Basketbullets: Roko's Basketball Basilisk
1/22/2020 – Michigan 63, Penn State 72 – 11-7, 2-5 Big Ten
I give up on not being repetitive. The games are repetitive. Make a shot! Shoot the ball into the basket! Jump, and then at or around the apex of your jump release the ball such that it arcs with some nice backspin and goes through the net! It is in these ways that basketball games are won! Theoretically!
Sometimes I wonder if I'm being way too fatalist about basketball. In my brain I give a team a certain number of points when a shot goes up, and keep a running total of grievance against the universe when the points in my head add up to something nice and the scoreboard is something nasty. The immediate aftermath of a shot I consider bad going down for the opponent is a scoff or an eyeroll. I hold grudges about Michigan players taking shots I consider bad even if they go down.
A basketball game is not a competition that is ceased at the moment a shot goes up and then given a score by a panel of judges. But in the cold light of dawn five games into the resumption of Big Ten play, I am here to say it damn well should be.
Look, here are other people who are making similar observations. They are somewhere between observant, resigned, and wondering if the universe is a simulation designed to torture them because they did not sufficiently aid the development of a superintelligent AI:
There's just no way to win a game with the type of shooting disparity in Ann Arbor tonight. Michigan desperately needs Livers to get their rotation back in order.
— Matthew Way (@waymatth) January 23, 2020
If anyone of you are NBA fans, this Michigan game could not be more #MOML (make or miss league). This is the kind of offensive game you feared when Livers went out with the groin injury.
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 23, 2020
Michigan cannot hit open catch & shoot looks.
If my eye rolls, scoffs and deep sighs were worth points we’d be torching Penn State
— Manuel Excel (@colintj) January 23, 2020
Sometimes it's as simple as one team making a bunch of shots and the other team not making shots
— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) January 23, 2020
The basketball is making me feel deranged so I reach out into the void for people with similar opinions about how basketball becomes much easier if you put the ball into the hoop.
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Michigan has various other problems, of course. But those problems can be the same size and feel vastly less important if Michigan hits a damn shot. Since Livers went out Michigan is hitting 27% from three; opponents are hitting 40%. When Kenpom did a series on what is and is not in a basketball team's control in any particular game Michigan's most prominent current issue ended up almost dead last:
And that leads me to a different way of looking at the control issue. Below are the stats ranked by each side’s absolute control over them.
Offense Defense APL Blk% 3PA% PPP PPP 3PA% A% Stl% TO% TO% 2P% FTR NST% 2P% OR% APL Stl% A% FTR NST% FT% OR% Blk% 3P% 3P% FT%So while the defense only has 29% control of its opponent’s three-point attempt percentage, in terms of absolute control there are only two things it has more infleunce over – block percentage and points per possession. There is less random variance associated with three-point attempt percentage than any other stat I looked at except for points per possession. And the only thing the defense has less absolute control over than opposing three-point percentage is opposing free-throw percentage.
In the micro there are things Michigan is doing on certain possessions that mean they're more likely to lose basketball games. Eric Shapiro pointed some broken rotations out that led to open looks for PSU:
Michigan not making shots was the primary reason why it lost to Penn State, but uncharacteristic miscommunications and botched switches on defense led to many open looks for Nittany Lion three-point shooters. pic.twitter.com/WTnSj10mPn
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 23, 2020
In the macro… I mean… come on.
[After the JUMP: corpse prodded]
[Campredon]
Unfortunately not an Accesssories MAAR moment. Zavier Simpson's hair did the above. I don't know why. I suggest he keeps evolving his silly hair until he turns into Duncan Robinson from behind the arc. Keep searching.
No way out. We had a discussion on WTKA today about whether there was anything Michigan could tweak to get better offensive efficiency out of the pieces they have. Sam suggested running more offense through Teske in the hopes that Michigan could get more buckets off of cuts, which isn't a bad suggestion.
I don't know how much it would help after watching various Big Ten teams that do emphasize post usage. Their offenses are predicated around getting the ball on the block; Michigan's is not. Shifting that midseason sounds good but is tough to do. I also wonder about Teske's endurance. Colin Castleton did not play in this game. Austin Davis is improved but not that improved. Teske's defense has suffered with his increased usage. Heaping more on his plate might not be possible without losing something somewhere else.
