How To Never Be Wrong
Heads up, Rap.
Last night got a little wild when a bunch of NFL reporters "reported" or "confirmed" Michigan's 6-year, $48 million offer to Jim Harbaugh. This prompted something of an about-face from a group that had poo-pooed the notion an established, successful coach working for The Shield would deign to consider a college job.
That doesn't mean these reporters were wrong, though! Work the narrative hard enough and such a thing is impossible. Here's the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, circa December 7th:
The University of Michigan has reached out to #49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, sources say. U-M left convinced he wanted to be an @NFL coach
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 7, 2014
So he's wrong, right? Think again. The situation simply changed drastically once Michigan realized a key factor in contact negotiations is, um, offering a contract:
Sources: #Michigan has made another run at Jim Harbaugh after he initially rebuffed the school. U-M has made an offer of 6 years, $48M. Wow.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 17, 2014
Jim Hackett was "rebuffed," you see, and just spent the last two weeks begging for spare change and allowing other viable coaching candidates to land elsewhere in the hopes that Harbaugh would completely change his mind. Yeah. That's it.
Rapoport was far from the only NFL guy to make this mistake. CBS Sports's Jason La Canfora, December 7th:
While many are connecting Harbaugh to the opening at Michigan, where he was a star quarterback, sources close to the coach maintain he is not interested. Harbaugh's family has close ties to outgoing Michigan coach Brady Hoke and Harbaugh is much more interested in NFL possibilities.
Yesterday, La Canfora somewhat acknowledged Michigan's offer, only to suggest that the Raiders would easily beat it because the Raiders did what now?
Little doubt Mark Davis could beat any Michigan offer to Harbaugh. I heard he had double this out there for Gruden, who walked. Stay tuned
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) December 18, 2014
Quite a convenient time to report this, considering Jon Gruden signed a lengthy extension with ESPN three days ago.
ESPN's Adam Schefter at least acknowledged the remote possibility that Harbaugh would consider Michigan, though he didn't "see that happening," and his explanation for why Harbaugh is now considering M is laughable:
Asked why he was considering it now, but hadn’t been previously, one person said now that the 49ers are out of the playoffs, it was possible for Harbaugh to at least consider it.
That's quite an interesting interpretation of Harbaugh saying he wasn't discussing any future job prospects while he still had a job with the 49ers. Yes, San Francisco getting officially eliminated from playoff contention meant Harbaugh almost certainly wouldn't be coaching on that particular side of the Bay Area next year, but it's rather hard to believe he woke up after losing to the Seahawks and realized at that moment he should probably start considering his future in private.
If only someone had reported that Michigan aimed the proverbial money cannon Harbaugh's way earlier. Someone like, say, Wolverine247's Steve Lorenz, on December 3rd ($):
I believe we were the first to report this, but we've been saying for a while that money was not going to be an issue for Michigan in this coaching search. This is almost certainly a combination of the highly profitable Michigan athletic department and donor/booster Stephen Ross, who will play a role in a potential Harbaugh hiring.
Around 9:30 this morning, I got a message from someone I consider a reputable source that echoed the 8 million/year number that has been bandied about.
The DSR's Jeff Moss reported similar that day, saying that Michigan had offered Harbaugh a financial package that would make him the highest-paid coach in the sport. The crew at Go Blue Wolverine has long maintained that money wouldn't be an issue in M's quest for Harbaugh ($). Same goes for Chris Balas at The Wolverine ($).
Unlike the NFL guys, the Michigan insiders have been open in acknowledging the nature of their sources and the fluidity of any coaching search, especially one that—in this case—is centered on a currently employed coach with a year left on his contract. They also had last night's suddenly groundbreaking info weeks ago. Funny how that works.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
Agreed. No way the Raiders would offer Gruden, who is almost a decade removed from his last successful season coaching in the NFL, more than twice the next highest paid coach. It defies logic, even for the logic defiers that are the Davis family.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:44 AM ^
That isn't all Schefter reported. He also reported -- in an actual story, not a tweet or a message board post, that a source close to the negotations said it was "not likely" Harbaugh would accept the offer. That's someone else's opinion, not his. Has any reporter written an actual story citing another source suggesting that Harbaugh was more likely to accept the offer than Schefter's source said?
