Cole Bajema Enters Transfer Portal
After a freshman year in which he played only 37 total minutes in ten games, shooting guard Cole Bajema has entered the transfer portal. Bajema is the third Michigan player to enter the portal this offseason, joining guard David DeJulius and center Colin Castleton. All three were recruited by John Beilein; Bajema was Beilein's final commit before he took the Cleveland job.
Bajema came to Michigan as a lanky shooter with some playmaking upside and a lot of room to fill out. While his lack of playing time wouldn't have been a major surprise heading into the season, his seeming inability to pass Adrien Nunez despite Nunez's tough year raised a red flag about Bajema's future with the program.
Bajema's departure leaves Juwan Howard's program with two open scholarships for 2020-21 with Isaiah Livers's NBA Draft decision still pending; remember when we were worried about the lack of room? This also adds to the severe need for bodies at pretty much any position who'll play beyond this season. The current scholarship chart:
| Scholarship | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Davis (RS Sr.) | B. Johns | F. Wagner | Z. Jackson |
| 2 | M. Smith (RS Sr.) | A. Nunez | Z. Jackson | H. Dickinson |
| 3 | E. Brooks (Sr.) | F. Wagner | H. Dickinson | T. Williams |
| 4 | I. Livers (Sr.) | Z. Jackson | T. Williams | J. Howard |
| 5 | B. Johns (Jr.) | H. Dickinson | J. Howard | |
| 6 | A. Nunez (Jr.) | T. Williams | ||
| 7 | F. Wagner (So.) | J. Howard | ||
| 8 | Z. Jackson (Fr.) | |||
| 9 | H. Dickinson (Fr.) | |||
| 10 | T. Williams (Fr.) | |||
| 11 | J. Howard (Fr.) | |||
| 12 | OPEN | |||
| 13 | OPEN |
[Hit THE JUMP for the current depth chart and a potential hurdle to filling out the roster.]
Michigan is scarily thin for next year unless they add more players this offseason. The current depth chart, even when it includes Livers, all but requires at least two and probably three of the incoming freshmen to be instant impact players (please don't take the position listings as gospel):
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Smith | E. Brooks | F. Wagner | I. Livers | A. Davis |
| Z. Jackson | A. Nunez | T. Williams | B. Johns | H. Dickinson |
| J. Howard |
Barring the slim possibility that a 2021 recruit reclassifies and commits, Howard is going to need to fill gaps with transfers. This leaves the program at the whims of the NCAA, which is never a fun place to be. While it seems unfathomable that they would force transfers to sit out as usual when many could be moving due to a global pandemic, the one-time waiver that felt like a sure bet to pass is now in doubt because some bits of the NCAA don't agree with other, more haughty bits of the NCAA:
The NCAA Division I Board of Directors said Thursday that it does not recommend potential changes to the transfer waiver process. ...
The Transfer Waiver Working Group recommended waiver guidelines change to allow the one-time transfer waiver, but while the Board of Directors recommended lifting the moratorium on transfer legislation, it disagreed on changing the waiver process. ...
This casts doubt on the passage of a one-time transfer waiver, which is expected to be voted on by the Division I Council on May 20. If it passes, it is unclear whether it would go into effect immediately or for the 2021-22 academic year.
Either way, I'd like to see Michigan look at some non-grad transfers, because they only have seven scholarship players projected to be on the roster in 2021-22. Not all of them are sure bets to be around, either: Franz Wagner will eventually explore his potential NBA future and transfers, as we've learned, are always a possibility.
Bringing in a six- or seven-player recruiting class isn't ideal. It tilts the balance of the roster, which means you're going to have to do this song and dance all over again in 3-4 years, and it's also hard to convince that many high-end prospects to join a team at the same time—you're going to have to fill out the back end of the class with some developmental players who aren't prioritizing early playing time. Bringing in a player or two who'd have sophomore or junior eligibility in 2021-22 would be a big help even if they can't hit the court right away.
Howard is likely to poke around 2021 recruits who are considering reclassifying to 2020. In all likelihood, however, there's going to be a waiting game for a couple weeks before the NCAA votes on the transfer waiver.
Not worried about it. At all.
