27 Tickets To Team 137: Pre-Bowl Edition Comment Count

Brian

What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE  + H-back.

THIS IS THE PRE-BOWL DEBUT OF TEAM 137. Amongst recruits only committed prospects are eligible for the list. We currently believe no one is 51+% to go to the draft early, FWIW, but Lewis, Butt, and Henry are possibilities.

PACK YOUR BAGS

jabrill-peppers_original1. CB/S/KR/PR/WR/RB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers, So.* [Last time: 1]

Began the year as a one-man screen destroyer and ended it as the top option at a half-dozen spots. M may work him in as a RB more; still assume his primary duties will be on defense, where a little bit of development in coverage will make him a scary all-purpose demon. Adding a half dozen touchdowns of all varieties could propel him to NYC.

22076478270_6a4f551efb_z2. CB Jourdan Lewis, Sr. [Last time: 2]

All-American set the single-season Michigan PBU record because opponents kept targeting him despite that being a very, very bad idea. Titanic matchup against future NFLers Cook and Burbridge will be remembered by both sides for a long time. Headed for first round of draft; projected to be too small to do so for the next 12 months.

15721141259_945e5b11d6_z3. LT Mason Cole, Jr. [Last time: 3]

Developed into an A- run blocker and B pass blocker in year two as Michigan's left tackle. Some deficiencies against the top tier pass rushers and will never by NFL prototype. Could move to C if Grant Newsome is as quick a learner as Cole was; 0.0% chance anything save injury pushes him from lineup.

21102392796_dc743b4245_z4. FLEX Jake Butt, Sr. [Last time: 6]

Inexplicably not a Mackey finalist despite athleticism, catching radius, and absolutely fantastic hands. Blocking just okay but far from a liability. Seriously how did this guy not win the Mackey? What are you even doing, Mackey? Are you playing Fallout 4 and randomly selecting guys your slacker brother suggests? Drugs are bad, mmmkay?

10771042363_ffc5f6e5b3_z5. NT Ryan Glasgow, Sr.* [Last time: 13]

Won Order Of St. Kovacs as a sophomore and then turned into a slightly poor man's Mike Martin as a junior before he was hewn down by a shoulder injury. Violent player who added serious pass rush, linchpin of Michigan's rush defense for much of the year, great endurance, if you call him a "former walk-on" he will and should rip your head off.

22243491362_e471dcdd8b_z6. SDE Chris Wormley, Sr* [Last time: 20]

Mega-jumbo defensive end wreckt all tight ends who tried to block him. A key part of Michigan's stunt game and reasonably capable of getting to the QB himself, Wormley matured into an all-around force. Can also play three-tech. As a senior you'd like to see him bring a little bit more organic pass rush to his game but other than that holes are hard to find.

Willie Henry Michigan v Connecticut GVJN3qglVSsl[1]7. 3TECH Willie Henry, Sr.* [Last time: 14]

Bust-out season actually kind of lost in the wash of everyone else's bust-out season on the DL. Pretty much lived up to massive hype from rag-dolling freshman year. Cut a bit too much on stretch plays, occasional inconsistency, but turned potential to production. NFL is listening.

image8. WR Jehu Chesson, Sr.* [Last time: 17]

Open deep all year and finally got on the same page with Rudock late for season-ending surge. Fast. Murderous blocker. Jet sweep maestro. Fast. Polite. Fast. Went from Stonum-ish to Breaston-sih to Manningham-ish over course of season. Huge year beckons if QB situation right.

amara-darboh9. WR Amara Darboh, Sr* [Last time: 10]

Nearly lived up to Avant-esque reputation with series of bonkers catches and chain-moving underneath YAC. Hands maybe a tiny bit iffy. Like Chesson, a quality blocker and a WR screen target thanks to his burly tackle-breaking ability. Got more separation than previous years but not really a burner. Very solid option nonetheless.

