CorkyCole

June 17th, 2015 at 5:52 PM ^

Trio of Floridians from the same school, two of which were committed to other schools, took the trip to Ann Arbor together. All three at the end of the visit had offers, and the two that were committed two other schools (Metellus being one of them) decommitted the other day from said schools.

Therefore, two more to go.

LSAClassOf2000

June 17th, 2015 at 5:58 PM ^

That was fast after being told to remain buckled. Welcome to Michigan, Josh Metellus.

Is it starting to seem that the 2016 recruiting cycle is becoming "The Year Of Harbaugh" when it comes to the speed at turning this into a Top 10 class (at least to date), or is it just me? I am impressed, particularly with how the last three weeks or so have unfolded for this class. 

Coldwater

June 17th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^

Michigan didn't have to exactly beat out any football superpowers for his services.....FIU, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee

#2starmafia

uminks

June 17th, 2015 at 6:24 PM ^

You will enjoy your time at Michigan. All the best on the field and in the classroom!

I think Harbaugh will show starz do not matter. Much like the NFL!

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 6:40 PM ^

Percentage-wise the higher the rating the more likely a kid will end up being drafted. It isn't perfect and there are plenty of lower ranked guys who make it. 

Another fact that indicates stars matter: OSU, Alabama, FSU, and Auburn. Last four champions have rosters stocked with four star talent. You can't tell me that star rankings do not matter much when the best teams are filled with kids who carried 4/5 ratings.

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 6:35 PM ^

This is the oddest class and recruiting strategy I have seen from a Michigan staff. UM traditional gets 7-10 four stars with 8-10 3 stars and very rarely a two star(normally a kicker). It's generally an even split. Here we have more 2-3 stars than four stars. That's a bit concerning considering the talent OSU is stockpiling. 

Obvious caveats apply. Harbaugh and his staff have an established reputation for talent evaluation so if these kids are getting offers they surely must see Michigan-level potential in them.You can't dismiss the fact that the staff likes the kids enough to offer them. 

Still, it's a bit unnerving seeing Michigan offering such unheralded recruits halfway through a recruiting season. As even this site has noted the higher the rating the more likely they are to become quality players.

 

Magnus

June 17th, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^

Again, you're talking about those previous years in regard to their FINAL star rating. The 2016 class is not finalized, and neither are the rankings.

Some of these guys will be 3- or 4-stars by the end of the cycle. And if you're having this same conversation with someone in June of 2023, you'll be saying, "Well, in 2016 we got X amount of 5-stars and X amount of 4-stars and X amount of 3-stars." Because by 2023, you'll forget these May/June rankings, just like you've forgotten all the unranked or 2-star kids we've offered in the past, only to see them get bumped up.

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 6:50 PM ^

Their rankings are not going to change all that much. A couple maybe, but most will remain at the same ranking as before. I think many of these kids are average recruits that Harbaugh plans on using as a way of pushing the more talented players. They're effort guys. We all know that 85 scholarships can't be filled by superstars and stars. You need scrappers, you need guys willing to max out their effort and potential.

It's becoming obvious to me that this class is about establishing a culture. A culture of extreme effort and determination. I don't think future classes will be assembled like this one. Harbaugh isn't stupid. You need talent to win. But you also need an edge. That's what these kids possess(and what UM has lacked for better part of a decade).

 

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 7:37 PM ^

But the "under the radar" types are getting a bit numerous. Not every "under the radar" guy is a elite talent in hiding. Most are not. You also cannot assume that every decision this staff will make will hit.

I'm by nature a skeptic and I question acts and decisons that don't quite seem right to me.  That doesn't mean I'm saying that this method is in error. It just doesn't align with what I seen from UM in the past and from the elite schools of today.

Paly33

June 17th, 2015 at 8:46 PM ^

Keep in mind as well that some of these lower rated prospects could be slated for grayshirt offers. Webb had a thread about this on the Scout board a couple days ago.

It looks like this is going to be an approach that this staff is going to take advantage of. This will be something that we are not used to and I'm all for it!