Remember when we were going to bring in three 5 stars and no one was leaving ):
For real though, where's the patience with these young guys? Seems to be more and more if you don't start right away you up and leave.
I think this is the attrition from a coaching change that would have normally taken place last year. These were all Beilein guys, and him leaving so late last year not only hurt UM in their coaching search, but made transfer opportunities for these guys harder.
Totally understandable. But the timing and magnitude of all of these things to me illustrates Howard's inexperience. He seemed prepared for Livers to test the waters and engaged/supportive of that process. But the three transfers seem to have differing levels of surprise. I think Castleton was a surprise and I think this late timing of Bajema may be a surprise. Meanwhile he was clearly surprised by the 5-stars to some degree.
This is the point where Beilein would have brought in a Levert, Rahk, Dawkins, etc. Let's hope Howard has a trick up his sleeve. We're looking at Nunez and freshmen playing significant minutes right now and perhaps multiple guys playing out of their natural position. Then we're looking at almost no available players the following year. Lots of work to do....
Managing a college basketball roster in 2020 seems like hell on earth. I agree that Beilien's late departure left guys like DDJ, Castleton and Bajema sort of stuck and I agree that Juwan was probably distracted by the changing landscape of Livers and Wagner's dance with the NBA Draft and those two punk HS recruits who screwed him over. Either way, this stinks. Beilein simultaneously made the best and worst decision of his life - the roster chaos seems even worse now, just a year later.
Where I think Juwan slipped here was during the season. For some reason he kept going with Nunez despite his poor play. It seemed like everytime Bajema came in he made a shot or made something happen. I was annoyed Nunez didn't enter the portal and Bajema and Co. did. And I really feel Bajema was ready to go Levert/Stauskas all over everybody's ass next year but now he's gone. Disappointing.
I intently watched Nunez play late in season, and he had a physical uptick, and played rather tough on D... His shots and offense were severely lacking, but there is still a chance with him.
Todd and Christopher were definitely surprises. But I’m not so sure the transfers were that big of a surprise to Howard. It seemed like he was recruiting with attrition in mind. Everyone just assumed it was Nunez. Everyone is assuming the lack of playing time for Bajema is the reason for the transfer, but what if it’s the other way around? Nunez played over him cause Cole was already planning to leave.
He asked Davis to come back for a 5th year mid season. That tells me he knew something, maybe Castleton related maybe not, otherwise why are you not waiting till after the season to make that offer? He was also going after transfer PGs well before the DDJ announcement. If Todd stays committed we are only 1 scholarship below the limit. If Christopher silented then we’d be full.
Some fans are missing the big picture here. If players are coming and going and college basketball is some de facto G league then it's going to lose many fans and it's popularity will erode.
There are some who want it all. Free movement with no restrictions and popularity. Always a tradeoff between competing interests. Why should I follow a sport where guys are only interested in the bottom line and not the university? Why wouldn't I just watch pro sports?
Who the hell is going to play guard for this team next season? Brooks and Smith are going to be out there 39 minutes a game.
Zeb Jackson may have to see some minutes there. People say he's more of a SG, but I was most impressed by his playmaking and passing in HS and until he develops a more reliable jumpshot, I don't see him as an option at SG yet
Hopefully Zeb can at least use his athleticism to defend well, dont imagine hes bringing a lot to the table offensively as a true freshman.
I still think its crazy weve had 3 transfers this offseason and none of them were Nunez.
Franz
I think we'll see Wagner and Nunez at the two. Hopefully that's not a lot of minutes, but combined with Jackson, enough to get Brooks and Smith down to a somewhat reasonable 33-35 mpg.
What's our best five? Livers, Franz, Brooks...and then? Johns and Davis/Dickinson? Maybe we could run that lineup with a fair amount of zone defense. That's a lot of length to navigate (especially with Dickinson).
Livers is gone man, based on his recent comment that if someone says they would draft him he will stay in the draft. Some folks will say exactly that and he will go in the second round.
I'm throwing this option out there to fill roster vacancies. Even though I'm pushing 50, I have not yet exhausted my college athletic eligibility. I'm still an effective spot shooter and can easily hit 80-90% of my free throws (although drawing fouls may be an issue due to my currently suspect athleticism). The biggest issue: my creaky knees will probably warrant missing most practice time while I bathe in ice water. But I'm a gamer and could be an inspiring presence on next year's team.
