California Conquered, All Hail the Big Fylkirate
Stunning news:
OFFICIAL: USC will join the Big Ten Conference in 2024.
— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) June 30, 2022
Stunning news, but in basketball:
news! UCLA is joining the Big Ten Conference at the start of the 2024-25 season!
— UCLA Athletics (@UCLAAthletics) June 30, 2022
➡️: https://t.co/ygoY70o2bo#GoBruins pic.twitter.com/Cgj5orGhiI
Broken today by Jon Wilner, at least two, and potentially more major Pac12 schools will join the Big Ten in two years. Clearly timed to coincide with the Big Ten renegotiating its TV rights deals, and meant to compete with the SEC's addition of Texas and Oklahoma, the move turns the Big Ten into a coast-to-coast conference of 16, and adds blue bloods in football and basketball. It also renders the Pac (back to) Ten something akin to what the Big XII will be when their two marquee programs leave in 2025, and almost certainly will precipitate more realignment.
The Big Ten had a bylaw that any schools they add be in neighboring states, but that was swiftly gotten around. Both schools were part of the Pac and its previous iteration, the Pacific Coast Conference, going back a century.
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What does it mean for the Big Ten? Schedule? Divisions?
It's way too early to say, because they're probably going to at least try to add more teams while the iron is hot.
Will they play the Big Ten championship at the Rose Bowl?
It's a good idea. I'd rather they play Showcase games there, especially since adding programs dilutes the old rivalries, meaning more good games won't be played in a 9-game schedule?
Does this get Notre Dame?
Notre Dame now has its biggest rival in the same conference as most of its other rivals, but it's still not as likely as you think. During its desperation to play during the pandemic, the Irish signed a deal with the ACC that goes through 2036 and stipulates if they join any conference it has to be the ACC. Their NBC deal is still quite lucrative, and their fanbase regularly votes for remaining Independent now matter how much of a technicality it rests on. The ACC's new chairman Jim Phillips has two kids at Notre Dame and kicked off his tenure with courtship.
I don't know the details of the ACC's deal, but it's conceivable that it has an out, or that their lawyers could find one, if the ACC was to fall apart or dramatically fall in value. Say, if the Big Ten poached some of its teams.
Who else could they add?
Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona are AAU schools and control large television markets. In the ACC, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, and Virginia qualify. Kansas is the last. Miami is a good enough school to make an exception, since they have Nebraska. FSU..?
To peal USC and UCLA off the Pac is such a power move I can't put it past them to approach any of these, or even swallow their favorite parts of those leagues whole, reform the college football faith, declare a Fylkirate, and hold a great blot.
Or they could swipe Washington and call it a day. I don't know.
And dump Rutgers?
No. There's no way this happens, sorry.
Can they be induced to add hockey?
Don't know. Good idea. UPDATE: UCLA has entertained the idea:
Here's a link for a more in-depth look into a potential move into D1.https://t.co/i3DFFqAnZW
— UCLA Ice Hockey (@UCLAIceHockey) July 1, 2022
Baseball/Softball?
The Big Ten could host a tournament in LA I guess, but I don't think this helps them shift the balance of power.
What does this do to college football?
More ads, for one. For the Big Ten, owning Saturdays means they can charge more for the last big thing on broadcast television. The broadcasters who pony up will in turn increase advertising as far as they possibly can, because to not do that means they're taking the hit themselves. The ACC and Pac-12 and Big12 will also take hits when their TV deals come up, as the networks can fill the majority of their national slots with SEC and Big Ten deals.
I do not think a landscape with the SEC and Big Ten hovering above quasi-majors and mid-majors is stable, though a Pac Ten without its LA teams can certainly survive. I also think expanding to the Pacific breaks the seal on any geographic limits, and that the SEC wouldn't limit themselves. Ultimately I foresee expansion continuing until most of what we consider the Power 5 are playing in divisions not so different from historically regional conferences, now under the auspices of two conferences paying different amounts of lip service to academics.
