither are outright bad players, at least not against most opponents in Ransom's case. For him, he has to figure out how to play against elite competition, as his three worst performances last season were against Michigan, Georgia, and PSU per PFF grades and the ole eye test. For Burke, it's a matter of taking a step forward after flatlining in 2022, a year that blunted hopes that his promising freshman 2021 campaign will end up with him in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. 

[Patrick Barron]

It's actually the other players in this secondary that I like a bit more than those returning starters. The Buckeyes fished Ja'Had Carter out of the portal from Syracuse and Davison Igbinosun from Ole Miss. Most mysterious to me is the fact that Igbinosun, who was a solid SEC starter at Ole Miss (who Michigan pursued in the portal), is battling Jordan Hancock in fall camp, a younger player who has not yet shown much at the FBS level. As for Carter, he was also an acceptable P5 starter at Syracuse and may have an inside track to a starting role over longtime OSU safety Josh Proctor, though Proctor is probably the first safety off the bench. If there is a player to somewhat spooked by here, it may be 5* sophomore Sonny Styles, a truly freakish athlete who could be a tremendous asset in covering TEs as a nickel. 

How do we tie this OSU DB room together? Burke, while not spectacular, is a multi-year starter with underlying talent. Igbinosun (if he starts) and Carter are both P5 starters who shouldn't be sore spots. Styles is a 5*, even Ransom was good against 9 of the 12 teams on the schedule. There is some experienced depth in the case of Martinez and Proctor. Is that better than Maryland? Idk, probably? The baseline talent and and the results of last year on the whole, against most teams on the schedule, were good enough to put OSU tentatively here among a general mid-off between teams ranked 2-6 on this list. Please bring on someone with an actually good secondary though!!! 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

1. Penn State

CB CB S S Nk
Kalen King Johnny Dixon Keaton Ellis Zakee Wheatley Daequan Hardy
Cam Miller Elliot Washington II   Jaylen Reed  

Another defensive ranking where the Nittanys take the top spot. PSU was an elite pass defense last season and have a considerable amount of production returning. Some may look at the above chart and wonder how they return two starting corners given the departed Joey Porter Jr., but JPJ actually played fewer snaps than Johnny Dixon last season due to injury. Thus Dixon gets the nominal returning starter label. Also of note, Dixon played pretty well and when paired with Kalen King, one of the B1G's very best corners, that's an excellent 1-2 punch at an extremely important position. Nickel Daequan Hardy does bring the mood down a bit after a very bumpy season that saw him demoted at times, but it's not like he is inexperienced either. If needed, Cam Miller is a 4* player in his second year who got on the field some last year and Elliot Washington II is a 4* true freshman, at a position where young players can often succeed right away. 

Up at the safety level PSU loses Ji'Ayir Brown, which is a bummer, but the returning Keaton Ellis was fine and should take a step forward in his second year as a starter after taking over for Jaquan Brisker last season. Penn State under Franklin also has an excellent track record when it comes to developing safeties, so I have to think Ellis is in good hands. The same could be said for whoever wins the battle to replace Brown, be it Zakee Wheatley or Jaylen Reed (not to be confused with the ex-Spartan WR Jayden Reed). Both logged over 350 snaps last season and should continue to progress. The PSU DB room has everything you want, lots of players with experience, a bona fide stud/1st round pick caliber starter, and gaping weak spots (Hardy is the closest to it). They are first on this list by a considerable margin over the Bucks and will be the toughest pass defense JJ McCarthy sees this regular season. 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

Where would Michigan rank? 