You could be the Chris Weinke of the hardwood!
I'm assuming Wagner is gone after the next season and suppose Johns has a decent year and leaves too. That will leave 5 scholarship players. Yikes.
The 2021 class will need to have some dudes and a lot.
Hopefully we take a variety of players who some are more instant impact that may leave for the draft and some who are more 4 year guys to spread out the scholarships a bit
I would be hitting the transfer market hard if I were Howard. I think we will be looking for two to three transfers next class. Were likely going to need some immediate contributors at multiple positions. 5-7 freshman committing just doesnt seem realistic, kids don't want to face that much competition for minutes.
I am trying to tell myself that roster turnover after a coaching change is both typical and expected. I'm also telling myself that my optimism around Bajema's potential is based on nothing more than his recruiting profile, trust in Beilein, and hitting 10-of-13 in a meaningless 37 minutes. So why worry about him leaving? (The same could essentially be said of Castleton after his struggles last season.)
But this offseason continues to test my optimism around the program. Taking each loss on their own is logical, including the two big-name recruits. But adding them all together is a gut punch. My biggest frustration is that it doesn't seem that Howard had a back-up plan. I know he got a late start, I know a lot of recruits had made up their minds, I know he had reasons to believe the 5-stars were coming, and I don't know what he knew or didn't know about these transfers. But where are the 3-star guys or other transfers as insurance? His inexperience showed this off-season much like what happened to Beilein when he lost Stauskas, GR3, McGary, and Horford in one single off-season. But at least he filled out the next class with Dawkins and Rahk.
I'm going to give Howard the benefit of the doubt on this one. I'm going to assume that Howard did have a back-up plan and actually parts of the back-up plan are being implemented (graduate transfers), but a couple of months ago we were talking about have a scholarship deficiency and now we have a surplus. Can you really blame Howard for not having the foresight to:
1. Plan for a global pandemic that shuts down the season (who knows if they make a run, maybe more of these guys stay).
2. A change in NBA/G-League initiatives that basically incentivizes top tier prep prospects to turn pro?
3. Transfers of three players expected to see playing time next year? With the latest coming in the first week of May?
All of this while managing a roster of players he didn't recruit and still landing the top recruiting class in the Big 10 in about half the time the other coaches had to land a 2020 class.
I'm still going to choose to be optimistic on Howard and this team. This is truly an unprecedented time in College Athletics.
Howard landed Dickinson and Williams... and retained Franz and Zeb. Retained Bajema one year.
If ending up with open scholarships is an indictment of planning (which seems to be your point?), Beilein had open scholarships a plenty over the years.
So we're not a basketball school?
Brandon Wade is gonna get a serious look at a scholarship I bet
That's my thought as well. Assuming that he plays D better than Nunez (and it doesn't take much to do so), he's going to get PT.
Nunez began to play tough, very late in season, in case you didn't notice.
Nunez began to play tough, very late in season, in case you didn't notice.
I wish the kid all the luck in the world but like many here, this was not hard to see coming.
- Top recruiting class coming in for 2020
- Sat behind a less than stellar player in Nunez
- Is far from home with so many uncertainty regarding Covid19
I would have probably done the same but the look for the program is also bad. I don't care if this is the new normal with the transfers, this makes people think J. Howard doesn't know his team as well as he should which may or may not be the case. Happy Trails Cole, good luck at Gonzaga. (no insider stuff here, just where I would go if I were from Washington)
WEll, shit.
Of the two 5*s who did not sign, plus the three transfers, none of them individually is that big of a deal, but collectively it is a huge hit.
This team still has a chance to be pretty good in the Fall, if there is a season...IF Livers returns. The following year could be a disaster.
The decision of all three of the transfers was disappointing...each would have had a clear path to significant playing time and likely would have been key pieces in an 8-9 man rotation...unless they could not beat out a freshman...
The four freshmen signees have to be delighted...at least three of them will now pretty much be guaranteed to not only play, but get significant minutes, and will need to move into the starring role no later than their sophomore years.
We got the Fab Five this way.... so I don't agree with your take here... take in five guys who want to play together, and a few transfers...
