8-4, losses @ Utah, BYU, MSU, OSU is my reasonable prediction.

Opening on the road is difficult, BYU has Taysom Hill returning, and I don't think one year with Harbaugh will be enough to take down MSU and OSU.

8-4 or 9-3 with one surprising win over either MSU or OSU.  It's important to remember that we'll face three very good coaches in our non-conference schedule (Mendenhall, Whittingham, Anderson) and two current top-five teams returning most of their players (OSU and MSU) so anything better than 9-3 is really a stretch.  

I expect Shane Morris to be much-improved and steady under Harbaugh's leadership.  But I don't expect him to turn into Tom Brady overnight.  

I see five games that we should absolutely win (Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, Maryland, UNLV)--but I also think it is very possible that we lose one of those in surprising fashion.  So I'm expecting 4-5 wins there. 

I see 3 games that we should lose based on this past year's success and returning personell (MSU, OSU, and Utah @ Utah).  I think we'll win 1 or 2 of those games.  

I see four games that could go either way (Penn St, Northwestern, Oregon St., BYU) and I'm thinking we go 2-2 or 3-1 in those games.  

That logic gives us a low bar of 7-5 and a high bar of 10-2.  I'm splitting the difference and saying 8-4 or 9-3.  

Ok, with the gun of realism to my head, I'm saying 8-4.

Unless I see something that drastically changes my opinion about QB, I think 8-4/9-3 is likely the ceiling here.

Utah on the road has the potential to be tough and if Taysom Hill is back to full powers BYU will be difficult.  Add in MSU/OSU and a trip to Penn. St.  and there are a lot of potential tripping points.

In Harbaugh we trust and all that, but QB is a major worry and I just don;t see that getting much better next year.

we can win any of those games. Therefore, UM goes 12-0, into the playoffs we GOBLUE!

16-0 in a 15 game schedule, and we'll be so dominant that they'll award us two national championships instead of just the one we actually earn.  

Either that, or we'll go 8-4 or 9-3 based on schedule and QB uncertainty.  One of those two things will probably happen.

Based on Space Coyote's write up on Harbaugh's offensive tendencies the new offense seems likely to be sufficiently different from Nussmeier's that things are pretty much starting from scratch yet again. It's unrealistic to expect the offense to have internalized the new offense so that they can play at game speed in game 1.

Mattison's staying hopefully will help the defense adjust to the changes more quickly than otherwise. At this point none of us really know the learning curve that they will have to climb but we can hope that it's a variation on what they've been learning and not totally new. If so we can reasonably expect the defense to be solid from game 1 and maybe even take the step to exceptional at some point in the season. 

I'm not worried about the QB as much as I am about how quickly the offensive line can execute the new blocking schemes at game speed. If that takes more than a couple of games the QB is going to get damaged again. Maybe Harbaugh will run some sort of hybrid between what he really wants and what Nussmeier did last year. Maybe he'll just bite the bullet and take some early losses while the offense comes up to speed.

Probably drop at least 2 OOC games and at least 2 in conference. Based on where they fall in the schedule and assuming everyone is healthy I'd say that we are more likely to beat OSU than MSU and that we have a solid shot at OSU. I have every confidence that by game twelve both the offense and defense will have fully internalized the new system(s) and be at peak. Harbaugh will be ready for Meyer, I'm not so sure that Meyer will be ready for Harbaugh.

So my "prediction" is 8-4 and a bowl win with a 5-7 floor if the learning curve is to great and an 11-1 ceiling if everything breaks the right way and lighting strikes. If they start conference play 4-0 (maybe a 5% chance IMHO) then anything is possible including making the playoffs. 

I think seven or eight wins.

He's got a year of figuring out who really wants to buy in and do it.

There WILL be a couple players we're relying on that may not buy in entirely. There always are with a coach like this.

That said, Its not out of the realm of possibility we could see nine wins if everything goes well.

Also, I guarantee we will beat either Sparty or OSU this year. There is NO WAY he allows us to lose both rivalry games.  Just won't happen.

Losses vs OSU and MSU

Another 2-3 losses vs Utah, BYU, Minny, Penn State, or Northwestern.

8-4 or 7-5 with 9-3 being a great year and 6-6 being below expectations.

8-4 and then we'll see about the bowl game.  Going to Utah AND playing BYU and Oregon St. to start the year is about as tough an OOC schedule you could have in college football, then the usual gauntlet.  Sure, OSU and MSU are coming to A2, but that just means you have two titans who can beat you in front of your fans.  And they have to go to PSU and play Minny at home, which aren't easy.  

My bold prediction - UM upsets MSU.  OSU will be a close game, but apparently OSU could be playing a walk-on from the golf team and still score a billion points.