Typically I don't do a chart for Michigan, because all of us Michigan fans are familiar with the depth chart, but let's do it just for the heck of it: 

CB CB S S Nk
Will Johnson Josh Wallace Rod Moore Makari Paige Mike Sainristil
Ja'Den McBurrows Amorion Walker Keon Sabb Quinten Johnson Zeke Berry

At least at the starter level, only Nebraska on this list brings back the same amount of production as Michigan. Will Johnson ended up playing more snaps than Gemon Green, so he gets the starter tag and then both safeties + Sainristil were all clear starters, meaning 4/5 return. Toss in Josh Wallace, a multi-year FBS starter (albeit not P5), and that's a pretty veteran place to be. Given that Moore/Paige are both All-B1G caliber safeties, Sainristil is as good as there is at nickel, and Will Johnson is a superstar in the making (if not already there), we should basically just be having a discussion of Michigan vs. PSU for the purpose of this list (again, Iowa's inclusion would make it more interesting but alas). 

Breaking down Michigan against Penn State, Will Johnson vs. Kalen King is probably close to a push, or at least merely a marginal advantage in some direction. Wallace vs. Dixon is similar too, but you likely lean Dixon given he's played in the B1G before. Michigan has the advantage at both safety spots and nickel. Depth-wise, I do think that PSU has the edge given that some of their backups have actually played real roles, while Michigan's are quite green (albeit very talented players). What's the summation? Like LBs I think it's pretty close but based on giving weight to the starters, I do lean towards Michigan, especially when both teams have one wobbly-ish spot, outside CB2 for Michigan and nickel for PSU. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Special Teams???

I am not doing a full post on special teams because I don't have enough to say, nor will I say a ton here. But these are my special teams rankings so we can include them in the conclusion below:

1.) Indiana

2.) Penn State

3.) Ohio State

4.) Rutgers

5.) Nebraska

6.) Maryland

7.) Minnesota

8.) Bowling Green 

9.) Purdue

10.) MSU

11.) ECU

12.) UNLV 

The team that would no doubt be #1 but isn't on the schedule is Iowa. In which case, Indiana takes the top spot on this ranking after finishing 39th in the FEI special teams ranking last season and now they return punter James Evans and more importantly, 1st Team All-B1G return man Jaylin Lucas. There is a new kicker for the Hoosiers, but I liked what they offer a bit more than PSU, a team with a transfer kicker/punter, though both seem promising. PSU's ranking is bolstered by consistently good special teams ratings in the Franklin tenure, including a 27th-placed finish last season in the FEI numbers. 

Ohio State loses Noah Ruggles at K, who, outside of the devastating missed kick against Georgia, was an awesome kicker for them. The return of Jesse Mirco does keep them in the top five. Nebraska I expect to move up with lots of returning production and a new coach who should care vastly more about special teams than Scott Frost ever did. Taking up the rear are ECU and UNLV, both of whom finished beyond 100 in the FEI ratings last season and both see some new pieces sliding into the lineup. Among B1G foes, Michigan State ranks at the bottom after losing Bryce Baringer, the star punter who was the sole reason the Spartans were "only" 72nd in FEI. All new punter, kicker, and punt returners means the green & white have a lot to prove on special teams in 2023. 

If Michigan were on this list, I'd probably rate them second, slightly above Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the comparable for Michigan, new kicker/punter but a very strong record of special teams success. Michigan finished top 10 in FEI special teams ratings in each of the last four full seasons (not counting 2020) and it wouldn't shock me if it happens again given the recruiting hype for Tommy Doman and the level of play showed by James Turner in 2020 and 2022. Michigan's track record is superior to PSU, even if PSU's under Franklin is good, but I'll leave them just below Indiana out of deference for Indiana's returning production compared to a bit of an unknown with Michigan losing Moody, Robbins, and AJ Henning, even if there's a lot of reason to feel good about it. 