The Fab 5 ain't happening again. Certainly not at Michigan, what with competition from the G-League, bag men, Duke and Kentucky...I mean, we couldn't even close the deal on the TWO 5*s this year.
Fab 5 was once in a lifetime...and I 'm glad we got to see it! Webber, the best player in the country, from Detroit, plus Rose, with Howard nearby in Chicago.
The only way it is even imaginable is if Bates would decide to play one year at M, and then others might come to be part of history...but again, that ain't happening.
Bajema transferred because he wasn't going to play. There's nothing to suggest he was going to pass Nunez, let alone be ahead of Zeb Jackson. This board is really down on Nunez, but if he gains confidence and can make shots (which he must do in practice to earn the starting SG spot last year), he'd be a serviceable backup guard. Nothing was going to be handed to Bajema. With Mike Smith coming in, Brooks is going to be the primary 2.
Here's my guess at the rotation:
PG: Smith 25, Brooks 15
SG: Brooks 20, Zeb 12, Wagner 8
SF: Wagner 27, Livers 13
PF: Livers 22, Johns 18
C: Dickinson 20, Davis 15, Johns 5
Brooks - 35
Livers - 35
Wagner - 35
Smith - 25
Johns - 23
Dickinson - 20
Davis - 15
Jackson - 12
8-man rotation. Williams, Howard and Nunez could earn playing time or be forced to play with injuries or foul trouble, but I don't see them playing regularly. Livers (3/4), Wagner (2/3), Brooks (1/2), Johns (4/5) all have positional flexibility that will really help Michigan next year. Howard will have the ability to matchup with small and big teams. This will also be the best shooting Michigan team in several years, as Livers, Wagner and Brooks all spread the floor with additional shooting from Smith and Johns.
The questions will be:
1) Can the bigs defend? We know Austin Davis is solid on the offensive glass and finishing in the half court offense, and Hunter Dickinson can finish around the hoop, but can they move their feet enough to defend athletic college bigs? If not, Johns is going to get more time at center.
2) How does Smith's game transfer to Big Ten basketball? He's going to need to be solid on both ends - that means hitting open jumpers, handling the ball without turning it over, and staying in front of his man on defense. If Smith can't give them heavy minutes the guard rotation will be a problem.
3) Who emerges as the backup guard? Zeb Jackson is my bet, but he's skinny and not a wow athlete. This position will likely be a matchup problem on defense, whether it's Jackson or Nunez who emerges.
One thing that could really change the rotation - If Dickinson is a revelation (he played high level high school basketball and was very productive), he could suck up more minutes at C and Johns will get more at the 4, moving Livers to the 3 and Wagner to the 2. Oddly, the development of Dickinson and the backup SG minutes may well be intertwined.
Yeah the biggest problem with taking huge classes is that you end up having to take a huge class every single year.
Look at Calipari at Kentucky, he averages a class size of 5.6, only taking less than 5 players four times in 14 classes, with a max of 8 (twice)
Beilein had an average class size of 3.8. Only taking more than 4 players 4 times in 12 classes, with a max of 6.
What a kick in the groin the last month has been to the basketball program and fans. We go from a possible Final Four contender to likely a 4th or 5th place Big Ten team next year. College basketball has become a roster management nightmare for programs now. Howard needs to start casting a much wider net to fill up a big recruiting class next year. He can't bank on 5 stars coming here - at all. Concentrate on the skilled players in Michigan, Chicago area, and this region, at least for now. And have plenty of back up options if some of the guys say no.
(4th or 5th place B1G team would be a large improvement from last year)
Ace's dedication to not criticizing Juwan is impressive. "His seeming inability" to pass Nunez is a hell of a way to put it. Every single person watching this team saw that Nunez is barely capable of hitting the backboard and something even less than useless on defense, and that Bajema was dramatically better on offense, but I guess there's no editorializing to be had here.
I don't get why Nunez is a fault of Howard's and not Beilein's.
Who on the recruiting trail had an inability to pass Nunez enough to earn that scholarship? It's his second year going on 3rd and people act they'd rather CJ Baird have his scholarship.
That would be fine with me, but what is really being said is we'd rather Baj had his PT!
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