[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketball Open Practice Takes Comment Count

Brian October 29th, 2019 at 2:06 PM

Different vibes. Two things jumped out as different from Beilein's teams. #1 was a concerted effort to get up the court on every possession. This was only effective when Simpson was pulling the strings in open court situations, able to get to the basket because he got an exploitable-cross match. Michigan did not crash the boards much, so guys were back and largely in good position as Michigan tried to push it. There weren't many opportunities to get over the top with an outlet pass and get an uncontested transition bucket. A few different transition opportunities looked good until Castleton or Johns swooped in to block the shot.

#2 was extended defensive pressure, which popped up later in the session. Michigan absolutely never did this under Beilein. At times in this practice Michigan denied point guards the ball well outside the three point line and forced the offense into secondary ball-handlers. They did not get back-cut while doing this but, yeah, they're going to get back-cut some as a cost of this approach. They'll also be more disruptive to opposing offenses.

There was also a brief stretch of 2-3 zone on D, which I doubt we see in games much but should probably be practiced so it can be practiced against.

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gunner [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Context is important. Intrasquad scrimmages often have wildly mismatched teams that force guys into uncomfortable roles, so box-score spelunking is often not that useful. David DeJulius was piloting a team of backups against Zavier Simpson, so he ended up turning the ball over some and taking some heroball shots. I don't think that tendency will be nearly as pronounced when he's on the court with Simpson, and indeed it wasn't in the third period when they swapped around the teams so he was the 2 on Simpson's team.

Buuuuut: yeah, DDJ is going to be a guy who thrills and frustrates alternately. Given what we saw from the rest of the "maybe he can create shots" crew they're going to have to rely on him as at least a bench microwave type and possibly as the starting 2 while Franz is out. (And maybe after, depending on what happens around him.) DDJ is not shy, and he provides shooting. On a team with no proven creators other than X you're going to live with a certain number of stepback threes.

[After the JUMP: four guys for two spots, probably]

Speaking of context, Isaiah Livers. The most encouraging thing on the night was Isaiah Livers shedding his previous willingness to defer. Dude took a dribble handoff, took one dribble, and stepped back for a three between two defenders. This was an airball, but it's okay! He was Michigan's most efficient player last year and M needs him to amp up the usage. I remember several times moaning "shoooooooot" at him when he passed up an open look from three. He did not do so. If he got a look, it was going up.

It feels like he's ready to do that when given a sliver of opportunity. He did not demonstrate an increased proficiency at getting to the rim—he didn't try, really. He doesn't necessarily have to if he's going to get his usage up to 20%+. He just has to lose the conscience. So far, so good.

Left? Sure, let's try it. Simpson seemed like the same guy with one difference: more willingness to finish on the left side of the basket, whether that was with his right in some acrobatic, strange way, or with his left. He had a nice scoop layup with his left in transition and missed (but attempted!) a lefty hook. This was a light interlude last year…

…but this ineffable, unknowable man wasn't wrong.

Simpson probably can't do much about his shooting deficiencies; he probably can get craftier at the rim and get his percentage up there.

Your starting four? Colin Castleton played the vast majority of his time at the four. That may be an artifact of Michigan's situation, with Johns limited coming off an ankle sprain and Wagner unavailable, but probably not. Castleton has the potential to be a Reuvers/Jaren Jackson type who is able to stay in front of most 4s while providing lethal help defense. He blocked a couple of shots in the practice session that were alpaca out of nowhere moments.

On offense he was a little more passive than I'd hoped, passing up two pretty clean pick and pop opportunities before draining an open three late. That might not be fate:

He did take a couple of Dirk fadeaways, making the first to oohs and aahs.

Two bigs might be a way to generate some non-Simpson-initiated shots. While Michigan did ~none of this in the open practice, Matt D has repeatedly talked about Horns sets as ways for Michigan to generate offense; Teske is a good, if infrequently used, passer so various high-low actions might be a way to generate shots—or at least give Simpson some options other than than a pick and roll you can go under because it's behind the three point line. Think Minnesota last year with Oturu and Jordan Murphy, except add about nine inches of height between the two. Castleton's length and ability to get up should make him a good target for those short-range big to big passes. Pretty easy to slot Castleton into the dunker role here:

Or see Teske making this pass:

Now, you're probably saying "Minnesota was bad at offense," and this is true. But 52nd, which is where the Gopher O landed on Kenpom, is good enough to hit our relatively modest expectations—make the tourney, hopefully stay off the bubble—in year one if the defense sticks in the top ten, which it should. Also Michigan won't be playing Isaiah Washington 12 MPG.