 

The Enemy, Wrapped 

Here is the condensed graphic showing the summary of my rankings in the 2023 The Enemy series: 

Last year I offered a ranking of opponents in the wrap-up, one that didn't end up being too useful because I was too low on Maryland/Illinois and too high on Nebraska/MSU but oh well, here we go again: 

1. PSU/OSU 

2. Minnesota/Maryland 

3. MSU/Purdue/Rutgers/Nebraska 

4. Indiana

5. ECU/UNLV/BGSU 

Perhaps my main takeaway from doing this exercise was the manner in which I got progressively less scared of the schedule. Not to say I was scared to begin with, but I definitely felt coming in that the schedule was harder than 2022. After going through each positional group, I'm not entirely sure. The 2023 schedule is probably harder, but only marginally so... if anything, the main way it's harder is probably that the second tier games + MSU are on the road this year whereas last year MSU, Illinois, and Maryland were all at home (though Iowa was on the road). But it's more splitting hairs than I expected. 

Michigan's schedule is easier in part because they miss Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois, who are probably the top three in the B1G West this season (teams I will be breaking down in a separate post tomorrow). Those teams are the strongest in the trenches and have some of the best secondaries in the conference. Missing them is how OSU ended up 1st in OL and 2nd in DB even though I am in no way scared of those units (OL in particular could be a weak spot for that team). As I noted in those posts, I was decisively unenthused by the offerings that the schedule has at DL (DT especially) and OL, meaning that Michigan should be able to push their opponents around in the trenches week-in and week-out. The layout at QB (Michigan also got off the hook avoiding Tanner Mordecai (WIS) and Cade McNamara (IA)) as well is quite grim and the secondaries I ran through in this piece are not particularly inspiring. 

[Patrick Barron]

So back to the opponent rating overall, how do we feel? Penn State and Ohio State are pretty clearly the top two opponents on the schedule and after doing this, I'm not sure how far apart they are this season. Both teams have wildcards at QB, strong RB rooms, OSU obviously much better at WR, but OL/DL not too far apart either, while PSU is ahead at LB/DB. After those two teams there's a clear step down to Minnesota and Maryland, who are both decent teams but with flaws on their rosters, Maryland's in the trenches and Minnesota's being a team without obvious All-B1G players who can change a game outside of safety Tyler Nubin. If you want to toss Michigan State into that second tier given it's on the road and #rivalry (+ the spookiness that often happens in that game), go ahead, but in terms of talent, they look more like tier 3. 

I did come away with the belief that Purdue might not be in as dire of a position this season as I expected, but I still see them in an uphill battle to bowl eligibility much like their tier 3 compadres Rutgers/MSU/Nebraska. Indiana is rock bottom among B1G teams I looked at, the closest to the non-con foes, who all occupy a tier 5 of "bad!". If you made me pick which non-con foe might be the most dangerous, I would probably pick UNLV but all three of those teams are also in a battle for bowl eligibility. 

My final note here is about Michigan's place on this ranking. I said they would've ranked 1st on QB, RB, OL, DL, said they were at ~1.5 among LB/DB, and put them 2nd on special teams. Only on receivers did the Wolverines rank lower than top two and they still are far from a bad position on that rankings (I had them ~4th). Which is a long way of saying that at least in the first 12 games, Michigan is going to be better than every team they face this season. This is an All-In sort of year and based on talent, a B1G Championship should be the expectation. 

Comments

Buy Bushwood

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^

Well, we also paved them even worse in 2016, and they went on to win the B1G that year, and crushed us almost as bad the next year.  Happy Valley is the most difficult venue we play in.  However, to win on the road, "pack your defense" and we do have that going for us.  But it could be a low scoring affair like 2021, in which a TO or mistake here or there, litigates the outcome.  Those are tough games when on the road.  Hopefully the coaching staff will recognize that the game was broken open last year by JJ running the ball and also use modern day capricious blitzer (similar to Greg Robinson) Manny Diaz's aggressiveness against him rather than run straight into it for a half.  

Blue In NC

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^

The outcome of the game was not a fluke but I think that PSU out-schemed itself, Michigan had the counters and made PSU's otherwise solid defense look terrible.  So the way that game played out was a bit of an oddity.  I think PSU will be much tougher, especially at home.  It could arguably even be more difficult than the OSU game.