The schools are already concerned that NIL is changing the fundamental financial structures of college athletics. This was an expressed concern when the SEC announced its addition of Texas and Oklahoma. There is at least a high possibility that gaining control on the NIL market is going to end with the players signing contracts. At the very least donations that previously went to the programs for building and administration and doodads will be diverted to the players, with the all-important TV dollars the largest piece of the that remains in the schools' hands.
The upshot for Michigan is they're no longer the only other blueblood in a conference dominated by their rival, and it's much better to be a big school on the inside right now than a not quite as big school on the outside
Man with multiple Michigan tattoos to eat hat
If this happens I will eat a hat https://t.co/aP2WYefd2t
— BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL (@edsbs) June 30, 2022
Not confused at all. The Honda B16 is much more reliable and efficient.
Speaking of reliable, Stanford does NOT bring in the Bay Area. They can't even bring in Palo Alto
Yes they do. Watching/going to Stanford games doesn’t matter. It’s all about how many more people are now paying for certain channels. BTN being included in cable packages in LA and (theoretically) the Bay Area means more money going to the B1G. How many people actually watch it doesn’t really matter that much.
San Francisco-Oak-San Jose is the 6th largest TV market. The home attendence of Stanford/Cal teams is less relevant than the number of eyeballs in their market. That's why Rutgers and Maryland are in the BiG.
It took a long time for the Big Ten Network to shoehorn its way into the New York market, and I suspect that the only reason it did is that there were a bunch of non-Rutgers alumni in town. The number of people who are going to demand that their cable system put BTN on the basic tier so that they can watch the Stanford / Iowa game is very much related to the lack of local attendance.
Incorrect.
Using your reasoning (which I somewhat agree with) any Bay Area cable provider would already be under increasing pressure to include BTN, because in addition to all the UM, OSU, PSU, etc. grads in that area, you will also have a metric shit ton of USC / UCLA grads in the area that would be keen to see their teams play. That alone might get the job done, but add in a local school like Stanford, and now without BTN available you have essentially a media blackout for a popular local team - that for sure gets it done. Attendance of games is very much unrelated to BTN forcing there way onto basic cable packages.
If Stanford were a “popular local team,” then I’d expect them to have significant local attendance. It strains credulity to think that there is this huge number of fans, all of whom are desperately trying to watch the team on TV, but none of whom will bother to go to the games.
Also, I suspect the Bay Area is Ground Zero of cord-cutting, so I suspect the BTN may be surprised how few non-fans they’re able to strongarm into paying for content they don’t really want.
I know I have become "old school," but this is all so fucking stupid.
Agreed. Conferences are meaningless now. Just cartels competing for TV dollars with little to no shared identity.
We seem to be headed that way. I mean, we're literally asking questions like "what if the Big Ten adds 12 more teams?" The reason is for more leverage on the TV networks to squeeze them for more money. But it's not a conference, then, is it? It's a group of teams with an agreement to pool their football selling power and a loose scheduling agreement.
It is a minor league sports system. They need to end all the amateur talk. Pay the players, let them sign contracts. They get 5 years of eligibility and part of the compensation package is tuition and board.
No need to add to what bsand53 says. I like the B16 logo thought, but it probably won't stop there.
With the abandonment of traditional or geographic alignment, it seems like we are speeding towards an end point where the conferences are sorted by team wealth. All of the richest (and best) teams will be in one conference and the other conferences will be lower tiers.
I see almost no upside here.
I can't stand USC or UCLA (or Bill Walton, who comes as a consolation prize).
Do you enjoy football games starting at 10:45 PM ET? Basketball starting at 10 on a weeknight? You have to assume that Michigan is going to get a football road game in Los Angeles as often as the schedulers can manage it. (But, hoo boy, I wouldn't want to try to sell tickets for Rutgers @ UCLA). 1-2 basketball road games per year (I'm guessing two, because they'll probably send teams out to play both SoCal teams in one long weekend).
The Rose Bowl died a little in 2006, when Michigan played OSU to avoid having to play in Pasadena. It's entirely dead now, though, since the Big Ten pulled a Fredo Corleone. Whatever Pac 12-- presidents can't get into the Big Ten are going to push for revenge, and it's the only lever they have. I'd be stunned if they don't replace the Big Ten "champ" with an at-large selection as soon as they can.