The catch is that unless Michigan thinks it can get minutes out of Austin Davis or Columbia transfer Jaron Faulds—survey says no after observing both yesterday—Castleton is going to have to have to log a significant number of minutes at the 5. Teske finished the year with 70% of Michigan minutes. This was matched or exceeded by just 21 guys 6'10" or taller, with a couple of Big Ten comparables: Ethan Happ got 79% of Wisconsin minutes; Bruno Fernando got 75% of Maryland's. Teske is taller and heavier than both. I'd say Happ, who was the whole offense for Wisconsin, is a hard cap on how much Teske can be on the court, and that leaves 8-10 minutes for someone else, likely Castleton.

That means Castleton's probably limited to 20 minutes at the 4, so Michigan still needs Johns to come through no matter what happens with Castleton. Johns hit a 3 and had a couple of impressive blocks, one on Castleton when it looked for all the world like he'd gotten beat fronting him. Didn't initiate a ton of stuff himself.

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big difference in Bajema's ability to not blow away in a strong wind [Campredon]

Bajema is a candidate. Conflicting preseason Bajema takes have ranged from certain redshirt to rotation guy. While I don't expect him to be much more than a perimeter gunner if he does play, this scrimmage session made me lean towards the latter. He's not big, but neither is he Caris-skinny (anymore) and hit a couple of confident threes. He did attack a couple closeouts. He got cut off on most of them and had to kick it back out to re-initiate.

I'm saying there's a chance. Two deep bench guys provided a reason or two for hope. Adrien Nunez was able to square up off the move and hit a three out of not much, seeming for an instant like he could be Purdue's Designated Meep-Meep Gunner.

All we're looking for is for Nunez to be a 10 MPG Just A Shooter hitting 40+% and if that's part of his arsenal that's a nice step towards that. He did suffer some DDJ blow-bys.

The second was Eli Brooks, who created a rare uncontested look at the rim for Austin Davis during the third period, when his team was "Eli Brooks and… guys." Shots were difficult to generate and a lot of Michigan's players were more passive than you'd hope for; Brooks was notable in his willingness to probe the defense, even hitting on a couple of tough contested drives. He had five or six assists or shoulda-coulda assists that got tanked by fouls or Davis missing bunnies. Talk from inside the program is that Brooks has always been better in practice than he is in games—otherwise he would not get playing time—so maybe that'll go away when the lights come on.

I'm saying there's a chance Brooks goes from a guy who makes you nervous every time the ball is in his hands to a solid rotation piece. If he can just carry over his play in the last ten or so games last year that'll be enough.

Revised minutes projection. Sure, what the hell:

PG: Simpson 35, Brooks/DDJ 5
SG: Wagner 25, Brooks/DDJ 10, Bajema/Nunez 5
SF: Livers 35, Bajema/Nunez 5
PF: Castleton 20, Johns 20
C: Teske 30, Castleton 10

The Wagner injury will give the four guys in a scrap at the 2 and 3 some extra room to figure out who sticks in and who falls out of the rotation.

Comments

KTisClutch

October 29th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^

I don't see Castleton starting at the 4 and I don't see him playing 20 MPG there. Maybe 5 to 10. Livers is going to play some minutes there. This is evidenced by Livers starting there last night and during the secret scrimmage. If Castleton were looking like the starting 4, there's no reason for Livers to bump down so Adrien Nunez can start at the 3. Also as best I can tell if Johns were healthy he'd either be the 6th man (allowing Livers to move to 3) or would be starting at the 4 so I don't see that being a complete timeshare with Castleton.

 

My minutes projections with Wagner

X 35, DDJ 5

Brooks 20, Wagner 10, DDJ 10

Livers 25, Wagner 10, Nunez/Bajema 5

Johns 25, Castleton 5, Livers 10

Teske 30, Castleton 10

TrueBlue2003

October 29th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^

I hope you're correct because this team needs Brooks and DDJ to combine for more than 15 minutes which is what Brian projects.