Gentleman Squirrels

June 17th, 2015 at 7:15 PM ^

A lot of the 2 stars we have recruited are under the radar type guys who just haven't been evaluated by the recruiting services yet. Once they do, they will likely get the 3-star bump. Then, if you look at the class as a whole, the balance between 3, 4 and 5 stars makes perfect sense. 

I do agree that this class has a lot of flyers and its more about establishing a culture/ connections with coaches. Even though this is technically Harbaugh's official first recruiting class, he's well behind other programs in terms of how long they've been in contact with the kids. We will likely see someting different in 2017. 

Also, remember that Michigan is coming off some of its worst years in college football. Most of the kids being recruited don't remember any of Michigan's glory days or are not familiar with their history. It's not like how it was Meyer - he came in an ideal situation at OSU and didn't miss a beat. For us, its more like rebuilding an entire program a la MSU. They're finally seeing the payoffs in their recruiting this year. I don't see it taking that long for us to see a payoff, but yes it will take time before all our class is comparable to Alabama/OSU. 

Magnus

June 17th, 2015 at 7:30 PM ^

"This is the summer before their senior year. Their rankings are not going to change all that much."

This is probably false. No, Erik Swenson and Michael Onwenu probably aren't going to shoot up to #1 in the country. Neither will Josh Metellus. But Dytarious Johnson, Rashad Weaver, Josh Metellus, etc. will very likely end up as consensus 3-star prospects, if not higher, simply because they are committed to Michigan. That is the way it always has been and probably will be forevermore. 

So yeah, I'd say going from 0-stars or 2-stars to 3-stars across the board is a pretty significant change.

Albatross

June 18th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^

And look at who is actually recruiting these players, which is always a better indicaiton of the quality of player we are talking about.

You can take a 3 star player and look at his offer list and it is swimming in Power 5 offers, with names like Alabama, USC, FSU and OSU. Well that indicates he is probably a 4-star caliber player. It works the same way with 4 stars, some have a ton of high level offers and some have mostly MAC level offers.

For our lower ranked guys, we aren't beating out the who's who of college programs, we are really offering guys that have no other option if they want to play at a big time program.

Also, you have to consider that college coaches have been evaluating and recruiting players in the 2016 class for at least three years. The fact that these coaches haven't extended offers to these players is telling.

Harbaugh has been evaluting these players for six months. And as great as we believe he is, to accept that Harbaugh understands the high school recruting landscape and has better evaluated these players in six months or a one-day camp, then the Sabans, Myers, Fishers of the world have for three years takes a huge leap of faith. Especially since a lot of these players were in the backyards of these programs.

Magnus

June 18th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^

"So then forget the rankings. And look at who is actually recruiting these players, which is always a better indicaiton of the quality of player we are talking about."

Do you have any evidence to back that up? How do you know that a 3-star offered by Alabama is a better prospect than a 3-star offered by Michigan only? Quite often, recruiting rankings coincide with offer lists. If a kid has offers from Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, USC, etc., there's a good chance he'll be a 4-star.

To counter your argument, who are the best Michigan players in recent years? I think we would probably agree that Jake Ryan, Taylor Lewan, Devin Funchess, Jordan Kovacs, Mike Martin, and Denard Robinson are up there.

Jake Ryan's only other offers were from the MAC.

Lewan's offer list included Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Wisconsin, which are good programs but not the elite ones you listed.

Devin Funchess had offers from Michigan State and Nebraska.

Kovacs was a walk-on, obviously.

Mike Martin had Notre Dame and Penn State offers.

Denard Robinson had Auburn, Florida, Georgia, and Ohio State offers, but most places wanted him as a defensive back. He set records at QB and made it to the NFL as a RB.

I'm not saying rankings are the only thing to pay attention to. But the offer list thing doesn't really match up, either, at least not for Michigan players in recent years.

Albatross

June 18th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^

Let me first say, that I do enjoy your posts, you are one of the more level headed,  knowlegable and rational people on here.

So let me respond. I wasn't implying that a 3 star with an Alabama offer is better than a 3-star only recruited by Michigan. That was a stretch to interpret that. I said there are 3-stars that are "swimming in Power 5 offers", which would indicate more multiple Power 5 and more than one elite program agrees to their potential. If you see an offer list of Alabama, Costal Carolina, Middle Tennesse State and Bucknel, then it is easy to see which offer is out of place.