21461076504_2ed068da00_z10. K Kenny Allen, Sr.* [Last time: NR]

Early-season kicker worries dissipated as Allen went 14/18 on the year with one miss due to a bad snap and a second that got blown across the face of the uprights by a sudden gust of wind. Didn't hit anything particularly long, but had a bunch of touchbacks when he wanted to have touchbacks. Another year of reliability beckons.

UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS

3143960[1]11. WDE Taco Charlton, Jr. [Last time: 23]

Charlton flashed potential with 5.5 sacks in limited time a year ago and took over the WDE/buck spot late in the year. With everyone else at that spot graduating, Charlton looks like the easy choice. Could lose PT to Marshall or Rueben Jones, both of whom are closer to the LB/DE hybrid the spot is ideally suited for, but should be potential 10-sack guy.

21366899530_17a7ec64a1_z12. ILB Ben Gedeon, Sr. [Last time: NR]

The only returning LB with non-garbage time defensive snaps to his name and starting MLB by default. "Default" is never a good thing to hear in a depth chart discussion but Gedeon has been serviceable to date and should at least continue producing at that level. Inability to wrest more PT from Bolden does worry.

9492930637_b21ba3277f_z13. FS Dymonte Thomas, Sr. [Last time: NR]

Lightning bolt finally figured out the direction he should be zipping halfway through the season, displacing Hill after some bumps. Encouraging play after ascension to starter status relieves post-Wilson worries. Competition here is… uh. Tyree Kinnel, and then a bit of a chasm. A crevasse, maybe.

14703806397_2eda27a3c1_b[1]14. SS Delano Hill,  Sr. [Last time: 21]

Started season as starter before aforementioned hiccups. Still saw plenty of PT after nominal benching and did better. Severe case of Greg Oden disease means he will look exactly the same age—42—for the next 50 years. Must tackle people when behind them, that's a protip.

21952729355_e7989803cd_z15. G Ben Braden, Sr.* [Last time: 26]

People were leery when the tackle-shaped Braden was tried at guard again, and then downright alarmed after Utah's DL put him in the backfield for 60 minutes. Soon after Braden settled down and became M's most consistent lineman behind the two lock starters. Lunging massively reduced. Seemed to know what to do more than others.

385446_3012007678845_1455385026_n1_thumb[1]16. T Erik Magnuson, Sr*. [Last time: 18]

Middling season as a tackle. Okay at run blocking but occasionally frustrating, especially on the second level. Pass protection generally good but, like Cole, struggled to cope with top-shelf rushers. Not going to be All Big Ten next year; difficult to see anyone supplanting him.

20325263056_c05a6e2bee_z17. G Kyle Kalis, Sr* [Last time: 7]

Sounds like Klingon, plays like…  uh… a notoriously confused Star Trek race. Maybe those Darmok guys? Physically powerful and prone to mistakes, Kalis was up and down and up and down. IDed what he was supposed to do too late too often. Probably destined to frustrating what-if player. But if it all comes together clicky clicky etc.

Athletics, David Ablauf18. FB/H-back Henry Poggi, Jr* [Last time: NR]

2015 headshot of the year winner. Lebowski fan. Frequently retweets people saying he looks like an anthropomorphic thumb. Had slightly confused transition to FB/H-back but demonstrated ability to move people as year went on. Not much of a runner yet and will cede snaps to someone (Shallman?) who is. Sometimes there's a man.

FAIRLY SAFE BET

John-OKornEdited-featured19. QB John O'Korn, Jr* [Last time: NR]

Houston transfer was platonic opposite of Jake Rudock: huge arm, aggressive, kinda nuts. 3000 yard freshman year devolved into Hackenberg-like frustration and benching. Touted as superior to Rudock in workouts, and for half of 2015 that was very plausible. Competitors are all freshmen or Borges recruits. In Harbaugh We Trust.

21728973600_e81a8c548a_z20. CB Jeremy Clark, Sr* [Last time: NR]

Skepticism was rife when Richard Sherman-sized safety transitioned to corner but results were rather good. Clark mirrored a ton of routes, had the speed to run deep, and was mostly beaten when his coverage ran afoul of local occult feng shui. Did get burned in zone against MSU, but that's mentality, not ability. Could break out into star. Stribling lurks.