I think (hope) Castleton at the four is merely due to injury circumstances.

Comparing him to Reuvers last year isn't really apples to apples because he was the defensive center and guarded pick and rolls (extremely well) while Happ was a very capable wing defender (see: both games he owned Iggy).  On defense, they didn't really have two bigs.  I'm skeptical that Castleton can defend wings and switch as well as Happ, but maybe he can?

And comparing to Jaren Jackson at MSU ignores the fact that that was a terrible lineup that had JJJ playing where he shouldn't have played because it meant Nick Ward was playing the five getting his ankles broken.  There was an excessive big man on the floor even if it wasn't JJJ.

It's really hard to play two bigs unless they're both freak athletes and at least one can sit in the corner and hit threes.

I just have my doubts you can play Teske and Castleton on the defensive end (and while it gives you post up opps, it kills spacing for drives and cutting lanes on the offensive end).

ijohnb

October 29th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^

I think Dejulius will play more like 20-25 minutes per game.  And I think we will really want him to by mid-season.

ijohnb

October 30th, 2019 at 7:24 AM ^

I'm not down on Wagner.  I am high on Dejulius.  I think he is going to be a star and that basically everybody was entirely too dismissive of him after his freshman season (where I think he actually contributed quite nicely and could have done ever more if he was given more minutes).

Shop Smart Sho…

October 29th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^

Maybe I'm too much of a pessimist, but the idea that Wagner is going to go from missing a huge part of the preseason to the starter playing 25 mpg, all while adjusting to a new culture and academic requirements seems a bit far fetched. 

I would also be very surprised if Castleton plays more minutes this season than Johns, barring a Teske/Livers injury.

nerv

October 29th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^

I don't think Wagner playing 25 mpg either as a starter or off the bench is far fetched at all. What I think is extremely far fetched is the idea that he will be playing 20+ of those at the 2. Brian has really been sticking to his guns with Wagner as a 2 guard since before he even committed.

I just don't see how Wagner isn't a huge liability trying to stay in front of guards defensively in the B1G. Then offensively we will only have 1 guy on the court comfortable playing off the dribble. Matt D has been saying for ages that Wagner is more of a project than a plug and play (ala Iggy) college scorer. I think you can get away with him at the 2 against certain matchups and in parts of games, but starting and logging 20+ minutes there? Eh....

EastCoast_Wolv…

October 29th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^

It's so hard to tell what's going to happen here, especially when you think about how much Michigan's performance changes over the course of a season. It's nice to see so many bullets in the chamber-- it feels like you just need to find 1-2 good players and 1-2 decent players out of Wagner/Johns/Castleton/Brooks/DDJ/Bajema/Nunez. The caveat being that Teske and Simpson aren't really capable of playing a secondary position so lineup flexibility is likely to be low, and "hits" on players at the 2-4 spots would be much more welcome than if Castleton, Brooks, or DDJ were the "hits".

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 29th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^

I'm skeptical we remain top-10 in defense after losing Matthews.  Maybe staying top 25/30 will be good enough with an average offense (okay, above average if the 50s is where we sort of project us to fall) so maybe it's a moot point.  But I think we suffer more than we anticipate.

TrueBlue2003

October 29th, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^

Matthews absence shouldn't hurt too bad because a good portion of his minutes will get absorbed by the also excellent Isiah Livers.

In the three games Matthews missed last year, Michigan's defense was only 2.5 points per 100 possessions (opponent adjusted) worse which was an efficiency good enough for 6th over the course of the season. If you want to try to expand sample size, when you include the game he was injured and the three games after he came back but which he only played about 20 min, such that he played only a total of about 90 minutes out of 280 team minutes during that 7 game stretch, Michigan was 5th in defensive efficiency.

Michigan still has an elite defensive PG, an elite pick and roll defending big and an elite switch-everything wing defender.  Brooks is solid (a slight statistical improvement over Poole on defense, in fact) and Iggy's defense is replaceable.

