Bill Connelly releases projected 2016 S&P+ rankings

Submitted by MichiganStephen on

Bill Connelly of S&P+ rankings fame has released his 2016 projections. Michigan comes in at 6, OSU at 14 and MSU at 22. The next B1G team is Nebraska at 26.

The biggest surprise to me is Washington at 10, although many in the media expect them to have a great year as Chris Petersen enters his third season.

What are your thoughts?

MGoBoard
Football

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^

It would be an upset if UM is not 7-0 going into that game as its a back loaded schedule.

ND I think loses a lot but has a returning QB and if there is 1 coach who has Dantonio's # its Brian Kelly.  You need a dynamic QB with the ability to throw over the top to beat MSU's scheme and ND has that, and its in South Bend so I see that as a loss. 

MSU has Wisconsin at home and Indiana on the road but Indiana has lost its QB and RB .... Wisconsin matches up perfectly with MSU's D without a dynamic QB so I see MSU winning those 2.  The interesting game is BYU as the QB has an arm to strife MSU IF that OL can hold up.  Then again BYU's D will probably get physically dominated by MSU but it could be an interesting one.

I think MSU will be 10-2 or 9-3 so hopefully ND and UM are 2 of the losses and then we'll see what OSU can do up in EL.  MSU might be 6-1 entering that game as I dont see man QBs on their schedule early to challenge them outside BYU and ND.   MSU OSU play in Nov at which point OSU should be near top level but they need their QB to play like 2014 and not 2015 since MSU will sacrifice all to take away your run game.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

Optimism Attache

February 8th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^

Big Ten gets absolutely demoloshed in S&P for 2016. May not be as extreme a fall as Bill predicts, but it won't be pretty. Luckily, Michigan is the exception, and I agree with that projection.

Joined: 09/13/2011

MGoPoints: 24008

Tater

February 8th, 2016 at 11:46 AM ^

OSU and Sparty will start out the season ranked fairly high, possibly in the top ten.  

Sparty plays ND and Wiscy in weeks 2 and 3; that should result in at least one loss, putting them in the "second ten."  They could lose both and fall out of the top 25, depending on how they respond to all of their graduation losses.

OSU plays Oklahoma in week 3.  We'll know by then if the Best Big 10 Team Money Can Buy is able to "reload" or if they are going to be in a transition year.  I am betting they "reload" and are still tough.

The best news: both are going to be beatable for Michigan this year.  That doesn't mean Michigan will beat both, but last year sorta proved that home and road don't mean a lot in any game between Michigan, Sparty and OSU.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^

I think other than 3-4 teams in the country ala FSU ALA and maybe soon OSU returning players is among the most important criteria.  I know one of the CFB guys puts out a list of teams by returning starters each year and I like to mine the data there.  OSU will be among the lowest - if not THE lowest - in all of CFB with 6.  UM should be pretty damn high, certainly in the top 10 percentile.  Then in 2017 we will be among the lowest.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

Brian.

February 8th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^

1. Bama 2. Ohio state 3. Georgia 4. Oregon 5. Auburn 6. Ole Miss 7. UCLA 8. LSU 9. MSU 10. Oklahoma. Not bad at all. A couple of teams fell due to injury (UGA and Oregon) and a couple of others were busts last year(Ucla, Lsu and Auburn). So 7/10 were good picks if you dont include injuries which you cant project.

Joined: 01/29/2016

MGoPoints: -53

FauxMo

February 8th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

I project I still want to see us play the games before I get too excited. I also project, however, that these projections will really piss off Sharty and the Worthless Nuts, which is nice...

Joined: 06/17/2010

MGoPoints: 137622

WolvinLA2

February 8th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^

I also think Penn State is too high. I think they'd be psyched with 28th in the country (well they wouldn't be, but they should be). That team won't be good, they'll have a hard time keeping their 7-6 streak alive.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 58189

djlaczyn

February 8th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^

Beside UM of course, I'm most interested in Iowa and MSU next year. I know Iowa ended with quite a thud, but I still think they were/are a top 25 team. As far as I can find, it doesn't seem like they lose much this year. Definitely have their QB and King back on defense. I was surprised Nebraska was ranked higher. As far as MSU, I could see a significant drop off. At the very least I can't see them improving this year, although the last few years have made me a little gun shy trying to bet against them. My brain tells me they stay right inside/outside the top 25. 