People are wishcasting too much in this.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
These NFL guys got caught with their pants down, and are scrambling to spin the narrative back to their first view.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
I thought for sure Schefter would have some better sources than his NFL friends.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
It's been a long time since he's been in Ann Arbor, and I'm not sure he's ever reported on college sports. I'm not sure why it's shocking that he doesn't have real sources within Michigan.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
that UM people are more into ripping the NFL people than realizing that their insider's reports being confirmed is a good thing. Celebrating being "right" on a story that is far from over is also strange.
Me? I'll be over the moon happy if Harbaugh comes, not if the Michigan insiders were "right"
December 18th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
It's the smugness of the NFL reporters that drives people crazy. Everyone is happy Harbaugh got a good offer, but it is annoying to read NFL guys act like Michigan insiders/fans are foolish because this is news to them.
December 18th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^
The NFL guys aren't as good as the locally-focused UM guys at getting a story that has been heavily UM-sided right -- this shouldn't really be a surprise. The only problem here is the arrogance of some of these guys, which - whatever. As a card-carrying "The A is for Arrogant" UM Alumni, I'm not seeing this as the worst thing in the world.
Harbaugh could turn UM (us) down still, and all these smug national writers will be proven 'right'. Just seems way too early to crow about being right when this site was so wrong last time around. Neg away, but I don't see this sort of premature dismissiveness as being much better than the Kawakami's of the world.
Note, I say this despite being on the IT'S HAPPENING bandwagon and not being much of an NFL fan at all, primarily because of the terrible media coverage and hoopla surrounding the game.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
The NFL is the ultimate walled garden - expecting them to report anything novel or insider-y is foolish at this point.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
dead-on in its accountable reporting on this search, any stupid tweet or alleged report from NFL sources has to be challenged. Why?
Because Michigan is making all the moves, not the candidate. So, if your sourcing is based on who is closest to a coach who isn't talking or speaking to anyone on his staff that you can question about his decision-making, how can you actually have inside knowledge about his intentions?
Harbaugh doesn't talk to anyone outside his family about his career. So where would industry pundits be able to go to get their information about his future status? Well, they would go to the team and management, which is their beat. They would go to former NFL teammates who may have played with him at Michigan. But they don't know anything, because they only know peripheral details of second-hand stuff.
The only true sourcing that can be done on this story is at the Michigan end of it. But these NFL insiders are required to know to justify their jobs. So they got to offer something.
So, they speculate on what they hear and present it as informed conjecture in the context of news without attribution. It's all anonymous and 150 character reports with nothing new that once combined with background detail makes it sound official and informative, when its total bullshit wrapped in the veneer of possibility.
So, a meeting between ex-teammates backchanneling Harbaugh's interest while his agent is contacted by a search firm on contract talking points leads to a story that Harbaugh isn't interested in college coaching because he's got a team in a playoff hunt, and probably would rather stay in the NFL as a result. Michigan doing due dilligence gets translated as a rebuffed contract offer earlier this month.
That's how nothing gets reported as something. And because you are competing for something, anything that seems plausible is better than nothing. And because you never have to name sources, who is accountable for whatever you report?
December 18th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
is the Heaven and God that the NFL reporters worship, so it is not surprising that those reporters are not objective in their reporting. They will twist anything in favor of the NFL to the detriment of the NCAA.
U of M and Ann Arbor are very attractive destinations, especially if one is making more than $5 million a year. That would support a pretty nice life style here.
On the other hand, Oakland is a pretty ugly city and no one knows where that franchise might end up in the next several years......San Antonio........Los Angeles........somewhere else in the Bay area?
It's time to come home and enjoy a real nice ride at UM.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
Nonetheless, being Jimmy home!
December 18th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
reporters went to Michigan. And are therefore idiots.
December 18th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Which makes him an even BIGGER tool.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
so then he's not stupid, just an asshole and traitor. A national Drew Sharp.
I'd rather be thought of as an idiot.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
We seem to have our share of those among sports "journalists", don't we?
December 18th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
there do appear to be a lot of sports "journalists" that never got laid in Ann Arbor.