68221. TE Khalid Hill, Jr.* [Last time: NR]

Isaiah Hole fan should be first in line to cover the surprisingly painful loss of AJ Williams. PT increased as year went along; reputed to have superior hands for the position; squat but heavy (270), which should help him get under DL who are still bigger than him. Competition for TE snaps will be fierce.

21329877114_0c444963b7_z22. OT Grant Newsome, So. [Last time: NR]

Burned redshirt after LTT's dismissal and looked the part of a sun-eclipsing, rush-obliterating NFL left tackle in the mold of Long or Lewan. Even wore 77 to speed those comparisons. Long way from looking like it to being it. Major X-factor for season as sudden emergence into good LT frees up Cole to put out most pressing fire elsewhere.

21136779871_e4f783832e_z23. SLOT Grant Perry, So. [Last time: NR]

Freshman thrust into the fray in opener, whereupon he was responsible for two INTs and relegated to spot duty for the rest of the season. Role naturally limited in Harbauffense; did get a bunch of snaps late as M abandoned running the ball. Solid blocker on screens and promises to be a consistent underneath option once he learns what he's doing.

IN A BATTLE

21547425519_ed299d318a_z24. RB De'Veon Smith, Jr.* [Last time: 25]

Run at left emblematic of season, as he missed his hole but ran over half of BYU to score anyway. Erratic vision, slow, impossible to tackle, fantastic blocker—Smith is a guy who helps you win football games but maybe not as a feature back. Will be pushed by anyone on the roster, including Peppers, and hopefully #1 RB Kareem Walker.

21764560810_234ff6a712_z25. ILB Noah Furbush, So* [Last time: NR]

Linebacker-shaped human with eligibility who saw the field last year so here he is. Had a number of excellent special teams plays. Still needs a pile of weight—listed at a WR-ish 217 on the roster, and looks like it next to Gedeon. Could easily be supplanted by incoming freshman. HEY, POTENTIALLY INCOMING ILB FRESHMEN, READ THIS SECTION.

bilde[1]26. SAM Jared Wangler, So* [Last time: NR]

Marginalized spot in Michigan's defense last year projects to remain so this year, but Michigan does need a guy to go up against manball outfits since they will play Wisconsin and Iowa in 2016. Wangler is a linebacker-shaped human, so here he is. One-time PSU commit, so that's a good sign. Son of John, of course.

1280px-Boxingkangaroo.svg[1]27. P TBA, ??? [Last time: NR]

Baxter reputedly in search for an Aussie to be named later. After watching Blake O'Neill delicately feather every punt inside the five I'm down with that as long as this one is clear on what to do if he drops the ball. Kenny Allen, who was a punter before he was kicker, is also an option and is likely to be the fallback plan.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

PUSHING FROM BEHIND

QB Zach Gentry—rumors of move to TE way overblown. M will take extended look.
QB Wilton Speight—threw winning TD against Minnesota but didn't look like a guy who had a shot at displacing O'Korn. Could transfer.

RB Ty Isaac—doghouse for fumbling and then doghouse for extracurriculars.
RB Drake Johnson—had a moment there, and then it passed. Also dinged up. Could take fifth year elsewhere.
RB Karan Higdon—quick little guy had one nice carry and got swarmed a lot at LOS.

WR Moe Ways—Darboh analogue had a few catches, should be eased into more PT with an eye towards 2017.
WR Drake Harris—temporarily healthy, did little, still really skinny, got hurt again.
TE Ian Bunting—Ol' Skillet Hands saw PT drop as season progressed, but just one year removed from being HS WR so not a surprise.
TE Ty Wheatley Jr.—jumbo TE took redshirt, will try to be AJ-Williams-but-fast.

C Patrick Kugler—will be a redshirt junior; given performance this year could displace starter. Magnuson, Cole flexibility means that if he's best five he plays.
G David Dawson—stuck behind middling Gs a year ago, will get a shot.