Joined: 12/17/2014

MGoPoints: 25

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^

MSU had a lot of injuries in the game vs UM.  They improved late in the year as their injury situation improved.  I dont think UM got the best version of MSU - it was basically a star QB and a star WR on offense and thankfully our special teams was dominant until "That".  And we had a lot of short fields.  We still struggled to get offense because Rudock didnt take his big step until the next week - if November Rudock had been there vs MSU it would have been an interesting game, as you beat 2015 MSU thru the air and we barely tried.

MSU is not going anywhere until Dantonio retires.  Even that 2012 team everyone points to I think they lost 5 games by a combined 12 pts.  All the breaks they got in 2015 went against them in 2012.  And they have 2 QBs who have been in the system 3-4 years unlike 2012 when they basically had Maxwell or bust.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

bronxblue

February 8th, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^

The thing with injuries, though, is that some of those guys won't be back. Conklin and Allen are gone, and while Kieler and Brian Allen are back they still are breaking in a fair number of kids on that line. Defensively they should have some depth back, but Williamson is gone at safety and so is large chunks of that line. And from what I've read, MSU fans are not crazy about the secondary, and they missed on a couple of bigger recruits this cycle there. So if they win this year, it may be based on a lot of luck against the better teams on the schedule.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172112

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

Iowa doesnt lose too much.  But they had a magical year with an easy schedule.

As for MSU your call for MSU to fall off significantly is the 92,302th on this blog the past 3 years.  Their defense strength will change IMO from front 7 to back 7 with a solid front 4 but not dominant like last year.  All those young secondary players who were burnt to shreds come back with a year of experience.  And Malik McDowell might be one of the top 3 players in the conference.  Their D will be good - as it almost always is.  On offense they have to figure out some thingso on the OL, WR, and QB.   I expect a lot of true freshman WRs out there and its asking a lot for them to have immediate impact but they have four 4* so I expect at least one to shine.  They have good RBs, but will have some dropoff on the OL.  And they have two QBs with decent experience for a non starter in terms of year in the system to compete.

MSU wont have as dynamic of an offense but will have a good defense paired with a Tressel like offense and will be coached well as always.  I dont see any "signifcant" drop off - 9 to 10 wins is now a down year in the Dantonio era.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

bronxblue

February 8th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

Iowa always felt like a bit of a mirage, but if they can keep the offensive turnovers down they will win a bunch of games just because of their schedule. They won't win the conference or anything, but 9 wins isn't crazy. MSU won't be a 7 win club, but that defensive backfield isn't going to become as dominant as the defensive line was to offset for that drop off. Their LBs look good, and I agree McDowell is a great tackle. But the offensive line is going to lose two all conference players and wasn't all that good last year anyway. The running game should be fine, but they aren't going to be a to bludgeon the good teams in their schedule like they had in the past. And QB will be interesting because it seems like they'll move more to a spread style attack, or at least some more read option given O'Connor and Terry not being prototypical gunners. 9 wins seems reasonable. we'll know more after they play ND.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172112

WolvinLA2

February 8th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^

No one is expecting them to fall off "significantly" but they should take a step back this year. They've benefited the last few years from having talent in almost every position group plus a future-NFL QB. Now they not only need to replace him with a QB who is almost certainly inferior (to go along with inexperienced) but they have multiple position groups that will need to replace a lot of talent (OL, WR and DL). Sure, they return a lot of guys in the defensive backfield, but those guys were not good and one year isn't going to change that. I just don't see where MSU's strength will be this year, and they won't have multiple strengths like they've had the last few years.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 58189

LSAClassOf2000

February 8th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^

The full Big Ten list is interesting, but here are the full top five - 

#6 - Michigan

#14 - Ohio State

#22 - Michigan State

#26 - Nebraska

#28 - Penn State

The top five are pretty consistent with a discussion someone tried to start in a thread a few days ago about the relative disparity in recruiting rankings among the divisions of the Big Ten. Historically, these teams above have also been the top five in recruiting class rankings in the conference most years. Four of these five, of course, are in the East Division.

The rest of conference falls in from #37 (Iowa) to #88 (poor damn Purdue). 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130827

NittanyFan

February 8th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^

Iowa finished 47th (!!!) in the 2015 S&P+ final rankings.  That would be 1-spot behind Utah State, who finished 6-7 while playing a Mountain West schedule.

Take Iowa's 47th ranking FWIW, but no doubt it has a significant factor in terms of the 2016 projections.

I tend to prefer FEI versus S&P+, but Iowa wasn't great in the 2015 FEI final rankings either.  34th overall.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 44012

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^

Iowa needs to play the disrespekt card.

I dont believe they lose a lot really - and they avoid MSU and OSU on their crossovers.   They get UM, WIsc, NW, and Neb at home.