[Campredon]
Other than that I don't see a way out of a heavy reliance on outside shooting. Simpson has his moments but his limitations mean that he's only going to be efficient if he picks his spots. High volume Simpson outings are probably going to look like this game: 18 points but 23 shots to get there and six turnovers. Michigan's other guards are only getting 17% of their shots at the rim. Johns and Wagner both flash the ability to create shots at the rim but are currently too turnover prone to rely on much, and we just discussed issues with getting Teske up to alpha dog usage.
Michigan is heavy jumpshooting team and will remain so. Livers won't change that but maybe he'll hit something.
Pushing Michigan's usage to places it doesn't want to go. Penn State's defensive plan was to let Teske shoot threes and let Simpson have anything he wanted as long as it wasn't right at the basket. This culminated in Simpson taking a two off the dribble with the same hop step he's using from three. Like the other two 2P midrange shots in Simpson's career it did not go in.
nope except that one time [Campredon]
Bah. It looked like Franz Wagner's shooting was about to turn the corner when he went 4/9 from three against Minnesota. Since: 3/16. He's back down to 31% on the season, and in this game he didn't chip in with other stuff like he did against Iowa (6/6 from two, four assists). He did do a pretty good job against Stevens for chunks of time. Stevens only got two shots at the rim; the rest of his scoring was hitting heavily contested midrange shots.
Someone hit a shot so I can keep typing. Know that about 82% of the time I've tried to type a certain letter in this post have failed.
I am going to stop this post now and try to fix this. If I do and Michigan starts hitting shots I want a medal.
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^
Franz's face in that picture sums up the way they're playing.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:35 PM ^
Sexy, but still approachable?
January 24th, 2020 at 4:20 AM ^
vulnerable comes to mind
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
Not only did we miss a ton of open 3's, but a few misses had "momentum-changing" written all over them if they would've found the bottom of the net. Too many mini offensive spurts that could've morphed into bona fide runs were squelched by missed open 3's last night.
On a positive note, the upcoming schedule's importance has been ratcheted up to unexpected levels!
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Wow, that Shapiro video is really damning for Simpson. That is seriously 9 first half Penn State points that can be chalked up to Zavier Simpson either not paying attention or giving really poor effort on defense.
January 23rd, 2020 at 1:49 PM ^
Since the results of recent games are driving us to drink, now more than ever we need strong LIVERS...
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:26 PM ^
9 to the 9nth up votes VAWolverine
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
I don't see why giving DDJ more of X's minutes is a bad thing at this point. I think he needs to sit and watch for a while.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
Like, the "James Harden" step... come on man? That's a travel. It is going to be called 100% of the time. Ten out of every ten times you do it, it is going to be called a travel. I understand that Howard is a first year coach so "discipline" may not be his strong suit yet, but I seriously can't understand how Simpson did not get Uncle Phil-Face from Juwan last night and a spot on the bench after he tried to pull that move again. I am not particularly a fan of Simpson this year. I was for his first three years. "Big Mood" Zavier was all business, a worker, a hard hat guy. This Showtime Simpson is just not who he is. It is kind of a weird transformation.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
In fairness to Simpson -- I think a large part of "Showtime" Simpson is because he has to be that guy. Who else on this team is creating their own shot? Even when Livers gets back, he can help a bit, but that's really not his game. You have essentially taken Poole / Iggy / Charles off of last year's team and replaced them with Brooks / Wagner / Johns. All 3 in the first group were good to great players, very capable of creating their own shots/ All 3 in the second group are okay - good players (at least thus far) and shot creation is not a strong suit for any at this point. What else are you expecting Simpson to do? This team is just not good offensively.
Now the defensive lapses and getting career games put on us every night... is... not... good
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
DDJ is a bit of disaster at this point. He's awful at defense and takes too many long twos. One bad game from Simpson doesn't change that he's much more valuable than DeJulius. I worry that Simpson's frustration with the young guys (and maybe the coaches) is getting to him.
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
Sitting X for DDJ is a recipe to getting blown out. You cant take the only consistent creator of offense for others out of the game, and put in an ok shooter, marginal at best defender who’s not a creator with a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio and expect better results. Sitting X to give him a break would be nice though he can’t continue to play 35-40 minutes every game, he’ll get burnt out.
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
It's shocking from the seniors. I will defend the help on the baseline drive though. That's help / a trap that you have a relatively high probably of getting a deflection. Those are the kind of chances, the team does need to take more often. Credit to the guy for threading the needle on the kick out.