AZBlue

August 23rd, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^

I don't totally disagree, but you also have to remember that 14 of PSU's 17 points came as a result of that fluke Pick-6 and a complete bust / missed-assignment on a QB 70 yard QB run. 

Michigan otherwise dominated the first half stats.  The big run plays from scheme adjustments didn't happen until after halftime.

JHumich

August 23rd, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^

I didn't expect Maryland to be a trap, or Rutgers a possible challenge in a freak occurrence, but here we are. On to the games!

Thank you for the write-ups. 

elm

August 23rd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^

If Rutgers could figure out how to field a competent offense, they might actually become a good team. Not gonna happen this year unless Wimsatt absolutely explodes (in a good way), and perhaps not even then, but Schiano can build a defense. If they can generate any defensive or ST touchdowns, they might be able to keep it somewhat close.

mgogobermouch

August 23rd, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^

The PSU DB room has everything you want, lots of players with experience, a bona fide stud/1st round pick caliber starter, and gaping weak spots

Personally, I'd prefer a DB room with no gaping weak spots, but maybe that adds a bit of excitement.

 

Nitpicking about typos aside, thanks, Alex, for an excellent series!

RationalBuckeye

August 23rd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^

Just a small correction re: Ohio State corners — Hancock is a year more experienced than Igbinosun. He's battled injuries since he got to Columbus and was on track to start next to Burke last season (for whatever that's worth) before a hamstring injury caused him to miss time and kept him from being 100% when he came back. Most people think he can be solid if he stays healthy but he's not really showed any indication of being able to that. 

 

tragictones

August 23rd, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^

I listen to a lot of 11W and OSU 247 podcasts.  Over last couple of years, when the hosts discuss expectations for the OSU defense (player development), they claim X player will have a breakout year, X player will make a leap, etc...You can tell by their language and tone that the podcasters lack conviction.  They don't really REALLY buy what they're saying about most defensive players.  But, I'm a bit intimidated by the hype/podcast discussion about the younger Styles.  Seems like true confidence for once.  Seems to be pretty universal opinion (with conviction) that he's going to be very good.

tragictones

August 23rd, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^

Fair point about "breakout" expectations (I read plenty of that here)

I gotta say, Alex.Drain's DL write-up reeked of bias on exactly this point.  A "optimism for me, none for thee" write-up.  For instance, 4 times in his Michigan portion he expressed that a jump, leap or breakout was expected:  "then a player in Derrick Moore where it's reasonable to expect a sizable step forward (1) and the same could be said (2) for Braiden McGregor with another year removed from his HS injury...Kris Jenkins was already a quality player last year and now we're hearing rumblings about another leap forward  (3)...If Graham also takes a leap, as is reasonable to expect (4) like with Derrick Moore"

Moore- reasonable to expect leap

McGregor- resonable to expect leap

Jenkins- probable leap, cause there are rumblins'

Graham- reasonable to expect leap

But, for OSU, it was all skepticism: "JTT could make another jump and get to Chase Young/Bosa territory, but he needs to actually do it- and do it against quality competition- before I coronate him (1)....Kenyatta Jackson and Caden Curry, while talented, are young (both second year) and unproven (2)... Ty Hamilton was next in terms of usage, a nominal returning starter, but I was also not terribly convinced about his prowess...I wouldn't be shocked if one or two make a leap to being a legitimate problem, but we shall see if they get there."  

JTT- Need proof

Jackson & Curry- unproven

Hamilton- overrated

Overview- possible leap, but need proof

 

Underhill's Gold

August 23rd, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^

You've identified asymmetry, and that's always worth looking into to double check. But you failed to identify anything that's actually wrong. You're just assuming it's wrong b/c it is asymmetric. That's a great way to get faulty analysis. And it's a really weak position for the level of critique you're pointing at the OP. 