NT Bryan Mone—massive space eater missed 2015 with eventually disastrous results
3T Maurice Hurst—fantastic player for most of the year, bad against stretches.
SDE Matt Godin—solid PT early, overwhelmed by doubles late, move him to DE plz.
WDE Reuben Jones—first Harbaugh pickup coming off redshirt.

SAM Allen Gant—exists, so on the two deep at LB.
WLB Mike McCray—mysterious health issue dog him. Exists, so on the two deep at LB.
ILB Chase Winovich—is not a LB, technically, but FFS move him back already.

CB Channing Stribling—maybe 30% of the snaps last year; middling performance.
CB Brandon Watson—saw some nickel snaps when M was trying to save Peppers a bit.
S Tyree Kinnel—burned redshirt indicates he'll compete for the job.

WAITING THEIR TURN

QB Alex Malzone—not going to compete physically w/ O'Korn or Gentry but could develop into a Rudock type down the road.
QB Brandon Peters—true freshman will enter with a boatload of hype
QB Shane Morris—will he be on the roster?

FB Wyatt Shallman—now is the time to try his blocking out. Constantly hurt.

WR DaMario Jones—scattered snaps a year ago, got passed by guys younger than him.

WDE Lawrence Marshall—ghost after enormous pile of spring hype.
SDE Shelton Johnson—probably has to cool his heels and put on more weight.

CB Keith Washington—Breaston-esque HS QB competing at CB, coming off redshirt.
CB Freddy Canteen—moved from WR. It could happen?
S Brian Cole—midseason move to S will require at least a year of apprenticeship.

Comments

Yard Dog

December 1st, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^

It amazes me how much Harbaugh uses and also gets out of his tight ends.  He obviously taught David Shaw well, saw the same philosophy in the Stanford/Notre Dame game. It is fun as hell to watch us line up with multiple TEs and a FB and come crashing downhill. Excited to see what that will look like with an even better OL.

Hoping that Nauta has seen this trend also and realizes how much a great TE can be featured. Also excited to see Wheatley in this offense. Could be devastating.

FauxMo

December 1st, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^

I would bet the tip of my left pinky and my less-important testicle that this does NOT happen: "RB Drake Johnson—had a moment there, and then it passed. Also dinged up. Could take fifth year elsewhere."

EGD

December 2nd, 2015 at 1:31 AM ^

Presumably he'll get his degree in April. I think Drake Johnson is a good player and I hope he's on the team next season--but if he's not going to have a major role, doing a grad transfer might be in his best interest. He could find a team where he could get the lion's share of carries, and maybe get to experience living somewhere new for a year.

TrueBlue2003

December 1st, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

before anyone assumes improvement will be linear and positive the next few years, the 2-deep suggests otherwise.

With 15 of the top 17 returners (according to this list) leaving after next year*, 2017 and 2018 loom as potential "rebuilding" years as late Hoke era recruiting gaps and attrition rear their ugly heads. Going to be very young those years.

If we can find a QB and LB's, next year should be outstanding though. Let's get that champtionship!  Just gotta navigate the brutal schedule.

* assuming Peppers leaves and Cole and Charlton are the only returners.

MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

I know we all view this as a bad sign, but isn't this how it largely should be for most elite programs?  Take away a couple burned redshirts, and shouldn't we be happy for that situation?  The only real troubling aspect is that because this year's senior class is so small, next year's class is disproportionately large.  

It's not like guys don't exist on the roster, they just haven't supplanted generally good players.  We're thin at spots in certain classes, as every program is, but that doesn't mean we're going to be very very young.  We'll be young and inexperienced in 2017, but there could also be a lot of talent.  Plus, a lot of those youngsters are going to be filling out the two deep next year as Juniors, Sophomores, and RS Freshmen.  Lets see what they bring to the table before we start panicking about 2017.  

robpollard

December 1st, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

I agree 2017 will be a young team, but if you want to be an elite program, you have to still be able to excel during those times. Maybe that's not the year you go 11-1 or 12-0, but 9-3 or 10-2 should still be a reasonable goal *if* you are recruiting at an elite level (which we haven't really done in a decade-plus).