@PSU and @Minn are their 2 toughest road games.   I see they surprising to the upside next year with a senior Qb. 

 

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

JimHarbaughFacts

February 8th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^

but doesn't weight for positional importance of impact.  IE, I can never put LSU that high as they have not developed a QB in a decade.  LSU would essentially be Alabama over the past 7 years if they could develop a QB.  

Joined: 02/04/2016

MGoPoints: 41

Perkis-Size Me

February 8th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^

Pretty low for OSU. Yeah they lose a lot of guys, but they'll just plug in another 4-5 star guy and get championship caliber production by season's end.

They could start slow and lose at Oklahoma, but I'd bet they finish the regular season with no less than 10-11 wins.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 106353

gremlin3

February 8th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^

They do a much better job of telling you what happened, not what will happen. For example, S&P+ as a betting tool doesn't do much better than the average fan, slightly above 50%, even for the last full week of the regular season.

Here's a table of Projected S&P+ rankings vs. Final S&P+ results for 2015:

Proj. Rk Team Proj. S&P+ Final Rk School S&P+ S&P Δ Rank Δ  
1 Alabama 24.4 1 Alabama 30 5.6 0  
2 Ohio State 24 3 Ohio State 24 0 -1  
3 Georgia 20.9 32 Georgia 10 -10.9 -29  
4 Oregon 20.5 25 Oregon 11.6 -8.9 -21  
5 Auburn 19.5 35 Auburn 9.7 -9.8 -30  
6 Ole Miss 18.2 5 Ole Miss 21.2 3 1  
7 UCLA 18 23 UCLA 12.4 -5.6 -16  
8 LSU 17.9 9 LSU 18.6 0.7 -1  
9 Michigan State 17.2 13 Michigan State 15.9 -1.3 -4  
10 Oklahoma 17 4 Oklahoma 22.6 5.6 6  
11 Stanford 16.9 10 Stanford 18.4 1.5 1  
12 Arkansas 16.7 15 Arkansas 15.3 -1.4 -3  
13 USC 16.1 17 USC 14.9 -1.2 -4  
14 Baylor 15.3 14 Baylor 15.6 0.3 0  
15 Clemson 14.8 2 Clemson 27.4 12.6 13  
16 Notre Dame 14.4 8 Notre Dame 18.8 4.4 8  
17 Florida State 14.3 7 Florida State 20 5.7 10  
18 TCU 14.2 26 TCU 11.4 -2.8 -8  
19 Georgia Tech 14 68 Georgia Tech 1 -13 -49  
20 Tennessee 13.9 22 Tennessee 12.5 -1.4 -2  
21 Mississippi State 12.9 16 Mississippi State 15 2.1 5  
22 Texas A&M 12.7 42 Texas A&M 7.7 -5 -20  
23 Missouri 12.6 85 Missouri -2.9 -15.5 -62  
24 Arizona State 12.3 57 Arizona State 5.1 -7.2 -33  
25 Wisconsin 11.8 31 Wisconsin 10.3 -1.5 -6  
26 Virginia Tech 11.4 59 Virginia Tech 4.2 -7.2 -33  
27 Boise State 10.9 41 Boise State 7.8 -3.1 -14  
28 Miami 10.8 51 Miami-FL 6 -4.8 -23  
29 Florida 10.4 18 Florida 14.3 3.9 11  
30 Nebraska 9.7 48 Nebraska 7.1 -2.6 -18  
31 South Carolina 9.5 88 South Carolina -4.1 -13.6 -57  
32 Louisville 9 28 Louisville 10.9 1.9 4  
33 Kansas State 8.8 84 Kansas State -2.4 -11.2 -51  
34 Arizona 8.8 77 Arizona -0.8 -9.6 -43  
35 Michigan 8.8 6 Michigan 21.1 12.3 29  
36 Texas 8.6 72 Texas -0.3 -8.9 -36  
37 Penn State 8.4 30 Penn State 10.4 2 7  
38 Pittsburgh 7.9 40 Pittsburgh 8.2 0.3 -2  
39 Utah 7.4 27 Utah 11.4 4 12  
40 West Virginia 7.2 24 West Virginia 12 4.8 16  
41 Marshall 5.9 64 Marshall 2.4 -3.5 -23  
42 Minnesota 5 37 Minnesota 9.1 4.1 5  
43 Oklahoma State 4.6 33 Oklahoma State 9.9 5.3 10  
44 North Carolina 4.6 29 North Carolina 10.6 6 15  
45 BYU 4.4 38 BYU 8.9 4.5 7  
46 Virginia 4.1 73 Virginia -0.3 -4.4 -27  
47 Cincinnati 3.8 74 Cincinnati -0.5 -4.3 -27  
48 NC State 3.8 36 NC State 9.7 5.9 12  
49 Boston College 3.2 67 Boston College 1.4 -1.8 -18  
50 Louisiana Tech 2.7 54 Louisiana Tech 5.8 3.1 -4  
51 California 1.6 34 California 9.9 8.3 17  
52 Kentucky 1.4 95 Kentucky -6.9 -8.3 -43  
53 Texas Tech 1.3 62 Texas Tech 3.5 2.2 -9  
54 Duke 0.9 75 Duke -0.6 -1.5 -21  
