S&P+ offense rankings through seven games
If you clicked on this link you must really be in the Halloween spirit, because what you're about to see is truely macabre.
Summary of Michigan's S&P+ rakings on offense over the last several years
Year |
Overall |
Rushing |
Passing |
Success Rate |
IsoPPP |
2017 (through 7 games) |
85th |
41st |
74th |
37th |
56th |
2016 |
40th |
49th |
29th |
19th |
46th |
2015 |
38th |
61st |
17th |
29th |
22nd |
2014 |
89th |
62nd |
84th |
42nd |
97th |
2013 |
50th |
74th |
25th |
- |
- |
Note - Success Rate is a measure of efficiency (staying ahead of the chains), and IsoPPP is a measure of explosiveness (big plays)
Nothing too surprising here. The one positive I would take away is that the run offense is already demonstrably better than the last two years. And it probably would be ranked closer to 20th if opposing safeties had any respect for the passing game.
For comparison, in Harbaugh's third year at Stanford, he had the 6th ranked S&P+ offense. He also had two All-American offensive tackles, David Shaw at OC, and Luck under center.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
"Ja’Raymond Hall is the next Larry Allen and Brandon Peters is the next Joe Montana" (eye roll)
"Next year we are 15-0 and Ja’Raymond Hall wins the heisman" (smirk)
"During his national title speech, Harbaugh will run into the stands and punch Paul Finebaum" (smile, chuckle, upvote)
October 26th, 2017 at 12:07 PM ^
*Pete
October 26th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:17 AM ^
Wow. This really need to dramatically improve in the next couple of years. With Don Brown and the types of recruits we are getting on D, I expect to always be in the top 10, but our offense needs to crack top 30 to really be a threat.
Last year with the 40th ranked offense we lost a total of 3 games by by a combined 5 points. You have a slightly better offense, one that can run the clock out in 4th quarters, and you win those games.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
Depends what your goals are. Top 30 might be enough to win the Big Ten, but its not enough if winning it all is the goal. S&P+ ranks of the last five national champs (offense/defense)
'16 Clemson 6/6
'15 Alabama 24/1
'14 Ohio State 1/14
'13 FSU 1/1
'12 Alabama 3/1
Alabama in 2015 is the only one in the last 5 years that's had an offense that's been ranked outside of the top 25 in S&P+ on offense and they had a soul crushing defense that year. Basically if your goal is to compete for and win the CFP, then you pretty much have to have a top 10 offense and defense, and probably more likely a top 5 offense and defense.
October 26th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
Getting to where Michigan can challenge for the Big Ten title is really the next reasonable step. That puts us into the playoff picture and then we can start talking about Nattys.
October 26th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
Kinda the same thing though. Challenging for the Big Ten title is basically the same as challenging for the CFP, because winning the Big Ten is (generally) a ticket to the playoff. You can't have a goal of winning the Big Ten without also having a goal of making the playoff. They are like muppets. You can't have one without the other.
So while aiming for a top 5 offense and defense is likely the goal beyond the goal, in the Big Ten they are still going to need a top 10'ish offense and defense to win the whole thing because that is what Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin generally have.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
Don Brown is 62. Nobody is hiring him as a head coach at this point.
October 26th, 2017 at 1:20 PM ^
There are certainly schools that would happily hire Don Brown to be their head coach. Just not any blue blood programs and he's too old to go to, say, UConn for 4 years and then get hired by a top tier program.
Perfect situation to have him around long-term for Michigan as long as he doesn't want to go coach a UConn.
October 26th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^
we're talking 6-8 years before he hangs it up. Can't imagine he would want to or be effective coaching into his 70s. But yeah, we're fine for a while.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
". With Don Brown and the types of recruits we are getting on D, I expect to always be in the top 10, but our offense needs to crack top 30 to really be a threat. "
Realistically - you almost have to have a top 10 S&P Defense AND a top 10 S&P Offense to win national championships.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
Gross
October 26th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
We are 6th in the B1G, only 1 yard behind PSU.
Total Offense | G | Rush | Pass |
Wisconsin | 7 | 1798 | 1441 |
Ohio State | 7 | 1754 | 2287 |
Minnesota | 7 | 1316 | 1112 |
Michigan State | 7 | 1242 | 1367 |
Penn State | 7 | 1214 | 2029 |
Michigan | 7 | 1213 | 1314 |
Maryland | 7 | 1212 | 1091 |
Rutgers | 7 | 1174 | 935 |
Purdue | 7 | 1026 | 1676 |
Northwestern | 7 | 958 | 1798 |
Nebraska | 7 | 935 | 1764 |
Iowa | 7 | 921 | 1531 |
Indiana | 7 | 918 | 1654 |
Illinois | 7 | 831 | 1360 |
October 26th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:38 AM ^
Our next 3 opponents are WAY worse.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:44 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
That must mean our defense is REALLY overrated, if they gained 506 yards and scored 42 points on us.
October 26th, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^
It's really not. They're ranked 10 in S&P, and I would say they should be a few spots higher. They gained 1100+ total yards of offense against Iowa and Michigan, which is really quite the accomplishment. Of course they still have to play OSU and MSU so we'll know more very soon...but they're every bit as good as an offense with a Heisman-frontrunner should look.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^
The reason we are ranked so high in rushing (if you call 41 high) is because of the number of pass-centric offenses out there. The B1G as a whole likes to run the ball and play defense.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
S&P+ is a measurement of how effective a team is at a particular skill, not a measurement of raw yardage.
For instance, no one would call Texas Tech a running team (#7 in the Big 12 in rushing yds / game). But they have the 17th ranked S&P+ rush offense becasue when they do run, they run effectively.
This is also why even though Michigan ran all over bad teams last year, their S&P+ rushing rank was only 49th, becasue the did nothing against good defenesive fronts.
October 26th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
Second place is the first loser.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^
Third place is you're fired.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:37 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
and 2015 Rudock looking pretty good right about now.
October 26th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
Who would have thought that when he transferred in, Rudock would become the best passing QB in the last decade at Michigan.
October 26th, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^
and literally no one else.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
I know I am not a stat's wiz, but how are we 85th overall when none of our idividual rankings are below 74 and the rest are better than 56? Something seems off there.
October 26th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:58 PM ^
S&P+ rankings are kind of weird, there's like logarithms in there or something
October 26th, 2017 at 11:41 AM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^
October 26th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
Encouraging. Our run O is improving even without any help from the passing O to draw people out of the box.
Most of the offensive struggles seem attributable to playing our struggling backup QB and having so much youth/injuries at WR/TE.
October 26th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
At least the defense is top 10
October 26th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
This is a bit misleading, since those season totals included games against your Rutgers's, your Illinois's, your Maryland's. Yes, they also include games against good to elite defenses as well, but it's quite possible the offense improves a bit just because the competition these next couple of weeks look a bit easier to move against. I agree the offense has struggled, but considering some the turmoil and the schedule breakdown we should see an uptick these nexgt couple of weeks.