And the championship game? They're going to have to put it in LA every now and then. But, no, it won't be against a gorgeous backdrop of the San Gabriel Mountains; it'll be at SoFi stadium so we can retain the soulless NFL atmosphere that marked whatever-it's-called in Indy. Only, now, instead of driving, everyone can plan flights with a week's notice to get to LA and potentially attend a road game.
Same with the basketball tournament. Sure, Michigan has fans in LA, but the rest of the games are going to be empty.
The only sightly positive thing that I can think of is that it might open a pipeline to try to recruit California, but even if they do play a game every year in LA, there are still 11 more that are too far for the parents to see easily.
This is a sad day for college athletics.
PS: Don't overlook the effect on the non-revenue sports, who are now spending all of that TV money flying, and who are missing a lot more class to do it. You can argue that football and basketball players are essentially professional athletes at this point, but I'm pretty sure there are honest-to-goodness students on the track team, diving team, etc.
Nailed it. All these cutesy little dreams of the championship at the Rose Bowl? LOL no. You hit it on the head - they'll play in the LA version of JerryWorld, because money. All these fanciful notions of "we'll recruit in California now?" LOL no. What SoCal recruit is gonna hang out in Michigan weather in February on purpose, just because they might get one or two trips back home every four years for a football game?
There are a lot of very incorrect reasons why people think this is so great that will never come to fruition.
I think the reverse will happen. The best midwest kids will be more likely to go live in LA for 4 years knowing they will be playing road games closer to home and their families can still come watch them play.
My son just chose to do that exact thing, picking Pepperdine over Boston University. Silver lining here is I might be able to coordinate a visit during a Michigan hoops game at Pauley Pavillion.
Can't see why anyone would choose to go to Pepperdine.
Campus is so ugly.
Terrible views.
Awful location.
you forgot:
bad beaches
ugly co-eds
What really stood out to me on the campus tour, was how I didn't see a single frumpy or overweight student. The campus is on a cliff and the steps are just brutal... And didn't see a bike either, because so hilly.
he couldn't think of any schools to go to that don't cost over $100K per year?
Short term may be interesting, but by 2024 there may be 4-6 Pac schools in the Big Ten: Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, UCLA, and USC. And of course UC Cal Berkeley, but I'm just going with ones that are AAU in bigger markets that care about football (saw some tweets on this).
Big Ten would want shorter transport, sure, and adding other teams in the west would allow that (even though the Pac 12 is still a large footprint). But football could still cover the transportation costs for other sports regardless.
West coast games wouldn't be after 10pm eastern, at least not for big games, in my opinion. Pac 12 has tried to get earlier games on already to be more nationally relevant and they would have more opportunity for that now simply by "playing" teams from the east even if played in the west. Game times in Cali probably be 330 ET and 700 ET as much as possible (so 1230pm and 4pm pacific).
North Carolina and Virginia may fall too, so more regional east coast play and so west coast and east coast teams may not play each other all the time. And when they do (this a half reach), they may stay on the opposite coast two wknds in a row to save time. It's about money, not school, so they will just take school on the road.
My opinion. But regardless, they will innovate how they do this. It won't be as bad as it sounds. Big Ten could have enough power to take the rest of the AAU schools (and some exceptions) and reduce travel for all while keeping a semblence of scholastic character which (with good NIL strategy) will eventually out-recruit half of the SEC.
Perhaps they will figure out a fast-track portal perk for trades. So anyone on west coast will know they can go east and vice versa. Probably 100 more ideas that Big Ten could execute a little better than SEC. SEC good at money, not as much with strategy.
It depends upon how much of a say the individual schools have in it. The current Big Ten teams will prefer to play their home games against the west coast schools at noon ET; the west coast schools will prefer to play them at 7:45 PT, or even 8 PM if they can get away with it — anything they can do to gain an advantage over the team that’s traveling.
I suppose TV may pull a Michigan @ USC/UCLA game to 5 PM PT / 8 PM ET, but if they really do keep expanding.. games like Michigan @ Stanford/Cal have no national interest.