55 Washington 0.8 12 Washington 17.1 16.3 43  
56 Maryland 0.7 65 Maryland 1.8 1.1 -9  
57 Iowa 0.7 47 Iowa 7.3 6.6 10  
58 Navy 0.6 20 Navy 13 12.4 38  
59 Utah State 0.5 46 Utah State 7.3 6.8 13  
60 Central Florida -0.2 125 Central Florida -22.3 -22.1 -65  
61 Western Kentucky -0.4 11 Western Kentucky 17.5 17.9 50  
62 Northwestern -0.8 56 Northwestern 5.5 6.3 6  
63 Illinois -0.8 61 Illinois 3.7 4.5 2  
64 Temple -0.9 49 Temple 6.9 7.8 15  
65 Western Michigan -1.5 53 Western Michigan 5.9 7.4 12  
66 Washington State -1.5 63 Washington State 2.9 4.4 3  
67 Georgia Southern -1.6 39 Georgia Southern 8.4 10 28  
68 Memphis -1.8 55 Memphis 5.8 7.6 13  
69 Toledo -2.1 21 Toledo 12.9 15 48  
70 Oregon State -2.1 102 Oregon State -11.4 -9.3 -32  
71 Arkansas State -2.3 79 Arkansas State -1 1.3 -8  
72 Colorado State -2.9 81 Colorado State -2.1 0.8 -9  
73 Syracuse -2.9 71 Syracuse 0.2 3.1 2  
74 Purdue -3.2 86 Purdue -3.9 -0.7 -12  
75 Colorado -3.3 98 Colorado -8.5 -5.2 -23  
76 Air Force -3.3 52 Air Force 5.9 9.2 24  
77 San Diego State -3.5 45 San Diego State 7.3 10.8 32  
78 Northern Illinois -3.5 69 Northern Illinois 0.8 4.3 9  
79 Rutgers -3.6 105 Rutgers -12.4 -8.8 -26  
80 East Carolina -3.6 76 East Carolina -0.7 2.9 4  
81 Indiana -4.3 60 Indiana 3.9 8.2 21  
82 Nevada -4.5 99 Nevada -8.8 -4.3 -17  
83 Vanderbilt -5.3 83 Vanderbilt -2.3 3 0  
84 UL-Lafayette -5.9 107 UL-Lafayette -13 -7.1 -23  
85 Houston -6.1 44 Houston 7.6 13.7 41  
86 Iowa State -6.3 70 Iowa State 0.5 6.8 16  
87 Middle Tennessee -7 82 Middle Tennessee -2.2 4.8 5  
88 Rice -7.4 119 Rice -17.9 -10.5 -31  
89 Wake Forest -8.4 92 Wake Forest -4.9 3.5 -3  
90 South Florida -8.8 50 South Florida 6.5 15.3 40  
91 Central Michigan -9.1 78 Central Michigan -0.9 8.2 13  
92 Tulane -9.2 120 Tulane -18.2 -9 -28  
93 Fresno State -9.4 100 Fresno State -9.8 -0.4 -7  
94 Bowling Green -10 19 Bowling Green 14.2 24.2 75  
95 Kansas -10.1 127 Kansas -22.5 -12.4 -32  
96 Ohio -10.1 66 Ohio 1.6 11.7 30  
97 Kent State -10.2 115 Kent State -15.2 -5 -18  
98 South Alabama -10.5 103 South Alabama -11.4 -0.9 -5  
99 UTEP -10.5 126 UTEP -22.4 -11.9 -27  
100 Ball State -10.6 111 Ball State -14.2 -3.6 -11  
101 Florida Atlantic -10.8 93 Florida Atlantic -6.1 4.7 8  
102 UL-Monroe -11 122 UL-Monroe -20 -9 -20  
103 Appalachian State -11 43 Appalachian State 7.7 18.7 60  
104 New Mexico -11.1 101 New Mexico -10.6 0.5 3  
105 San Jose State -11.2 89 San Jose State -4.4 6.8 16  
106 Tulsa -11.3 94 Tulsa -6.8 4.5 12  
107 Florida International -11.8 108 Florida International -13.3 -1.5 -1  
108 Southern Miss -12.1 58 Southern Miss 5 17.1 50  
109 Texas State -12.2 112 Texas State -14.3 -2.1 -3  
110 Old Dominion -12.2 110 Old Dominion -13.8 -1.6 0  
111 Georgia State -13.4 91 Georgia State -4.7 8.7 20  
112 Akron -13.6 80 Akron -1.7 11.9 32  
113 Miami (Ohio) -13.8 117 Miami-OH -15.9 -2.1 -4  
114 Connecticut -13.9 87 Connecticut -3.9 10 27  
115 Wyoming -14.3 114 Wyoming -14.6 -0.3 1  
116 Idaho -15.2 109 Idaho -13.5 1.7 7  
117 SMU -15.5 104 SMU -12 3.5 13  
118 Hawaii -15.7 118 Hawaii -16.1 -0.4 0  
119 Massachusetts -15.9 97 Massachusetts -8.1 7.8 22  
120 Charlotte -16.2 124 Charlotte -21.7 -5.5 -4  
121 UTSA -16.2 113 UTSA -14.4 1.8 8  
122 Buffalo -16.3 96 Buffalo -7.2 9.1 26  
123 UNLV -16.4 106 UNLV -12.6 3.8 17  
124 Troy -17.6 90 Troy -4.5 13.1 34  
125 North Texas -17.9 128 North Texas -23 -5.1 -3  
126 Army -18.3 123 Army -20.9 -2.6 3  
127 New Mexico State -19.7 116 New Mexico State -15.7 4 11  
128 Eastern Michigan -21.5 121 Eastern Michigan -18.3 3.2 7  
            1.4 0.0 AVERAGE
            1.9 1.0 MEDIAN
            7.8 24.2 STD. DEV.
            24.2 75.0 MAX
            -22.1 -65.0 MIN