For myself, it seems clear after watching Moore and Graham that there is every reason to expect a leap. Jenkins is more about trusting insider talk. I myself am doubtful McGregor will take a leap, but there is a reasonable logic behind believing he will. 

I do not know the OSU those players at all, so I have no idea whether it's reasonable to expect a leap there. Do you know? Or are you just expecting an equal amount of improvement between players on different teams. If you watch CFB closely, you'll note that's not how it works. 

tragictones

August 24th, 2023 at 12:39 AM ^

I do think there is a problem with the asymmetry.  The data is asymmetric because Alex.Drain is inconsistent.  When a researcher/analyst interprets/codes their data with bias, it's a problem.  Here's an example.

Adisa Isaac had a pretty darn good year last year.  4th most qb pressures among B1G DL, 4th most TFL among B1G DL.  He led PSU in tackles for loss.  He's projected as a 2nd-4th round pick.  He ruptured his Achilles in 2021, didn't play that year. So he had a pretty nice year only one year removed from major injury.  Shouldn't a second year removed from injury lead Alex.Drain to be optimistic about a leap?  No, they wrote "Can he become a dominant, every-down pass rusher who can also be trusted against the run? Adisa Isaac probably isn't going to become that, though he was a decent player as a starting EDGE a year ago."  No hint of optimism. Isaac is what he is. Decent.

Yet, for Braiden McGregor, Alex.Drain wrote, "it's reasonable to expect a sizable step forward and the same could be said for Braiden McGregor with another year removed from his HS injury."  So, an extra year removed for injury leads to optimism in one case, but not the other???

One more example...Alex.Drain cites PPF when it suits them, and diminishes it when it doesn't.  To paraphrase.  "I wasn't impressed with JTT and PFF backs me up.  Yeah, I know PFF loved Chop Robinson, but I don't agree, think he's a bit overrated."  What's the point of even citing PFF if you are that inconsistent?

Buy Bushwood

August 23rd, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^

None of this hand-wringing about your secondary will matter if we get to The Game with a healthy Blake Corum (a big if given his injury history).  He is on another level, and would have cut you all into confetti last year.  Before his injury, he had 100 yards before the half against Illinois, the best run defense on our schedule, and all Illinois was trying to do was stop the run.  You simply don't have the DL or the DC to stand up to Corum and our OL.  We are now built specifically toward your weakness (which is buckling under 60 minutes of trench warfare).  There's nothing you can do about it, since your coach professes an NFL passing approach, and he chose to hire a Big 12 DC. You never get any practice or games against anyone like us.  You can pretend the last two years were close.  But they were only close until you crumbled late.  That's the whole point of a Harbaugh team. We now have an OL so deep that our 2nd team is better than any other OL in the conference.      

Bo Harbaugh

August 23rd, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^

yes, but his point stands.

Both teams playing peak performance favors UM due to superior line talent and development.

Scheme is huge as OSU just isn't built to battle in the trenches for 60 min.

That said, OSU can absolutely beat UM with a few big plays, turnovers or a poor showing form our coaches or players.  

Denarded

August 23rd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^

Penn State feels like the scariest team on this list, but feel reassured when you look at Penn State's DT's lineup 6'1 300, 6'3 290, 6'3 285, 6'1 280 and Michigan running for 420 yards last year, I think they matchup very well vs Nittany. 

Throw in losing Parker Washington and Brenton Strange with an immobile QB, I don't see Penn State's offense threatening Michigan's secondary much. While Michigan's DL matches up well with Penn State's run game. 

tragictones

August 23rd, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^

Three different PSU offensive coordinators have beaten Harbaugh (Moorhead, Rahne, Ciarrocca).  However, Pry was the defensive coordinator for all three wins.