Florida State is a perfect example. They won a title two years ago; got in the final four last year; tons of people left for the NFL and thus this year's team is *very* young, e.g. starting a true frosh at LT, SS and Buck and RS frosh elsewhere (see depth chart). They still went 10-2 . And next year they'll be a Top 5 team.

Harbaugh will have to bring in a top 8 class this year and next year for us to be a 9 or more win team in 2017. Not easy, but that's what he's been hired to do.

 

reshp1

December 1st, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^

Projecting that far out in college ball is always scary. That's 1/4+ of a player's career. In 2013, looking at 2015, we were losing:

Gardner

Lewan

Schofield

Miller

Toussaint

Rawls

Dileo

Funchess

F. Clark

Black

Washington

Beyer

R. Taylor

Countess

T. Gordon

Avery

Gibbons

Hagerup

Wile

It's not quite as bad, but we were a very young team in 2013. If you do the same exercise for 2011 looking at 2013, it'd probably be as bad as this year.

By this spring, hype will roll out about guys we haven't heard much about, and then next fall, they and others will emerge. This year's freshman will be coming off of back-up duty and redshirts, and there will be a few true freshman in 2017 that will contribute too. 

TrueBlue2003

December 1st, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^

It's one year. 2016 to 2017. Look at the top 17 on this list. Those are the projected top 17 guys on the team next year. Only 2 of them are likely to return in 2017 (and even those two are iffy: Cole and Charlton).  We're just saying that for everyone talking about 2017 being "the year", it's more likely that next year we compete again for the conf title with 2017-2018 being semi-rebuild 8 or 9 win seasons.

It's not that a lot of guys are leaving, because yes, that happens to good programs. It's that a lot of the best players on the team next year will leave and what is replacing them is the small 2014 class and small transitional 2015 class as opposed to the excellent and large 2012 and 2013 classes that replaced the (mostly mediocre) players on your list and are now making 2015 and potentially 2016 great years.

Entire point being that coaching transitions tend to make it tough in year 3-4 for the new guy if it creates uneven recruiting class numbers and attrition. We've seen it with the last couple of transitions and should be prepared to see a dip again. The recruiting isn't clicking like Florida State for multiple years in a row yet.  That's how you reload.

Then again, if we land a top 5 class this year and next full of ready players, all bets are off with Harbaugh and the sky is the limit.

los barcos

December 1st, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^

exactly.  Those who are blindly predicting year 3 when we take off should take a look at the two deep and what we lose in 2017.  Next year is a critical year where we need to do well enough to keep positive momentum knowing that we may have to rebuild in 2017.  trouble with next year is that schedule though...

funkywolve

December 1st, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^

I don't think next years schedule is as tough as people are making it.  The non-conference portion shouldn't be nearly as tough.  Hawaii and UCF should be blowouts.  Colorado might be a decent game but that'd be a major upset if CU wins.

Wisky comes on the schedule but with the Badgers offense that should be a team right in UM's wheelhouse.

I essentially see 3 tricky games - at Iowa, at MSU and at OSU.  Iowa looks like they bring back a decent amount on offense and a good amount on defense.  OSU will be tough.  MSU loses some key pieces - Cook being the biggest loss.  To me, the floor for next year is 9-3.

oriental andrew

December 1st, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^

National rankings for:

Yards:

  • Hunter Henry (AR) - #1 (647 yards)
  • Jake Butt - #4 (620)
  • Jordan Leggett (CLEM) - #21 (418)
  • Austin Hooper (STAN) - #22 (406)

Receptions

  • Jake Butt - #5 (48 receptions)
  • Hunter Henry (AR) - #7 (46)
  • Jordan Leggett (CLEM) - #26 (31)
  • Austin Hooper (STAN) - #29 (29)

Touchdowns

  • Austin Hooper (STAN) - 6 TDs
  • Jordan Leggett (CLEM) - 6 TDs
  • Jake Butt - 3 TDs
  • Hunter Henry (AR) - 3 TDs
  • NOTE: 3 TEs have 8 TDs to lead the nation; 3 TD's isn't that far down the list.