If Michigan is not a top 10 defense, it'll be because they've experienced a significant coaching decline post-Yaklich.  They were 2nd last year and 10th was a whopping 5 points per 100 possessions worse.  There is a big cushion there.  If they're more than 5 pts per 100 worse, that's a fail.

bronxblue

October 29th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^

It's going to be weird seeing a bunch of trees out there as opposed to the more fluid lineups we saw under Beilein.

I do hope DDJ gets into the flow offensively.  Poole had a lot of issues last year but he wasn't afraid to shoot (at least early on), and this team needs that threat.

Alumnus93

October 29th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^

Livers has star potential.    Let's hope he breaks out like I think.  

I don't understand the low opinion of Brooks here.  Simpson beat him out but without Simpson he plays well.  

OkemosBlue

October 29th, 2019 at 5:47 PM ^

Great article! It's the first year with a new head coach, and several major contributors from last year have lefty and the main ones that didn't have an obvious weakness in one area of their game (Simpson has never been able to shoot despite being my hero otherwise; and Teske is a slow big person who hasn't proven he can shoot the three or even often from ten but who can guard rim and score close to the rim), but I'm expect to have some fun along with some gnashing of teeth.  Just seeing the projected backup shooting/ point guard lifts the spirit.  Brooks will hopefully not have to play 20 minutes from necessity alone (not ruling out a sophomore-junior leap), and DDJ will make a reasonable frosh-sophomore leap that will enable him to make a consistent, positive contribution.  Nunez has size and stroke too.  I would guess at shooting guard more likely as he should shoot much better, but maybe at point two.  The inside looks promising at all three positions and backup. I would imagine that Livers will get the most minutes and Castleton and Johns fewer, but just having three people who could potentially play power forward is thrilling!  

AWAS

October 29th, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^

It's a bit ironic that this team projects to have a Beilein-like trajectory this year.  I can easily see some early season scuffling, clear improvement arc as the season progresses, leading to a middling B1G tournament seed with an eyebrow raising performance, and a mid-range NCAA bid as the matchup nightmare team no one wants in their bracket. 

The blog will have the requisite Howls for Howard's Head within the first 10 games, descend into BPONE territory in the dead of winter, and demand Muppets before it's all over.  

HailHail47

October 30th, 2019 at 12:11 AM ^

Scoring will be at a premium for this team. I think Livers sees some time as a stretch 4 again this year as he is far superior  as a scoring threat to the alternatives at that position. The natural place for Wagner is at the 3. The 2 will be a rotation until we find a hot hand. I’m expecting DDJ to get a lot of run here. Nunez hasn’t shown that he can do much else other than shoot to this point, and Bajema seems a little more well rounded with just as good of a shot. 

Z, Livers, and Teske will combine for about 100 minutes a game. The rest is anybody’s guess. Here’s mine:

PG - Z 35, DDJ  & Brooks  5

SG - DDJ 12.5, Brooks 12.5, Wagner 5, Bajema 5, Nunez 5

SF - Wagner 20, Livers 15, Bajema 5

PF - Livers 15, Johns 20, Castleton 5

C - Teske 30, Castleton 10

vanarbor

October 30th, 2019 at 3:57 AM ^

I definitely do not see Castleton playing 30 minutes a game. I think a lot of his minutes get shifted down to Brooks as we'll see smaller lineups with Isaiah continuing to play a lot at the 4.

I'm gonna say:

PG: Simpson-35, DDJ/Brooks 5

SG: Brooks-20, DDJ-10, Wagner-10

SF: Wagner-15, Livers-20, Bajema/Nunez-5

PF: Livers-15, Johns-15, Castleton-10

C: Teske-30, Castleton-10

with the first player in each position as the starter.

To break down, Simpson and Livers play 35 MPG, Teske plays 30 MPG, Wagner plays 25 MPG, Brooks plays around 20-25 MPG, Castleton plays 20 MPG, Johns plays 15 MPG, DDJ plays around 10-15 MPG, and Bajema/Nunez play 0-5 MPG. 

93Grad

October 30th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^

I just don't see it with Nunez.  He has an IBI vibe of a guy who just isn't cut out for this level of basketball.  I hope I am wrong, because we need competent wings, but I don't see it.