You said that rankings correspond with offer lists. As they should, cause in the end that is the best indication of talent, and when you have prospects that only have offers from low level programs after multiple years of evaluation that should tell you something.

And you ask about proof. We can cherry pick any single x-star vs another x-star to support any conclusion that we want. But there is one fact that is undeniable and that is every national champion has been made up of 4-5 star highly ranked players and not diamonds in the rough that no one esle knew about. And if the end game is a National Championship that is the only stat that matters.

If you don't feel that the end game is a National Champsionship, then I really see no reason in having any discussion about recruiting, cause we do not agree on the ulimate goal. There is absolutely nothing wrong with recruiting more than your share of  low end recruits if the goal is to settle in comfortablly behind OSU in the Big Ten pecking order, and to challenge for a Big Ten title once every 4-6 years.

Also let me add, i really see no point in bringing up recent Michigan recruits in this seven-year era of futility. Where we were in those seven year is someplace we do not want to go  back to. A better comparison is what were the National Champsionship caliber teams doing in this time. There formula is not hard to see, load up with highly ranked classes and go collect your hardware at the of the season. When it comes to National Champsionships and building the top program in the country it is the ONLY formula that has worked.

pescadero

June 18th, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^

To counter your argument, who are the best Michigan players in recent years? I think we would probably agree that Jake Ryan, Taylor Lewan, Devin Funchess, Jordan Kovacs, Mike Martin, and Denard Robinson are up there.

 

Sure. They were the best we had.

 

How many national championships did they win? Oh... none?

How many conference championships did they win? Oh... none?

How many times did they beat Ohio State? Once in five years.

How was their record over their careers? Oh... one of the worst periods in Michigan football history.

 

 

Albatross

June 18th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^

Where we get in trouble is when we start comparing Michigan under Harbaugh to teams that that have failed or come up short of expectations. We should be comparing ourselves to  the elite programs, how are the NC winners doing it. It is really not hard to see. It really isn't.

In reply to by Franz Schubert

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^

You're a long dead Austrian composer.

Seriously, you can't call any opinion dumb because you are no talent evaluator yourself. How the hell would you know that there are good or not? You haven't the crediblity to attack my opinion.

alum96

June 17th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^

Check diary section for a good article on 2007 2008 Harbaugh classes.  He did more with "junk classes" than Hoke did with "premium classes" - and we are not talking Luck but just his ability to get guys developed and into the NFL.  By "he" I mean his whole staff...sometimes HC gets way too much credit for great work the position coaches do.

Obviously OSU is recruiting like gangbusters too.

As has been said multiple times this is going to be a very bell curve-y classes.  Wheras UM usually recruits on the left and and middle now its all over the bell curve so those guys on the right side will lead to consternation. 

It will be interesting to see how they all develop in 3-5 years.  I think once you get past player 200 or so it's all sort of a crapshoot anyhow.

The real question to me is what he does in 2017.  By then he will have the relationships established so will he be focused all on high 3s/4s/5s or will be still do 2016 stuff and stuff a few 2/low 3s into his 2017 class.  If so, UM fans just need to get used to a few "Beilein sleepers" in every class go forward.

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 6:57 PM ^

I understand and appreciate the need for sleepers. But normally those sleepers are three stars. Two stars are historically rare(excepting kickers) at Michigan. The last one I can remember is Andre Criswell who did a whole lot of nothing. 

This class has four  2 stars. I can't remember four 2 star recruits TOTAL(again, excepting kickers and punters) over the past decade.

Franz Schubert

June 17th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^

But Harbaugh and this incredible staff are accepting commitments from players they like. These kids are just as talented as the higher rated recruits but the recruiting nerds have not rated them as highly. This stuff is completely subjective and the staff knows more than any recruiting site. Come signing day I'm sure the recruiting nerds will have come around to what the staff already knows.

SalvatoreQuattro

June 17th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^

Man, it must be real hard to see that the high rankings at this point are based solely on number of recruits and not the quality. It's not like they have ratings for each player that you can easily check yourself.

 They could turn into Darqueze Dennard or they could be Andre Criswell. Statistically-speaking, the latter is more likely than the former.