But back to the lack of discipline and organization. Also not included in the video is three point play that Johns fouled Stevens on a 17 foot fade away, the foul Teske made on the big guy turning for a 10 foot fade away, and others. Those are the shots you want! Do not foul! You aren't going to get a clean block. There was a second half possession in which Johns and Wagner just stood watching Jones blow by both thinking the other had him.
This team is going to have some tough shooting nights. Even last years team did. But the disorganization on defense is very concerning. They've dropped from 2nd in the country last year to 52nd despite playing previously very good defenders in Simpson, Brooks and Teske plus Livers half the year.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
huge props to ace for the 'lost j' comment.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
Offensively, this team is similar to the last year's team in that the outside shooting is streaky at best. But there are two things that is keeping us from achieving the similar outcome from last year.
The first is defense, which everyone has been bitching about. We all knew that we would take a step back from historically good defense last year, but this has been pretty much a free-fall. Unless we get back to at least a middling B1G defense, we will be lucky just to get an NCAA bid.
The second is turnovers. I know the number have improved since the start of the season, but that 5 turnovers in 10 possessions really killed this game for us. Due to the past decade of watching Beilein ball, I have physical convulsions whenever I see a turnover and the games this year have been just painful. If the marginal offensive improvement is because we are taking more chance with silly passes, I don't know if it is worth it.
But in the end, I am not really surprised. You don't replace the best coach in your program's history and not go through some serious setbacks. Just not in the face for the rest of the season would be nice.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
For all the complaining about everything last night, it's actually incredible that Michigan didn't win this game by a comfortable margin. Michigan took 12 more field goal attempts than Penn State, and until silly time at the end of the game, had also created an advantage at the free throw line. To take a dozen more field goal attempts than your opponent and half a dozen more free throws and lose by almost double digits is almost unfathomable. Michigan had more steals, the same number of turnovers, considerably out-rebounded Penn State (by offensive rebound pct), got to the line more; everything but actually putting the ball through the basket. And most of those three point looks were pretty dang good. And even with all that, Michigan is still in this game if Curtis Jones, a 30% three point shooter, doesn't play out of his mind in the second half.
Yes, there were some sloppy periods in this game (perfect games are rare), but we saw some good stuff too. Johns did a good job early keeping Stevens from getting to the rim and stayed out of foul trouble; unfortunately Stevens made something like 80% of his baseline turnaround two point jumpers. Juwan finally shortened his bench up; Nunez and Castleton didn't play. I'd rather they improved to the point where they're playable, but as long as they aren't, we'd rather Juwan not force them into the game. We also continued to play different coverages on Stevens when he attempted to post up. Just digging down on the post a couple of times a game is a good adjustment.
This stretch reminds me a lot of the stretch of basketball in 2016-2017. We had a great tournament showing in New York that year, and then ran into a stretch of basketball where our defense wasn't tight enough and opponents benefited from an extreme amount of three point luck. People were losing their minds, the Fire Beilein crown was getting more and more vocal, then Michigan's defense crawled back towards respectability, our opponents didn't continue hitting unsustainable numbers of threes, and Derrick Walton erupted after the "white collar" comment in Illinois.
Now I'm obviously not saying the same thing is going to happen here. There are definitely issues for this team to work on, and it's unreasonable to expect anyone to do what Walton did. But you've got to take a deep breath after shooting performances like this one. Even a bad shooting performance from Michigan wins this game; it took a catastrophic performance to lose it, one that is almost certainly unsustainable going forward. And if it doesn't largely correct itself, Michigan has way worse problems then some lax defensive rotations or sloppy turnovers; no modern basketball team is gonna win while regularly shooting under 20% from three.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
Can't imagine watching that game and thinking we lost because of bad luck. Wish I could be as optimistic as you.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^
Not just bad luck, of course. There's almost never a solitary reason why a team wins or loses a game. I don't want to deny that there was plenty for Michigan to work on. My point is that, despite all the stuff they could have done better, they still did more than enough to win the game. Again, how often does a team:
- Dominate points in the paint (34-22)
- Dominate offensive rebounding (27%-10%)
- Achieve turnover parity (13-13), including twice as many steals (8-4)
- Get to three free throw line twice as much (before silly time at the end)
- Generate 12 additional field goal attempts, including 9 additional threes
And lose? Despite all the bad, it's just shooting at that point, and while Michigan definitely took some ugly shots, there were also a plethora of excellent looks that just didn't fall.