I don't really get peoples', dare I say, reverence? for Joe Moorhead.  Ok/mediocre at Miss St.  And, Oregon's offense (total yards per game) was better before he got there (39th) and after he left (6th).  They were 49th and 51st in Moorhead's two seasons.  Not a big believer in Moorhead.  Even PSU proved you don't need Moorhead to beat Michigan or win 11 games.

The Homie J

August 23rd, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^

If you look at it game by game, the 2020 game just gets thrown right out (Cade was hurt, Milton sucked).  Our defense was a hodgepodge of 2nd/3rd stringers and whoever wasn't hurt or sick with Covid.  No credit there.

2019 felt like a game we pissed away rather than a brillant gameplan from their coaches.  They racked up a few quick scores, then proceeded to nearly the blow game at home.  They were literally a dropped pass in the endzone from going to OT.  Feel free to give credit to Rahne for that one, but it was not impressive imo.

That 2017 squad though was legit.  Easily the best offense of Franklin's tenure.  I won't vouch for Moorhead outside of his Penn State tenure, as he's dealt with personal issues I believe, and clearly doesn't the have the magic he had then.  But Moorhead took a hobbled, underdeveloped Penn State squad with a new QB to a B1G title after a rough start, and then had the 2017 version on the precipice of the CFP until JT Barrett went insane in the 4th quarter of their game.

tragictones

August 23rd, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^

I disagree with a number of things you said, but I'll try to be polite and just say we have a difference of opinion.   

I'm not a Joe Moorhead fan, and I don't think he was as good at PSU as most people do.  But, I will say, in my opinion, that his game plan against OSU 2016 was absolutely why PSU won the B1G and Harbaugh's 2016 game plan against OSU was absolutely why Michigan did not win the B1G.  Moorhead had the best running back in the country, yet he knew that his O-line wasn't going to get the job done against OSU's excellent D-Line.  He only ran Saquon 12 times.  He just kept chucking deep balls.  PSU hit 6 plays over 20 yards (and two other 19 yard gains.)  Moorhead forgo the option of sustained drives and kept swinging for the fences. (People on this board think that game was a fluke, but that was the game plan).  Harbaugh, on the other hand, chose to run the ball into OSU's excellent D-Line 43 times for 2 yards a carry.  Michigan only had 2 plays of 20 plus yards.  

For the record, I am aware that Speight had a broken collar bone (or something) and the deep ball probably wasn't a great option.  So, I'm not saying Harbaugh had a lot of options...but 43 carries for 91 yards?  Recipe for an L.

kehnonymous

August 23rd, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^

Thanks again for this series, Alex.  It's always a fun read, more so when we're #1 in most of the categories.  I almost enjoyed this as much as Draftageddon! ;)

If anyone wants a cheap laugh, you can compare and contrast Alex's fine work with this 11W genius' rankings of the top 30 players in the conference.  For your keyboards' sakes, I suggest you all read it while not drinking anything but my guy has two OSU secondary players in the top 30, if that tells you anything.

GET OFF YOUR H…

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^

Well considering this article is posted by a staff member on this blog, and that article is some random poster posting his top 30 in a forum, it's a pretty big stretch to act like that is 11W content.  Maybe we can dig into the forums here and find something more comparable to the "article" you just linked on 11W.

It's fun to take digs, but comparing a forum post to a staff article and trying to pass them off as the same thing is a waste of time.

Bo Harbaugh

August 23rd, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^

LOLz.  That list is shit.  OSU so delusional.  That list would suggest they'll be putting out a 2001 Miami Hurricanes or 2004 USC Trojans level team. 

Nobody on their D-line or secondary deserves to be in the top 30 after last year.

And Tommy "Two Thumbs" Eichenberg?  Yeah, I remember him...He works for The Don

 

mgoja

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^

It would be really interesting to see a brief summary of Michigan's position groups written from the opponent's perspective. 

Who are the guys we are hoping for big leaps from this year that our opponents (or their sportswriters) view as having been ordinary performers last year? 

