Preview: Rutgers
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
Michigan (14-15, 7-10 B1G) vs. Rutgers (10-20, 2-15) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
WHEN | 2:15 pm ET, Saturday |
LINE | Michigan -10 (KenPom) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Joe Davis Analyst: Shon Morris |
Right: Goodnight, sweet calves. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE US
Crisler will host Senior Day festivities for Max Bielfeldt tomorrow before tipoff, which should end any speculation Michigan will bring him back for a fifth year in 2015-16. Bielfeldt became an unexpectedly critical contributor this season after there years spent mostly on the bench. His calves have been, remain, and presumably always will be magnificent.
UPDATE: As it turns out, Bielfeldt will start tomorrow:
Beilein says Max Bielfeldt will start tomorrow for Senior Day. Ricky Doyle has not practiced b/c of an intestinal problem.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 6, 2015
As for Derrick Walton, there's less and less optimism he'll make it back onto the court this season:
"We're running out of time," U-M coach John Beilein said Wednesday night on his weekly radio show. "We're guaranteed at least two more games, but he has not been able to do anything close to going at full speed. When he pushes off in certain ways, it bothers him. His (practices) with us are usually very short -- 10 or 15 minutes."
To sum it up, Walton is still not pain-free.
Until he is, he won't play.
Today, Beilein confirmed Walton is out for Rutgers and said he's "doubtful" for the Big Ten Tournament. I don't see much reason to push it at this point.
THE LAST TIME
In the first game after Caris LeVert went down for the year with a broken foot, an illness-ravaged Michigan squad edged past Rutgers, 54-50. The then-novelty of seeing freshmen and walk-ons stepping into bigger roles helped make up for the game's lack of aesthetic appeal.
THE STAKES
A loss to Rutgers probably dooms Michigan's NIT hopes unless they make a solid run in the Big Ten Tournament. There are also potential BTT seeding ramifications: Michigan should be the #9 seed (facing off against either Illinois or Indiana) unless they lose to Rutgers, Northwestern beats Iowa, and Wisconsin beats Ohio State—then M would be the #10 seed.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
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G | 4 | Myles Mack | Sr. | 5'10, 175 | 88 | 23 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Scoring and assist leader is RU's only player with ORtg above 100. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Bishop Daniels | Jr. | 6'3, 185 | 66 | 23 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
Not very efficient but draws a lot of fouls. Very turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 10 | Junior Etou | So. | 6'7, 230 | 70 | 14 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
Team's best defensive rebounder. Not a good shooter. Draws lots of fouls. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 11 | Kadeem Jack | Sr. | 6'9, 235 | 77 | 27 | Yes | ||||||||||||
43% on twos and 31% on threes, so naturally takes a crapton of shots. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 35 | Greg Lewis | Jr. | 6'9, 245 | 58 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
Okay rim protector, mediocre rebounder and finisher. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 6 | Mike Williams | Fr. | 6'2, 190 | 38 | 19 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Spot-up shooter who can't knock down shots (22% 3P). | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 22 | DJ Foreman | Fr. | 6'8, 230 | 37 | 20 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Poor finisher, decent rebounder, especially on offense. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 40 | Shaquille Doorson | Fr. | 6'11, 275 | 25 | 11 | Very | ||||||||||||
Low usage, solid off. rebounder and shot-blocker, TO- and foul-prone. |
THE RESUME
Rutgers has lost 13 in a row, which dates back to two games before their first matchup against Michigan. This is likely the last time their résumé will be discussed in any capacity.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The Rutgers rotation hasn't changed since the first preview. Point guard Myles Mack remains the player to watch. He's the only Rutgers player with an offensive rating above 100, which is somewhat astounding. Here's his shot chart in Big Ten play, via Shot Analytics:
While he doesn't exactly light it up from every spot on the floor, he finishes at the rim and has a sweet spot beyond the arc. For comparison, here's the shot chart for every other Rutgers player in conference play:
This is a bad shot chart. Mack is the team's only outside shooting threat—he's the lone Scarlet Knight to hit more than 11 triples in Big Ten play—and the rest of the squad, especially high-usage forward Kadeem Jack, is all too willing to settle for low-percentage midrange shots.