Hooper and Leggett got the votes (IMO) because they are on high profile teams. If Michigan beats ohio state, I bet Butt gets the nod for a final 3 spot. 

 

Amaizing Blue

December 1st, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

Looks like the Jason Patric liquid metal Terminator when he's in human form.  Judging by his expression, the ending to the movie changed and he killed both Arnold and John Connor.

alum96

December 1st, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^

It's another yr where outside DL you worry about depth. Think team wore down some in Nov as frontline players play so much due to that dropoff.  We seem to be pretty solid (Ex rb, ex lb) as starters assuming QB is settled but a lot of position groups ex DL can't really handle even 1 injury to a starter without a big drop off.  We were sort of fortunate in injuries this year in total and where they hit -  two spots we had a lot of players (DL, rb).  Cant count on that every year so depth has to improve.

I feel like this is the 4th year in a row you want to wrap the starting safeties in bubble wrap until next August.  Ty Kinnel is a guy I have high hopes for and I hope is pushing Delano next year.

Last year I thought Wormley and henry were 2 guys who had breakout potential (totally missed glasgow being so good).  Next year the guys with the big ceilings might be Chesson, Thomas (finally?) and Clark.  First two began to flash in Nov big time so could set up for breakout yrs.  Thomas had 2 awesome open field tacles vs OSU ealy last week b4 stuff fell apart. One of the few guys who has the speed to match OSU in space.

I liked Clark's year a lot more than most here - for a guy who was doing a position switch at a very difficult position he was rarely out of position and even completions often came on very well thrown balls.  Could take a big leap after a full year at position.

I am hoping Newsome is the real deal to get into lineup and move Cole inside but TBD!  Same hope for Marshall on other side of line.

Would love a 2nd TE to emerge to take our offense to next level too.  Bunting? hill??

Drake harris - please get healthy and put on 15 lbs.

MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^

I think you are overly optimistic about how much depth a program can reasonbly collect.  Good depth in college football is having the ability to replace one player at any position group (LBs, TEs, WRs, etc.) and not experience a serious drop-off.  Beyond that, unless you're Alabama with #1 ranked recruiting classes piled on top of #1 ranked recruiting classes, cumulative injuries are going to hurt.  There are very, very few position groups that are going to survive losing your top two at a position like we did with NT.  

Even teams with really good years have to fight through weakness caused by injuries because you simply can't have that much depth.  MSU's struggles on the O-line and in the secondary were due in large part to cumulative injuries.  No program is able to just lose two or three starters on the line and keep chugging away like nothing happened.  

I'd also say that it's not fair to say there's no depth when we haven't seen what these guys are going to do when given the chance.  Safety is a good example.  You, as did most of us, wanted to wrap our starters in bubble wrap.  Yet, by the end of the year, Thomas had at least equaled Hill if not passed him.  Depth was there at safety, we just didn't know it yet.  

 

Tuebor

December 1st, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^

Hoke's QB recruiting was atrocious. An Iowa cast off is only 222 yards away from having the second most single season passing yards in school history. Hoke was lucky that RRod left him Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner. Without those 2 the Hoke era would have been even worse.

Just look at what Hoke's QB recruits have done.
Combined they have a 3.76 YPA, and 1:10 TD to INT ratio.
Bellomy - 23 Attempts, 4 completions, 46 yards, 0 TDs, 4 Ints.
Morris - 87 Attempts, 43 completions, 389 yards, 0 TDs, 5 Ints.
Speight - 25 Attempts, 9 completions, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Malzone - Redshirting

There is no doubt that John O'Korn is going to start next year for Michigan and Gentry will likely back him up.  I'd be shocked if a Hoke QB recruit ever starts a game for Michigan under Harbuagh.