You can't see the upside?
You talk about 10:45 start times and UCLA vs Rutgers but I would be willing to bet that the B1G will have something like games starting at noon EST and then 3:30 and then sometime around 6-8 allowing non-stop B1G football all day. You can laugh at UCLA / Rutgers but was UCLA Colorado or Washington State all that big a draw?
All I see are opportunities, I'm sorry that all you see are road blocks.
I just don't see any traditional B1G teams playing games at 1045 EST. The point of this move is TV money, they aren't going to risk having less eyeballs from the east coast on their games. What we will be seeing is a lot of 7 PM games.
Call me crazy, but I think the move would be to schedule like march madness does. Stagger games by 30 min to an hour. So you have 7 or 8 games that start every hour from 11 am to 8 pm.
Also everyone keeps saying SEC and B1G are now the 2 super conferences. But the B1G just secured the 3 largest media markets, while the SEC gets #5 and #7, which combined are still smaller than LA. I know "it just means more", but in this arms race you have to think the B1G is winning.
Sure, just like they “secured” the New York market by bringing in Rutgers.
LA is not a college sports town. USC or UCLA will get some bandwagon fans when they’re doing well, but ultimately it’s a pro sports town, to the extent that it’s a sports town at all. I’ve lived on the west coast, and there’s so much less interest in sports than there is in the Midwest (or the southeast) that it’s like being in another country.
And the draw of a team like Michigan is that you can schedule games at whatever time and people will still watch.
I wonder how many B1G alumni live in the greater LA area? Michigan has about 20k according to our Alumni Association.
This is a myth. The Dodgers, Rams and Lakers are sold out every game. The Kings, Clips and Angels also draw well. High tv ratings too.
LA “fans” are frontrunners. They show up when the teams are doing well and disappear when they’re not.
And all of those are pro teams — to the extent LA cares about sports, it’s the pros.
How does this not play out to where we end up with a Big 10 Conference with a Pacific Coast Division? Then back to where we started.
Exactly, and I bet they go to 11 conference games a year. They’ll be a East & West Division of 10 teams each. You play everybody in your division, and two rotating games against the other division. Watch and see.
I live near the Coast and I’d love those times for some Michigan games. Guess I’m winning on this deal.
You are all absolutely delusional. No upside? Can't understand it? Lmao this is a massive win for the conference and for us.
Gotta give it to you—you backed up that assertion with some very convincing arguments.
Well you sold me! Let's put this puppy to bed and go get some shots!
double post
Username most definitely checks out.
Guess I should've scrolled down more before posting that you beat me to it!
User name checks out
At least it's slightly less fucking dumb now that the players can actually make money
Conference championship games are one of the single worst decisions the NCAA has ever made. All of this shitty conference realignment over the last 30 years is a natural evolution of that awful decision.
I'm personally looking for the tastiest hat I own right now.
Baseball/softball
Pac 12 huge in softball.
Ending with 2 mega- conferences, could have them play different seasons, each with its own chanpion.
and/or playoff World Series between winners of each conference.
TV $ drive everything - more content means more $, so that summer college baseball/softball should make sense.
Astutely noted, football live audiences are #1 for advertisers.
I wish they would figure out they can charge more per commercial rather than just selling more ads.
Notre Dame’s NBC deal is peanuts compared to what Big Ten will get in next media deal. They have to be shitting their golden shorts right now and it’s glorious.
Add 4 teams: Big XX
OR Michigan, UCLA, Iowa, USC, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Indiana, and THE State: ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Big Ten!
It's far from my dream scenario (kick out Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska and Penn State) but if that's the way our division shakes out I could live with it.
Don’t take Oregon! They can stay with the Pac-12 leftovers and Dante Moore, realizing Oregon is an afterthought nationally, chooses Michigan. #chess
You're forgetting that the Big Ten hates Michigan.
Being a resident of the beautiful state of Oregon now, I would love to see U of Oregon or Washington added. Would be great to see Michigan in a conference game only a couple hours away. I am a selfish man.
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