Harbaugh won't just come in, wave a wand, and every player will live up to their potential and reach their ceiling. These things take time.

This team has a pretty high ceiling, but I see a lot of people seriously predicting that ceiling. I think it would benefit this program and Harbaugh to have high expectations (this is Michigan) but be realistic to how much work there is to do.

A realistic floor for Michigan is still around .500. A realistic floor for this team, which will have growing pains, particularly at QB, but all over, is not 9-3.

I do find it funny that a lot of people are predicting wins over MSU now because "Harbaugh". Some going as far as saying "now that we don't have terrible coaching that should be a win". Lots of fans repeating the misnomer that everything MSU related is merely a fluke. No, MSU is still a good team. They'll still likely be a top 10-15 team. Playing them at home helps, but that'll be a tough game to come away with a win. But people talk about their losses at DB (completely ignoring that they return a lot of their very efficient offense, particularly on the OL; as well as much of their defensive front). Look at match-ups. Michigan isn't built right now to take full advantage of MSU's weaknesses, they play into their hands. It's not a good match-up for Michigan. If anything, Michigan-MSU is a toss-up because it's being played in Ann Arbor.

And yet lots of people are calling for a PSU loss. Just so everyone is on the same page, PSU loses Belton and Zwinak, so they don't have great RB depth. They lose their best OL off a terrible OL in Smith, they'll max out at 2014 Michigan OL (with a QB that has PTSD as bas as DG). They lose their top TE. They lose their top two DEs and their MIKE (the best LB in the B1G). And they lose their starting safeties. This team is gutted. They return a couple good looking WRs, a great set of starting DTs, a nice young OLB in Wartman, and Lucas who is good. PSU is still rebuilding from sanctions. But a predicted loss to them is alright because they aren't "little brother" or something.

I have us at 9-3, with one rival win.  Expecting a loss to Utah, a loss to either MSU or OSU, and a random other loss along the way (BYU? PSU?).  

That said, this has the looks of a high variance year, based on unknown QB performance.  I could see this team come out and go like, 11-1 (splitting with OSU and MSU), or I could see us top out at lik 6 or 7 wins if the QB situation is really as dire as it could be.  

We need a QB and a passing game.  This is a team that hasn't been able to find someone to make a play in crunch time for the past 2 years.  They need to learn how to win.  The need to develop mental toughness and a killer instinct.  It all depends on how quickly they learn.  The coaching staff will certainly provide the motivation.  We'll see how fast they put it all together on the field.  

but we do get either MSU or OSU

I know I have homer glasses on but damn I just don't see the downside to the schedule here, aside from the first game.

Harbaugh is inheriting a team that hung with the NC team for the first half in the last game they played this year. The same team with less experience almost beat that nearly same team the previous year at home. This team has solid legit talent when it plays to its level and rises to the moment. All it needs is a QB. I am 99.9% confident that Harbaugh will be able to get a solid #1 and #2 from his current QB core and coach them up to be ready for the first game at Utah.

That first game is the game that worries me the most on the schedule. One thing in our favor is that other teams are going to have that feeling when they play us again that this is Michigan. Teams didn't respect what was on the field for several years and it showed, I believe that is gone now with Harbaugh in charge. Our team is going to be hungry to win the first game for Jim and you know he is going to have them fired up on all cyclinders.

I see a tight win, but there is a chance we lose it late or in overtime, still though I'm over 50% on the win at Utah. Then there's 3 games at home which won't be easy, but won't be harder than Utah on the road. 4-0.

At Maryland, I see the same team mentality for winning Jim his first B1G game and they have 4 games experience under his system as well as a road game at that point, 5-0.

He's not going to let them look past the Wildcats at home to sparty next week. 6-0.

Sparty at home. We have probably seen 75-80% of the playbook at this point, we see 10% more of it here and win a tight one. 7-0.

Bye week before the Little Brown Jug on the road, no letdown here, still rolling on the sparty tears high. 8-0

Rutgers at home, Indiana on the road, the nits on the road. The offense is rolling by now, the defense is locked in, I don't see an upset there. Destroy penn state please. Thanks. 11-0.

ohio at home. urbz is outcoached. Jim has been waiting for this game all year and shows most of the rest of his playbook and ohio sees what the new era is all about. The players play the whole game complete from start to finish and comparisons continue to be made to the 97 team. Peppers has 2 picks. 37-24. 12-0.

B1G Championship game - win. we beat the defending NC at this point.

Playoffs. Ditto. Riding high, Harbaugh gets his first championship gatorade/water shower with 1:12 left on the clock in the final game.

Look what Harbaugh did at Stanford with USC. That was a team that didn't have near the talent base that he has now and it's at the place he loves in his heart and will have passion and intensity unknown to mankind.

Who's got it better than us??