December 18th, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
Is my command
December 18th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
The title here is "How To Never Be Wrong" which led me to believe it was about my ex*. Then I read it, and ... yeah. The NFL "beat" kinda sucks at reporting.
*not ex-spouse - mercifully I've never been through that gut punch!
December 18th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
OK I don't know where to put this and we certainly don't need new threads:
Anybody else (while of course wanting to see U-M football successful and acknowledging Harbaugh would be an excellent choice as next coach) and little stunned and/or apprehensive about this $8 million figure? I mean, double what his predecessor had and quadruple what our recently NC winning coach had! More than any coach in a professional team gets! Quadruple what the President of the University gets!
The one thing that hack Rap got right is this: Wow
December 18th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
other than it becomes harder and harder to justify not compensating players when their coaches can't spend their money as fast as they make it.
Past that, football coaches get paid big bucks because there's big bucks to be made in sports. Supply and demand. If we don't pay Harbaugh $8MM, the demand for him dictates that someone else will. You can't be upset at Universities for paying that much - you'd have to be upset with Americans for loving their sports that much
December 18th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
Certainly a fair point. I'm also (oddly) just now realizing that he is the candidate this year. He is more sought after for any HC job (getting his name thrown around for Raiders, Bears, Jets, and Dolphins). How often is one guy sought after so heavily.
But still this is technically a public school with an amateur (haha) sports program. Again, wow- $8 million
December 18th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^
I get that. But this isn't an example of breaking "below the norm". This is hugely above the norm. It's above anyone else in football! I think it merits discussion. Remember, this would (by a huge margin) make him the highest paid state employee, and I will reiterate, way above the POTUM.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
The ideal situation is that this gets to the 29th and it leaks that Oakland has offered him $8.5 million a year. Beats our offer slightly money wise but if Harbaugh wants to come home I doubt half a million sways him either way. Then he comes back to Michigan and the NFL guys have no out in saying that our offer couldn't be matched by the NFL. They'd have to concede that yes, in fact, some people do enjoy college football.
December 18th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
I will guess that the NFL offers will never be made public unless Harbaugh publicly turns down Michigan. Harbaugh doesn't seem like the type that would care to play those games, and it would be bad for the NFL image.
My guess is that if/when Harbaugh chooses Michigan the narrative will be that Michigan overpaid and that the NFL was too smart to give him that kind of crazy money.
December 18th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
For a Bay area team to beat Michigans offer in compensation it would have to be $12M. State and Federal taxes coupled with the increased cost of living skews the net.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
Fuck the NFL. I'm so sick of all the pro-NFL people who say it's the greatest entity on Earth and no one would willingly leave it blablabla. NCAA is so unbelievably more entertaining than NFL and it isn't even close.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
Does anybody still watch ESPN or NFL news for insightful reporting?
December 18th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
Deleted double post
December 18th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
No, I just wait for them to report what Jay Glazer tweeted 45 minutes earlier as breaking news...
December 18th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
There may not be a bigger moron on the entire ESPN crew and that's saying something.
December 18th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
He didn't specify "no backstroke" in his swim lanes.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
December 18th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
Count on Rapoport, Schefter, et al, to report (based on "sources close to the coach/decision/too many airplane glue vapors ...") that either:
a) "Michigan pulled the offer" for some inherently illogical reason or other (likely tied to a decision timeline) or
b) Michigan was informed by Harbaugh's camp that he was turning down the offer.
None of this will come from either Michigan or Harbaugh directly. The b.s. will continue to walk. It will get worse (and deeper) before it gets better.
December 18th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
Has anyone else noticed that many die-hard NFL fans are starting to develop kind of the same pomous traits as the popular "analysts" and bloggers do? I can't tell you how many times I've encountered someone who worships all things NFL because it's "a superior game" because "college is just a bunch of boys. I don't want to see a team get beat 50-0." It just seems like this unfounded arrogance...maybe because they're awesome in fantasy football? Or maybe it's that alpha-male persona that the NFL likes to convey? Maybe I'm nit-picking...
But I will say, nothing makes me laugh more than PFTCommenter banter on Twitter, poking fun at the NFL types.
December 18th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
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December 18th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^
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