 

Joined: 10/02/2015

MGoPoints: 8383

NittanyFan

February 8th, 2016 at 4:10 PM ^

Connelly's predictions had them 3, 4, 5 ....... the pre-season AP poll had them 9, 6, 7.

I guess the pre-season AP is slightly better, but big picture BOTH predictions missed big-time.

Meanwhile, Connelly had Baylor & TCU & Oklahoma at 14, 18 and 10 ..... the pre-season AP poll had them at 4, 2 and 19.  That's definitely advantagee Connelly.

I don't have the time to do a systmeatic comparison, but I do think the superior way to "validate" Connelly's pre-season predictions is how they did vis-a-vis the "standard prediction" (the pre-season AP poll is a pretty-good proxy for that), as opposed to looking at absolute misses.  Everyone had their misses, but I'd bet Connelly had more "hits" than the pre-season AP polls did.

 

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 44012

gremlin3

February 8th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

Likely so. S&P may very well be a more accurate predictive tool than human polls.

I think the better way to look at it, however, is that S&P isn't quite as horrendous as humans at predicting outcomes, especially those with a lot of variables and randomness.

The point of the OP seems to be to trust S&P predictions b/c they're more accurate, being all stats-y and whatnot. It just ain't true.

Joined: 10/02/2015

MGoPoints: 8383

NittanyFan

February 8th, 2016 at 5:32 PM ^

My intuition tells me that Connelly's model does have usefulness, it beats the general consensus.  But admittedly, outside the few anecdotes I provided, I have no numbers to prove it.

What would be interesting: a model that takes the general consensus Top 20 teams and puts a percentage on the question: "is this team likely to be a bust in 2016?"  

Auburn, Georgia, UCLA, Oregon in 2015 --- there are ALWAYS Top 20 busts.  It's just hard to figure out who they will be.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 44012

alum96

February 8th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^

Just put up a diary on offensive and defensive production returning that Bill posted last week - gives some foreshadowing on why he has teams ranked in specific spots.  i.e. LSU returns almost everything, OSU loses the most in the nation.  Worth a read if you like data and stats.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82804

SamirCM

February 8th, 2016 at 10:04 PM ^

We are rated ahead of MSU and OSU. What i would like more is finishing the season ahead of them, everyone in the Big Ten and ....... I risk pressing my luck, EVERYONE ELSE! 

Joined: 04/08/2011

MGoPoints: 618