And where might they be underestimating us? Probably everywhere because of a desire to wish their assessments into existence -- definitely QB and WR and potentially every position group on the defense.

elm

August 23rd, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^

My guess is they'd be much further down on our secondary then we are. They'd look at our CB2 spot with deep concern as it's a transfer from a bad FBS team, a converted WR, and someone who's always been injured and probably don't rate Paige as highly as we do. They also probably don't rate Johnson as highly if they're looking only at season stats.

elm

August 23rd, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^

I agree with you. I don't know if all fans of other teams would agree. We know that some people put PSU's secondary, at least, clearly ahead of our, as was discussed on the Roundtable last week and it wouldn't surprise me if fans of other teams overlook just how good Moore and, especially, Paige are or how already transcendently good Will Johnson was in the last few games last year.

Blau

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^

A very comprehensive breakdown indeed. 

One thing I've noticed is that for the most part, both the offensive and defensive unit positional rankings seem to follow the overall gist of both sides of the ball with a few outliers like Maryland's OL/DL units and so forth.

My question is what effect do those outliers play on the other units as whole i.e. if Maryland's lines suck, what amount of stress does that put on other units to play well or on the flip side, if MSU has decent line play, does that compensate for poor skill positions? The fact that PSU and OSU have strengths across the board is scary as finding a weak pinpoint to focus on will be tough. 

These are always a quality read heading into the season. Thanks!

NittanyFan

August 23rd, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^

It's a great question.  I'm not as down on MSU (or as high on Maryland) as others, simply because of the importance of the trenches.  Maryland @ MSU in Week 4 feels like the game that will answer those questions.

It would be equivalent to last year's Minnesota @ MSU game in Week 4.  Before that game, I was "I think Minnesota has a pretty good squad here, I think MSU has significant structural issues."  After, it was "I know Minnesota has a pretty good squad here, I know MSU has significant structural issues."

The Homie J

August 23rd, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^

I think the most important position on any team is the trenches.  Teams can be better or worse than their DL/OL, but those two positions basically create the range of outcomes.  A bad OL means your offense can't run, and your QB has only seconds to read a defense.  A bad DL forces you to either throw players at the LOS or risk your linebackers getting smacked by run blockers or the opposing QB having enough time find gaps in your coverage. 

Michigan State's porous secondary has obviously cost them many games, but not nearly as many as it should because their front 7 picked up so much slack.  We should have led them by 3 touchdowns at halftime last year, but we couldn't break enough runs and the pass game was under wraps till Ohio State.

Penn State should have more conference titles and a CFP appearance, but their OL has remained a weak spot, bringing down their ceiling despite overall talent almost on par with Ohio State.  They won at least 10 games in 2016/2017/2019/2022, but the trenches doomed them against the top teams on the schedule.

Maryland has the skill players to be dangerous, but the trenches on both sides betrays them year and year out.  They couldn't keep their starting QB healthy for a decade because of a weak OL.

Iowa has the dirt worst OC I've ever seen, running just an abhorrent offense that is lucky to put 10 points on the board any given week.  But the trenches, especially DL, helps keeps them in most games despite their refusal to play modern offense.

Wisconsin made hay for decades without 5 star players, sticking to big beefy OL's and a stout defense.  That run game helped make them a mainstay in B1G championships (where they'd eventually run into teams with enough talent to nullify their advantage in the trenches).

mGrowOld

August 23rd, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^

You really do a fantastic job with these Alex and thank you.  I really feel like I now know much more about our opponents than I did before I started reading these and like others, now look at the PSU game as a much more difficult task than I did previously.

PopeLando

August 23rd, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^

It would be interesting to do something similar for coaching and playcalling and game planning.

Who game plans well? Who adjusts well? That sort of thing. For instance, I’d argue that Greg Schiano is a top tier game planner, but not a great adjuster. While Harbaugh explodes in all directions: can dial up masterpieces, but equally capable of serious duds.