THE TEMPO-FREE
We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only. As you might expect, that change isn't so kind to Michigan's offense.
As you probably expected given the shot charts, Rutgers' offense is laughably bad—worst in the conference by over four points per 100 possessions. They're the worst shooting team in the Big Ten, which is actually understating matters, as they're 340th out of 351 D-I basketball programs. They're dead last in turnover rate, and their ball movement is poor, too—11th in assists/FGM. This is a really atrocious offense.
The defense is much better by comparison, a lofty 12th in the conference in efficiency. They have an especially tough time defending inside the arc and don't do any one thing particularly well.
Thanks, Delany.
THE KEYS
Guard the good one. Michigan has exactly one player they need to keep track of at all times, especially beyond the arc, and that is Myles Mack. I wouldn't be surprised to see MAAR get that assignment wire-to-wire unless John Beilein decides the zone will be more effective, which it very well might against a team that can't shoot a lick. Either way, expect Michigan to pay a lot of attention to Mack and sag off everyone else.
Keep attacking. Count me among those who want to see Zak Irvin play every game like he did against Northwestern on Tuesday. If he can find a way to finish a few more of those drives at the rim instead of pulling up around the free-throw line, all the better.
Win The Game. Let's not be the team that gives Rutgers their first win in 14 tries on Senior Day, of all days. Have I mentioned they're bad? Because they're bad.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 10.
Have I mentioned Rutgers is... oh, yes I have. Just making sure.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. According to ZagsBlog, Michigan is taking a look at Seton Hall sophomore Jaren Sina, a former top-100 recruit who will transfer after the season. He'd have to sit out a year, then would have two years of eligibility remaining.
Why would Michigan not bring back Bielfeldt if they can?
I would give Max a fifth year. He is way better than Doyle and Donnal on the offensive end.
Definitely wouldn't say he's "way better" than Doyle on the offensive end. They're probably even in that respect, except when Max starts raining threes as he's known to do from time to time. Donnal though, yes.
We're so thin on the front line regardless that we should give him a 5th year, if he wants it. Maybe he doesn't want it?
has hit some. Period.
Tell that to Bucknell.
Over under on how many timeouts we burn trying to inbound the ball? Line starts at 1.5
This team's collective immune system is definitely not in KenPom's Top 100.
Immune system really ? :) i have same thinking.
Ace reviewing bad teams is some of Ace's best stuff IMO.
Also I'm quite glad that he's never seen me play basketball. I think my descriptor would either be "His offensive game was compared to Carlos Boozer's. This was meant as a compliment". Or "Has an 'old-man-post-game' reminiscent of Paul Pierce, but is 5'11" and 27 years old".
...today will be a legs day.
I'll miss Max, but next year should be great anyway. Go blue!
I agree. I think we come out firing and win a no doubter tomorrow. Also, there is plenty of motivation to beat Illinois. These guys know they should have won that game a few weeks back.
I wish I could muster the kind of optimism you and Michiganman14 have for this game. Yes, Rutgers is not very good at all and Michigan should be fired up, but I suspect Rutgers will be fired up as well. I still think Michigan will win, and I hope they put together a complete game and rout the Scarlet Knights, but I haven't seen anything from Michigan lately to lead me to expect that outcome.
Its just a sense I have about the game. I perfectly understand your position.
Rutgers has lost 13 consecutive games. I think they're playing out the string at this point.
...but I feel this is the kind of game we get lax about & end up blowing.
Plus remember both Doyle (likely) and Walton out.
As long as we remember they *did* beat Wisconsin -- they have it in them -- we *might* come out okay.
Go Blue!
How the eff did Rutgers beat Wisconsin earlier this year?
That's all.
if Bielfeldt is choosing to leave or if Michigan is choosing not to bring him back? I just don't see a reason for Bielfeldt not to come back
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