Yeah, Michigan had some bad defensive possessions; so did Penn State. Michigan had some bad offensive possessions; so did Penn State. The difference was almost entirely that Penn State made Michigan pay and Michigan didn't return the favor. And since we know that 17% is an astronomically unreasonable three point percentage for basically any NCAA basketball team, yeah, I'm saying luck played a significant role. Absolutely.
Anyway, that doesn't make the loss feel any better. Damn near ruined my night, it was so frustrating. I get people being frustrated. I am too. But basketball is a sport with such a prominent, in-your-face, random element that you'll drive yourself insane if you don't take a step back and account for it, even (or maybe especially) when things feel bad.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:06 PM ^
All of that is just to say that Penn State is a bad team. Just makes the loss worse for me, so painful to watch an opponent play just bad basketball and they're still beating you.
January 23rd, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
I’m only going to comment on Simpson’s hair because the rest of the post is too painful. Is it possible that he is morphing into the 5th Teletubby? There’s Tinky-Winky, Dipsy, Laa Laa, Po, and now Exzee.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
This slump will continue until it doesn't. Shooters are like hitters in baseball or professional golfers. Slumps are part of life. The issue with this team is our depth of elite shooters is not what it was last year. Livers is our only proven high percentage shooter and being out was the death dagger to this offense. Hopefully Livers returns soon and gets on fire to break the funk.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
Simpson is a great PG but is obviously checked out mentally.
It's time to let DDJ get half his minutes and see what happens because this is going nowhere fast!
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
They’re not gonna make the postseason at all (NCAA, NIT,etc.) if they give half of X’s minutes to DDJ. They’ll be battling Northwestern and Nebraska for the 12th seed in the B1G tourney.
January 24th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
That is what they are doing right now.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
I finally started the game about 9:00, picked up my phone because due to chronic douchebag's disease I am physiologically incapable of watching a large screen without a smaller screen in my hand, opened Instagram and made one swipe... F**k.
I can't decide if I hate that people post scores online immediately after the game or if I'm grateful that they saved me from having to watch a loss.
Anyway, I handed the remote over to the wife before I even saw the opening tip and we got to watch great British baking show instead, so that was nice.
January 23rd, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
let's be honest: it's time to worry. welcome to life on the bubble.
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^
Simpson seems lost on D. I wonder if there is a scheme change from Yaklich that is confusing them. He just seems like his head is not in it. Uncharacteristic.
January 23rd, 2020 at 4:33 PM ^
Yikes, Wagner is shooting 3s worse than Simpson...on the season!
He was a good shooter in Europe, right? Not making shots, microscopically low assist rate...absolutely needed to get more from him, especially with Livers out. A turnaround from him would be nice.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
Yeah idk, maybe the increased speed of the game is tiring his legs out so he can't shoot as well as did in Europe???
January 24th, 2020 at 2:18 AM ^
He also broke his shooting wrist as the season was starting.
January 23rd, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
Michigan lost 3 starters from an *pretty good* team last year and Livers, who was last year's Ginobli is not playing. This is completely understandable, especially given that one new starter is a freshman in Wagner, and the other got Austin Davis minutes last year in Brooks.
Simpson is limited offensively and the pick and roll between him and Teske has been figured out. Until Teske or Simpson can shoot above 40% from three, this offense will stay this way.
January 23rd, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^
Its pretty basic. Recruit dudes that don't turn the ball over and can make free throws. Maybe recruit a shooter. The future is bright. Right now, this is a rag tag mess... I'd say abortion but we have 60mill that cant have an opinion.
January 23rd, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
Its concerning how many defensive lapses in that video was on Simpson.
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:24 PM ^
I saw an infomercial recently on how well davis’ hands could fry an egg without sticking
January 23rd, 2020 at 9:49 PM ^
The Euro-scouting on Wagner was just dead ass wrong wrt this season. He’s shot terribly.
January 24th, 2020 at 2:10 AM ^
He broke his shooting wrist as the season was about to start. That's probably the worst thing that can happen to a shooter.
January 23rd, 2020 at 10:42 PM ^
Bench Simpson. It's our only hope.
January 24th, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
Help us Obi Wa...Isaiah Livers.
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